Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

Comments Page 36 of 39
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  1. @Steve Davis – Labor were the ones who said Labor would fail to meet their Christmas commitment.

    The commitment was to have FICAC *legislated* by Christmas. Not just to have it introduced in the lower house.

    My understanding is that, from here, it will be referred to committee (pretty sure that was on the Guardian live blog) and that it has zero chance of being legislated (passed both houses and signed by GG) prior to Christmas.

    The entire thing’s a little bit overblown, as long as it’s dealt with in one of the earlier sitting weeks in 2023. But we need to be consistent with the truth here. Labor promised to legislate it by Christmas. They are not on track to deliver that. Introducing it to the HoR and sending it to a committee does not meet their election commitment. The journalists are correct.

  4. Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    …. But we need to be consistent with the truth here….
    ==========================================
    Excellent.
    Like how the Greens support the Statement from the Heart?
    Like how the Greens policies really are budgeted?
    Like how Labor/Coalition are same old same old?

  5. The political model for the Crossbenchers has been clear since day 1.
    1. Ambit claim.
    2. Fail to achieve objectives.
    3. Bloviate to the max extent in public.
    4. Stunt to the max extent.
    5. Pass whatever.
    6. Claim credit for whatever. (Like voting FOR the Voice having first tried to cut it down).
    7. Blame Labor for the rest – including the costs of the ambit claims, the delays and the less-than-perfect outcomes.

    This is all both predictable and tiresome.

    But it is what it is.

    Wreckers wreck
    Blockers block
    Builders build.

  6. Labor promised to legislate it by Christmas. They are not on track to deliver that.

    This is no different to when a party promises to legislate anything, it is all about intent. Anyone with half a brain understands that the government doesn’t control the senate. In fact we did not know if Labor would be able to pass the climate legislation any time soon or ever despite their commitment to end the climate wars, because we understood that the Greens could potentially block it.

    Journalist who think this is a big deal just shows once again how bad the profession has fallen.

  7. …imagine the outcry if Labor pushed legislation through both Houses, without allowing amendments or consultation, in order to comply with the letter of an election promise.

    And then, of course, journalists wonder why politicians obfuscate rather than giving a definite answer.

  8. @Nicko – not sure if your reply was specifically at me or not? I definitely agree, this is a big deal being made out of nothing. Labor set themselves an election commitment with basically no buffer. Then QEII died and their timeframe was blown. It’s standard “we will deliver X within 100 days” stuff. The timeframes are always ambitious and rarely deliverable. But as you say, as long as solid progress is made within the timeframe, it’s not that big a deal.

    My point was just that Labor supporters can’t point to today as “election commitment delivered”. We are still in “election commitment not quite delivered on time, due to unforeseen circumstances outside of Labor’s control”.

  9. Everyone knew that if the Greens held the Senate and/or House BOP there would be delays.

    Perhaps the promises now need to be routinely amended to with the following rider: ‘Subject to unnecessary delays by the Greens.’

  11. Thanks for the Dawn Patrol BK, from Florence.

    We’ll, Italians got exactly what they wanted (I think only about 51% voted) let’s hope they don’t regret it, but I’m not confident.

  13. The AUD is plunging. This is going to drive up inflation on items that we import (almost everything that is highly manufactured like cars, electronics, clothes, footwear etc). So Tuesday week, we are going to get another rate rise and it will probably still have to be 0.5% or more too.

  16. B.S. Fairman @ #1763 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 3:06 pm

    The AUD is plunging. This is going to drive up inflation on items that we import (almost everything that is highly manufactured like cars, electronics, clothes, footwear etc). So Tuesday week, we are going to get another rate rise and it will probably still have to be 0.5% or more too.

    Doing well vs the pound sterling! ANd not too bad v Euro and Yen?

  19. Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    1m
    It’s a big call, I know.

    But let me explain.

    The latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report has just come out, and it’s got some really good news.

    We’ve slashed our state’s emissions by almost 30% since 2005 – double our target.

  20. Is part of the warm and fuzzy makeover of Mr Dutton that he restrict himself to one question during QT.

    He did try a couple of failing PIOs!

    Is his heart really in it?

  21. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 3:44 pm

    Boerwar @ #1752 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 2:40 pm

    dave
    It is stories like that that give me hope.

