The post-budget Newspoll finds Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 at the previous poll eight weeks ago. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by one to 38% and the Coalition by four to 35%. All other players are down: the Greens by two to 11%, One Nation by one to 6%, the United Australia Party by one to 1% and all others by one to 9%. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister has slipped from 61-22 to 54-27, and he is down two on approval to 59% and up four on disapproval to 33%. Peter Dutton is up on both approval and disapproval, respectively by four points to 39% and three points to 46%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1500.
The poll also includes the same suite of questions on response to the budget that Newspoll has been posing since the late 1980s, which you can read about here – I’ll have more to say about those later. Note also the other new posts below this one – my own lengthy compendium of New South Wales state election news, and Adrian Beaumont’s coverage of Brazil’s presidential election and other international electoral events.
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now there is a Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, with stronger results for Labor: their primary vote is unchanged on the poll three weeks ago at 39%, with the Coalition up two to 32%, the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation down one to 4%, the United Australia Party down two to 1%, independents down one to 8% and others up one to 3%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton by 53-19 as preferred prime minister, in from 55-17 three weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611.
The budget was rated good for “the country as a whole” by 44% and for “me and my household” by 28%, compared with 50% and 40% respectively for the March budget – it’s not clear how many of the remainder particularly rated it as bad. Four options for action on power prices all received strong support: 79% for price caps, 59% for taxpayer subsidies for those on low incomes, 64% for heavily subsidising home solar power and 67% for reserving gas for the local market, with 3%, 14%, 11% and 4% respectively opposed. Thirty-six per cent considered Labor had broken promises to “cut power bills and get wages moving”, with 12% disagreeing and 53% either undecided or considering it too early to say.
UPDATE (Newspoll budget response): For the questions Newspoll asks after every budget, an even 29% rated it both good and bad for the economy, but 47% rated it negative for personal impact compared with only 12% for positive. Thirty-four per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job, with 48% disagreeing. Another question gauged the extent to which respondents felt the budget properly balanced the cost of living and the budget deficit: 6% felt it put too much emphasis on the former, 25% too much emphasis on the latter, 23% felt it struck the right balance and 31% felt it didn’t do enough for either.
This marks the thirty-sixth budget of which Newspoll has asked essentially the same set of questions going back to 1988. The results are the sixth worst for personal impact and the ninth worst for economic impact, although it rates in the middle of the pack on the question of whether the opposition would have done better. The latter point is illustrated by the first of the charts below, which records Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. The second chart illustrates the correlation between positive results on personal and economic impact. In landing right on the trendline, this shows no particular sense that the budget favoured either economic concerns or personal finances relative to its somewhat negative reception overall.
Why do so many so-called lefties have a fetish about sticking it to the SDA rather than to nine year’s worth of systemic destruction of unions by the Coalition?
Just another boring re-run of the JPLF v th PLFJ?
Legal advice?
The ATO knew nothing.
Sergeant Schulz eat your heart out.
i can not dfind anyreliable source that says the rafwu signed the deal with dominoes below the award rates buti realise the age and others go after the shoppies in order to damageunions in general but the fact that the shoppies face competitioon is because there oficials were more concerned with social ishues in stead of representing the low payed shop and dominows workers can not remember the union ecver taking industrial action ever or un til debryun ever actualycalling for better pay and conditions debryun was allways quoated on sicuial ishues and because he was so bad the liberals gave him a queens birthday honer
i could ask the same about whiy some people find it eazier to join with the anti greens properganda in stead of attacking the l n ps nine years of failure but i wont maybi progresives like my self dislike the Sda because with out there delaying tacdicks don farell the weakist minister in albanese government delaying gay marige we would had marige equality in the gillard years and not have the un necesary delay for years
Boerwar says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 4:59 pm
Why do so many so-called lefties have a fetish about sticking it to the SDA rather than to nine year’s worth of systemic destruction of unions by the Coalition?
Just another boring re-run of the JPLF v th PLFJ?
中华人民共和国
It’s got me buggered too cobber.
But I now remember another reason I have been living in exile for a decade.
I’m going to the beach. Good luck BW.
plus i know he is in state politics but the extremely conservative gregg donnely is in nsw parliament since 2005 and is protected desbite apart from his reajonal health work abbout as even more extreme then tonyty abbott on social ishues and his anto gay rights stants including defending lathams sexist attack on his labor female coleague as chairman of the upper house comitty he let latham go on a ssexist spray undermining the anti bullying report and did nothing
“ Australia’s ageing fleet of American-made military cargo aircraft will be replaced and doubled in number under a $10 billion deal approved by the United States. The US State Department has approved the “possible foreign military sale” of 24 C-130J-30 planes and related equipment, which would replace the RAAF’s existing fleet of 12 Hercules aircraft.”
