Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is up one to 62% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 39
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  1. “[Dutton’s] deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19”

    Whacko! They’ll be dancing in the streets of Dickson: Dutts is on the turn!

  2. Essential:

    “Dutton’s is down three on *positive* to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on *positive* to 34%.”

    Typo there, William?

  3. There’s just so little in this for Dutton and the Coalition, not even green shoots. Albo is giving Dutton nothing whatsoever to work with and the rare few Dutton comments have simply appeared churlish.

  4. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50.

    I think support for Charles will wane the longer he is king and once the queen’s death is no longer so fresh.

    Of all of them Charles symbolises the born to rule thing and the longer he is there, the more out of touch and irrelevant the monarchy will seem to Australia (for those of us who don’t already think the monarchy is out of touch and irrelevant!). Deferring pursuit of the republic referendum until the next term of government is the best option for it to succeed.

  5. “Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time.”…

    I don’t think that anybody within the ALP will lose any sleep on that…. So far, so good. Stay the course and progress that ALP Social Democratic program…

  6. “Confessions says:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 5:43 am”

    Re: Charlie and the Republic

    Talks about a change to a Republic are also starting in the UK. All “Charles” kings have been quite dramatic: Charles I, decapitated by Cromwell; Charles II restored the Anglican-Monarchy with an iron fist…. Will Charles III end the Monarchy for good?

  7. From the previous thread:

    Cronus:

    “ No force in this condition is in any position to win battles far less a war, regardless of numerical superiority.”

    Me:

    “It seemed to work for the Red Army at some critical times during WW2.”

    Cronus:

    “I would say the Russian army of WWII shared one key similarity with the Ukrainian army of 2022, they were both fighting existential wars. The impact of that element on the psyche of the combatant is imo enormous. Real morale is not so much a matter of bravado (everyone is confident when the going is good) but rather of resilience, even fanaticism against all odds through a belief that what one is doing is indisputably right and necessary.”

    ___________

    While I agree, the fact remains that during a large part of the Great Patriotic War the Red Army had – and used – troops stationed behind the frontline shock troops to shoot any soldiers that fled in the face of the enemy. Morale actually improved (eventually) overtime, as the Red Army because more effective. I recall one report from a Commissar expressing his amazement that ‘this time’ they didn’t even have to shoot any of their own.

  8. Morning all. Thanks for the polling lead in William. On this:

    “ When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50.”

    I think that is the high water mark for monarchy support in Australia. That was with a massive, and obviously pre-planned, media barrage with the Palace PR machine and all far right news media playing along.

    Albo was correct to wait on a republic. Lets see how it looks after the various inquiries show better what was going on with our GG and last PM.

  9. Sure, ‘they’ make commercial EVs, but who in their right might would actually buy one?

    This offering from Mercedes Benz will set you back around $100K once you get on the road. For very little power, reduced carrying capacity and real life very long recharge times (which a real courier would have to do twice a day I’d suggest).

    https://youtu.be/jIVb3bxltDc

  10. Cronus/AE

    I think one important difference between the Russian army now and the Soviet army in 1942/43 is leadership.

    After the 1938 officer purges the Soviet army performed as badly as now invading Finland in 1939 and was not much better when Germany invaded them in 1941. But Stalin backed away from his political direction and let surviving experienced Soviet officers take over, even bringing in some from the far east like Zhukov. So by 1942/43 the Soviet army was competently led.

    Whereas now the trend is the opposite. Putin has sacked any generals who disagree with him and most senior positions are held by other ex KGB buddies. These people are experts at internal security, not military strategy. This shows in the ridiculous initial invasion plan, where they spread out far too much.

