The Herald Sun today has a statewide poll from Redbridge Group, but I’m unclear if the newspaper commissioned it or if the pollster just provided it to them. If the 10.4% undecided are distributed according to who they are leaning towards, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with. The poll had a sample of 1181, but no field work dates are provided.
The big news on the electoral front is that the group voting tickets were published yesterday, which are available in the most digestible form from Antony Green, who says his calculators will “hopefully be published by mid-week”. My own take is that, aside from those I identify as the “main players” – Labor, the Coalition and the Greens – the myriad contenders can be grouped into three categories: the left; adopters of the Glenn Druery approach, who have the main players last or very close to it, on the principle that one small player is almost certain to win in any given region if they ignore their differences and preference each other; and a distinct network of right-wing and/or anti-lockdown parties who are directing preferences to each other, but taking a more clearly ideological approach than the Druery crowd as to who they have last or near-to-last.
The main players
Labor‘s tickets generally have small left-wing parties followed by the Greens, though here and there the Greens are also behind Shooters, Transport Matters and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. Behind the Coalition in all regions are Family First, Angry Victorians, the DLP, Health Australia, New Democrats, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy, the United Australia Party and One Nation. A theme that will emerge in how other parties are dealing with Labor is that a number have treated Labor unusually well in Northern Metropolitan region, perhaps have been persuaded that Labor can serve as a bulwark there against Fiona Patten and the Greens.
Coalition tickets have Labor last and punish no one for being too far to the right. One Nation are second or third on regional tickets, but behind United Australia, the DLP, Family First and the Freedom Party in metropolitan regions. The Greens have left-wing contenders plus Transport Matters consistently ahead of Labor, mostly centrists in the middle, the Coalition next along, and the obviously right-wing small parties along with the Companions and Pets Party towards the end. Interestingly, Angry Victorians are in every region one place higher than the Coalition.
The left
Legalise Cannabis leads with left-of-centre parties, with the Greens ahead of Labor everywhere but Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Angry Victorians are something of an exception to the rule, having been placed between fourth and seventh – ahead of the Coalition in all cases, the Greens in two (Northern Victoria and Western Victoria) and Labor in one (Western Victoria). After the Coalition comes a long tail of small parties mostly but not entirely of the right.
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party have left-of-centre parties at top in varying orders, with the Greens favoured over Labor everywhere except Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Animal Justice have left-wing parties at the top end of the tickets, with the Greens mostly but not exclusively ahead of Labor. Labor is largely followed by combinations of Sustainable Australia, Health Australia, Transport Matters and, oddly once again, Angry Victorians, followed by the Coalition, with mostly right-wing minor parties in the bottom half.
The order of Victorian Socialists tickets is left-wing minor parties, Labor, centrist minor parties, the Coalition and right-wing minor parties (the latter taken to include the Companions and Pets Party, for reasons that may become clearer shortly). The Freedom Party is last across the board.
The Glenn Druery approach
Angry Victorians and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party have the main players dead last, with Justice making an exception in Northern Metropolitan where Labor are second. Angry Victorians have the Coalition ahead of the Greens and Labor and tend to have smaller left-wing parties towards the end, with some exceptions. The Democratic Labour Party have left-of-centre minor parties as well as Labor and the Greens behind the Coalition, but otherwise front-load micro parties, particularly those of the right.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Health Australia Party both have small left-wing parties mostly sharing the last places with the major players, whereas Transport Matters have right-wing parties (mostly the United Australia Party, One Nation, the Freedom Party and the Family First) at the very end, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens just above. Both Health Australia and Transport Matters have made exceptions for Labor in Northern Metropolitan, respectively putting them second and third.
Despite their name, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party are scarcely less punitive against the Coalition (and the Greens) than Labor, with right-wing small parties mostly dominating the top end. New Democrats has the major players consistently low if not always last, excepting that the Greens are placed fairly high in Northern Metropolitan.
The anti-lockdown right
One Nation favours Angry Victorians, United Australia Party, Family First, Freedom Party, putting them in various orders ahead of the Coalition everywhere except Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria, where the Coalition are respectively second and third behind Angry Victorians. The United Australia Party has either the Coalition or One Nation second, followed in most cases by the Freedom Party and Family First, and then in various orders the Health Australia Party, Liberal Democrats, Shooters and Restore Democracy.
