Newspoll and Resolve Strategic post-budget polls (open thread)

Labor’s still healthy two-party lead cops a dent in the post-budget Newspoll, but Resolve Strategic finds no significant change on three weeks ago.

The post-budget Newspoll finds Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 at the previous poll eight weeks ago. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by one to 38% and the Coalition by four to 35%. All other players are down: the Greens by two to 11%, One Nation by one to 6%, the United Australia Party by one to 1% and all others by one to 9%. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister has slipped from 61-22 to 54-27, and he is down two on approval to 59% and up four on disapproval to 33%. Peter Dutton is up on both approval and disapproval, respectively by four points to 39% and three points to 46%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1500.

The poll also includes the same suite of questions on response to the budget that Newspoll has been posing since the late 1980s, which you can read about here – I’ll have more to say about those later. Note also the other new posts below this one – my own lengthy compendium of New South Wales state election news, and Adrian Beaumont’s coverage of Brazil’s presidential election and other international electoral events.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now there is a Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, with stronger results for Labor: their primary vote is unchanged on the poll three weeks ago at 39%, with the Coalition up two to 32%, the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation down one to 4%, the United Australia Party down two to 1%, independents down one to 8% and others up one to 3%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton by 53-19 as preferred prime minister, in from 55-17 three weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611.

The budget was rated good for “the country as a whole” by 44% and for “me and my household” by 28%, compared with 50% and 40% respectively for the March budget – it’s not clear how many of the remainder particularly rated it as bad. Four options for action on power prices all received strong support: 79% for price caps, 59% for taxpayer subsidies for those on low incomes, 64% for heavily subsidising home solar power and 67% for reserving gas for the local market, with 3%, 14%, 11% and 4% respectively opposed. Thirty-six per cent considered Labor had broken promises to “cut power bills and get wages moving”, with 12% disagreeing and 53% either undecided or considering it too early to say.

UPDATE (Newspoll budget response): For the questions Newspoll asks after every budget, an even 29% rated it both good and bad for the economy, but 47% rated it negative for personal impact compared with only 12% for positive. Thirty-four per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job, with 48% disagreeing. Another question gauged the extent to which respondents felt the budget properly balanced the cost of living and the budget deficit: 6% felt it put too much emphasis on the former, 25% too much emphasis on the latter, 23% felt it struck the right balance and 31% felt it didn’t do enough for either.

This marks the thirty-sixth budget of which Newspoll has asked essentially the same set of questions going back to 1988. The results are the sixth worst for personal impact and the ninth worst for economic impact, although it rates in the middle of the pack on the question of whether the opposition would have done better. The latter point is illustrated by the first of the charts below, which records Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. The second chart illustrates the correlation between positive results on personal and economic impact. In landing right on the trendline, this shows no particular sense that the budget favoured either economic concerns or personal finances relative to its somewhat negative reception overall.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,531 thoughts on “Newspoll and Resolve Strategic post-budget polls (open thread)”

  1. Andrew_Earlwoods,

    We’re buying a lot of c130s because doubling them up as Arial firefighter fleet is pretty easy and a good idea for the future

  2. Oakeshott Country at 7:07 pm
    Indeed they have moved on. Bigly. How about, instead of two drivers and one car they have 2 cars and 2 drivers. One racing, one charging .

  3. I think this gives an indication of the Commissioner’s thinking.

    The royal commissioner, Catherine Holmes, said: “But if you’ve gotten advice, even if it’s in draft form, it’s legal advice. It’s come from lawyers. It’s paid for. It exists. It’s like a child putting its hands over its eyes and thinking you can’t see it.”

    Keeling replied: “I agree with you that once you’ve received the advice there should be action on it regardless of whether it’s draft or not.”

    From the Guardian article linked below.