    Have you heard about the Sundrop system south of Port Augusta? A concentrated solar system to desal water for, power, cool and heat a large adjacent greenhouse for high intensity food production.’
    ———————————————-
    Yep. I have seen it. It is like something out of a sci fi novel.
    Just to the south of Sundrop, heading north, you debouch from a range of hills featuring clapped out sheep country. As you reach the flatlands you travel through clapped out wheat country. Both these feature deserted farmsteads.
    Then ahead you see something like a mini-sun in sky. It almost blinds. Then you pass the most productive couple of hectares in South Australia – Sundrop.
    From the south you used to be able to see the old coal-fired power station – now torn down.
    The whole experience is absolutely fantastic.
    Downsides: using Dutch technology instead of Australian technology, possible over-salinsation of the breeding grounds of giant squid, and distance to markets.

    https://www.google.com/search?source=univ&tbm=isch&q=giant+squid+breeding+grounds+sundrop+spencer+gulf&client=firefox-b-d&fir=biYcx2JgXjdPtM%252CGk-hThb4JBGI6M%252C_%253BqbbxFrccksJ8fM%252CZon8tVQ_n7VQtM%252C_%253BZu0L7Ad40wC4eM%252Cl7Bvw_VYDX4BVM%252C_%253B5D2eN5ENEqX4oM%252CK99mwHiFRSZxvM%252C_%253BfXMTMQHrGiF0iM%252CkWcMXSKdPHmC3M%252C_%253BzbCYJcXiXZrM7M%252Cl7Bvw_VYDX4BVM%252C_%253B_3Y9QXniaBnSzM%252CCaD9Y87GLuwV6M%252C_%253BCh9IsBgTYBY7qM%252CkWcMXSKdPHmC3M%252C_%253B8XWyd0mvvMu3ZM%252CLBvwpz16TU-tiM%252C_%253BnxoFR0uyggFS7M%252Cq6OfE5BS3-J6AM%252C_&usg=AI4_-kSKX6dRVdO9WfPGfXlHWNeMzKYEMA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWgIvm4rH6AhU82jgGHatYBzoQjJkEegQIAhAC&biw=1920&bih=899&dpr=1

  22. B.S. Fairman @ #1764 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 3:36 pm

    The AUD is plunging. This is going to drive up inflation on items that we import (almost everything that is highly manufactured like cars, electronics, clothes, footwear etc). So Tuesday week, we are going to get another rate rise and it will probably still have to be 0.5% or more too.

    Is the Trade Weighted Index still a thing? All I can find is definitions. But playing with XE.COM you can pull up AUD versus other currencies to get a feeling for what’s happening. For example, here’s AUD versus South Korean Won.
    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=KRW&view=1W

    Just skimming and roughly judging I get this for the last week of exchange rates.
    AUD is gaining against: GBP
    AUD is stable against: EUR, JPY, NZD, CNY, UAH, KRW
    AUD is falling against: USD, CAD, INR, CHF

    So overall, I agree the AUD is falling, but it could be argued that the North American currencies are climbing, and the UK is not a happy place.

  23. Will Labor support this motion …?

    Mehreen Faruqi
    @MehreenFaruqi
    This afternoon @larissawaters and I have lodged a Senate motion censuring Senator Hanson for her anti-migrant attack telling me to “piss off back to Pakistan”.

    I call on all my colleagues to support the motion and affirm that racism has no place in our public debate.

  24. It’s amazing how the Shadow Opposition Ministers have all these helpful suggestions for what the government should do (just watching Karen Andrews on Afternoon Briefing spruiking her private Members Bill to increase the penalties for cyber attacks).

    Pity they could never seem to rub their brain cells together when in government to generate enough light and heat to come up with it then.

  25. Mehreen and Larissa can go to the Human Rights Commission and lodge a formal protest. If they’re interested in more than a parliamentary stunt, that is.

  28. Rex

    Hanson’s attack is ‘anti-migrant’, IMO.

    Indeed, I have copped the same sort of attacks from ‘native’ Australians. That is to say, ironically, non-Indigenous Australians whose only claim to some sort of special status is that they were born in Australia.

