Newspoll and Resolve Strategic post-budget polls (open thread)

Labor’s still healthy two-party lead cops a dent in the post-budget Newspoll, but Resolve Strategic finds no significant change on three weeks ago.

The post-budget Newspoll finds Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 at the previous poll eight weeks ago. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by one to 38% and the Coalition by four to 35%. All other players are down: the Greens by two to 11%, One Nation by one to 6%, the United Australia Party by one to 1% and all others by one to 9%. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister has slipped from 61-22 to 54-27, and he is down two on approval to 59% and up four on disapproval to 33%. Peter Dutton is up on both approval and disapproval, respectively by four points to 39% and three points to 46%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1500.

The poll also includes the same suite of questions on response to the budget that Newspoll has been posing since the late 1980s, which you can read about here – I’ll have more to say about those later. Note also the other new posts below this one – my own lengthy compendium of New South Wales state election news, and Adrian Beaumont’s coverage of Brazil’s presidential election and other international electoral events.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now there is a Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, with stronger results for Labor: their primary vote is unchanged on the poll three weeks ago at 39%, with the Coalition up two to 32%, the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation down one to 4%, the United Australia Party down two to 1%, independents down one to 8% and others up one to 3%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton by 53-19 as preferred prime minister, in from 55-17 three weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611.

The budget was rated good for “the country as a whole” by 44% and for “me and my household” by 28%, compared with 50% and 40% respectively for the March budget – it’s not clear how many of the remainder particularly rated it as bad. Four options for action on power prices all received strong support: 79% for price caps, 59% for taxpayer subsidies for those on low incomes, 64% for heavily subsidising home solar power and 67% for reserving gas for the local market, with 3%, 14%, 11% and 4% respectively opposed. Thirty-six per cent considered Labor had broken promises to “cut power bills and get wages moving”, with 12% disagreeing and 53% either undecided or considering it too early to say.

UPDATE (Newspoll budget response): For the questions Newspoll asks after every budget, an even 29% rated it both good and bad for the economy, but 47% rated it negative for personal impact compared with only 12% for positive. Thirty-four per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job, with 48% disagreeing. Another question gauged the extent to which respondents felt the budget properly balanced the cost of living and the budget deficit: 6% felt it put too much emphasis on the former, 25% too much emphasis on the latter, 23% felt it struck the right balance and 31% felt it didn’t do enough for either.

This marks the thirty-sixth budget of which Newspoll has asked essentially the same set of questions going back to 1988. The results are the sixth worst for personal impact and the ninth worst for economic impact, although it rates in the middle of the pack on the question of whether the opposition would have done better. The latter point is illustrated by the first of the charts below, which records Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. The second chart illustrates the correlation between positive results on personal and economic impact. In landing right on the trendline, this shows no particular sense that the budget favoured either economic concerns or personal finances relative to its somewhat negative reception overall.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,531 comments on “Newspoll and Resolve Strategic post-budget polls (open thread)”

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  1. Late Riser at 10.14 pm

    From Guardian blog 30 mins ago:

    “The Russian flag has been removed from the Kherson regional administration building, located in the west bank area of the city where Ukrainian forces made significant advances a few weeks ago. Russian forces moved their regional headquarters across the Dnieper River to the left bank are of Kherson city, according to Ukraine’s Centre of National Resistance under Ukraine’s ministry of defence.”

    There was a report a couple of days ago that the Russian occupation HQ in Kherson province had been moved 50 km SE to Sadovsk, a small town on the Black Sea that is actually closer to the isthmus where Crimea starts than it is to Kherson city.

  2. Simon Earle
    Replying to
    I’ve asked to be parachuted into Perrottet’s seat
    10:02 PM · Nov 3, 2022
    ·Twitter for Android

  3. we all ready have a liberal independent in federal politics dei le james campbell herald sun whoes wife tried to run for a seat said after the elections the liberals would start runing fake independents in state and federaly to combat teel

  4. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 5:38 pm



    What the actual fuck?

    The Hercules is a greater workhorse, but until this announcement I’ve not heard a peep out of anyone expressing a need to double the fleet. Upgrading them makes sense, but 24? Why? Where did this come from? The last white paper? Any of the morrison government ‘defence update’ announceables?

    In my view there is a clear need for another 4 C-17s (but we ‘forgot’ to order them before Boeing shut down the production line. Thanks Tony Abbott), but doubling the Hercules fleet? What is the purpose of THAT?

    We currently have the following transport assets:

    8 x C-17 Galaxies for transcontinental heavy lift;
    12 x C130 Hercules for medium range medium lift;
    10 x J27 Spartan for small-medium lift (with a focus on parachute drops apparently – Cronus: is that true?;
    8 x air refueller tankers which can double up as troop carriers, cargo planes and VIP/Command and control planes.

    Why on earth – others than a lack of C-17s, do we need any more transporters? Certainly not for A2-AD capabilities. That’s for sure. I’d much rather see us fast track $10 billion worth of missiles and/or a missile defence systems, but more Hurcs? Where is the sense of priorities in that

    Another reason for approval of AUKUS deal by Biden.