  4. Re:vehicle battery replacement: Batteries can be dangerous in collisions. In EV’s these days they’re integrated into the frame. If the event is such that the frame crumples, the batteries are the least of your problems. In order for batteries to work, you’d have to install them with quite a lot of precision. If you bump it and damage it, it could be a significant hazard when a larger event occurs. The only real vehicle that could do that tech in todays world would be a train. Even with semi trucks it would be problematic.

    What’s more likely is that trucks will have a side hustle of battery power to the grid when they’re not in motion. They travel. Very handy in emergencies.

  5. Oakeshott Country @ #1436 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 6:42 pm

    The battery swap scheme died quickly – people paying a premium for a car do not want someone else’s dodgy used bit.
    The promoter in Australia was Ben Keneally (husband of) but I am not sure if he had much money in the game or was just a face for the company

    https://www.drive.com.au/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-better-place-20130218-2emmn/

    OC, I raised it in the context of racing cars, in car races.

  6. Hi Itza
    Google some images of modern EV batteries. They are massive and integrated into the frame. Going back to the designs of 2010 when drop in was possible would reverse the leaps in technology that have made EVs competitive for domestic users. The cars of 2010 were not raceable

  7. I was race doctor once at an Oran Park practise session, standing in for a mate. Kerrrist it was boring. No one crashed. No tyres flew off not killing four people in the empty stands. No one had a cardiac arrest. Or bee sting. Or peanut allergy. They just went round and round and round making this godawful noise. And round.

  10. BKsays:
    Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 7:43 pm
    Speers on 7:30 is interviewing the mouthpiece for the Oil and Gas industry about gas prices.
    She is a useless robot.
    ———————-
    Yes BK but at least Speers was hectoring someone from the enemy side for a change!

  12. Where the world is now.

    “The clinical definition of ‘fascism’ is when private concentrated economic power takes government away from the people, turns government into a guarantor, a subsidizer, a covering of corporate power.”
    ~ Ralph Nader

  13. I was disappointed to read of possible low levels of interest in having swapable batteries in EV’s.

    This will be a massive problem for people who live and work in regional areas where long travel distances are normal. If you can’t fill your battery in roughly the same time as it takes to fill a fuel tank, these people won’t buy EV’s. If a progressive government won’t accomodate that, they will vote conservative who will probaly go slow on adoption of EV’s and other CO2 reduction initiatives.

    For all the great ideas about battery charging, you won’t be able to charge a battery quickly, except perhaps for very special applications like car racing, for a long time. Earlier there was discussion about 600KWatt charging. Imagine the size of a primary power source needed to do that to a convoy of vehicles in the middle of the Nullabor.

    If EV’s are to become common in rural and remote areas within the next dozen years or so, replaceable batteries may be the only way to achieve that.

  14. BK:

    Thanks again for posting the link. I could only manage a half hour of the Robodebt RC but I agree that Hirschhorn was an impressive witness. It seems, however, that the ATO wasn’t exactly disappointed with the direction to garnishee the tax returns of those who allegedly owed money. In fact, it was a young woman who had the wherewithal (with the assistance of Gordon Legal ) to commence a class action against the Cth, which led to the Federal Court deciding the whole exercise was a scam. I’m really looking forward to the examination of Morrison & his no-good ministers.

  15. Granny, in rural areas the cost of creating a small solar array and battery would be like placing a thousand petrol stations everywhere. Rural people have the most to gain on the path to renewable energy. The entire point of EVs is that you’re not reliant upon a shipment of fuel. By most accounts, it is a sunny place that we live in.

  16. Pi, I am not arguing about the cost of energy, but the cost of your time as it relates to transport in rural and remote Australia.

    If your work requires you to be on the road for most of an 8 hour day, travelling between jobs, you will not want to sit on your backside for 3 hours or more while the battery in your 4WD recharges.

    The only way to get around that is to have a system that enables rapid battery swaps, or, as is more likely, keep using diesel powered 4WD’s and trucks.