    I am not sure how Hanson’s statements were also racist. There was no mention of race. There were no racist tropes.

    Aside from that, would the comments that triggered Hanson’s abuse stand the same level of scrutiny?

  29. Whatever. I didn’t know Hanson had said that, so there’s a lot more who didn’t. If this gives air to that kind of call it whatever you fuckn like, then good. Very good. The more who know the better. There’s a lot who’ll agree, and there’s a lot lot more who will be appalled.

  31. Luigi Smith @ #1593 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 2:51 pm

    Australia’s National Service Act 1964 did not select individuals: it selected birth dates by lottery. It also allowed a deferment of training obligation for tertiary students (and CMF members and conscientious objectors).
    So no individual selection conspiracy could have deliberately targetted medical students at any university.

    Then Luigi, how do you explain that in my Chem Eng class, Bernard G was selected, and Peter W was not, despite the fact that they had the same birthday. Just one of those things, I suppose. Myself and 23 others, including both of them, are meeting up this Friday in Chippendale, at our regular quarterly lunch and chat. In our year, there was one and one only supporter of the Vietnam war, and Santamaria, and the DLP. He’ll be there too. Now he raves about Lomborg. A right fuckwit.

    You could also try to explain how some dozen or so ‘conscientious objectors’ were sentenced to gaol, including Simon Townsend, who spent a month in Long Bay, was forcibly enrolled, then imprisoned by the Army, and court marshalled while there.

    Likewise William “Bill” White, who was a Sydney school teacher during the Vietnam War. In July 1966, White defied a notice to report for duty at an army induction centre. White was the first Australian to be a public conscientious objector to the Vietnam War. Both this initial application for total exemption and subsequent appeals were rejected. White was removed from his classroom and ordered to report to Army quarters at Watsons Bay. He refused to comply and waited at home for the authorities to make the next move.

    This standoff lasted for several days and gained wide press coverage causing considerable embarrassment for the Australian Government. The standoff ended when White was, quite literally, dragged from his home after refusing to comply with an order to enter the army. A photo of this event became a potent symbol of the nature of conscription. He was jailed just before the 1966 election, on 26 November, and continued to seek conscientious objector status until he eventually succeeded on 23 December 1966.

    In the clear light of all of the above, I believe that you are full of **it, Luigi, with zero credibility. Lying when you are easily fact checked and refuted, by those of us with direct personal experience, is pretty brain dead. You have labelled yourself. Possibly time to change handles.

  34. Then Luigi, how do you explain that in my Chem Eng class, Bernard G was selected, and Peter W was not, despite the fact that they had the same birthday.

    * A lot of people have the same birthday.
    * Not everyone with the same birthday was chosen.
    * It was pure coincidence they were in the same class, one chosen, one not.

    Otherwise, you can have your conspiracy theory, if it makes you feel better.

  38. On Afghanistan and Iraq:
    – I was opposed to Australia’s involvement in the invasion of Iraq from the start. Asking for trouble. And we got trouble.
    – I at first supported invading Afghanistan to get Bin Laden. When that failed though I thought we should get out by 2005/06. Once Bin Laden was killed in the Pakistan raid I thought we had absolutely no business in Afghanistan. Classic mission creep.

  39. Soc
    Never start a war without a clear war aim.
    Never start a war without a clear exit strategy.
    Never start a war that you can’t win.
    etc, etc, etc.

  40. Late Riser
    “AUD is gaining against: GBP
    AUD is stable against: EUR, JPY, NZD, CNY, UAH, KRW
    AUD is falling against: USD, CAD, INR, CHF”

    There has never been a better time to sign a long term contract in Aussie dollars for a British (or French) designed submarine.
    There has never been a worse time to buy a US designed submarine.

  41. Boerwar
    “Never start a war without a clear war aim.
    Never start a war without a clear exit strategy.
    Never start a war that you can’t win.
    etc, etc, etc.”

    +100

  42. Racism is a factor in the almost universal human tribalism.
    Misogyny is another.
    Discrimination of disability and mental differences is another.
    Anti LGBTQIA+ is yet another.
    The class war promoted for the wealthy is another.
    Flag-worshipping nationalism is yet another.
    I might add that Labor-Greens fighting on PB is also
    All are indications of immaturity. Grow up – practice tolerance – but struggle against intolerance and the other extremes.

