The post-budget Newspoll finds Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 at the previous poll eight weeks ago. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by one to 38% and the Coalition by four to 35%. All other players are down: the Greens by two to 11%, One Nation by one to 6%, the United Australia Party by one to 1% and all others by one to 9%. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister has slipped from 61-22 to 54-27, and he is down two on approval to 59% and up four on disapproval to 33%. Peter Dutton is up on both approval and disapproval, respectively by four points to 39% and three points to 46%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1500.
The poll also includes the same suite of questions on response to the budget that Newspoll has been posing since the late 1980s, which you can read about here – I’ll have more to say about those later. Note also the other new posts below this one – my own lengthy compendium of New South Wales state election news, and Adrian Beaumont’s coverage of Brazil’s presidential election and other international electoral events.
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now there is a Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, with stronger results for Labor: their primary vote is unchanged on the poll three weeks ago at 39%, with the Coalition up two to 32%, the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation down one to 4%, the United Australia Party down two to 1%, independents down one to 8% and others up one to 3%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton by 53-19 as preferred prime minister, in from 55-17 three weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611.
The budget was rated good for “the country as a whole” by 44% and for “me and my household” by 28%, compared with 50% and 40% respectively for the March budget – it’s not clear how many of the remainder particularly rated it as bad. Four options for action on power prices all received strong support: 79% for price caps, 59% for taxpayer subsidies for those on low incomes, 64% for heavily subsidising home solar power and 67% for reserving gas for the local market, with 3%, 14%, 11% and 4% respectively opposed. Thirty-six per cent considered Labor had broken promises to “cut power bills and get wages moving”, with 12% disagreeing and 53% either undecided or considering it too early to say.
UPDATE (Newspoll budget response): For the questions Newspoll asks after every budget, an even 29% rated it both good and bad for the economy, but 47% rated it negative for personal impact compared with only 12% for positive. Thirty-four per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job, with 48% disagreeing. Another question gauged the extent to which respondents felt the budget properly balanced the cost of living and the budget deficit: 6% felt it put too much emphasis on the former, 25% too much emphasis on the latter, 23% felt it struck the right balance and 31% felt it didn’t do enough for either.
This marks the thirty-sixth budget of which Newspoll has asked essentially the same set of questions going back to 1988. The results are the sixth worst for personal impact and the ninth worst for economic impact, although it rates in the middle of the pack on the question of whether the opposition would have done better. The latter point is illustrated by the first of the charts below, which records Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. The second chart illustrates the correlation between positive results on personal and economic impact. In landing right on the trendline, this shows no particular sense that the budget favoured either economic concerns or personal finances relative to its somewhat negative reception overall.
As Keating said, he had lined up a mutual defence pact with Indonesia, the most populous Muslim nation on the globe, just north of us, and then what happened ?….. the cardigan got elected.
AOC is having fun with Elon on Twitter. Entertaining.
eg
ItzaDream @ #1263 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 10:03 am
Thank you much. It’s available at our local library. I’m looking forward to picking it up.
Late Riser @ #1303 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 12:25 pm
His comebacks are so lame. I hope it continues back and forth.
ItzaDream @ #1243 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 10:39 am
I like you Itza – and yes I have grown to intensely dislike Labor and their stooges for being so pathetically weak as well as their primary allegiance being to their donors.
There should be no doubts about intent and aims of the L/NP. They are genuine scoundrels out to screw the public for the benefit of themselves and their mates. Every act of Govt must be Lib-proofed, clearly.
Rex @1:07pm, the only way to 100% Lib-proof a law is for everyone to vote Labor to keep them out.
I am increasingly of the view that the c@tmomma is in fact an active troll. Trollc@t.
Fresh from an admission that she had not even read the article she excoriated ven, myself and Nath about, the trollc@t claims she is in fact the victim. A common refrain.
As I said, at least at her branch meetings, someone has to second her motions before they get seen. Alas here we are not so lucky.
