The post-budget Newspoll finds Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 at the previous poll eight weeks ago. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by one to 38% and the Coalition by four to 35%. All other players are down: the Greens by two to 11%, One Nation by one to 6%, the United Australia Party by one to 1% and all others by one to 9%. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister has slipped from 61-22 to 54-27, and he is down two on approval to 59% and up four on disapproval to 33%. Peter Dutton is up on both approval and disapproval, respectively by four points to 39% and three points to 46%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1500.
The poll also includes the same suite of questions on response to the budget that Newspoll has been posing since the late 1980s, which you can read about here – I’ll have more to say about those later. Note also the other new posts below this one – my own lengthy compendium of New South Wales state election news, and Adrian Beaumont’s coverage of Brazil’s presidential election and other international electoral events.
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now there is a Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, with stronger results for Labor: their primary vote is unchanged on the poll three weeks ago at 39%, with the Coalition up two to 32%, the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation down one to 4%, the United Australia Party down two to 1%, independents down one to 8% and others up one to 3%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton by 53-19 as preferred prime minister, in from 55-17 three weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611.
The budget was rated good for “the country as a whole” by 44% and for “me and my household” by 28%, compared with 50% and 40% respectively for the March budget – it’s not clear how many of the remainder particularly rated it as bad. Four options for action on power prices all received strong support: 79% for price caps, 59% for taxpayer subsidies for those on low incomes, 64% for heavily subsidising home solar power and 67% for reserving gas for the local market, with 3%, 14%, 11% and 4% respectively opposed. Thirty-six per cent considered Labor had broken promises to “cut power bills and get wages moving”, with 12% disagreeing and 53% either undecided or considering it too early to say.
UPDATE (Newspoll budget response): For the questions Newspoll asks after every budget, an even 29% rated it both good and bad for the economy, but 47% rated it negative for personal impact compared with only 12% for positive. Thirty-four per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job, with 48% disagreeing. Another question gauged the extent to which respondents felt the budget properly balanced the cost of living and the budget deficit: 6% felt it put too much emphasis on the former, 25% too much emphasis on the latter, 23% felt it struck the right balance and 31% felt it didn’t do enough for either.
This marks the thirty-sixth budget of which Newspoll has asked essentially the same set of questions going back to 1988. The results are the sixth worst for personal impact and the ninth worst for economic impact, although it rates in the middle of the pack on the question of whether the opposition would have done better. The latter point is illustrated by the first of the charts below, which records Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. The second chart illustrates the correlation between positive results on personal and economic impact. In landing right on the trendline, this shows no particular sense that the budget favoured either economic concerns or personal finances relative to its somewhat negative reception overall.
Shellbell @ #1342 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 2:40 pm
This is a real concern.
What about a Polestar?
Rex Douglassays:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 3:05 pm
Acknowledges Tesla lead and great ambition for 2026.
By then the marker will have a long way forward from the current vehicles.
Their plans to achieve this is the real interesting bit.
Andrew_Earlwood
Apologies, out for my fortnightly medical checkup, it never ends.
Lots to unpack in your response and certainly some quite reasonable points for consideration. But …… and there are a lot of small buts that comprise the big but, the issue is about our immediate defence and allied posture.
Such things are not unwound lightly nor in short time. Rightly or wrongly, there is a lot of history between the AUKUS nations, even if this only applied to the past. Many Australians (who would have to be convinced of and brought along on this journey of significant change) have known no other cultural/defence environment and would require impressive education and leadership to change their minds.
All the while with the Murdochracy dialling up the level of crazy and the Coalition literally going berserk over the very idea. I would take a good deal of convincing that Australia is yet intellectually ready for this. Again, ignoring the many critical details and elements, this change would take a lot of time, I’m guessing potentially 10-20 years to both unwind and establish concurrently. During this time, in our current scenario, we would literally be naked from a defence perspective without even the fig leaf of AUKUS to provide cover if necessary. This would involve significant risk that I doubt that much of the Australian public would be willing to undertake, particularly given China’s current posture.
I suspect we’re stuck with the shit sandwich for sometime yet and need to provide enough political and trade condiments to make it palatable in the short term at least.
Kudos to SA Labor and SA Greens for playing nicely together on this issue and achieving a better outcome for workers.
“The South Australian government has reached an agreement with the Greens that will both avoid industrial action by healthcare workers and allow restrictions on paid parking at shopping centres to pass parliament.
Amendments to the government’s bill on the issue will give up to 17,000 hospital workers parking for $2.50 per day at the hospital they work at.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-03/sa-shopping-centre-paid-parking-restriction-bill-set-to-pass/101610584
If they work there, let them park for free?
Who else can’t wait for the Bathurst 1000 to be won by an electric vehicle???
a r says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 3:38 pm
If they work there, let them park for free?
