Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 39
1 2 3 39
  1. As for Trump’s legal maneuverings, for him the law is no more than a tool. He is a political con man. Anything he does and anything his lawyers do only makes sense from that perspective. It is why he is dangerous. He works outside the law. I think (don’t know) that’s also one reason it is taking this long to indict him. It takes time to wear down his political power.

  2. Eston Kohver, you asked a few days ago about posting images on PB. Here’s something I penned for your return.

    PB doesn’t allow you to upload an image for the rest of us to see. You have to use an image that is already uploaded to a public site, and link to it in your comment. Or first upload it yourself to a public site, and then link it. I use ‘postimages’ to upload personal images and make them public, but there are others. https://postimages.org/faq

    One caveat: If the link does not end in a recognized image file extension (like .png or .jpg) you need to add one, by typing the pound symbol (aka hash) and a file name ending in jpg, for instance ThisIsMyImageLink#image.jpg.


  3. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:07 am
    Cronus/AE

    I think one important difference between the Russian army now and the Soviet army in 1942/43 is leadership.

    After the 1938 officer purges the Soviet army performed as badly as now invading Finland in 1939 and was not much better when Germany invaded them in 1941. But Stalin backed away from his political direction and let surviving experienced Soviet officers take over, even bringing in some from the far east like Zhukov. So by 1942/43 the Soviet army was competently led.

    Whereas now the trend is the opposite. Putin has sacked any generals who disagree with him and most senior positions are held by other ex KGB buddies. These people are experts at internal security, not military strategy. This shows in the ridiculous initial invasion plan, where they spread out far too much.

    The corruption now is also much worse, and that must be a factor too.

    Socrates
    Dick Cheney before Iraq war 2 invasion: Well, I don’t think it’s likely to unfold that way, Tim, because I really do believe that we will be greeted as liberators.

    Me: The rest is grim and ugly history for Iraq and Middle East.


  4. nathsays:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:42 am
    the hawthorn allegations are the worst thing I have seen in the AFL. If they are true Alistair Clarkson should be driven from the AFL asap.

    nath
    When you thought you know someone……….

    Eddie Maguire, Alistair Clarkson, Chris Fagan.
    These are some of the big names of AFL.
    If Victorian AFL teams have any shame they should not win any Premierships until they stop using dubious means starting with Geelong which should have a review of its practices to find if there are any dubious practices followed by them.

  5. Puffytmdsays:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 8:33 am
    Nath,
    That is horrible. And it is another type of Stolen Generation.

    The club should be sued out of existence.

    The AFL should be sued for millions and fined millions.

    Those involved should be banned from the sport for ever.

    I never encouraged my kids to get involved in Aussie Rules because I disliked the culture. It seems my instinctsvwere correct.
    ___________________________________
    Puffy,

    Football like most activities in life has a big mix of some of the worst and some of the best people to be found. AFL is played across the political and social divide unlike the divide that Rugby has/had.

    There are times where those involved with the game and the people running it have done more to advance the causes of cultural diversity, LGBTQIA+, mental health, etc.

    Then you get stuff like todays release that you can quite rightly justify your decision to keep away from that environment…

  6. Ven on Tue at 11.24 pm

    “Dr. D
    UN Security council reform unlikely to happen as long as China is opposed to it.
    IMO, There should be no permanent UN Security council members. Expand the Security council member number from current to at least 10% of U membership and have a vote for them every 2 years.”

    More complicated than that re China. Your solution is constitutionally impossible. The P5 veto is written into the UN Charter, so it cannot really be changed. All that can be done, short of creating a new organisation, is to change the political context in which the veto is used, so it becomes more illegitimate. This was what Gareth Evans suggested in 1994.

    China is not formally opposed to SC reform, it just supports plan B rather than plan A. Plan B is giving recurrent terms on the SC to large countries as a sort of third tier membership, above the occasional members like Australia, Canada and NZ etc. Plan A is adding 6 new SC permanent members without a veto (Japan, Germany, India, Brazil and two African states, though the Africans dogmatically insist on a veto even though they can’t agree which African states should be promoted). Chinese rhetoric on SC is improving the representation of developing countries (Africa etc).