The order of Family First tickets consistently runs Freedom Party, DLP, One Nation, United Australia, Shooters, Liberal Democrats, Angry Victorians, Restore Democracy, Sustainable Australia and Health Australia Party, Coalition and Labor, followed by various small parties of the centre and left with the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Reason at the end. Freedom Party are also consistent across the regions, leading with Family First, One Nation, Angry Victorians, United Australia Party and Coalition. After that parties are placed in descending order by leftness, with the curious exception of Transport Matters being dead last behind Victorian Socialists.
Companions and Pets Party preferences are feeding straight into the Coalition in all eight regions, of which you can make what you will. Right-wing minor parties do very well after that, and Animal Justice and the Greens notably badly.
Bludgers,
There are some funny comments in this thread, based on vague-handwaving, as can be expected.
I have gone through the current betting odds on Sportsbet, on the assumption that professional agencies don’t like to lose money. Sometimes, of course, they get it wrong (e.g., late swing to the governing party in the Federal election of 2019), and odds may change over the next several days.
However, with current odds, the following changes are predicted. Note I have done a transfer of “abolished seats” to “new seats” where it is fairly clear (e.g., Point Cook to Altona). Really new seats are mentioned by name.
There isn’t much change at all. The Greens have done very well out of Liberal Party preferences (if the Libs preferenced according to ideology the Greens would be in serious danger of losing a seat). I guess Matthew Guy wants to empower the Greens I guess: Vote Liberal, get Greens! 😀
Anyway, here are the sober, “we don’t want to lose money”, results from Sportsbet.
Labor gain of new seats: Kalkallo, Laverton, Pakenham
Labor gain from Coalition: Rippon
Labor gain from Independents: Morwell
Labor loss of old seats: Burwood, Keysborough
Greens gain from Labor: Northcote, Richmond
Coalition gain from Labor: Bass, Hawthorn, Nepean
Coalition loss of old seats: Ferntree Gully
Independents to gain from Coalition: Caulfield, Kew
Party Totals
Labor -2 (53)
LNP -1 (26)
Greens +2 (5)
Independents +1 (4)
Close Races
Benambra. Coalition leads, close Independent.
Brighton. Coalition leads, close Independent.
Caulfield. Independent leads, close Coalition.
Glen Waverly. Coalition leads, close Labor.
Hastings. Coalition leads, close Labor.
Hawthorn. Coalition leads, close Independent.
Northcote. Greens leads, close Labor.
Pakenham. Labor leads, close Coalition.
Prahran. Greens leads, close Labor.
Richmond. Greens leads, close Labor.
Ripon. Labor leads, close Coalition.
“I have gone through the current betting odds on Sportsbet, on the assumption that professional agencies don’t like to lose money”
This is the correct assumption but the wrong understanding of where it leads.
Betting agencies do odds exclusively based on where the money is going. If the money is going to the wrong horse or the wrong election result, so do the odds.
In elections here, the odds pretty much entirely reflect public polling information and media reporting.
This is not like odds on pro wrestling events where almost inevitably the winner is given away by the odds thanks to insiders betting on their knowledge of the scripted result!
I think the result it has led you to is actually quite reasonable apart from my non enthusiasm for the chances of the independents gaining seats but it’s very uniform-swing and as we just saw at the Federal, a party can hold its most marginal seat like Bass but blow seats that should be outside the range. Swings rarely uniform.
Lev Lafayette says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 8:51 am
“I guess Matthew Guy wants to empower the Greens I guess: Vote Liberal, get Greens! ”
Yes, but the reason he wants to do that is simply to debilitate Labor’s position. The Liberals across the country have changed their old confrontational electoral stance with the Greens. In the past, the Libs preferenced the Greens below the ALP, consistent with their ideology. Now it’s all political convenience: The Greens winning ALP seats thanks to Liberal preferences debilitate the ALP and it also increases the tension between Greens and ALP…. all “good news” for the Liberals.
How much will that work at the coming Victoria election?… Probably not that much.
@alpo “Yes, but the reason he wants to do that is simply to debilitate Labor’s position.”
Yes, I agree, I was being a bit facetious. Also, to get Labor to spend additional resources in seats that they shouldn’t have to.
This won’t stop until Labor and Greens have a proper non-aggression pact, a little like the Liberals and Nationals.
Whilst a Labor-Greens non-aggression pact would be nice in theory, there does remain the reality that the two parties do exist for their own separate reasons, and those won’t always align.
