Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is up one to 62% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

Comments Page 39 of 39
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  1. Remember to fill up in the next couple of days Bludgers.
    Could save yourself a good $20 bucks at the bowser by getting in before the price rise.
    Am thinking about taking a couple of jerrycans down to fill up as well.

  2. Conscripts can make good soldiers but they need to trained well and motivated to fight. The Russians do not seem to be doing the first and they wore out the motivational stage before mobilisation.
    The Ukrainian Army contains conscripts but they have a very good reason to fight and therefore are mostly highly motivated.
    The allies in WW2 spent quite a lot of effort on motivating the troops (Frank Cappa’s “Why we fight” is a prefect example of the tools they used) because every nation used conscripts.

  3. Dutton on 4 Corners.. if Copper Peter was going to expose his soft side he can count this as a life defining failure.. a real low life.

  4. Victoriasays:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:36 pm
    My mail is that Jed Anderson is the main complainant.
    He was a former player at Hawthorn, and currently at North Melbourne (now out of contract) is the one who went to the media.
    He doesnt want clarkson to coach North.
    _____________________
    He was also one of the players who kicked up an almighty fuss about getting the jab.
    May not be the easiest player to coach.

  5. Conscription for those not old enough to vote just another historical aspect of non liberalism for the ridiculously named despicable Australian Liberal party.

  6. Poliphilli and wranslide,
    Like your opinion of me counts for anything.
    Scroll past if you want, but I know you just can’t. Otherwise you wouldn’t have anything to bitch and moan about in order to try and puff yourselves up here. 😀

    Oh, and wranslide, stop making crap up. Like @ 7.37pm. I never said that.

    For the record, what I did say was that China produce 100 year plans. I corrected myself about 500 year plans. You seem to have left that out.
    Also, it’s my fault that I fell for the Chinese propaganda about the strength of their military. I won’t make that mistake again.
    Oh and can I say, get a life? Because if you are saying that I am here all day, every day, then you must be here all day watching. 🙂

  7. Taylormadesays:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 9:09 pm
    _____________________
    He was also one of the players who kicked up an almighty fuss about getting the jab.
    May not be the easiest player to coach.
    _______________________
    LOL Yaylormade and you were such an expert confident AFL GF tipster not.

  8. B.S.Fairman,
    I saw footage of a Ukrainian Passing Out Parade today. They think of everything when it comes to creating an esprit de corps. Like today they had one young man who was taking his oath, when his father, who had been a Russian POW until a few days ago, emerged from behind the lines to surprise him and see him again for the first time in months. 🙂

  9. A full tank, say 70-75 litres, would go up by about $15-17 when the excise is restored. Not worth going overboard for, certainly not storing inflammable liquids in jerry cans.

  10. Steve777says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 9:31 pm
    A full tank, say 70-75 litres, would go up by about $15-17 when the excise is restored. Not worth going overboard for, certainly not storing inflammable liquids in jerry cans.
    —————————-
    Pyromania not to be overlooked.
    Could be Matt Guy supporters last desperation!

  11. Taylormade says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 8:59 pm
    Remember to fill up in the next couple of days Bludgers.
    Could save yourself a good $20 bucks at the bowser by getting in before the price rise.
    Am thinking about taking a couple of jerrycans down to fill up as well.
    中华人民共和国
    Be careful cobber. Make sure you use approved containers and store them properly. The fumes especially can be very dangerous. When you decant them ensure you are extra careful.

    Upnorth we always had stand alone fuel storage and I’ve seen first hand what can happen to kids and adults from a stray spark or storage in a closed in space.

    No matter how much we LOL you cobber I would be mortified if anything went wrong.

  12. Yuge news from Labour Conference …

    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall

    NEW: Labour commits to renationalisation of the railways. Shadow Transport Sec @LouHaigh
    : “Labour in power will bring our railways back into public ownership as contracts expire.”
    __________________________________________________________

    Chris Hopkins
    @ChrisHopkins92

    The @SavantaComRes MRP poll released yesterday at a @LabourList
    fringe showed that *all 632 GB constituencies* support public ownership of the railways. Average support is 73.1%, high of 77.4% (Dunbartonshire East) and a low of 69.7% (Harrow East)

  13. Ray (UK) says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 9:47 pm
    Yuge news from Labour Conference …

    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall

    NEW: Labour commits to renationalisation of the railways. Shadow Transport Sec @LouHaigh
    : “Labour in power will bring our railways back into public ownership as contracts expire.”
    中华人民共和国
    We that’s chalk and cheese compared to the big tax cuts for the rich by the Tories. Setting the stage Ray.

  14. Actually the Petrol Stations have generally priced the excise rise already in. In Melbourne, there are a lot of stations that have petrol at 1.90 per litre today, despite the fact that the wholesale price today was 1.47 per litre. Oil prices dropped quite a lot over the weekend but the dollars plunge will decrease the effect of that.

  15. Boerwar @ 7:09
    Racism, nativism, etc., etc., is all the same shit.’]
    ….’
    —————————
    It is not, actually. US nativism in the early 19th century was directed at the Irish. Australia had a strain of the same: ‘INNA’ on shop windows (in relation to a job ad) as late as the 1960’s. “Irish Need Not Apply”.

    Are the Irish not a race or is racism only related to skin colour?

    You could perhaps call the discrimination the Irish suffered in Australia until the 1960s sectarianism but the net effect whether called that or racism was the same

  16. Eyup now then

    Looks like Labour is committing to reverse bus deregulation as well 🙂 .. that 1985 decision by Maggie was one of the worst things she did IMO

    South Yorkshire’s cheap buses were legendary back in the day 🙂

  17. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 9:17 pm
    Poliphilli and wranslide,
    Like your opinion of me counts for anything.
    Scroll past if you want, but I know you just can’t. Otherwise you wouldn’t have anything to bitch and moan about in order to try and puff yourselves up here.