    The corruption now is also much worse, and that must be a factor too.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Rachel Clun writes that Jim Chalmers has warned Australia must prepare itself for a robust discussion about how to fund future government spending as he revealed next month’s budget will be constrained to “bread and butter” spending amid rising cost-of-living pressures and slowing economic growth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-needs-national-discussion-around-paying-for-government-spending-treasurer-20220920-p5bjjt.html
    Phil Coorey tells us why Chalmers tried not to look happy about a $50b budget improvement.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-chalmers-tried-not-to-look-happy-about-a-50b-budget-improvement-20220920-p5bjmr
    James Robertson says that the axe is hanging over Morrison’s legacy as the government gets serious before the budget.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/09/20/jim-chalmers-budget-deficit-2022/
    Scott Morrison’s secretive cabinet committee of one permanent member appears to have met hundreds of times in the last term of parliament, documents released under freedom of information have revealed. Paul Karp tells us that the cabinet office policy committee– of which Morrison was listed as the only permanent member – created 739 sets of minutes from meetings, the information released by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet showed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/21/scott-morrisons-secretive-cabinet-committee-of-one-had-hundreds-of-meetings-foi-documents-suggest
    Farrah Tomazin reports that, speaking in the US, Chris Bowen has declared “Australia is back” when it comes to climate change, telling world allies the nation could be a renewables powerhouse now that it’s no longer consumed by domestic debates over global warming.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/australia-is-back-chris-bowen-spruiks-climate-agenda-on-world-stage-20220920-p5bjlh.html
    Jacob Greber writes that the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has told the Albanese government to avoid giving trade-exposed carbon polluters a leave pass from proposed emissions reduction rules, saying exemptions would increase the burden on other firms.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/force-trade-exposed-carbon-emitters-to-do-more-acci-tells-bowen-20220920-p5bjjx
    David Crowe tells us that a federal bid to cut the price of electric vehicles has sparked a political clash about whether buyers of plug-in hybrid cars deserve any of the benefits, forcing a Senate vote that could scale back the scheme and save $1 billion over a decade.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-pocock-push-to-exclude-plug-in-hybrids-from-labor-s-ev-tax-breaks-20220920-p5bjjp.html
    The Albanese government will set up an inquiry into the increasing cost of child care, which will start in January and run for a year. Michelle Grattan points out that childcare costs have risen by 41% over the last eight years.
    https://theconversation.com/government-announces-inquiry-into-childcare-costs-while-chalmers-promises-conversation-about-budget-challenges-190990
    Slowly – but sooner than you may think – this country, so proud to be a nation of home owners, is turning into a nation of renters, writes Ross Gittins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/a-home-of-one-s-own-so-good-only-the-rich-need-apply-20220920-p5bjf8.html
    Some of Australia’s biggest superannuation funds have told Treasurer Jim Chalmers they are excited about possible investments in affordable housing, despite publicly expressing concerns about miserly returns and economies of scale from federal Labor’s plans, reports Tom McIlroy.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/super-funds-excited-by-housing-opportunities-chalmers-20220920-p5bjft
    According to James Massola, NDIS Minister Bill Shorten has announced a new oversight committee to “blitz” the backlog of thousands of legal appeals over disability services funding packages.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-unveils-plan-to-blitz-ndis-dispute-backlog-20220920-p5bjkc.html
    Rachel Clun looks at how negotiations are going with the Australia-EU trade deal now that climate change issues have been dealt with.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-s-next-for-australia-s-trade-deal-with-the-eu-20220919-p5bj5d.html
    “If we tried to plan a less fair school system, we couldn’t have done a better job”, says Chris Bonnor.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/if-we-tried-to-plan-a-less-fair-school-system-we-couldn-t-have-done-a-better-job-20220915-p5bih1.html
    Tracy-Ann Palmer describes the barriers facing science teachers in Australia. It’s not a pretty picture she paints!
    https://theconversation.com/id-just-like-to-get-on-with-my-job-the-barriers-facing-science-teachers-in-australia-190921
    The Strengthening Medicare Taskforce must set aside the tired, unhelpful trope that care is about choosing between a GP, or a pharmacist, or a nurse. Health care professionals are complementary to each other and provide better care working as a team, declare Ken Griffin and Mary Chiarella.
    https://johnmenadue.com/strengthening-medicare-taskforce-team-based-care-the-great-leap-forward/
    The first verdict on Anthony Albanese since the death of Queen Elizabeth shows the prime minister was right to exercise caution and care with every step in the protocol to mark the transition to King Charles. David Crowe writes that Albanese did not want to rush into a debate on the republic and nor did most Australians. He captured the national mood by saying now was not the time for that discussion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-approaches-australia-republic-debate-with-caution-20220920-p5bjjm.html
    Jack Waterford details how the republican Albanese became imprisoned by royal protocol and constitutional custom.
    https://johnmenadue.com/compassing-and-imagining-the-death-of-the-king/
    If Australia is going to farewell the monarchy for good, let’s not be humble in our republican ambitions, urges Peter Lewis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/sep/20/if-australia-is-going-to-farewell-the-monarchy-for-good-lets-not-be-humble-in-our-republican-ambitions
    Julia Naughton writes about what sort of king Charles will be. She says he’s already given us some clues.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/pain-passion-and-unity-the-first-week-of-king-charles-iii-s-reign-20220914-p5bi1p.html
    Historian Jenny Hocking writes about the incautious, entitled, ‘meddling’ King Charles III of Australia, and wonders if he can he stay out of politics.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-incautious-entitled-meddling-king-charles-iii-of-australia-can-he-stay-out-of-politics/
    Britain’s Monarchy is holding Australia back from reaching its full potential as a progressive nation, writes James Fitzgerald.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/monarchy-holding-australia-back-from-its-true-potential,16784
    Liam Mannix wonders if the pandemic is really over and how various groups are being affected.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/is-the-pandemic-really-over-20220920-p5bjf1.html
    When it was revealed that former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison had not only shown contempt for his own government in secretly appointing himself, via the Governor-General’s approval, to five portfolios, but the depths of deception also seemed to be boundless. His tenure had already been marked by a spectacular, habitual tendency to conceal matters. “What else would come out?”, wonders Binoy Kampmark.
    https://theaimn.com/i-do-not-think-i-know-scott-morrisons-submarine-deception.
    With more on the Defence Strategic Review, Mike Scrafton says that pop psychology and Game of Thrones is driving the fear of war.
    https://johnmenadue.com/defence-strategic-review-pop-psychology-and-game-of-thrones-thinking-must-be-avoided/
    Looking at the economics of war Paul Krugman explains what Ukraine needs from us now.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/economics-of-war-what-ukraine-needs-from-us-now-20220920-p5bjf6.html
    A Texas county sheriff is opening a criminal investigation into flights that carried dozens of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, from Texas last week, an act that Florida’s Republican governor took credit for and which the White House dubbed a political stunt. He’s sticking his neck out down there!
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/nyc-mayor-scolds-republican-governors-after-traumatised-migrant-mother-dies-in-shelter-20220920-p5bjem.html
    John Lord begins this contribution about the remarkable advance in right-wing authoritarian governments around the world with, “The stench of Donald Trump’s presidency still lingers around the United States of America, dispersing itself on the populous with a dulling effect. It is a rotten rancid odour that inhabits not only the United States but also the world.”
    https://theaimn.com/trump-is-out-of-office-but-not-out-of-mind-the-legacy-lingers/
    Donald Trump’s legal team has acknowledged the possibility that the former president could be indicted amid the investigation into his retention of government secrets at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Despite Trump’s claiming days earlier that he couldn’t imagine being charged, his lawyers made the stark admission that he could be in a court filing on Monday proposing how to conduct an outside review of documents that were seized by the FBI in August.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/20/trump-lawyers-charges-documents-fbi-mar-a-lago