  18. glad bernie smith is going to get rid of donnely in 2023 he might not tecnicaly campaign his extremist through the union any more but the only reason whiy he is in the upper house is that the shoppies backed him maybi don farell can get josh peak the sa secretary a seat seems like he could be an other malinusgas

  19. Ain’t gonna happen that way soz. People haven’t really prepared themselves yet for $15/L petrol. 10L containers in bunnings.

    But hey, I’m an optimist. Once the third-hand EV market happens is the inflection point. At that point you’re transporting batteries all over oz. Like literally everywhere. Road cut off? Fire? Flood? Zombies? Everyone will have enough in their houses and the GW infrastructure that exists everywhere as well to fill all of those batteries. For the people that actually have to do that driving, pool cars have to be an option. Especially if they’ve always got a full tank. Maybe they’ll prefer it when they’re cut off.

  20. Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are preparing to raise the windfall tax on oil and gas company profits to generate an additional £40bn for Treasury over five years, according to reports.

    The prime minister and chancellor are scrambling to find ways to plug a potential £50bn-a-year black hole in the public purse before Mr Hunt’s 17 November autumn statement.

  22. Arkysays:
    Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 4:19 pm
    How pathetic is The Age to leap on the bandwagon of re-reporting on a crash from 9 years ago involving a politicians wife in which there’s never even previously been a suggestion she was at fault for the crash.
    _____________________
    I don’t know what planet you have been living on.
    That car crash has been dodgy since day one.

  23. I suspect that sections of the media will question the appointment of Holmes given she was anointed by Palaszczuk. And given she retired before the statutory age, further questions might be posited.

  25. Granny Anny @ #1466 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 8:11 pm

    Pi, I am not arguing about the cost of energy, but the cost of your time as it relates to transport in rural and remote Australia.

    If your work requires you to be on the road for most of an 8 hour day, travelling between jobs, you will not want to sit on your backside for 3 hours or more while the battery in your 4WD recharges.

    The only way to get around that is to have a system that enables rapid battery swaps, or, as is more likely, keep using diesel powered 4WD’s and trucks.

    Granny, with charge rate and charge times – mindful that there are many variables viz vehicle, battery size and power supply – here’s some examples, and these numbers are ‘of the order’ only

    Our home charger and some Firefox chargers (Woolies, Bondi Beach)
    11Kw
    delivers around 70 Km / hour

    Superchargers level 2 (Gundagai Tesla)
    125Kw
    700 km / hr; 350 Km / half hour
    charge rate varies with where the battery is up to

    Superchargers level 3 (coming)
    300Kw
    say 350 Km / quarter hour

    That’s all just food for thought. You need massive power supplies for multi-outlet Superchargers, but that’s the future.

    We drove from the Highlands (2 hrs south of Sydney CBD) to Melbourne with a 30 min stop at Gundagai, and then two more 15 min stops. All up, 1 hour of charging. The rests you need to have. It will only get better. As for way out bush, once they get major Superchargers in strategic places, and users charge overnight at home, then the scenario you paint of 3 hr backside waits I think would be false.

    eg
    There’s a $50M redevelopment on the Hume Highway at Pheasants Nest with massive facilities for truckies, charging stations (and they’ll be fast), off leash dog area, indigenous reconciliation gardens, etc etc.

  27. So the Andrews car crash has been dodgy since day one?

    nine years ago!

    The Tory press in Melbourne haven’t been able to pin anything on him, or his wife, for nine years.

    Clutching at straws a bit.

  28. Alcohol is the worst drug in our society, by every parameter. Unless that glass has apple juice, he’s taking drugs, legal notwithstanding.

    Gambling is also highly addictive.

    So I for one am with “just like drug dealers”, making money, shit loads, out of addictions.

  29. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 8:46 pm
    When Liberals have nothing else they get in the gutter.. they have spent a life time there.
    ————————————
    And Taylormade resides in a worn pond.