    In one sense India and the US are the key players. If they agree on a revised version of plan A, and can get African support, plus acquiescence from Latin America re Brazil and non-Chinese Asia re India and Japan, then both Russia and China would become isolated if they oppose reform. The legal requirement is two-thirds support in the General Assembly plus all P5 support. It is unlikely that China or Russia would veto i.e. obstruct a deal that had widespread support in the Assembly.

    There is much negotiation required, and the Biden administration is probably not up to the task, but it’s 67 years since the one previous expansion of the SC and the issue has been on the Assembly agenda for 30 years. If Clinton acted in the early 1990s, he might have been able to push through a limited reform favouring Japan and Germany, but since the mid 1990s it’s been clear that any successful reform must improve the representation of significant developing countries.

    Current non-permanent members are:

    Albania (until 2023)
    Brazil (2023)
    Gabon (2023)
    Ghana (2023)
    India (2022)
    Ireland (2022)
    Kenya (2022)
    Mexico (2022)
    Norway (2022)
    United Arab Emirates (2023)

    Of those states only Brazil, India, Norway and Mexico have any significance, while Kenya is important in Africa and peace-keeping operations.

    So, neither Japan nor Germany (the second and third largest funders of the UN after the US) are on the SC. A version of plan A, with the SC permanent membership expanded by a second tier of 6 (see above), plus three more non-permanent i.e. rotating members, may be achievable with strong US leadership. It was one of many international tasks (like nuclear disarmament etc) that Obama did not attend to.

    India has an opportunity but they will probably be unable to make any progress, partly because of their obsession with nuclear weapons. A standard argument against giving permanent membership to India is that they (along with Pakistan and Israel + North Korea after it withdrew) are not members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), an important UN arms control initiative.

    So, when you analyse the issue carefully, there is a potential opportunity for change created by Putin’s war, but the ultimate obstacle is not China or Russia. Rather, it is India. Almost all the developing world supports the NPT, but India does not. India’s price for not adhering to the NPT is exclusion from the SC permanent membership.


  7. Steve777says:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 8:51 am
    ”Did several billion people watch the Queen’s funeral?”

    They used the algorithm employed by the Liberal-Newscorp-National Coalition and their allies when developing scare campaigns against Labor policies they don’t like:
    1. Think of a number
    2. Double it
    3. Add enough trailing zeroes to make it scary enough.

    A credible estimate for viewership in Australia, one of the countries with the greatest interest, is about 5 million ~ 20% of the population. Apply that across the world gives about 1.5 billion. However there would be minimal interest in China and most non-Commonwealth countries.

    I’d say one billion absolute tops.

    You are being generous.

  8. I’ve read, with interest, this morning’s discussion on the morale of the Russian Army in Ukraine. If/when the four referendums succeed, and Russia annexes the regions it is currently defending, how will that affect the morale?

  9. Steve777 at 8:51 am

    ”Did several billion people watch the Queen’s funeral?”

    They used the algorithm employed by the Liberal-Newscorp-National Coalition and their allies when developing scare campaigns against Labor policies they don’t like:
    1. Think of a number
    2. Double it
    3. Add enough trailing zeroes to make it scary enough.

    Algorithm ? Heavens no. HoJo bequeathed his faithful Hockeynomics calculator to them to use.
    Shttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS8s65SaMAA3nfT.jpg
    This guy worked out the equation HoJo and the ‘Funeral Watch’ people used.
    http://independentaustralia.net/wordpress-opt/wp-content/2012/09/Hockeynomics.png#image.jpg

  10. @socrates:

    “ Likewise Pocock is correct on plugin hybrids – leave them out of any subsidy. Saves money and a better outcome.”

    ________

    First of all. I don’t believe in EV subsidies. It is incumbent on manufacturers to produce price competitive EVs. This will not be achieved by subsidising the wealthy for their $70K+ Tesla’s and what nots. Or even less than $50K chap and cheerful EVs (which are still unicorns). Subsidies wont get the masses into price parity EV Corolla’s and Mazda 3s either. Money would be better spent on the necessary upgrades to the recharging network to transform a niche market into the mainstream – once price parity is achieved.