“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States,” the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) confirmed. Australia is one of our most important allies in the Western Pacific,” the DSCA statement added.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-03/raaf-to-double-cargo-fleet-in-10-billion-us-deal/101610818
Aaron newton,
Where have you found proof that the underpaid employees of Dominos are not being supported by the SDA and by a lawyer being paid for by them?
However, I do agree with you about Greg Donnelly. But you are wrong about him driving his agenda through the union. He does it independently of them. I also understand that this is likely his last term.
Dr Doolittle
“ Look at the SIPRI graph at the right here, comparing US, China and Russia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States
As you note, US spending is 3.74% of GDP at 2020, with China much less at 1.74%.”
I would agree with your characterisation of AUKUS, US military spending waste and corruption. However I do think those SIPRI figures understate Chinese military spending via spending being hidden under other agency budgets.
This youtube video looks at the real total Chinese military budget and finds it much higher. Detailed analysis of why is discussed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4
@ Alpha Zero 4:31pm.
Jesus wept.
You are talking about the new ‘3gen’ cars, which wont be around in operation until next year. OK. Fine.
Worth noting the following points:
The increase in speed comes from three factors only:
1. Increased power, mainly from a bigger main electrical motor; and
2. Reduced weight from making the cars physically smaller (so a net saving of. Around 60kg); and
3. Better aerodynamics.
None of that ‘improvement’ in performance comes from new or refined electric-battery technologies. Just good old fashioned power-weight-aeodymanics improvements. There is a big caveat in all of this of course: How much actual improvement – especially in race trim, remains to be seen. I suspect not much.
One thing I do find fascinating is the additional power that will be provided by the installation of a second electric motor that operates the front wheels from regenerative braking s energy only (ie. this motor is not hooked up to main battery pack). How long that energy can be stored for, and where it can be deployed will be fascinating to watch … for at least the first two races next year. However, in terms of racing duration, nothing will change and I suspect that the last laps of each GP will still resemble an economy run. That is because you can’t fudge the physics. More power expanded eats into the stored energy. It’s a closed system. Efficiency gains from weight and lesser drag will be eaten up by the power available. After the first 40 of 45 minutes of racing the cars will still be tiptoeing around to make the finish line. In fact, there will be no advantage in trying to lead the race until the last lap, or attempting any overtaking before then, because of loss of stored energy required. Completely shit-full. It would be much much better if they swapped out the 45 minute economy run for two 20-30 minute races where the new cars could go full pelt from lights out to chequered flag.
Be that as it may, how does this equate to a E Supercar 1000km race around Bathurst? Well, nothing has moved the dial from my original post in that regard. A 1 tonne -150kw-h battery will power a 1600kg+ supercar behemoth around Bathurst at full pelt for no more than 10-12 laps (15 maybe if they use a power limiter whilst in race trim). Then, its either swap out the battery, or wait until a ‘supercharger’ can restore the depleted energy.
Soc
Depending on Chinese stats to estimate their military spending is ludicrous.
Large numbers of China’s commercial fishing fleet (3,000 and by far and away the largest in the world) were deployed to take over islands disputed by the Philippines.
Anyone doing an analysis of the course of a Taiwan invasion would have to calculate the simultaneous attempt by hundreds of trawlers, perhaps thousands of trawlers, to land troops on Taiwan.
https://news.mongabay.com/2021/03/chinese-fishing-fleet-anchored-on-philippine-reef-raises-tensions/
BW
Missed the last few minutes (phone call). Anything of note?
Agree re staffers.
BL
Not 100% sure but the ATO seems to have made sure it had legal advice on matters relating to data transfer under various acts.
Rowe
Not 100% sure but the ATO seems to have made sure it had legal advice on matters relating to data transfer under various acts.
_________
Boerwar
The big difference is that the ATO, unlike DHS, were not being pressured by a minister (Morrison) to make sure his big-noting savings would be realised in the impending budget.
BW
Thank you.
https://apple.news/A0j2vUAZdSme8whvNB7QoTw
(The Conversation on Robodebt Scheme RC)
Just wonder why the ABC interviews current & ex ministers on anything to do with integrity on budget, energy, environment, NDIS, Robodebt without preface question on their integrity & credibility..
Their interview of the Poodle was weak
VCT Et3e
“The Robodebt scheme failed tests of lawfulness, impartiality, integrity and trust”
“ Overall the scheme lacked integrity. It was a malign policy – and without even going into issues of whether it was designed to be malign or whether it became malign over time – and it set a very poor example for the conduct of government.”
Other than that it was all fine.