This just gets worse.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/03/zachary-rolfe-nt-northern-territory-police-officer-bragged-about-injuring-innocent-man-kumanjayi-walker-inquest-told
From https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-03/khakiv-occupation-of-ukraine-foreign-correspondent/101597260:
“On a mild Saturday morning in May, Anatolii Garagatyi woke early and headed into his back garden.
On a normal weekend, the 70-year-old might have been thinking about a relaxing spot of fishing, but instead he was filled with a deep sense of unease.
Russian forces had recently occupied his village in the Kharkiv region of eastern Ukraine and he was worried they would soon come for him.
“Something made me go outside,” he says. “I went out and was standing there when I heard the gate slam.”
The amateur filmmaker had taken video of Russian tanks arriving near his village and uploaded it to his YouTube channel.
He knew it was a seditious act in the eyes of the occupiers.
Hearing voices approaching, he rushed to hide behind a wood pile in his barn, but a short time later he was found.
“There were eight Russian soldiers,” he says. “I noticed they had my video camera, which my wife was forced to give them. They beat me and took me to the garage of the village council.”
After about five hours, a man arrived to interrogate Garagatyi and the torture tools were brought out.
“They connected an electric current to my feet and they started torturing me with electric shocks,” he says.
“When they did it for the third time, I fainted. I realised I was not able to bear it anymore.”
After being tortured, Garagatyi admitted he had spoken to a nameless Ukrainian army officer who had called him and asked what direction the tanks were heading.
Things would only get worse after his confession. “They put a sack on my head and beat me, and took me to Balakliya police station.”
He would be held there and tortured over the next 100 days.”
=============================================================================
Multiply this outrage by the thousands (tens of thousands?) of such victims of Russian torture in this heinous invasion of theirs. Think about just how much injustice you need to airily breeze past whenever anyone suggests that ending Russia’s invasion earlier and on its terms is worth a bit of unaddressed injustice to Ukraine.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/family-explores-possible-legal-options-over-2013-andrews-crash-20221103-p5bv6f.html
Age has picked this up now. Also, of course, 3AW as well as the Herald Sun
WTF can the WA Police Commissioner have meant by this blindingly stupid comment? Too much of Australia remains backward on these issues, still policing frontiers in their minds.
https://amp.smh.com.au/national/if-walking-home-from-school-with-his-mates-is-the-wrong-place-where-is-the-right-place-20221101-p5bujm.html
From the same article as above, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-03/khakiv-occupation-of-ukraine-foreign-correspondent/101597260:
“Reznikov says he is not surprised by revelations of torture chambers in the Kharkiv region and other territories that have been liberated.
“I saw it before,” he says. “I saw it in the Chernihiv district when I was with my military colleagues after the liberation and I saw it in the villages near Chernihiv.”
He describes Russia as a “war crimes country” and says that the perpetrators must be held accountable for their relentless attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population through shelling, torture and sexual assault.
“We can call it Nuremberg 2, but we have to do it in Kharkiv or in Mariupol or in Izyum, for example. It doesn’t matter, but we have to do it,” he says.
“We have a case with murderers, looters and rapists, not with a normal civilised army. It’s a terrorist country.
“And we would like to get a political decision from all parliaments, like from Australia, that you recognise [Russia] as a country who sponsored terrorism.”
============================================================================
Whatever the terms ultimately agreed to resolve this war, amnesty for Putin and his Russian war crimes accomplices cannot be among them.
laughtong @ #1312 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 1:22 pm
Cookers out to scam some taxpayer money at an opportune time.
“So maybe this will lead to some kind of true reckoning. Maybe the alleged murder of an Indigenous child as he was walking home from school in Perth’s outer suburbs will give us some exigent knowledge of who we actually are, of what a settler-colonial society is capable of, and why. Maybe this greater clarity from media and politicians will bring about some kind of change.” https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/11/03/cassius-turvey-death-vigil
All state/territory Govts need to address their police force entry requirements.
Clearly some terrible types are slipping in through the cracks.
Macarthur says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 1:25 pm
…
Whatever the terms ultimately agreed to resolve this war, amnesty for Putin and his Russian war crimes accomplices cannot be among them.’