    ——

    No puffery here. Just facts. You are the best google searcher known to man. There is no argument you cannot justify by reference to obscure internet references. The Poll Bludgers very own Trump.

  18. The markets are pricing in an additional 2% rate rise in the UK by the end of November. 18 months ago 5 year UK bonds (gilts) were almost 0% today; they are 4.5% (up almost a 1% in 2 days).
    Pound seems to have found a point of stability at the moment but it probably won’t last for long. The markets don’t trust Truss and her new crew. I saw someone describe this as a moron premium.

  19. Heh Bludgers!

    Just be nice to each other, ok? Calm down, all of you.

    I enjoy most of your comments but it pains me to se some of you arking up at each other.

    We need to learn to disagree without name calling.

    Now, let’s get this federal ICAC up and running, with teeth and retrospectivity!

  20. Racism, sectarianism, homophobia, etc etc – all the same thing – disdain, distrust and often loathing, sometimes murderous hatred, for the “other”, however defined. It tends to be coupled with over-strong identification with the in-group, however defined. Religious zealotry, extreme nationalism etc. It’s a defining feature of the Right. I think it’s why the the Right-wingers are so paranoid about immigration, for example.


  21. B.S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 9:00 pm
    Conscripts can make good soldiers but they need to trained well and motivated to fight. The Russians do not seem to be doing the first and they wore out the motivational stage before mobilisation.
    The Ukrainian Army contains conscripts but they have a very good reason to fight and therefore are mostly highly motivated.
    The allies in WW2 spent quite a lot of effort on motivating the troops (Frank Cappa’s “Why we fight” is a prefect example of the tools they used) because every nation used conscripts.

    Not true that every nation used conscripts in WW2. But never mind.

  22. Mavis says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 8:31 pm
    There’s scant evidence that conscripts make good soldiers:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/01/shaken-russian-army-conscripts-make-perfect-targets-for-morale-crushing-operations/?sh=40d8cb1551f8
    ——————————————
    Pleased to see someone else is starting to make the point about the importance of morale. From experience, even on successful operations it is an exhausting business and proportionally more so as time is extended. This is exponentially worse for those on the losing side with only fear and little moral imperative to drive them forward.

  23. The National
    @ScotNational
    5h

    BREAKING: Letters of no confidence in Liz Truss are already coming in, according to reports
    _________________________________________________________

    Aubrey Allegretti
    @breeallegretti
    5h

    Fury from a Tory MP who says talk of no confidence letters going in is not misplaced.

    “My colleagues will rule nothing in and rule nothing out,” they say.

    “There will come a time where people have to say ‘I know it’ll make us look chaotic, but we can’t go on like this.”

  24. Agnes Chambre
    @AgnesChambre

    Tory MP + former minister: “Liz if f*cked… You cannot have monetary policy and fiscal policy at loggerheads. Something has to give.”

    “They are already putting letters in as think she will crash the economy.”

  25. First post-budget poll

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton

    Labour leads by 13%, tied largest lead for Labour that we’ve recorded.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25 Sept.):

    Labour 44% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 4% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 21 Sept

  26. imacca says:
    Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:01 pm
    This worth a read for those following the Ukraine thing. I think IWS is a fairly conservative site and while their maps tend to be a day or so behind some other sites i think they are based on more properly confirmed info…most of the time.

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25

    Have a look at the map around Lyman. Looks to me like both main ground lines of supply are under serious threat. I am going to do a bit more searching but i think RU 1st Guards Army that got out of Izium is currently in Lyman?? If the Ukrainians cut off / cause RU pull out / encircle?? Lyman….. then that’s a major defeat.
    ———————————————————————————————
    I found the comment below from the assessment to be unusually strong for a usually conservative journal.

    “This mobilization will not affect the course of the conflict in 2022 and may not have a very dramatic impact on Russia’s ability to sustain its current level of effort into 2023. The problems undermining Putin’s effort to mobilize his people to fight, finally, are so deep and fundamental that he cannot likely fix them in the coming months—and possibly for years. Putin is likely coming up against the hard limits of Russia’s ability to fight a large-scale war.”

    I share this view in light of the information we’ve seen thus far. I believe Russia can hold ground to some extent but any further genuinely successful strategic gains are likely to be few and far between. In the medium to long term however, this is unsustainable logistically and runs a high risk of significant losses in manpower and weapons to well informed Ukrainian intelligence (credit to USA). Furthermore, growing risk to Russian control of Kherson through an inability to resupply existing troops or to rotate troops is problematic for Putin as it’s loss would be an unambiguous defeat with clear impacts on morale.

  27. A NASA spacecraft will deliberately slam into an asteroid in a couple of hours. The DART mission, or the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, will crash into the space rock after launching 10 months ago. The spacecraft will attempt to affect the motion of an asteroid in space. The mission is heading for Dimorphos, a small moon orbiting the near-Earth asteroid Didymos. The asteroid system poses no threat to Earth, NASA officials have said, making it a perfect target to test out a kinetic impact – which may be needed if an asteroid is ever on track to hit Earth.

  28. Someone, probably Labor, is doing phone polling in the seat of Geelong, currently held by the ALP. Asked a single question, who’d I’d vote for at the upcoming state election, giving me the options of Lab, Lib, Greens, One Nation, Other or Undecided. Could possibly be one of the seats, like seats in Melbourne’s outer west, that they’re nervous about losing. It’d be massive shock tbh if that were to eventuate (Christine Couzens is generally a good MP).

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