Whereas the Nats are essentially now a fossil fuel lobby masquerading as a farmers party, without much obvious difference from the Libs.
Received a how to vote card from the nationals in Bass and they have placed ALP last out of 10 candidates,greens 9th and Libs 2nd.
The only candidate shown by party is number 1 of course.Too afraid to show they are putting all the rwnj before greens and Labor.
I have long suspected that Libs and nats are both running to try and garner the 2nd votes of either of them but to what end?
The Nat is a sitting Bass councilor and the Lib ex South Gippsland councilor and the son of a former sitting member with deep pockets who did very well for himself over the years.
The pundits keep assuming that after the redistribution that Bass will fall to the coalition,yet down the Wonthaggi-Inverloch end of the seat the ALP did all right in the previous 2018 election.Most of the ‘new money’ in Inverloch are retirees from the Pakenham and the south eastern suburbs of Ferntree Gully etc.
Likewise in Wonthaggi the population is expanding at a rapid rate with mainly young families forced out of the suburbs of southeast Melbourne.
How logical would it be if the public said nah to a first term sitting member who has managed to have the first stage of the Wonthaggi Hospital redevelopment finished ahead of time and confirmed that stage 2 and 3 will continue after the election.At the other end of the old electorate she is responsible for getting the wheels under the duplication of Kooweerup-Pakenham road started and also pushing for the removal of 3 level crossings through Pakenham.
I mean why would you suddenly decide to vote for a party who has no chance of taking government and just basically matches ALP promises and supporting RWNJ time wasters.
People well remember that the lobster guy was up to his ears as the previous Lib planning minister with the land rezoning swindle on Phillip island.
I don’t see a new member for Bass this time around.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/a-chequered-history-matthew-guy-s-most-controversial-decisions-20180903-p501gk.html
The coalition pretty much always stands against each other in non-Melbourne areas where they either don’t have the seat or the sitting member is retiring. Nationals are running in Bass this time because Libs lost the seat, and in Narracan where the Lib is retiring. Liberals are running in Mildura this time because Nats lost the seat, and in Euroa where the Nat is retiring. No real strategy to it, just an extra coalition candidate getting an opportunity to run. Both are also standing in Morwell and Shepparton for the second election in a row, as neither have those seats. I suspect the Nats will contest Benambra, South-West Coast, and Polwarth in 2026 if those seats leave the Libs this year. Nationals are not contesting the Bendigo or Ballarat seats though (they contested Bendigo East in 2018), probably because the ALP are too dominant there.
Grime
Likewise in Wonthaggi the population is expanding at a rapid rate with mainly young families forced out of the suburbs of southeast Melbourne.
—————————————————–
Wonthaggi has been a labor town for many years so its not evidence of demographic change.
I could Google it but I take from the above discussions Victoria is has a full preferential system? Optional Preferential destroyed the Tories having two parties in Queensland.
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 11:07 am
I could Google it but I take from the above discussions Victoria is has a full preferential system? Optional Preferential destroyed the Tories having two parties in Queensland.
————————–
Its full preferential in the lower house and some weird wonderful system in the upper house.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 11:12 am
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 11:07 am
I could Google it but I take from the above discussions Victoria is has a full preferential system? Optional Preferential destroyed the Tories having two parties in Queensland.
————————–
Its full preferential in the lower house and some weird wonderful system in the upper house.
中华人共和国
Thanks cobber. Muchly obliged.
The rule of thumb for the LNP three corner contests -is that they both run in seats in which neither is the incumbent, or one of their own is retiring. It is an unholy alliance, but a successful one. It’s why the Nats are over represented and the Greens are under represented.
My interest in the debate is when Labor and the Greens will be forced to take the same approach. The sooner the better (says a Greens member / former long term ALP member and former candidate who happily concedes a conflict of interest).
My tip is that the ALP will romp home in this election but will potentially have some difficulty holding majority government in 2026. Jacinta will probably be Premier, the (alleged) Liberals will have continued their moral/mortal decline. Greens and Independents will pick up the seats abandoned by the Libs. Jacinta may be be forced in to a grand progressive ‘coalition’ with a wide cross bench.
(Our petulant pickled purported pugnacious victim/Labor minority enthusiast will get his way in 2026, not in 10 days time! He still won’t be happy though because what he really wants is a Lobster Guy Gov.)
ABC pushing the “reputable pollsters” hung parliament trope on ABC radio Melbourne this morning. Congratulations Jeremy, despite my misgivings you are now a “reputable pollster”. Who knew?