————————————————
De facto, this is essentially a call for there to be only one result: total war victory for Ukraine.
Angus Scott, counsel assisting is making quite a few small errors in referencing documents, etc, etc, etc.
From https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-2:
“Russian occupation officials continued measures to forcibly evacuate residents of Kherson Oblast on November 2.”…
“Russian forces exploited recent evacuation and “nationalization” measures to engage in widespread looting in Russian-occupied territories on November 2. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 2 that Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are looting Ukrainian firms on an industrial scale. The Resistance Center reported that Russian occupation officials in Melitopol embezzled money from firms in the city and looted equipment from local banks under the guise of nationalization measures. The Resistance Center also reported that Russian forces are looting equipment and appliances from recreation centers in Kyryllivka, Zaporizhia Oblast under the guise of nationalizing Ukrainian-owned businesses. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevych reported that Russian occupation officials looted equipment from a garment company in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian sources reported on November 2 that Russian forces are engaging in widespread looting of property left by forcibly evacuated residents from Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian forces are also using the homes of forcibly evacuated residents in Kherson Oblast to house military personnel. Russian forces will likely increasingly engage in looting and other violations of property rights as evacuation and nationalization measures continue in Russian-occupied territories.”…
“Russian and occupation officials continue to illegally deport Ukrainian children with the intent to commit crimes that may constitute an act of genocide as of November 2. The Ukrainian government portal Children of War reported that as of November 2 Russian officials have deported almost 10,000 Ukrainian Children to the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children is a concerted Russian effort to destroy a whole stratum of the Ukrainian population and thus the Ukrainian people as an ethnic unit. This reporting from the Ukrainian Resistance Center matches previous ISW assessments that the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation likely amounts to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign as well as apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.”
=============================================================================
Genocide.
Boerwar @ Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 1:29 pm:
“De facto, this is essentially a call for there to be only one result: total war victory for Ukraine.”
=======================================================================
Yes. Do you agree?
Keeling is a competent witness.
Boerwar
Scott very much lacks the precision of Greggery.
‘Macarthur says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 1:32 pm
Boerwar @ Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 1:29 pm:
“De facto, this is essentially a call for there to be only one result: total war victory for Ukraine.”
=======================================================================
Yes. Do you agree?’
—————————————-
I am conflicted. On the one hand it would be nice to see Putin and Russia’s lesser war criminals hang for their war crimes.
On the other hand, to achieve this result depends on total war victory by Ukraine. My judgement is that this is unlikely.
This leads to the likelihood of either a simple cease fire on lines held at the time a cease fire is agreed or a comprehensive negotiated outcome.
If the latter, then Putin will not sign anything that requires Russian war criminals to be brought to justice. To reach a comprehensive negotiated outcome would, in the interim, necessitate huge sacrifices in deaths, woundings, PTSD, and economic destruction.
Accepting the latter as a necessary price to pay is not my call to make, IMHO.
Other than that I support Australia continuing to provide moral and practical support to Ukraine.
BK
Yep.
Holmes’ intervention is, once again, deadly. Draft advice is still legal advice!
BK, BW:
Loved the hands over the eyes analogy
Boerwar @ Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 1:40 pm”
“I am conflicted. On the one hand it would be nice to see Putin and Russia’s lesser war criminals hang for their war crimes.
On the other hand, to achieve this result depends on total war victory by Ukraine. My judgement is that this is unlikely.
This leads to the likelihood of either a simple cease fire on lines held at the time a cease fire is agreed or a comprehensive negotiated outcome.
If the latter, then Putin will not sign anything that requires Russian war criminals to be brought to justice. To reach a comprehensive negotiated outcome would, in the interim, necessitate huge sacrifices in deaths, woundings, PTSD, and economic destruction.
Accepting the latter as a necessary price to pay is not my call to make, IMHO.
Other than that I support Australia continuing to provide moral and practical support to Ukraine.”