____________
You’d think it would have been a right. How much have nurses been paying?
“What about a Polestar?”
I would be very happy to be called a Polestar driver.
When do you reckon 2nd hand ones will start appearing?
“ Who else can’t wait for the Bathurst 1000 to be won by an electric vehicle???”
The Bathurst 100? Maybe, but for the Bathurst 1000 EV will be a case of: 30 minutes running, 90 minutes of charging, 30 minutes of running, 90 minutes of charging and so on.
Unless we actually get unobtanium batteries, or there is a Li-ion battery swap out in the pits every 30 minutes or so …
Edited to add the following information:
If Bathurst ‘RV super cars’ were limited to 900kg (driver and car) and speeds limited to 200kmh, they might be able to run for 45 minutes, if Formula E is any guide: from the FAI’s website:
“ A Formula E car weighs a minimum of 903 kg, including the driver and a battery weighing 385 kg.
…
The Formula E race lasts for 45-minutes. The cars can complete that distance without drivers needing to change vehicles half way through the race thanks to technological innovation, which has doubled the amount of usable energy to 54 kWh.The power output from the battery is 200 kW for the race and reaches a peak of up to 250 kW for qualifying.”
Check out all the fossil fuel scammers doing a number on us…
Message from daughter, Tesla Model Y SR being delivered to home(free) on north coast tomorrow.
Excitement all round.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 3:43 pm
My guess is by the end of this decade.
Batteries to go further and charging to get much quicker.
Big call out of the Joint (Fed.) Election Committee hearing just now.
Due an indicative error rate from a sample of scanned ballot checking in the Senate in VIC, there could be an issue with the election of Victoria’s 6th Senate candidate at the recent election.
The issue is connected to the count (and scanning) having an error rate that could theoretically have changed the result. There is no issue with actual voting process itself.
Watch this space. Not this exact space. But the election news space.
Dandy Murray @ #1358 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 3:12 pm
Cant even test drive them here in SA.
Well I need to save my pennies in any case.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1359 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 3:13 pm
Merc have a 1000km range sports EV. Wont get that range when racing but its getting there. And the ultra fast EV chargers are getting faster.
wranslide @ 1.15pm,
Or should I change your nom without asking you to slimyslide?
No I am not a troll. Though a look in the mirror might aid your perception of who is trolling who.
And I am sorry to say that even your oft repeated smear about my ‘Branchy’ status is so far from the truth as to be laughable. I just don’t like to bang my own drum, preferring instead to let younger people step into roles I have been asked to do.
Nevertheless it’s true that I didn’t read that particular article this morning about the Dominos employee class action before I made my initial comment. However, upon reading it it’s obvious to me that the SDA is the union who discovered the underpayment and brought an end to it, probably as a result of their having the right to inspect the employer’s books. I would then believe that it was the SDA who have brought the case against Dominos.
Do correct me if I am wrong. Or you can keep acting like an immature schoolboy. Your choice.
Me? I have an important meeting to attend in Sydney tonight. Not that you will believe it as it doesn’t suit your puerile narrative about me. Like. I. Care.
“ Batteries to go further and charging to get much quicker.”
Re, batteries: No they will not. At least not Li-ion batteries. Wishing wont make it so. Li-sodium batteries, graphene batteries, light metal batteries and so on are all really no more than ideas resembling thought bubbles at this stage. That said, I think there will be a technology breakthrough but there is zero identifiable pathway for that to occur in 8 years. Something both radical and also immediately practical to roll out would have to happen. Who knows, perhaps it will be cold fusion … 😉
Re, charging: possibly. But even 350 kw charging would still be way too slow for endurance car racing. Something perhaps four times as fast. Maybe one of Barnaby’s modular nuclear power stations could power it. …
No more $100 Million UAP Man?
“ Merc have a 1000km range sports EV. Wont get that range when racing but its getting there. And the ultra fast EV chargers are getting faster.”
And as soon as that EV is put in the Merc’s equivalent of Tesla’s ‘Ludicrous’ mode and driven at full stick on an autobahn that 1000km range battery drains in about 20 minutes. Which is still slow and less energy consuming than driving a 1600kg Supercar at full stick around Mount Panorama. …
How pathetic is The Age to leap on the bandwagon of re-reporting on a crash from 9 years ago involving a politicians wife in which there’s never even previously been a suggestion she was at fault for the crash.
The formula E cars actually go at 200MPH (320kph)…
“And as soon as that EV is put in the Merc’s equivalent of Tesla’s ‘Ludicrous’ mode and driven at full stick on an autobahn that 1000km range battery drains in about 20 minutes. Which is still slow and less energy consuming than driving a 1600kg Supercar at full stick around Mount Panorama. …”
Yep, stick with the biofuels for net-zero endurance racing. The energy density of liquid fuels is not going to be surpassed by a battery any time soon.