  31. For a bit of humour:

    Qantas has slammed consumer watchdog Choice for giving it a ‘Shonky’ award and labelling it one of the worst companies in Australia while dubbing the airline the ‘Spirit of Disappointment’.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11383757/Qantas-angry-Shonky-award-Choice-named-Spirit-Disappointment.html
    Someone needs a hug.

    FYI the other ‘winners’ are:
    * VetPay – for a credit product that’s heavy on charges but light on detail.
    * Steggles Chicken Nuggets Boosted with Veggies – for hiding veggies so well that we could barely find them.
    * Bloomex – for flowers that don’t deliver.
    * Zega Digital cookware – for an expensive “self-cooking” smart pot that doesn’t properly cook.

  32. ” I don’t know what planet you have been living on.
    That car crash has been dodgy since day one.”

    I call bullshit. The Liberal-Murdoch dirt units had to go back 9 years to dig up something long since done and dusted, they couldn’t find anything more recent. Are they exploiting the victims of an accident for political gain? Absolutely disgraceful. After the election, they’ll drop it like a hot potato, as has happened with these sort of beat-ups time and time again.

  33. Late Riser @ #1481 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 8:53 pm

    For a bit of humour:

    Qantas has slammed consumer watchdog Choice for giving it a ‘Shonky’ award and labelling it one of the worst companies in Australia while dubbing the airline the ‘Spirit of Disappointment’.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11383757/Qantas-angry-Shonky-award-Choice-named-Spirit-Disappointment.html
    Someone needs a hug.

    FYI the other ‘winners’ are:
    * VetPay – for a credit product that’s heavy on charges but light on detail.
    * Steggles Chicken Nuggets Boosted with Veggies – for hiding veggies so well that we could barely find them.
    * Bloomex – for flowers that don’t deliver.
    * Zega Digital cookware – for an expensive “self-cooking” smart pot that doesn’t properly cook.

    I see Mike Carlton gave Qantas a hearty well earned three cheers.

    Hope you enjoy the little book as much as I did.

  35. I have the occasional flutter on the pokies but endorse the measures
    almost advocated by Perrottet:

    [‘NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has committed to mandatory cashless gaming cards in clubs and pubs but has stopped short of saying when or how the technology would be rolled out as Labor warned attempts to combat money laundering could do more harm than good.

    Brushing aside opposition from within his own government, Perrottet on Thursday said he was committed to implementing the cards following a damning NSW Crime Commission investigation into the billions of dollars being laundered through poker machines each year.

    “This is not a knee-jerk response [but] I can’t be clearer in relation to the direction we are heading. This is not a matter of if we do it, it’s a matter of how we do it,” he said.’]

    NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has committed to mandatory cashless gaming cards in clubs and pubs but has stopped short of saying when or how the technology would be rolled out as Labor warned attempts to combat money laundering could do more harm than good.

    Brushing aside opposition from within his own government, Perrottet on Thursday said he was committed to implementing the cards following a damning NSW Crime Commission investigation into the billions of dollars being laundered through poker machines each year.

    “This is not a knee-jerk response [but] I can’t be clearer in relation to the direction we are heading. This is not a matter of if we do it, it’s a matter of how we do it,” he said.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-promises-cashless-gaming-card-for-clubs-and-pubs-20221103-p5bvcp.html

    This young man wouldn’t know if he’s Arthur of Martha. I predict that Minns will accordingly take the mantle next March. Pepys.

  36. Catl’s upcoming ev battery, the Qilin, promises a range of up to 1000k and fast charge times from 10-80% in 10 mins.

    I’ve no doubt the real world range will be much lower, but even at 700k I think those fast charge times will be acceptable for many, even those in regional areas.

    Imagine what we’ll have in a couple more years?

  38. @Mavis, replying to Rakali:

    “ [‘Just like drug dealers, only legal …’]

    That’s a bit over the top.”

    _____

    Quite right, I am scratching my head over exactly how this all became legalised.