  5. Cronussays:
    Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 5:47 pm

    “Why on earth – others than a lack of C-17s, do we need any more transporters? Certainly not for A2-AD capabilities. That’s for sure. I’d much rather see us fast track $10 billion worth of missiles and/or a missile defence systems, but more Hurcs? Where is the sense of priorities in that?”

    This would be a great question to put to the former Defence Minister Peter Dutton. I’m not holding my breath, he’ll just buckpass saying he took the advice of Defence.

    Will Dutton under oath say “AUKUS deal Mon Ami.”? 🙂

  6. alfred venison @ Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 11:19 pm:
    “Maskirovka ?”

    This is so very derivative on the part of the Russian military.

    From Sun Tzu, “The Art of War”, 5th century BCE:
    “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

  7. not quite maskirovka … deputy head of the region appeared tonight on the popular tv current affairs show “solovyov live” & basically announced it. no biggie apparently. civilians after all were evacuated weeks ago. its now a concrete jungle killing field/ a “poisoned chalice”. will the ukrainians go for it / “liberate” it ?

  8. Macarthur @ #1512 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 10:33 pm

    alfred venison @ Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 11:19 pm:
    “Maskirovka ?”

    This is so very derivative on the part of the Russian military.

    From Sun Tzu, “The Art of War”, 5th century BCE:
    “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

    Real or deceptive, they are trying hard, it seems.

    Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |
    reports that Kherson locals are now reporting all RU roadblocks, and soldiers are gone. Flags are taken down from governement buildings. Defensive positions north of the city are also reported to have been abandoned.
    10:40 PM · Nov 3, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App

  9. “alfred venison @ Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 11:19 pm:
    “Maskirovka ?””

    Without writing them off and underestimating them I’d be a bit wary of attributing too much credit for nouse to daS Rusky on this one.

    They have known for a considerable period that anything West of the Dnipro was going to cost a LOT to hold, and they probably wouldn’t achieve that anyway. East of the Dnipro they have a much more defensible line where their demonstrated inflexibility in command, control wont be as much of a disadvantage as it has so far proven to be.

    The Ukranian’s have i think held off in Kherson to rest, reconstitute and rotate….and wait for the Russians to withdraw troops so the Ukranian’s don’t have to fight as many of them…and the higher quality ones…with the consequent losses.

    The Russians are trying to create something, anything, other than the losing situation they have found themselves in. Make things different and see what happens. Take up a more hold-able line and wait to see what winter brings in Ukraine and Europe. Bit of a worry is them apparently restocking with Iranian SRBM’s. 🙁

    I reckon we will maybe see a period where Ukrainian light recce forces carefully probe to find out whats going on, on the ground. Booby traps, Russian equipment and ammo store left behind and trapped , lots mines of all types left scattered around……..It will be bloody for the Ukranian’s just on that basis and both sides will suffer from WWI style artillery exchanges..again. 🙁 They can just blockade the urban part of Kherson, minimize their losses and let winter kill of anyone left there who doesn’t walk out hands up.

    If the Russians do leave stay behind troops that are anything more than speed bumps then they are going to die in Kherson, most likely of wounds / starvation / exposure and if they are at all experienced they will know that. Newly mobilized troops left behind are highly likely to just surrender soon as possible.

    From what i am reading, blowing that dam to flood Kherson is actually a big ask. More likely the gates and power station parts which will mean flooding yup, but not as bad early speculation.

    Speculation already that its a trap to draw the Ukrainian’s in to be nuked. I don’t see that happening as a nuke, is a nuke is a nuke no matter where it’s used or what for. It would be a massive escalation simply for spite.

  10. Quasar, there a single (free for now) charger opposite the Soldiers Club in Yass which is close to shops and food outlets, very popular.
    Must be at least 10 at Olivers out near The Dog on the Tuckerbox. Food isn’t to bad either.

  11. I see alfred venison is back with liberation in quotes.
    Yes the Russians are still occupying in 2022 a country they invaded.
    Yes the Russians are still destroying the infrastructure of another country.
    Yes Russia is still sending their young men, untrained, to another country to die.

    There has been two significant developments in Ukraine.

    1) The rainy season has started, there will be no significant movement until the freeze sets in.
    2) For the Swiss, the Nuclear saber rattle has been to much, the bank accounts of the Russian elite have been frozen. There will be no escape to the west, with a truck load of loot. They need to sort this out.

    What is to become of Russia? Will China invade? Will Japan take back their island? Will Georgia take back their lands. Will the countries invaded in the 18th centenary take back their independence? Who knows.

  12. The Bank of England have said the UK is entering a recession that may last 2 years. If it lasts 3 years it may be described as a depression.

    No mention of Robodebt in ABC news or RN Breakfast and what the papers say. This is in stark contrast to other MSM efforts of conflating the death of Kitching with an unrelated discussion.

  13. Fargo61 @ #1429 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 6:03 pm

    The big difference is that the ATO did exactly what it was supposed to do, it provided Centrelink with data, that, as far as I know, was entirely accurate.