    Of course, the bigger a vehicle gets, the more energy it needs to do stuff. While there ARE commercial EVs out there, the price mark up between them and the EV equivalent is eye watering. The Ford F-150 ‘Lightening’ were it imported into Australia for example would retail north of $150K – which is more than double a top of the range, bells and whistles Hilux. It literally has a 1 tone battery, but even with ‘fast charging’ when under loading (say a 2 tonne caravan on a highway) it will only ‘go’ for 2 hours before needing a real world ‘fast charge’ of 3 hours.

    Which brings me to PHEVs and their potential role in Australia over the next 10-15 years. I’m going to use the new Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV as a benchmark to develop this point.

    The first thing to observe is that in Australia BIG ICE Utes and Four Wheel Drives now dominate the new car market. Followed closely by medium sized SUVs (which the outlander is an example), then followed by small SUVs. The people have spoken, they want their BIG stuff. More so than at any stage in my lived experience.

    BIG stuff – the sort of things that tradies use for all their work kit during the week and then to tow a boat or caravan on the weekend are very very energy intensive. In a way that a Tesla 3 or Nissan Leaf just isn’t. Hence the refrigerator sized battery in the F150 Lightening. That is always going to drive a massive price differential between ICE and EV variants of the same or at least comparable models. There will also be limitations on stored energy if we stick with Li-ion technology as well.

    However, PHEV technology does address many of these limitations. With a 23 kw/h battery a new 2 tonne Mitsubishi Outlander can get 80km of range, if driven conservatively (say in typical Sydney traffic conditions) at less than 70kmh. It has all the energy recovery technology of say the Prius and the ability to use its ICE as a generator to ‘top up’ on charge if needs be AND the ability to engage the ICE directly to the transmission for direct power – either by itself – or in combination with the dual electric motors: in fact it has awesome power and torque if you really give it the beans. The equivalent to any ICE Ute on the Australian market I reckon. Now the price differential between the PHEV and the pure ICE versions of the same model Outlander is about $16K making it un likely that you’d make your money back in under 4 years of urban driving. However, it has two way charging – so you can use it instead of a wall battery at home and it also gives you a degree of energy security – in the event of blackouts OR – if you want to travel with it – you need mains power in a remote location. So perfect for family camping or for that matter power on a remote work sight if you are a tradie. Now that $16K mark up for PHEV pales in comparison to the 70-100% mark up for the emerging pure EV commercial vehicles trickling onto the market.

    Now, obviously the Outlander PHEV is a medium-large SUV. However, one can easily imagine a long wheel base variant, where the ‘wagon’ body is replaced by a crew cab and tray. While still not as ‘big’ as the current Utes (like late model Hiluxes and Ford Rangers) it would be comparable in size to a typical crew cab on the market only a few years ago. A PHEV variant of a crew cab Ute MAY well be an attractive option for ‘every day’ Australians who are optherwise looking at a big ICE Ute to carry their stuff during the working week and then take the family and caravan/boat places on the weekend. Indeed, rather than killing the weekend. It would actually enhance it because of all that electricity at your disposal at a camsighht or boat ramp. During the week, a tradie with a PHEV is energy independent. Which can only enhance their ability to do work stuff – with power tools for example – on site. Finally, while not as environmentally friendly and low carbon as a pure ICE, such a PHEV would be a massive leap forward. Moreover, it would provide a good bridge to the future for these ‘everyday’ Australians who want a big vehicle that ‘does it all’. If we are to subsidise EVs (and I don’t think we should) the PHEVs should remain in the mix.

  11. Q: ver less than 4 years of PM Morrison, the ‘committee’ plus “deputy PM, treasurer and finance minister {who} were standing co-options to all COPCs” must have met more than once every day they were at work.

    Seems legit.

    It was pointed out that Morrison could have called ANY meeting he had a sub-committee for secrecy- including a trip to the hairdresser or a chat to the gardener. One a day sounds eminently possible.

  12. Late Riser at 10.03 am

    No affect whatsoever on Russian troop morale if the fake referenda are “held”. If the Russians were funny they would hold the vote online. Everybody knows the results. That is all in the ephemeral arena of propaganda, very distant from actual fighting. In simple terms, three levels: 1) the real bloody war with all its barbarism; 2) diplomatic maneuvering and domestic politics regarding Putin’s war; 3) the fluff of propaganda. Levels one and two are significant, three isn’t. Evidence: Georgia in 2008 won level 3.