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Simon Letch

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Peter Broelman

    Mark Knight

    David Rowe

    Spooner

    From the US













  12. Soc,
    Hasn’t the Australian Automotive Industry prepared for a campaign to sabotage the government’s new Emissions Standards so that they can keep importing vehicular ICE, which means we won’t get the best EVs sent here?

    I know that the government will eventually prevail but it hasn’t played out yet and so we probably won’t see the best until the issue is resolved I imagine.

  13. Cat

    Partly yes. That is why an EU style emission standard is the way to go. No way around it.

    Likewise Pocock is correct on plugin hybrids – leave them out of any subsidy. Saves money and a better outcome.

  14. I agree with the part of David Pope’s cartoon where he puts Gas Export Subsidies as part of the elephant in the room. Jim Chalmers could get rid of them in the October Budget and I don’t think anyone would mind. In fact, I think it would have majority support, especially if he doesn’t introduce a Windfall Profits Tax.

  15. This is not much of an improvement dutton up buy two points think he is to negative his stratigy of repeating the abot formular wont work again as the government is new no hung parliament and him blaming labor for his failures including on energy is under cut buy tayler being shadow treasurer

  16. Agreed, Soc. 🙂

    Although here’s an idea. How about if we offered to produce and fit the batteries into the cars once they arrive in Australia?
    That would save time, money and emissions getting them overseas, only to come back here to be sold. It also gets us one step up the supply chain ladder and creates jobs. Which, in turn, may help us in the eventual manufacture of EV military vehicles like our Bushmasters and Hawkeis.

  17. William, do you think you’ll bother live blogging the upcoming referenda in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories? Should be a quick count.

  18. BK says:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:49 am

    nath
    And I wonder where Jeff Kennett sits in all this.
    ____
    It’s clear that every club has to have a review to find out how far this shit has spread. I am actually in shock that Hawthorn would demand relationships end, demand terminations etc. Everyone involved in this needs to have their careers ended.

    They should not be involved in sport and especially with young people. Let them work in a warehouse or office, anywhere but near young people.