If you are a moderate liberal and you look at your how to vote card I suspect you will be a little displeased to see the party of Menzies is preferencing the freedom racist cookers of all stripes and think Sheesh Kebab – where do I go now?
This election will go down in history as the Oxymoron election.
The Liberals are conservative and over run with RWNJs and religious extremists,
Labor are not as representative of the workers as they should be,
At least one union – firefighters is actively campaigning against the political wing of the union movement,
Health party are anti-vaxxers – therefore promoting misery and death, otherwise known as poor health!
Pets and companions are pro-horse and dog racing/animal cruelty for financial gain, and puppy farming – and oppose animal’s rights.
Freedom party want to lock up “others” and kill the population by following Trumpian edicts.
The Justice party have done deals with RWNJs – who argue for the opposite,
Labour DLP is a far right anti-democratic party, led by two ejected rejects from the major parties.
Family First hate gays and trans people – despite every extended family having at least one member of the LGBTIA+ community.
I concede my bias but at least the Greens’ name is not actively misleading.
Why do the parties just lie to us about who and what they represent? If they are so right, why not be upfront about what they represent. If you are right people will vote for you without being tricked in to doing so. For context the Pets and companions party have put Animal Justice dead last on their tickets.
Rant over – back to work!
MABWM says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 11:20 am
The rule of thumb for the LNP three corner contests -is that they both run in seats in which neither is the incumbent, or one of their own is retiring. It is an unholy alliance, but a successful one. It’s why the Nats are over represented and the Greens are under represented.
My interest in the debate is when Labor and the Greens will be forced to take the same approach. The sooner the better (says a Greens member / former long term ALP member and former candidate who happily concedes a conflict of interest).
My tip is that the ALP will romp home in this election but will potentially have some difficulty holding majority government in 2026. Jacinta will probably be Premier, the (alleged) Liberals will have continued their moral/mortal decline. Greens and Independents will pick up the seats abandoned by the Libs. Jacinta may be be forced in to a grand progressive ‘coalition’ with a wide cross bench.
(Our petulant pickled purported pugnacious victim/Labor minority enthusiast will get his way in 2026, not in 10 days time! He still won’t be happy though because what he really wants is a Lobster Guy Gov.)
ABC pushing the “reputable pollsters” hung parliament trope on ABC radio Melbourne this morning. Congratulations Jeremy, despite my misgivings you are now a “reputable pollster”. Who knew?
If you are a moderate liberal and you look at your how to vote card I suspect you will be a little displeased to see the party of Menzies is preferencing the freedom racist cookers of all stripes and think Sheesh Kebab – where do I go now?
This election will go down in history as the Oxymoron election.
The Liberals are conservative and over run with RWNJs and religious extremists,
Labor are not as representative of the workers as they should be,
At least one union – firefighters is actively campaigning against the political wing of the union movement,
Health party are anti-vaxxers – therefore promoting misery and death, otherwise known as poor health!
Pets and companions are pro-horse and dog racing/animal cruelty for financial gain, and puppy farming – and oppose animal’s rights.
Freedom party want to lock up “others” and kill the population by following Trumpian edicts.
The Justice party have done deals with RWNJs – who argue for the opposite,
Labour DLP is a far right anti-democratic party, led by two ejected rejects from the major parties.
Family First hate gays and trans people – despite every extended family having at least one member of the LGBTIA+ community.
I concede my bias but at least the Greens’ name is not actively misleading.
Why do the parties just lie to us about who and what they represent? If they are so right, why not be upfront about what they represent. If you are right people will vote for you without being tricked in to doing so. For context the Pets and companions party have put Animal Justice dead last on their tickets.
Rant over – back to work!
中华人民共和国
I don’t mind a good rant cobber – as long as your honest which you are. Good on you. We all got our own stripes. I still think the “Angry Victorians Party” will have a pretty sour post election knees up!
MABWM says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 11:20
——————
And as others have pointed out, even the Sack Dan Andrews Party has a misleading name in that in at least some upper house districts they have issued split tickets, meaning half of their preferences will go to… the Dan Andrews Party
And given events in Benambra, it should be clarified that “freedom” in Freedom Party” means the freedom to beat up representatives of other political parties if the free expression of their political views is not to your liking. Some freedoms are not ok.