“ “ Australia’s ageing fleet of American-made military cargo aircraft will be replaced and doubled in number under a $10 billion deal approved by the United States. The US State Department has approved the “possible foreign military sale” of 24 C-130J-30 planes and related equipment, which would replace the RAAF’s existing fleet of 12 Hercules aircraft.”
“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States,” the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) confirmed. Australia is one of our most important allies in the Western Pacific,” the DSCA statement added.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-03/raaf-to-double-cargo-fleet-in-10-billion-us-deal/101610818”
___
What the actual fuck?
The Hercules is a greater workhorse, but until this announcement I’ve not heard a peep out of anyone expressing a need to double the fleet. Upgrading them makes sense, but 24? Why? Where did this come from? The last white paper? Any of the morrison government ‘defence update’ announceables?
In my view there is a clear need for another 4 C-17s (but we ‘forgot’ to order them before Boeing shut down the production line. Thanks Tony Abbott), but doubling the Hercules fleet? What is the purpose of THAT?
We currently have the following transport assets:
8 x C-17 Galaxies for transcontinental heavy lift;
12 x C130 Hercules for medium range medium lift;
10 x J27 Spartan for small-medium lift (with a focus on parachute drops apparently – Cronus: is that true?;
8 x air refueller tankers which can double up as troop carriers, cargo planes and VIP/Command and control planes.
Why on earth – others than a lack of C-17s, do we need any more transporters? Certainly not for A2-AD capabilities. That’s for sure. I’d much rather see us fast track $10 billion worth of missiles and/or a missile defence systems, but more Hurcs? Where is the sense of priorities in that?
You mean not a single one of those aircraft is configured as a gunship?
Andrew_Earlwood
“Why on earth – others than a lack of C-17s, do we need any more transporters? Certainly not for A2-AD capabilities. That’s for sure. I’d much rather see us fast track $10 billion worth of missiles and/or a missile defence systems, but more Hurcs? Where is the sense of priorities in that?”
———————————————————————————————
This would be a great question to put to the former Defence Minister Peter Dutton. I’m not holding my breath, he’ll just buckpass saying he took the advice of Defence.
BK at 5:29 pm
Made worse was it being about SfM burnishing his hopes for a future claim on leadership. After bashing ‘brown muslim terrorist reffos’ it was upward and onward with bashing ‘dole bludgers’ and ‘welfare cheats’ . The ‘2GB demographic’ of the Coalition would be put in heat just by thinking about that effort of SfM. Behold the Rodent reborn…
Indeed, poroti!
“ The cost of negative gearing is set to blow out as interest rates rise and, with it, the capital gains tax discount is expected to cost the federal budget more than $20 billion a year within a decade.”
I wonder if these figures will create as much of a ruction amongst the Murdochracy and the Coalition and its supporters as the NDIS figures?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-03/negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-budget-cost/101612854
Further reading on 3gen Formula E reveals that the FAI is promising 600 kw chargers so that recharging might be possible during pitstops, hence extending the races. 600 kw is a heck of a lot of energy to plug into a race car … in a crowed pit lane … more than double anything that’s currently on the market … hmmm.
I wonder how long a 600 kw charger would take to charge up a 150 kw-h battery – which would probably be the minimum required for a 1600kg+ E Supercar to get around Mount Panorama at comparable race speeds to the current V8 Supercars for even a handful of laps … anyone hazzard a guess?
Charge or change? How hard and how long is it to change a big battery? Asking for a nerd.
“I wonder how long a 600 kw charger would take to charge up a 150 kw-h battery”
No idea. But just on the math, 600kW times one hour is 600kWh. So 150kWh is a quarter of that. I’d guess 15 minutes.
The big difference is that the ATO did exactly what it was supposed to do, it provided Centrelink with data, that, as far as I know, was entirely accurate.
What Centrelink was supposed to do, was to analyse that data and apply it appropriately to the various income tests of their various payment types, where that could be done.
What Centrelink actually did, was to incorrectly apply annual data to a fortnightly income test, raise and demand repayment of bogus overpayments, refuse to provide their ‘calculations’, and ignore internal and external legal advice.
That is not just incompetence, it is malfeseance and dereliction of duty.
BK, thanks for you many interesting updates. Where please are you able to view the Commission’s proceedings, and as far as you know, is it possible to view proceedings from earlier in the day?
Fargo61
Here. https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/
And there is a pulldown menu for recorded videos at the top left of the broadcast pane.
BK – Thankyou.
Boerwar @ #1393 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 4:50 pm
BW – Going to be *interesting* to see how the cult of Xi come to grips with it all.
I’m sure they are trying all sorts of things, but once it really gets rolling….