  13. Sceptic at 10:53 am
    The problem is there is still a very large audience among pollies around the globe for such bullshit. Including here.

    Is what she has said any different to what we have been fed here for years ? To what has become seemingly orthodox thinking , even among Labor voices ?
    “.…. corporation tax needs to be competitive with other countries so that we can attract that investment.”…
    …….“Lower taxes lead to economic growth, there is no doubt in my mind about that.


  14. Dr Doolittlesays:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 10:00 am
    Ven on Tue at 11.24 pm

    “Dr. D
    UN Security council reform unlikely to happen as long as China is opposed to it.
    IMO, There should be no permanent UN Security council members. Expand the Security council member number from current to at least 10% of U membership and have a vote for them every 2 years.”

    More complicated than that re China. Your solution is constitutionally impossible. The P5 veto is written into the UN Charter, so it cannot really be changed. All that can be done, short of creating a new organisation, is to change the political context in which the veto is used, so it becomes more illegitimate. This was what Gareth Evans suggested in 1994.

    I suggested a simple and straightforward idea to reform UNSC. With your analysis you came to the conclusion that is not possible. Then you explained a complicated way to reform UNSC. Human nature being what it is, people won’t touch that idea if it is complicated because their lives are as it is complicated.
    Then you mentioned that the ultimate obstacle to India becoming permanent UNSC member is India because it has Nuclear weapons.
    In the process it seems to have slipped your mind that all permanent UNSC members have Nuclear capability and own nuclear weapons.
    Who gave them the right to tell the world what to do and who should own Nuclear weapons? Hypocrites.
    Let them first relinquish Nuclear weapons and then lecture others about not having Nuclear weapons.
    Also, India will not give up its Nuclear capability and Nuclear weapons as long as China and Pakistan, who are its hostile neighbours, have them.
    I read somewhere that acquiring Nuclear weapons is like woman losing virginity. Once it is gone it is gone.

  15. Simon Katich @ #68 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 11:04 am

    Are we getting concerned about Iran?

    Weighing it up:

    The country now has some of the best and most pervasive digital security in the region and a firm hold over communities it has terrified into silence.

    But it also finds itself up against a formidable expatriate network who want different things for the country and its people, and a strong homegrown activist push that knows how to organise.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/mahsa-aminis-brutal-death-may-be-moment-of-reckoning-iran

  16. https://grattan.edu.au/event/stopping-political-ads-on-the-public-dime-a-grattan-speed-briefing/

    “Governments like to use taxpayer money to fill our screens with advertising that shows off their latest policies and achievements, from the next big transport project to what they are doing to reduce the cost of living. What can be done to prevent such blatant misuse of taxpayer-funded advertising?

    Join Grattan Institute CEO Danielle Wood and Senior Associate Anika Stobart for a speed-briefing webinar event on their upcoming report New politics: Depoliticising taxpayer-funded advertising.

    Danielle and Anika will show that federal and state governments, on both sides of politics, use taxpayer-funded advertising for political gain – promoting their party, spruiking their performance, and timing ads to run in the lead up to elections.

    Our experts will identify ways to ensure taxpayer-funded advertising is solely for the benefit of the public, not politicians. And they will answer your questions. All you need to know, in just 15 minutes.”

  17. Simon Katich at 11:04 am

    Are we getting concerned about Iran?

    The US decides that, so we’ll have to wait until they tell us to be or not as the case may be.

  18. Classic NSW, importing all of America’s dumb culture wars and idiotic ideas.

    No body, no parole laws mean that only people that were actually guilty of the crime they were convicted for are eligible for parole. People that are innocent are denied a chance at parole.

    Genius.