Mexicanbeemer @ #260 Wednesday, November 16th, 2022 – 11:12 am
Hardly wonderful,weird yes 😉
Good post MABWM.
Interestingly I looked up that ‘Under Fire’ website after seeing an ad on TV. They have a scorecard of each party’s policies relating to their demands, and have both Labor AND Liberal equally with an X next to every category.
I’m pretty sure the UFU wouldn’t want a Liberal government any more than Labor based on that – and in fact probably less so given the Liberal Party generally oppose them where there’s ever conflict between the UFU and CFA. So it’s odd that their ads only specifically target Labor, almost implying that they support the Liberals (many viewers would only see anti-Labor as equalling pro-Liberal), when the scorecard on their website actually promotes the Greens, Reason & Victorian Socialists among others.
MABWM, nothing wrong with a good rant. Helps me immensely at times. And if you follow politics, you’ll need a good rant more often than not. l hope your party and the party l voted for yesterday in the electorate of Footscray do extremely well. Greens do a lot for the environment. Labor and Coalition for native logging, duck shooting, gas exploration near twelve apostles etc etc.
Greens care about the constituency unlike Labor/Liberal who are pro developers. Good luck to the Greens, hopefully they win at least six lower and six upper house seats. Think your prediction of minority Labor coming 26th November and not in four years time.
Jeremy
‘ Greens do a lot for the environment.’
Not really. Wish they did.
Missing in action when it comes to the real fights on the ground. For example, the government is running the anti-brumby campaign basically by itself.
Upnorth
I still think the “Angry Victorians Party” will have a pretty sour post election knees up!
My money is on them still being very angry! So they can continue on as a party.
If Labor lost government they’d have to change their name.
As for the Liberals preferencing the Greens – it may be clever in the short term but if they help make the Greens stronger with more MPs the Greens may some time start coming for more of their seats and winning as happened in Brisbane at the last Federal election.
MABWM
My pet hate is groups on upper house ballots (seems to happen in the Senate a bit) who don’t even put up a name on top. I investigated some of them last time and there some some complete crazies. I wish they had had the guts to declare themselves “Anti-Vax” or “Anti-immigrant” or whatever. I think I put these groups last just because of that. Petulant I know!
MAWBM: “ABC pushing the “reputable pollsters” hung parliament trope on ABC radio Melbourne this morning. “
“reputable pollsters” presumably defined as those projecting said hung parliament.
A variant of the “no true Scotsman” fallacy.
Grime
That Bass result in 2018 was fantastic, especially for the people of Wonthaggi who had supported Labor for years in vain in that electorate. I am very much hoping Jordan wins again.
Animal Justice will preference Greens above ALP in 85/88 seats. Ripon, Polwarth, and Melton are the exceptions. Independents and minors are often placed ahead of the Greens.
““In order to make America great and glorious again, I tonight am announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” Trump said.”
Trump has announced his candidacy for the 2024 GOP nomination for the presidential race…
The Republican Civil War has begun!… The Grey DeSantis army against the Red Trump MAGA Army…. Enjoy the view….
——
P.S. The clash between ALP and Coalition in Victoria will look like a friendly game of croquet in comparison…
Just pre-polled in Brighton.
Disappointingly, one elderly lady with no hype handing out ballot papers for Labor and too far from main entrance!
I got the vibe a couple of weeks ago that Labor was not having a dip even though they went close last election. The huge betting market price $12 Labor (Louise Crawford) was a give away also.
They virtually have NO signage c/f with Newbury everywhere . I just drove past 2 new large display trucks sitting near crossroads nearby with Newbury billboards and a paid driver sitting in cabin of each. He has a very wealthy donor whom has spent $100,000’s in last couple of months.
In the polling queue in front of me I observed Liberal how to vote material in a majority of hands if that’s a micro poll.
Newbury smirking was at the pre-poll with a biggish crew etc.
10 days out from election day, and with early voting having started already, here are my thoughts & predictions.
Firstly, I’ll rattle off the seats I consider to be VERY SAFE HOLDS (>99% certain).
COALITION (9):
Murray Plains (NAT), Lowan (NAT), Gippsland East (NAT), Ovens Valley (NAT), Gippsland South (NAT), Euroa (NAT), Narracan, Malvern, Rowville.