  19. Agreed Aaron. The LNP is in a catch 22 situation of their own making. The partyroom is dominated by Queenslanders and right-wingers from other states who finally have their man Spud as leader after a long wait. Not to mention Spud is News Corp’s preferred leader as well. I was thinking earlier that Spud would be disposed of soon enough similar to Alexander Downer was in 1995, but going by the antics of LNP politicians since the election I think Spud will get a run until the next election at least even if that means walking the party off a cliff.

  20. Grant_ExLibris says:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:56 am

    Agree Nath and BK.

    This is a horrific story. Clarkson must come clean or be sacked.
    _______
    Surely this is also criminal behaviour. To demand that a child be terminated or risk employment, future salary, opportunity etc etc is extortion, and the worst kind of extortion.

  21. Nath @ 0757

    I would tend to agree with you. There have been many well documented cases of employers being ‘pinged’ when asking a prospective female employee their intentions in regards to having children or being demoted or even sacked when they do become pregnant.

    But this is beyond the pale. It would be interesting to test this issue in court. To make matters even worse Indigenous players appeared to have been targeted.

    Simply speechless.

  22. Australia faces a looming capability gap as our ageing fleet of Collins-class submarines are retired and before a new fleet of still-hypothetical nuclear submarines is delivered.

    The deputy prime minister and minister for defence, Richard Marles, is speaking to ABC Radio. He says the government doesn’t yet have an answer on the total cost of a new fleet of nuclear submarines but “we do know it’s going to be more expensive.”

    However, he said the state of global affairs means “what we do need is a highly capable long-range submarine”.

    As for the safety side of nuclear subs, Marles says the government is “pleased” the international atomic agency (IAEA) is satisfied for now, that Australia can operate nuclear submarines without violating commitments but says he “want[s] to make clear this is early days.”

  23. Nath,
    That is horrible. And it is another type of Stolen Generation.

    The club should be sued out of existence.

    The AFL should be sued for millions and fined millions.

    Those involved should be banned from the sport for ever.

    I never encouraged my kids to get involved in Aussie Rules because I disliked the culture. It seems my instinctsvwere correct.

  24. On the Renault Kangoo:

    “ To go further, Kangoo Z.E. boasts a 33kWh battery hooked up to an energy efficient 44kW motor, for a real-world driving range of 200km.”

    _____

    Hearin lies the rub. Behind the marketing spin, those figures a wholly inadequate for serious tradie/courier work. Before one considers the cost to the road in Australia.

    The Kangoo EV offers little in difference to the proposed range of light commercial vehicles being proposed by ACE, which will range in price from between A$25K to A$35K.


  25. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:07 am
    Cronus/AE

    I think one important difference between the Russian army now and the Soviet army in 1942/43 is leadership.

    After the 1938 officer purges the Soviet army performed as badly as now invading Finland in 1939 and was not much better when Germany invaded them in 1941. But Stalin backed away from his political direction and let surviving experienced Soviet officers take over, even bringing in some from the far east like Zhukov. So by 1942/43 the Soviet army was competently led.

    Whereas now the trend is the opposite. Putin has sacked any generals who disagree with him and most senior positions are held by other ex KGB buddies. These people are experts at internal security, not military strategy. This shows in the ridiculous initial invasion plan, where they spread out far too much.

    The corruption now is also much worse, and that must be a factor too.

    Socrates: This shows in the ridiculous initial invasion plan, where they spread out far too much.

    Me: Maybe those in-charge thought the resistance will melt away as soon as they come face to face with Russian army and tanks.
    Remember, those in-charge saw Iraq army resistance completely collapse when they came face to face with US army in Iraq war 2.0.
    But During Iraq 2.0 nobody came to the resque of Iraq because of the US ” you are with us or against us” warning and the unpopularity of the dictator.

  26. “Socrates says:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:07 am
    Cronus/AE

    I think one important difference between the Russian army now and the Soviet army in 1942/43 is leadership.”

    Yes, but there is more. One thing is to defend your country from an invading army (1942/43), a very different thing is to successfully invade and control somebody else’s country (2022). Here there is a great difference at least in terms of motivation, and not just in the leadership, but in every single soldier…. That’s why Putin will fail.

  27. Paul Karp tells us that “the cabinet office policy committee– of which Morrison was listed as the only permanent member – created 739 sets of minutes from meetings”?

    Over less than 4 years of PM Morrison, the ‘committee’ plus “deputy PM, treasurer and finance minister {who} were standing co-options to all COPCs” must have met more than once every day they were at work.

    Seems legit.

  28. ”Did several billion people watch the Queen’s funeral?”

    They used the algorithm employed by the Liberal-Newscorp-National Coalition and their allies when developing scare campaigns against Labor policies they don’t like:
    1. Think of a number
    2. Double it
    3. Add enough trailing zeroes to make it scary enough.