  44. Interesting polling on the Voice, showing that, once again, the Greens are the only party representing the majority of Australians.

    The Labor/Boerwar view, that the Voice will achieve practical outcomes, got a massive 27% support – a whole 1% higher than “don’t know”.

    The view that the Voice will be primarily/entirely symbolic, will achieve little/no practical outcomes/is not proper recognition, is supported by 47%.

    Australia is demanding Labor do more. Why do they continue to ignore voters. On this, on climate change, on ICAC.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/burney-flags-overhaul-of-referendum-laws-before-voice-vote-20220926-p5bkyf.html

    This is much more informative than polling about “will you vote yes or no”. If you ask someone lost in a desert whether they want one drop of water, they will say yes. But it’s not what they need.

  45. C@tmomma at 4.34

    “Some people will believe any old guff in order to support their preconceived biases.”
    That’s what you said last Friday and I had to chuckle when I saw it came from you.
    You appear quite prepared to believe anything and everything put forward by the turds so long as it supports your all-way-with-LBJ mindset.
    To paraphrase a familiar saying, I don’t believe there was a conspiracy wrt the Conscription draft, I know there was.
    You’re showing your DLP background Michaelia.
    Yes, I am cross.

  46. Boerwar at 4:42 pm
    Did you like the part in that letter where only one sort of racism is to be condemned rather than all racism ? Rather ‘racist’ don’t you think ? 😉

  47. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 4:56 pm

    Interesting polling on the Voice, showing that, once again, the Greens are the only party representing the majority of Australians.

    The Labor/Boerwar view, that the Voice will achieve practical outcomes, got a massive 27% support – a whole 1% higher than “don’t know”.
    …’
    ——————————–
    This is increasingly desperate stuff from you.
    What I did recommend was that you asked Indigenous peoples whether the Voice was purely ‘symbolic’.

    You guys need to stop listening to yourselves. You also need to stop listening to Labor. You should stop listening to me.

    You should start listening to the majority of Indigenous people.

    You might be surprised at what you hear.

    It would do Bwana Bandt a world of good to realize that he is on the wrong side of history, on the wrong side of Australia’s race debate and on the wrong side of good policy.

    Why, if it is meaningless symbolism, did the majority of First Nations Peoples adopt Voice, Makarrata and Treaty in that order?

    Don’t they understand that the whitefella Greens are infallible on what is good for Indigenous people?

  48. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 5:00 pm

    Boerwar at 4:42 pm
    Did you like the part in that letter where only one sort of racism is to be condemned rather than all racism ? Rather ‘racist’ don’t you think ? ‘
    ———————————-
    This confuses me. If it refers to the Faruqi motion all I have done is ask people to show how Hanson’s words are racist. They are nativist. They are offensive. They are anti-migrant. But is there a reference to race?

  49. Jokes aside, at current exchange rates, if Australia is going to buy some foreign built SSNs to cover the gap before locally built SSNs from AUKUS will start arriving, we could literally buy 2 Suffrens for the price of 1 Virginia.

    1 Suffren SSN = 1.7B Euro = $2.6B Aus ($3B Aus with US combat system)
    1 Virginia SSN = $3.6B US = $5.5B Aus

    3 Suffrens would fully replace the Collins in terms of capability and if double crewed (a common practice with SSNs) would allow all the RAN crews to transition across to SSNs.

  50. C@t,
    You asked about NDIS jobs on the West coast of Tasmania the other day. I know 5/10ths of 3/8ths of bugger all about the way it works but there are a few jobs listed online for the area.
    Someone else asked my thoughts about Brisbane, it’s ok but personally I prefer around Atherton or places out further west from the coast.
    Some of the best Queenslanders I met were from around Charleville. One bloke my father and me met in the pub invited us out to his farm for a look around.
    Accepting the invite we asked for directions to the place too be told,
    “Take blah blah road out of town then take the first turn on the right, that’s my drive way. Leads straight to the house”.
    Thinking ok we asked how far thinking we’d get a reply of, “oh a couple of K’s”.
    The reply we got left us a wee bit stunned as he calmly replied, “it’s only short….80 K’s”.
    I’d hate to see a long driveway.

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