    What Centrelink was supposed to do, was to analyse that data and apply it appropriately to the various income tests of their various payment types, where that could be done.

    What Centrelink actually did, was to incorrectly apply annual data to a fortnightly income test, raise and demand repayment of bogus overpayments, refuse to provide their ‘calculations’, and ignore internal and external legal advice.

    That is not just incompetence, it is malfeseance and dereliction of duty.

    This is the best, most succinct description of Robodebt that I have ever comer across. Nothing more needs to be said. This says it all.

  14. Cronus on Thur at 7.31 am

    Russian loss of influence in Africa is a diplomatic problem not a financial one, given the demand that still exists for Russian fossil fuel exports.

    The grain deal mediated by Guterres and Erdogan has been important in limiting the wider consequences of Putin’s war. Erdogan will be at the G20.

  15. The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said on Thursday that it had inspected three Ukrainian facilities and found no evidence of illegal nuclear activity, debunking claims Russian officials made last week that Ukraine was using the sites to prepare a “dirty bomb.”

    Dirty bombs are improvised bombs that use conventional high explosives to spread radioactive material into the surrounding area. President Vladimir V. Putin joined his senior military leaders in making the assertion that Ukraine was planning to use one.

    But the top diplomats of the United States, Britain and France have firmly rejected the Russian claims, which were unaccompanied by any evidence. Last week, the diplomats issued a rare joint statement saying that the Kremlin could be using the false claim as a pretext to escalate its war on Ukraine.

    Ukraine also rejected Russia’s claim and, in a bid to show that it was not producing such a weapon, invited the U.N. watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to inspect the three facilities featured in Russia’s accusation. The sites are a mine in the center of the country, a machine building plant in Dnipro Province and a nuclear research institute in the capital, Kyiv.

    “Our technical and scientific evaluation of the results we have so far did not show any sign of undeclared nuclear activities and materials at these three locations,” the agency’s director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said in a statement on Thursday, following the agency’s inspection.

  16. Abrams Battle Tanks & Bushmasters to Ukraine.
    Glad to see a couple of Bludgers taking up the call.
    Since, early in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I have been advocating this position.
    Despite, costing Australia millions of dollars for these tanks, which were totally useless to the defensive needs of the country, dispatching them to Ukraine would be a better option than letting them rust.
    I don’t know about their actual production line, but I do believe they came from the: “which surplus junk can we off-load to our Aussie lackey’s department on the Pentagon.”
    Agree, regarding the Bushmasters and let’s add a large number of Hawkeyes,too!

  17. frednk at 6.15 am

    What is to become of Russia? That is the biggest question of Putin’s war. Answer unlikely before 2023 at the earliest.

    China will not invade Russia, nor will Japan. Georgia will not try to recapture its rebellious provinces. Putin’s problem is strategy, which he lacks. He could manage limited wars.

    Russia’s immediate problem is Putin’s autocracy, including the lack of official disobedience.

    Imagine the response if the Pentagon was, hypothetically, ordered to occupy Canada or Mexico. They would refuse. The Russian chiefs did not refuse.

  18. CT Group, co-owned by Lynton Crosby, planned secretive African campaign on behalf of Canadian mining giant

    A lobbying firm with deep ties to the Conservative party planned a secretive campaign to influence elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in exchange for millions of pounds from a mining company.

    Leaked documents suggest the influential firm co-owned by the veteran Tory strategist Sir Lynton Crosby agreed to help the mining company swing a presidential election in the central African country.

    The files suggest CT Group also worked, under the radar, on a political influence campaign in Zambia on behalf of mining interests while working on a campaign to oust the country’s president.

  19. biden dropped the “n” word just this week, austin dropped the “n” word last week, blinken too. mi6 (!ffs) in the course of denying everything managed to slip in the “n” word. stoltenberg dropped the “n” word. michel & van der lyden dropped the “n” word. macron’s dropping the “n” word like its confetti at a double wedding. the pope dropped the “n” on putin & binden cos macron asked him to. and orban’s an old hand at dropping the “n” word. all in conjunction with the caveat to wit ukraine is sovereign and will decide itself when & under what conditions it will “n”. uttering the “n” was impermissible two weeks ago.

  20. the flag is back.

    people wd do well to heed the advice of Natalya Humenyuk, head of the press centre of the Defence Forces.

    “Despite the fact that the enemy declares the abandonment of settlements in the Kherson region and the total evacuation, we monitor the situation and are aware that it may be certain tricks and military maneuvers in order to create a properly built defense for themselves. These are certain provocations in order to give the impression that the population centres have been abandoned, that they are safe. But given that they were preparing for street battles, we are aware of the planned tactics. We should not be in a hurry to rejoice, we have to understand that hybrid warfare also involves such information dumping, attacks.”

  21. alfred venison
    It intrigues me that someone who has clear indications of some sort of claim to intelligence would ally that intelligence with a murderous thug who should be hanged for his war crimes.

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