  19. https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/20/2124085/-Ukraine-update-As-Russia-prepares-to-force-referendums-in-occupied-areas-Putin-is-a-no-show

    From the article:
    “In the so-called people’s republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as in areas like Mariupol and Kherson, Russia is going to hold a vote. Not a vote on the kind of pseudo-independence that was the formal position of the areas it has occupied since 2014, but a vote that would make these areas “part of Russia.” Russia won’t be doing this in Crimea, because it already did so in the midst of its 2014 invasion, where they found an astounding 97% of the population super enthusiastic about joining Russia. That referendum took place less than three weeks after Russian tanks rolled across the border.”
    ………….
    ………..
    “On Tuesday morning, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin intended to speak later in the day, and that he might institute some form of mobilization. Putin’s speech was described by Russian sources as “the biggest speech since the beginning of the special operations.”

    The threat of mobilization was enough to drive prices of airline tickets from Moscow to anywhere through the roof, and create a spike in Google searches on “how to escape Russia.” Rumors circulating in social media suggested that, as of Tuesday evening in Moscow, men of military age would not be allowed to leave the country.

    Mostly what the world did on Tuesday was … wait. Because Putin was over an hour late in beginning his speech, which was especially odd because the speech was supposedly pre-recorded. Perhaps Putin has defenestrated everyone in the AV Club.

    As of this writing (3:20 PM ET), it is now after 10 PM in Moscow. Putin has missed his announced time for the speech by over two hours. There have been unconfirmed reports that Putin’s speech has been delayed until Wednesday. Or maybe it was Putin who stood too close to a window. Hard to tell.

    That this speech, which was hyped repeatedly on Monday and early Tuesday as “the most important speech since the start of the special military operation,” has now been delayed surely means something. We just have no idea what that something might be. Is Putin getting pushback from inside military circles? Are his own oligarchs in revolt? Is whatever health problem that has caused his face to look like an overinflated balloon acting up?

    An actual press attaché for the Kremlin is now posting: “The third world war has been moved to tomorrow, you can go to bed. See you tomorrow in the same place.” We assume that’s Russia’s idea of a joke. Maybe.”

    Me: So As per Kremlin attache’ the WW3 is moved to Wednesday.

  20. Forget meaningful reform of the UN Security Council. It is not fit for purpose. I mean, Russia isnt even meant to have a seat there. No text, no law, no vote, no agreement notes that Russia should be sitting in the USSR SC seat. How has this come to pass? Where you have rules that never extend to the 5 permanent members and yet one of them isnt actually a member at all. This is so far past the Best Before date. The US used and abused it for decades. Now it is the turn of China and Russia. It is a farce.

    And it is replicated in so many places. The US constitution and electoral system is one example. Politics is the art of the possible – and the box of possibilities has shrunk so small that you wonder what the point of politics is anymore. Politics has tied itself into a Gordion Knot.

    I would suggest any founding document have a clearly dated sunset clause and a set of measures outlined for its full rewriting. Because these old constitutions are starting to become nooses.

    Coffee and biscuits anyone?

  21. Huge strategic own goal from Russia.

    The nuclear deterrent strategy can be effective, but it can be defeated by Salami tactics. Google the Yes Minister skit if that phrase is unclear.

    Currently, Russia have a stated position that Ukraine invading Russian Territory would lead to nuclear reprisal. And Ukraine knows that Russia would quite probably do it, if Ukraine simply said “lets invade Russia to gain some territory as compensation for our suffering.”.

    But if Russia holds a sham referendum, and claims more of Ukraine as Russian Territory, and then says “stop invading Russian (actually Ukrainian) Territory or we’ll nuke you”, everyone knows it’s a bluff.

    Ukraine would of course call them on their bluff, continuing to liberate back to their 2020 borders. That’s the first salami slice.

    But why stop there. You’re already invading territory Russia illegitimately claims, and they didn’t nuke you. So, you might as well liberate back to 2013 borders and reclaim Crimea. Another salami slice. Russia will threaten nukes when Ukraine gets close. But if they didn’t nuke for the first lot of fake Russian territory, they aren’t going to nuke for the next lot.

    That’s the second salami slice.

    What will Ukraine target for their third salami slice? Some of the Ukrainians that have been kidnapped and taken to Russia bomb a military base on the Russia side of the border to prevent later Russian invasion. Do you push the button, Mr Putin? In response to domestic ‘terrorism’?

    And if US and German weapons find their way to the Georgian government? The button?