LABOR (31):
Thomastown, Kororoit, Broadmeadows, Mill Park, Laverton, Dandenong, St Albans, Greenvale, Kalkallo, Lara, Bendigo West, Sydenham, Tarneit, Yan Yean, Bundoora, Oakleigh, Essendon, Clarinda, Sunbury, Mordialloc, Niddrie, Macedon, Ivanhoe, Bendigo East, Carrum, Bentleigh, Wendouree, Geelong, Frankston, Eureka, Eltham.
Now I’ll move onto what I consider VERY LIKELY HOLDS (>90% chance).
COALITION (2):
Bulleen, Mornington.
LABOR (11):
Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Preston, Williamstown, Mulgrave, Albert Park, Monbulk, Bellarine, Narre Warren South, Narre Warren North, Cranbourne.
CROSSBENCH (3):
Prahran (GRN), Melbourne (GRN), Brunswick (GRN).
So at this point, if I’m to tally up the seats that I consider either VERY SAFE or VERY LIKELY holds (at least a 90% chance) I end up with 42 ALP, 11 Coalition and 3 Greens which leaves a total of 32 seats which I consider to be at least somewhat competitive.
For Labor to retain a majority government, they only need to win 3 out of those 32 remaining contests.
Of them, I think the following 13 have a strong lean to one party (>70% chance):
LIKELY COALITION (5):
Warrandyte, Berwick, Pakenham (GAIN), Nepean (GAIN), Hastings (GAIN).
LIKELY LABOR (5):
Point Cook, Werribee, Box Hill, Ashwood, South Barwon.
LIKELY CROSSBENCH (3):
Richmond (GRN – GAIN), Northcote (GRN – GAIN), Mildura (IND).
So now after taking into account all the results I think have at least a 70% likelihood, we’re at:
47 ALP (Majority already)
16 Coalition
6 Crossbench (5 GRN, 1 IND)
….with still 19 competitive seats remaining.
Of those 19, I would break down their lean as follows (based on my own prediction only):
LEANING COALITION (6):
Evelyn, Eildon, Croydon, Bass, South-West Coast, Polwarth.
LEANING LABOR (4):
Ringwood, Glen Waverley (GAIN), Morwell, Caulfield.
LEANING CROSSBENCH (2):
Kew (GAIN), Shepparton.
Genuine toss-up that I can’t predict (7):
Hawthorn (IND or ALP v LIB), Bayswater, Brighton (ALP v LIB), Sandringham (ALP v LIB), Melton (IND v ALP), Ripon, Benambra (LIB v IND).
So in summary, counting my “leans” to the party I am leaning towards and the “toss-ups” to both (or all) competitive parties, I’d predict the following range of seats for each:
ALP – Between 51 to 57 seats
Coalition – Between 22 to 28 seats
Greens – 5 seats
Independents – Between 3 to 6 seats
A mobile billboard just sighted cruising up the Nepean Hwy, featuring a large ogre like image of Dan Andrews, informed me that he supports child gender transition without parental consent (!) What you do when terror of African gangs no longer cuts it I guess. No Liberal branding- apparently an astroturfing exercise.
@Trent – I’ve read your assessment.
I think you have completely and utterly nailed it with only a couple of exceptions.
1) Mulgrave is a certain ALP seat.
2) The Melton confusion is a complete and utter beat up! It is a lock for Labor. The only respected sources that say otherwise are Murdoch, Costello, Samaras and Jeremy!
I’m pretty sure 51-57 seats is a minority government- innit?
I think (and I admit, hope) the LNP will in fact lose a few more seats.
I almost feel sorry for Matthew Guy, then I don’t.
The right wingers in Australia importing their thinking from the MAGA fuckwits is a gift to the progressive side of politics in Australia. That shit only plays to the converted.
Even though the media made little of Morrison’s gaffe on that very topic of gender transition from children, apparently confusing American propaganda for the actual law in Australia, it demonstrated the mentality of the man to anyone paying attention.
Ah, the Angry Victorians!
I forgot them. But they are honest. They are angry and presumably Victorians.
They are the one exception to the Oxymoron parties rule and form a unomvirate of Onomatopoeic parties. You can’t be an axis on your own, though that lot would give it a red hot go.
I guess they couldn’t really call themselves the Dumb Knuts – could they?
@MABWM I pretty much agree.
To be honest there’s very little difference between my ‘VERY SAFE’ and ‘VERY LIKELY’ categories other than the ‘VERY SAFE’ ones being seats I don’t even consider to have any chance whatsoever of a surprise result or anybody else even having an outside chance. In most of the ‘VERY LIKELY’ seats – like Mulgrave – my prediction still isn’t far off that but there’ll just be a bit less of a “Where did that come from?” factor if the tiny, tiny chance of an upset does occur.