  39. Must be the job of someone at Murdoch or in the Libs to raise this at politically significant times:

    Catherine Andrews car crash: Daniel Andrews moves to end ‘shameful’ rumours about Blairgowrie collision
    By Stephanie Chalkley-Rhoden
    Posted Thu 26 Oct 2017 at 11:40amThursday 26 Oct 2017 at 11:40am, updated Thu 26 Oct 2017 at 1:33pm
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-26/daniel-andrews-moves-to-end-rumours-2013-blairgowrie-car-crash/9087888

  42. I have not watched Q&A for a number of years and basically since Jones left the hosting role

    Watched for 5 minutes tonight and that was enough

    The hosting of the program is abysmal because the host IS the program

    All we get is the opinion of the host hence the constant interruptions which are just plain rude

    The program is designed for audience participation

    Not for the ego of a presenter, a presenter with no responsibilities

    IF these presenters are of such knowledge why aren’t they in public life putting themselves up for election?

    And a car crash from 9 years ago

    Hopefully the electorate rid us of what the so called Liberal Party has become

    And they reform on the basis of the Independents who are replacing them across our Parliaments in what were their “blue ribbon” electorates

  43. Itza,
    My Plugshare app doesn’t show any EV chargers at Gundagai. ( Unless I’ve missed it!)
    Where did you charge?
    Took me much longer from Sydney to Melbourne in my Kona.

  44. A new three-word slogan? “Real not Teal”

    I’m guessing she’s a “spoiler” candidate to harvest some of the cheesed off vote and direct it via preferences to the Coalition candidate.

    EDIT: She’s a Liberal, or maybe a RWNJ (but maybe I repeat myself) – “Glamorous aspiring politician’s racist rants against Indigenous people are revealed ahead of election – as she issues a grovelling apology”: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8754105/Council-candidates-racist-Facebook-posts-against-Indigenous-revealed-ahead-election.html

  45. Lawyers aren’t the Pope and I’ve got no problem with clients, including public sector ones, disregarding their advice if they think it’s open to question. However, you’d think they would still need an alternate legal opinion. No evidence of that in Robodebt.

    More generally, I thought the practice was (when you were being careful in terms of controversial matters) to ask your legal counsel for oral views first, before they put anything on paper. Again, no evidence of this here. So what does that mean? Just the way DSS does business? The proposal being so routine that handling as a controversial matter was unnecessary?

    All very curious – or maybe not curious at all – just standard DHS/DSS practice, including minimal need for proper treatment, given the demonisation of the target base.

  46. Jane Agirtan: hmmm a quick google identifies her as an active Liberal Party member as late as 2020, even though an ‘independent’ local councillor. She was previously caught up in a racism storm for posting anti indigenous memes on her Facebook Page, corruption allegations involving a local mattress business and oh … she’s an accountant specialising in tax minimisation.

    That took me all of 30 seconds research …

    A real independent candidate … apparently.

  47. not shore how long hog was secretary fore but think he left in 1996 to become a senater and his succesor was hopelis who later entered the senate for a few years but unlike hogg made litle contrabution other then taking over the banking comity in senate

  49. The only thing I’ll say regarding the SDA is have a read of the EBA’s they negotiated, barstewards aren’t a unions arsehole.
    Oh and I have. They’re shocking.
    As a former union rep I and my fellow organisers would of been hung, drawn and quartered if we’d tried presenting a poofteenth of the stuff they dish up.

  50. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1497 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 8:57 pm

    Jane Agirtan: hmmm a quick google identifies her as an active Liberal Party member as late as 2020, even though an ‘independent’ local councillor. She was previously caught up in a racism storm for posting anti indigenous memes on her Facebook Page, corruption allegations involving a local mattress business and oh … she’s an accountant specialising in tax minimisation.

    That took me all of 30 seconds research …

    A real independent candidate … apparently.

    You’re not a normal voter? 😉 But my interest was in how Teals are being identified as a party like entity. (And the use of a three-word slogan.) I wonder in how many minds “Teals” already are a party.

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