Who’s the real Prime Minister – Albo or Madeleine King …?
“ The formula E cars actually go at 200MPH (320kph)…”
Really? Where do you get that information from?
Even F1 cars ‘only’ max out at ~ 220 MPH (350 kmh), and then only at tracks like Baku. At Monaco they max out at 190 MPH just out of the tunnel section.
When racing on the same circuits F1 and Formula E are visually different in pace. For and Formula E ~250 kmh in race trim is what they quote, and what they look to me to be doing on the straights seems to be a lot slower – like barely 200kmh. Worse, the ‘racing’ resembles an economy run, with the ‘winners’ those left with sufficient charge on the last lap. Truly a petty pathetic spectacle.
is it funy that the shoppies union only started to represent its members once joe debryun retired he was more concerned about stoping gay marige and abortion then representing his members at eleast the union are taking on dominoes how ever not shore if they or there rival union found out first how ever i personaly cant take the shoppies serously un les they get rid of the disgraceful gregg donnely who hates trans rights andused parliament to humiliate a pro abortion acdivest to atempt to get her exbelled from the unerversity of sydney
“ Yep, stick with the biofuels for net-zero endurance racing. The energy density of liquid fuels is not going to be surpassed by a battery any time soon.”
Actually, IMO stick with net zero biofuels for all forms of motor racing (and insist on us ICE lovers switching over our ‘heritage clunkers’ road cars/motorbikes to similar net zero bio-fuels in the next 5-10 years while we are at it).
High speed endurance racing just isn’t ideal for EVs, they get very hot when you start going at high speeds, which can’t last for too long, otherwise the battery will catch alight.
But ICE cars are also not ideal for the majority of driving that people actually do, which is very short trips in their local areas, a lot of energy wasted and a lot of pollution emitted. But we been doing it for a very long time!
China Property Bonds Are ‘No Longer Analyzable’ as Crisis Grows
Prices reflect black box market beyond analysis: Loomis’ Feng
Contagion has spread to firms that had been seen as safer
By Alice Huang
November 2, 2022, 11:41 PM UTC
The crisis in Chinese property dollar bonds has become so extreme that an analyst who’s been covering the market since its inception in 2005 says meaningful analysis is no longer possible.
“The proven investment approach is that it won’t go wrong being negative or more negative ahead of the market,” said Zhi Wei Feng, a senior analyst at Loomis Sayles Investments Asia Pte, who was working on credit research at Barclays Capital in 2005, when the first-ever Chinese real estate firm dollar bond was issued.
“It is very frustrating when the market is no longer analyzable,” she said.
China’s offshore property notes have plummeted to record lows that reflect deep distress, as defaults mount to unprecedented levels. The rout has its roots in a crackdown that started in 2020 on excessive leverage at developers as well as speculation among homebuyers, and has been worsened by Covid restrictions that exacerbated a slump in housing sales.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/china-property-bonds-are-no-longer-analyzable-as-crisis-grows?srnd=premium-asia
A_E
https://www.fiaformulae.com/en/news/2022/april/gen3-launch-in-monaco
At the rate at which it is improving, I’d give ICE engines about a decade at most…
imo donnelly is labors bigest inbarasment triying to shame woman even a month a go triying to shut down a sex clinick he has been perhaps one of nsws most conservative mps yet the shoppies union preselected him again foor eight years in 12019 soberney smith can find know good oficial to represent the union in the upper house plus the uselis senater deborah oniel still in the senate desbite contributing little to politics apart from herinvestergation in to finance and her campaigns on the coast smith believed it was better to loose kenearley then a corear back bencher this is whiy the shoppies have a bad reputation
Ven at 9.20 am
There are at least two aspects re US military spending: 1) quantity; and 2) quality.
Re 1) for long term trends see the top blue graph at:
https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_spending_history
That shows there was, except for belated US involvement in the Great War, not much increase in US military spending until 1940. There was a huge increase in WWII, which got the US out of the depression economically. Then there was a very large increase in the 1950s, linked to the Korean War and general militarisation of the Cold War (without the Korean war NATO may not have been institutionalised). Then there was a decrease in the late 1970s after the Vietnam war, and a relatively slight decrease in the 1990s after the Cold War, with an increase since 2000.
The main institutional factor was named by President Eisenhower upon leaving office as the rise of the military-industrial complex, which is fully entrenched in US politics. This complex is concerned with winning contracts, not winning wars.
2) This complex is notoriously corrupt, operating beyond any market competition.