=============================================================================
I think you and I differ in two respects here:
1) I am more optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of crippling Russia’s military assets, with US/NATO/EU help;
2) I doubt that any “comprehensive negotiated outcome” that Putin would accept, would be seen by Putin as anything more than an opportunity for his Russia to catch breath, rearm itself, and then launch fresh atrocities against Ukraine (and maybe others) in the not-too-distant future. So, I don’t think cutting Ukraine’s resistance short now will necessarily spare more lives in the long run. Whereas, you appear to place more faith in the durability of said “comprehensive negotiated outcome”.
Do you agree that this is how we differ on this conflict?
BL
Holmes’s interventions are usually potentially lethal.
Rex Douglassays:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 1:25 pm
Cookers out to scam some taxpayer money at an opportune time.
_____________________
Good on him..
Sounds like it was a pretty pissweak police investigation.
BK
Indeed.
A Treasury working party, formed under then-treasurer Josh Frydenberg in late 2018 but put on hold during the COVID-19 pandemic, has been revived to consider transfer pricing of gas under the PRRT system. It is explicitly looking at how extreme profits are taxed during periods of high prices.
Didn’t Cash say the other day that the interim report had been delivered ( before the election) & that Labor hadn’t read it.. is Cash being full of it again?
If it’s been on hold since 2018 maybe someone should let Cash know.
Taylormade @ #1330 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 1:50 pm
It’s your money he’s trying to scam, not Dan’s.
macarthur
I would take the first point a step further and ask this question. Does total military victory for Ukraine involve over running Russia or involve expelling Russia from pre 1914 Ukraine borders?
If the latter then the Putin regime would continue.
I agree that we have a different estimate of the probability of being able to comprehensively defeat Russia through the destruction of its military. (I say this noting that I have made big errors of judgement on this previously.)
I place zero confidence in Putin’s words and signature on anything. My view is that Putin would regard anything and everything as interim.
Rex Douglas @ #1331 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 1:59 pm
It is now almost 10 years ago. He got a payout and was not meant to speak more about this.
Very opportune timing for the Libs and the Murdochcracy that initially raised it this morning.
Extremely hard to set aside an agreement on a settlement of a compensation claim which would have been approved by a court at the time if the victim was under 18.
Boerwar @ #1317 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 12:59 pm
Who would issue such an amnesty?
There would be some option where amnesty is not provided but perpetrators like Putin can feel secure in never being tried (unless Russia hand him over – eg Milosevic). If the UN got around to issuing arrest warrants and serving them on every UN member nation, Putin could send underlings to the G20 etc.
fwiw, when president, Trump authorised travel and financial sanctions on members of the ICC and their families wrt investigations re Afghanistan.
Boerwar, I think “total victory” for Ukraine involves only the expulsion of Russian military presence and political control from all of Ukraine’s 1991-2014 territory, not necessarily any ground incursions into legitimate Russian territory. I do think it requires the elimination of Russian military bases, and the exclusion of its military assets, within a zone of Russian territory at least up to about 50 km from its borders with Ukraine, plus a commitment from Belarus to never allow Russian troops into its territory. I also think it requires further degradation of Russia’s military assets, to a degree at least as great again as has already occurred.
More on the Pelosi assault, for anyone interested, and for Mr Musk. I couldn’t get my head around that you could just break a glass door and get into the Pelosi’s. It turns out there is some special security, but she was away, and so was security.
Anyway, here’s what happened, supposedly well documented now, from all sides.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/how-political-violence-came-to-the-pelosi-house?
The article is really about political extremes and its consequences.
So the Vic loonie nutjob parasites in an act of utter desperation have convinced someone to revisit a car accident they had with Dan’s wife 9 years ago.
what pathetic floggers they are .
we know we are going to lose badly , so as payback we will attack your wife.
how much more vile can they get.
A Mark Magowan result is needed.
“In the end, Vladimir Putin backed down.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/02/grain-deal-u-turn-offers-lesson-in-calling-vladimir-putin-bluff
Cat:
Regarding Ven inviting wranslide & myself to have a whack at unions. I’ve found over the years this blog to be populated by many interesting people full of experiences & knowledge from which I can learn many things & wouldn’t contemplate pitting my ignorance on subjects that they’re obviously more expert in. I’ve been a trade unionist for 45 years &Labor party member. You imply I’m anti UNION,! Let me ask you a question, which trade Union have you been a member of, how many strikes, picket lines have you stood in how many representations have you made to the Fairwork Commission ? My commitment to Unions is not based on middle class leftist thought bubbles but on actions, how about yours
Problem with driving a Volvo is you end up as a Volvo driver.