    A credible estimate for viewership in Australia, one of the countries with the greatest interest, is about 5 million ~ 20% of the population. Apply that across the world gives about 1.5 billion. However there would be minimal interest in China and most non-Commonwealth countries.

    I’d say one billion absolute tops.

  29. “Jaeger says:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 8:30 am
    Did several billion people watch the Queen’s funeral?”

    Of course!… and the reason is simply because Queen Elizabeth II was by far the most important historical figure of the XX and, so far, the XXI centuries. Oh, and if you ask for evidence, you are just showing what a pathetically mean person you are….

    Monarchist Propaganda 101……

  30. Labour still leading the Conservatives by ten points in latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 32% (-)
    Lab 42% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 16% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 16 – 20 September 2022
    Sample: 2,084 GB adults
    (Changes from 9 – 12 September 2022)

  31. Labor should be making more of the defence capability gap.
    The press will try to hide it and if the alp are not careful, 3 years may pass and they’ll be back in office (Unless a miracle happens for the LNP), and then the ALP will own the fuckup totally.

    Marles should be pinning these fuckups on the LNP. If anything, it’s time to depart form the bipartisan approach on defence and hammer the f–k out of this. They need to start drawing a line between defence capability stuff ups and corruption. The money is too big for their not to be corruption.

    BTW. I’m really thrilled with Dutton, more of him please. Doing a great job.

  32. I think on the EV thing, Greens stunt. Hybrids will be with us for a while, at least until the EV charging infrastructure is widespread and fossil fuels use drops to the extent where its a lot more expensive and the distribution network becomes too expensive for the volume put through it.

    Yah, hybrids a transition thing. EV charging infrastructure is NOT going to appear over night in sufficient density to replace petrol / diesel. Where does hydrogen / ammonia fit in to this??

    On the Ukraine lets have a referendum thing?? Its obviously NOT directed at anyone other than the Russian population. To most of the world it is silliness, BUT it gives Putin the legal authority within Russia to widen conscription AND compel conscripts to fight in Ukraine. Makes a LOT of cheap cannon fodder available that regardless of effectiveness still need killing, and maybe he will try to use that as leverage to hold on to what territorial gains they have now in some kind of negotiated settlement / cease fire??

  33. Hawthorn Football Club was always hands on with herding their players through tertiary qualifications at Swinburne, where players only studied 3 subjects a semester instead of the mandated 4 subjects. I think their care extended to knowing exam questions. Hawthorn Football Club taught all players how to cook nutritious meals and helped organise their accommodation.

    Melbourne football club also parented their interstate recruits until they finished their studies even when they were dropped after a year

  34. Re Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the emergency referendums, this the NYT description in their newsletter.

    Officials installed by Moscow in four occupied Ukrainian regions announced plans to hold “referendums” on formally joining Russia, according to state news media. The votes will begin on Friday and last for five days. The moves are widely seen as a prelude to annexation and a potential escalation of the war. They are also a sign of Moscow’s growing desperation.

    “Encroaching on the territory of Russia is a crime, the commission of which allows you to use all the forces of self-defense,” Dmitri Medvedev, the former Russian president and an ally of Vladimir Putin, posted on Telegram.

  35. imacca at 9:08am

    “ Yah, hybrids a transition thing. EV charging infrastructure is NOT going to appear over night in sufficient density to replace petrol / diesel. Where does hydrogen / ammonia fit in to this??”

    We have a grey import Nissan Leaf as a city run-around as my business vehicle. The range is a little over 120km but it has suited my needs for all but two business days in the last two years. The energy cost averages out at less than 1c/km, and the fully distributed cost including depreciation, consumables and maintance is 11c/km. The most expensive component is parking.

    Edit: charging infrastructure is ICE thinking. Most EVs are charged slowly at home. I’ve only ever charged the Leaf at home. It requires just the tiniest incremental step of planning tonight for tomorrow

    The primary vehicle which my wife uses (less usage than the Leaf) is a hybrid Corolla. I hate driving it because it has no performance, but by petrol standards it’s efficient. The issue with hybrids is the complexity of the drive train which drives up maintenance. To Toyota’s credit though they have delivered relative efficiency at scale.

    Hydrogen/ammonia has no place in the domestic vehicle business. Efficiency is less than half that of EV and hydrogen whether green or via fossil processes is really expensive. But there might be a place for large vehicles, shipping, etc. – in 20-40 years’ time at scale.

    The best thing to do, frankly, is not pick winners but set emissions targets as per Europe. But keep a close eye on the software engineers at VW….

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