For one summary see:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/its-time-to-rein-in-inflated-military-budgets/ E.g.:
“There are plenty of reasons to cut the Pentagon’s budget, but its track record of profligate spending is among the most obvious. If the Pentagon were a private corporation, gross mismanagement would have forced it into bankruptcy years ago. Dysfunctional internal controls, aided and abetted by years of lax congressional and administration oversight, have enabled it to waste tens of billions of dollars annually, and the last 20 years are littered with a parade of overpriced, botched and bungled projects.”
It is not just the last 20 years, since the complex is now well over 60 years old and not interested at all in retirement.
The US invasion of Grenada hardly counts, as it was no contest. Re Iraq, I presume you mean the 1991 war against Iraq, after Iraq invaded Kuwait, and Bob Hawke famously said “big countries cannot invade small ones”, without blinking at all about Australian acquiescence in Indonesia’s attempted conquest of East Timor.
As is now obvious, war is a complex catastrophe, not decided simply by spending.
Look at the SIPRI graph at the right here, comparing US, China and Russia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States
As you note, US spending is 3.74% of GDP at 2020, with China much less at 1.74%.
While Russian spending was 4.26%, because the Russian economy is much smaller that amounts to much less. And Russia competes with the US for corruption gold.
Mr Hirschhorn from the ATO is an exceptionally good witness at the royal commissio. Well prepared, knowledgable and not at all evasive.
Donnely is laborsworst nsw mp during the scandle over the shoppies bad coles deal he sent the supper markets a leter demanding they sack no staff if they publickly aposed same sex marige the donnelys and debryuns who would rather persue a right wing social agender in setead of actualy representing there memberseven in senate don farell has not dun much use he has not made any progress on china trade tentions the shoppies have a few good mps tony burke sa premier mallinusscas and sen raff ciccone but donnelies and oniels as well
‘Dave says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 4:31 pm
China Property Bonds Are ‘No Longer Analyzable’ as Crisis Grows
…’
—————————–
SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Looking at how Russia conducts war in 2022 it is clear the corruption in Russia’s military is on another scale to the US.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 4:13 pm
Computing power limits is one example where past predictions have been way off. Some argued that Moore’s law was dead.
That Tony Seba video maps out the history very well.
Break throughs are more likely to accelerate rather than slow down.
We can not be criticised for not predicting what we do not know.
BK
Agreed. He knows his material and obviously prepared a quality document for the RC.
just read the dominoes article seems the shoppies are no were to be soon and he worker is represented buy a lawer further evidence of the union not caring abbout its workers wonder whiy so many extremists join the shoppies union
Alpha Zero says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 3:38 pm
Who else can’t wait for the Bathurst 1000 to be won by an electric vehicle???
———————————————————————————————
That day is coming and it’ll be the first time I’ve watched Bathurst in 50 years.
BK
I’d say the ATO has read the tea leaves and doing its best to point the commission in the direction of the Department Of Human Services, who were the drivers of the program.
Rossmcg
I thought the same thing.
Dave
Analyze this.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/30/what-chinas-property-crisis
‘Rossmcg says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 4:48 pm
BK
I’d say the ATO has read the tea leaves and doing its best to point the commission in the direction of the Department Of Human Services, who were the drivers of the program.’
———————————-
They were just following orders consistent with various bits of legislation. The bus is over there.
Aaron newton @ #1391 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 4:42 pm
They SDA are a front for a conservative block of power in the Labor party. A sham of a union.
Rossmcg:
….and who could blame them? Suspect no love has been lost between the two departments since the problems became public, if not before.
the only problim with the defenders of the shoppies is that the rival rafwu are the ones rpepresenting the dominoes law suoit not gredgg donnelys unionwho finds it more interesting to atempt to get pro choice acdevists sacked from getting an education then defending workers
agree rex i know the liberals set up fake unions for nursis and other ones but dont think the raetail and fast food workers union is a fake union i dont think the average shoop asistant on low wages is overly concerned abbout baning abortion or gay marige or now religis fredom for more discrimination i know senteral coast senater deborah oniel is only still in the senate thanks to the shoppies as is the disgraceful gregg donnely but its basickly a cathlick faction not a union
‘Bennelong Lurker says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 4:52 pm
Rossmcg:
….and who could blame them? Suspect no love has been lost between the two departments since the problems became public.’
—————————————–
Love has got nothing to do with it at this stage. They are all in the ‘sauve qui peut’ phase. The pollies will be testing plausible denial with their solicitors as we post. ‘I don’t recall seeing final legal advice on…’
What is going to be really interesting is whether the RC has a go at twisting the arms off ministerial staffers.
the shoppies give real unions a bad name like awu and twu they should hand over to the rafwu and just act as a cathlick presure group at least that wa senater resigned and the qld one lost his seat tony burke is good and he used to be from the shoppies it says much about the shoppies desbite not being a huge kk fan they would get rid of a high profile front bencher for a uselis back bencher