‘Macarthur says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 2:09 pm
Boerwar, I think “total victory” for Ukraine involves only the expulsion of Russian military presence and political control from all of Ukraine’s 1991-2014 territory, not necessarily any ground incursions into legitimate Russian territory. I do think it requires the elimination of Russian military bases, and the exclusion of its military assets, within a zone of Russian territory at least up to about 50 km from its borders with Ukraine, plus a commitment from Belarus to never allow Russian troops into its territory. I also think it requires further degradation of Russia’s military assets, to a degree at least as great again as has already occurred.’
————————————————-
The problem with this version is that Russia could, and probably would, continue to fight. For example, Russia could continue to lob missiles into Ukraine.
‘ItzaDream says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 2:48 pm
“In the end, Vladimir Putin backed down.”
….’
——————–
IMO Putin was setting himself up to target Ukraine grain convoys. My guess is that the US guaranteed safe passage of the latter, leaving Putin with a lose lose.
He has not been stubborn here. This is a very quick reversal.
Andrew Earlwood 10.55AM
Glad you caught up with my posting of the French parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS from last night. Sadly we agree on the conclusion though – the French inquiry was not reactionary but rational and gave sound analytical reasons why AUKUS was a dud deal for everyone except USA. I.e. Australia was among those duded.
Thanks also for your explanation of the leanings of the different parts of the Labor Right faction and Albo. I see I was too hasty in my comments there and did not appreciate the nuances of different views in groups and individuals.
Boerwar
What is your view of Mick Ryan’s proposal for Australia to send more vehicles including our (used only for training) 50 Abrams tanks to Ukraine to help form a spearhead that could better recapture territory?
Strange.
Bloomberg have been carrying this for almost 5 hours but cannot find it on local media ?
……………………………………….
Australia’s Trade Surplus Swells on Surging Ore, Energy Exports
By Swati Pandey
November 3, 2022, 12:44 AM UTC
Australia’s trade surplus swelled in September on a jump in exports, driven by higher prices for iron ore, metals and energy.
The surplus surged to A$12.4 billion ($7.8 billion) from A$8.3 billion in August, easily exceeding economists’ forecast of A$8.8 billion, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Thursday. Exports jumped 7%, while imports were little changed, it showed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/australia-s-trade-surplus-swells-on-surging-ore-energy-exports?srnd=markets-vp
Socrates it’s all well and good for us to keep sending equipment to Ukraine if we are capable or willing of replacing that we ship?
Or perhaps the establishment will just have us base more US troops and equipment here.
Socrates
My guiding principles are that:
1. Ukraine should signal priority needs
2. Within the parameter of its own defence needs and its ability to deliver, Australia should respond directly to those priorities. Australia should not be second guessing what Ukraine needs.
3. My view is that the Abrams would form a more than useful component of combined arms operations.
4. A consideration would be whether there would be any prospect that Australia could make good. For example, we can build more Bushmasters. I am not aware that there is an Abrams production line in operation.
5. I am reminded of salutary lessons we could still learn from the US destroyers for bases deal of 50 four stackers in WW2. Basically, the US screwed Britain big time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destroyers-for-bases_deal
For those that are interested in rights of silence following on from last week, here is an interesting case where that right does not exist – Crime Commissions.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/03/william-tyrrells-former-foster-mother-knows-where-he-is-nsw-detective-tells-court
I think usually Crimes Commissions are designed to deal with organised crime (bikies, drugs etc) but here is an example where it is being used in respect of a suspicious death and then an assertion is made that someone has lied to that Commission.
It will be interesting to see how the lie is proven.
The egregious comment by the investigating police officer is met by an equally egregious observation by the defence barrister.