Lots of ordinary people with money ‘invested’ in never occupied apartments etc and heaps who bought off the plan, no property because of the failure of the business model, yet they have a huge debt.
Then the massive debt associated with the belt and road….
They may not need the African iron ore mine for some time if at all?
ItzaDream at 5:56 pm
Yes, why not just have swap-able battery packs ? Jack up car,drop out battery pack, wheel in charged pack. Not much different to current pitstops for tyres etc.
What will the petrol heads think of an almost silent Bathhurst where we can hear the twitter of birds and not the roar of dirty V8 engines???…..I cant wait.
The battery swap scheme died quickly – people paying a premium for a car do not want someone else’s dodgy used bit.
The promoter in Australia was Ben Keneally (husband of) but I am not sure if he had much money in the game or was just a face for the company
https://www.drive.com.au/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-better-place-20130218-2emmn/
C@tmomma:
I’ve noticed you haven’t responded to my 2:51 post
Oakeshott Country at 6:42 pm
How many cars of a particular model does there have to be before they can enter ? Perhaps a company can put out a special model with limited numbers. With the undoubted premium price you wouldn’t have the ‘hordes’ to worry about.
Orrrr it could be built ‘drop in capable’ but still able to recharge as per normal.
Perhaps the various battery makers could set up ‘swap stations’ like there are petrol stations. Competition between brands should keep quality up to a reasonable level.
Tesla has knocked back invitations to race in motorsport to the bemusement of other race car manufacturers.
I grew up with the big race at Bathurst, one thing that I remember was being told what the research value was for the car industry. In the days of Hardie there were big improvements in brake pads which were something that got changed multiple times during the race.
I can imagine that racing EVs could yield significant changes to cars as well. Am I misguided on this?
Red Clyde says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 6:45 pm
C@tmomma:
I’ve noticed you haven’t responded to my 2:51 post
——————————–
Ease up on C@t with plenty on Oaks Day.
And a Sydney trained filly won called She’s Extreme!
Poroti
The other problem is that the design of eCars has moved to the batteries being integrated into the car they are difficult to and expensive to change,
BUT all of this is oldthink, I have had an EV for 6 months and I have never used a charging station. The range is 400km and the rare times, possibly 1-2 per year, I do trips longer than that I use an ICE. I charge the car twice a week with my home unit. The number of needed charging stations will be much less than the number of servos
There is something bordering on Darwinian with the number of people trying to drive through flooded creeks. Locally there were four rescues last week, now we have this at Rugby just to the north of us on the Lachlan river.
One dead, one missing after being on the tray of a ute. SES and emergency services are at their wits end with this mentality connected to young men (mainly) and utes.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/search-for-two-men-swept-away-flood-waters-after-riding-in-ute-tray-in-nsw-southern-tablelands-bevendale-boorwa/bbc1265b-3314-4898-95d2-1cb869c000e1
Dog’s Brunch at 7:00 pm
There could be great strides in sound systems if they have the cars play ‘V8 music’ as they race. Drivers would draw to pick which ‘sound’ they get, Brock,Perkins,Richards 🙂
Andrew Earlwood
You ask good questions about the proposed C130 purchase. Once again, it is out of left field, with no mention of it in recent force plans I have read. Once again, the desire to keep the ADF a neat small, scale replica of the US defence force shines through. We are no longer flying people to/from Afghanistan. So why do we need it?
On a more constructive note, the Swedish navy has just announced its new plans, assuming it would be modified to better fit into NATO forces as a member state. One item of interest is its updated and expanded Visby Corvette with better AA. A vessel of this type and size might make a lot of sense for northern Australia. We could afford afew for a fraction of what Hunters are costing.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/11/changes-ahead-for-swedish-naval-plans/
The first word tells you why the Coalition wasn’t concerned about Robodebt.
Todays summary.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/03/robodebt-royal-commission-inquiry-hears-advisers-almost-immediately-concerned-by-initial-plan-centrelink-welfare-debt-recovery
Annika Smethurst’s paean to the importance of the press as watchdogs on politics would have more bite on a day where that press didn’t spend their time promoting a non story about a 9 year old car crash.
Acknowledging the lack of trust in the media is one thing. Admitting that it’s often for very good reason would be the first step towards actually earning any of that trust back.
The “you might not like what we write because it challenges your world view” card needs to be ripped up and burned by journalists lecturing their readers, and doubly so by anyone who worked for fucking Murdoch.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 6:42 pm
Battery swap sounds a lot like the gas cylinder swap
poroti @ #1444 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 6:12 pm
OK. So now I’m imagining a car going, “BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-BROCK-…” as it flies past at a rate of knots. What about sticking a playing card into the spokes?
They were all out of “useless” B-52s.