I mostly agree with Melton too. Honestly I’d put it alongside Brighton & Sandringham as seats that I still do think lean more Labor but I played it safe and listed them as toss ups, although Dr John’s last post has me a little less optimistic about Brighton.
As my friend and fellow reputable pollster, Jeremy likes to say – election night will be fascinating.
Where he and I part ways is I am a wowserish teetotaller AND I think it will be fascinating watching the LNP completely disintegrate (in the true sense of the word).
Antony Green will call Melton for Labor at 6.37pm.
Trent says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 3:
To be honest there’s very little difference between my ‘VERY SAFE’ and ‘VERY LIKELY’ categories other than the ‘VERY SAFE’ ones being seats I don’t even consider to have any chance whatsoever of a surprise result or anybody else even having an outside chance. In most of the ‘VERY LIKELY’ seats – like Mulgrave – my prediction still isn’t far off that but there’ll just be a bit less of a “Where did that come from?” factor if the tiny, tiny chance of an upset does
———-
Looks about right. I’d be more surprised if Mulgrave was lost though (and not just because of its local member) than the Frankston line seats (Bentleigh, Mordi, Carrum and Frankston). They are on big margins now – the strongest margins the ALP has ever held them – but they are traditionally marginal seats, and were all held by the Liberals between 2010-2014. I’d be very surprised if any of them changed hands this time, but less so than for Mulgrave. I don’t think they are as safe as they look and I’d mentally notate them as “very likely” wins by the ALP rather than “very safe“.
There’s a vocal anti Skyrail campaign in Mordialloc for example (and the local Liberals have climbed aboard that bandwagon). The screeching and outrage was originally focussed on the Parkdale level crossing removal, but just a few weeks ago elevated rail solutions were also announced for Mordialloc and Aspendale. (The timing was a bit refreshing actually; if I’d been Tim Richardson, the local Mordialloc MLA , from the point of view of political self interest, I’d have been hoping that announcement would have been deferred until after the election. It appears some decisions are made independently of politics.)
Vocal campaigns often aren’t broad based and most people in the electorate probably don’t care about the Skyrail bogey (and some like me much prefer elevated rail). But if that issue had been running in 2018 when the ALP was on a 2% margin, I wouldn’t be dismissing it as a political nothingburger.
Max you make a good point about the Frankston line / Sandbelt seats.
Due to a realigning of Labor & Liberal geographical strength I think the closer to the city, the safer they will remain for Labor.
For example, I think Labor’s margins will be reduced in Carrum and Frankston, whereas I think Nick Staikos will preserve or possibly even improve his large margin in Bentleigh.
Mordialloc probably fits somewhere in between, but remember all the vocal Skyrail opposition in Murrumbeena & Hughesdale last time, but Labor got a double-digit swing in Oakleigh (including the polling places near those stations!) so I think the majority quietly approve of Skyrail, and only the most directly impacted locals oppose it and make a lot of noise, but it’s still a net-positive overall.
Really the only reason I listed Mulgrave as a little less certain than the sandbelt is because the presence of an IND can be a little more unpredictable than a standard Labor v Liberal contest; ie. If the Liberals tank and the dodgy caterer ends up beating them into the 2CP count, Liberal preferences will make an ALP v IND contest a lot closer than an ALP v LIB contest would have been.
That said… I still firmly believe Andrews will be close to a 50% primary vote anyway so preferences will be irrelevant and it will be an easy Labor win despite all the media hype.
I’m wondering if there is an orchestrated R-W campaign to create disruptions at polling booths. Yesterday the Labor volunteer hospitalised from an attack in Wodonga and today this provocation.
@Trent
Genuine toss-up that I can’t predict (7):
Hawthorn (IND or ALP v LIB), Bayswater, Brighton (ALP v LIB), Sandringham (ALP v LIB), Melton (IND v ALP), Ripon, Benambra (LIB v IND).
______________________________
I would put Ripon firmly in the ALP gain column given; how marginal the result was last time ~10 votes to the LNP, the very favourable redistribution that took away Stawell and other LNP strongholds and brought in bits of Creswick and Ballarat, the invisible nature of the incumbent Lousie ‘0.05’ Staley and no credible independent standing.
More HTVs are on the VEC website
Angela Carr (Geelong) and Sarah Hathway (Lara) preferenced Greens second
Wayne Rigg (Ripon) preferenced ALP second
Larry Zhao (Point Cook) preferenced Greens fourth and ahead of the majors
Glenn Milne (Mildura) preferenced the Coalition candidates second and third and Greens last
Sonia Brymer (Mildura) preferenced Family First second and Ali Cupper last
James Laurie (Bendigo East) preferenced ALP last
Suzanna Sheed (Shepparton) has separate HTVs for voting ALP or Coalition second
The very late entering Meca Ho (Richmond) has ALP second and Greens last
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party HTV in Cranbourne is fascinating. 1 DHJP, 2 DLP, 3 ALP, 4th LIB, 5 IND, 6 AJP, 7 GRN, 8 FFV, 9 FPV
Johanna Skelton (Monbulk) did not give preferences
Victorian Trades Hall Council are running HTVs in some areas with only instructions to put the Liberals last. I can’t help but notice that its authorized by L. Hilakari, same last name as ALP candidate for Point Cook.
Talk about Scum bags and bottom of the pond dwellers.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-16/liberals-preference-woman-who-called-for-daniel-andrews-hanged/101660760
Rebekah Spelman is not the only one. Liberals also preferenced Craig Cole (IND) in Monbulk over the ALP. Cole is affiliated with Riccardo Bosi and also threatened to shoot places up and called to hang Dan. 5,990 people in Aston gave Ms. Spelman their vote. A further 3,455 people in Casey decided Craig was their man.
I’m a union member and often get emails from Luke Hilakari.
When I first saw that was also the Point Cook candidate’s surname, I did wonder if they’re related or not.
Trent, Eureka and Yan Yean as very safe holds???
I needed a good laugh. Thanks Trent.
@Trent and @Justin
Yes, they’re brothers. Surname is from Finland.
You only have to look at Matthew Hilakari to know he is the brother of Luke, they look practically identical. Luke as you would expect of a prominent trade unionist is also openly a Labor member and was a Labor political staffer before the Victorian Trades Hall Council job. What of it?
Trent. They brothers. And the Labor candidate is parachuted in. The West hate that, reinforces the view that they get used. Point Cook gone. Werribee close to being gone also. See the footage of the parachuted Pallas. I think he knows his time is up. Williamstown so much nicer than Werribee. FOWLER??? ALP just doesn’t learn.
Thanks Expat, I figured they’d probably be brothers or something since it’s not a common surname.
Nothing of it really Arky, it was just general curiosity on my part! Nothing more than seeing the name Hilakari and thinking “Oh I wonder if he’s related to Luke!” Wasn’t implying anything negative at all, especially as a union member myself.
Is there a prevalence of of strong winds blowing across Victoria at the moment ?
The legislative council of Victoria after the election on the 26th November will most likely comprise 16 from the Labor Party and 10 from the LNP (if their vote holds up).
The remainder will be taken up by a mixed bag of sweet and sour depending on your preference.
Any effort to mop up a sizeable number of the remainders will need the wisdom of Solomon and a degree of luck.
Labor should be able to entice enough support on enough issues to be able to effectively control the Legislative Council and together with their expected majority in the Legislative assembly, will govern without much trouble.
The current and available polling suggests a status quo !
There exists no indication of an unexpected change between now and the election.
The final “make-up” of the Legislative council is an unknown and will not be known without a considerable forensic examination of the “dogs breakfast’ until counting is finalised.
Good luck with pissing into the wind!
Trent @ #294 Wednesday, November 16th, 2022 – 4:50 pm
Looks to be a good bloke to have around.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/trade-unions-the-new-broom-in-the-hall-20141211-124vdg.html
Plenty of Shitfuckery going on by the sound of it.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/early-voting-shenanigans-as-complaints-swirl-over-how-to-vote-cards-20221116-p5byof.html
Meanwhile in Hawthorn and Kew.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/teals-in-hawthorn-and-kew-threatened-with-jail-over-how-to-vote-cards-20221116-p5byv7.html
From the article – Guy: Not my job, mate.
@Grime 5:30pm: Asher Judah is a real slime ball.
He ran in Bentleigh last time and his campaign was repugnant. He was the candidate I was most hoping received a thumping on election night, and was thrilled that he did. Hope it’s a repeat and Ashwood voters are as repulsed by him as Bentleigh voters were.