    Giving Ukraine a free salami slice could cost them a whole lot.


  22. Simon Katichsays:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 11:39 am
    Forget meaningful reform of the UN Security Council. It is not fit for purpose. I mean, Russia isnt even meant to have a seat there. No text, no law, no vote, no agreement notes that Russia should be sitting in the USSR SC seat. How has this come to pass? Where you have rules that never extend to the 5 permanent members and yet one of them isnt actually a member at all. This is so far past the Best Before date. The US used and abused it for decades. Now it is the turn of China and Russia. It is a farce.

    And it is replicated in so many places. The US constitution and electoral system is one example. Politics is the art of the possible – and the box of possibilities has shrunk so small that you wonder what the point of politics is anymore. Politics has tied itself into a Gordion Knot.

    I would suggest any founding document have a clearly dated sunset clause and a set of measures outlined for its full rewriting. Because these old constitutions are starting to become nooses.

    Coffee and biscuits anyone?

    SK
    As per Western countries China and Russia have either gone rogue or are always rogue countries.
    But it is a fact Western countries inflation and prosperity was underwritten by Russian oil and gas and Chinese cheap goods. Why? Because all Western countries shifted a lot of their manufacturing to China and bought Russian oil and gas because it was cheaper than what other OPEC countries provided.
    Having said above
    “Politics has tied itself into a Gordion Knot” in democratic countries especially in Western countries like US, UK and Australia because one side of politics in these countries has gone completely batshit crazy and even in some cases evil.
    And the batshit crazy people support Putin and Xi whether you like it and accept it or not.

  23. BK @ #18 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 7:22 am

    Britain’s Monarchy is holding Australia back from reaching its full potential as a progressive nation, writes James Fitzgerald.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/monarchy-holding-australia-back-from-its-true-potential,16784

    Hmmm. A case of putting “the cart before the horse”, I think. Or perhaps I should say putting “the furphy before the polo pony”.

    The reality is that Australia is a monarchy because it is not a very progressive nation, not the other way around.


  24. ItzaDreamsays:
    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 11:39 am
    Ven @ #75 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 11:36 am

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/20/2124009/-Lindsey-Graham-Abortion-is-not-a-states-rights-issue

    And certainly not a pregnant woman’s issue. It an old white bigoted male issue. As someone said, if men got pregnant, you’d be able to get abortions at Bunnings.

    True. 🙂
    And another thing about Lindsay Graham is that he has never married . He was JAG lawyer before he became a politician of South Carolina, which is one of the most conservative states of USA.

  25. I shall hold fire on the Hawthorn FC news for the moment until the independent investigation reports back.

    The headlines are truly horrific though.

  26. AE

    First I agree with you on subsidies, especially on expensive EVs like Tesla 3. I’d be happy if there were no EV subsidies but we had better policy. Policy makes a huge difference. Consider the cost in Aussie $ of a Nissan Leaf in three different markets:

    Nissan Leaf (2021 model, 45 kWhr battery)
    Australia – cost = $52,000, less $2000 subsidy
    England – cost = $44,000, less $4000 subsidy
    Norway – cost = $34,000, less $3000 subsidy

    Note the huge difference in retail price, before subsidy. We are essentially talking about the same car, since differing fuel emission standards are irrelevant. EU policy for overall fleet emissions for each manufacturer motivates them to sell EVs at a more attractive price. There are cheap EVs (<$50K) made elsewhere, but they are conspicuously not sold here. EVs that are sold here are priced high, due to lack of competition.

    That being said, when EU countries do have subsidies, they tax high emission vehicles to pay for them.

    On PHEVs, I appreciate that some individual vehicles like the Outlander can work well. However the problem is that, as a class, they are heavier and less efficient than a full EV. Some have worse average fuel use and emissions than an efficient light ICE car. So as a class, there is not a case to subsidise them. Also some (e.g. Lexus, Mercs) are quite expensive and should be treated as luxury cars.

    We won't really get a realistic sample of the better quality cars made into Australia till we change the emissions policy. We should adopt the EU one, because that is what the world's manufacturers focus on complying with.

    One more thing – only a small proportion of large 4WD utes – (maybe 1/3) – are bought by tradies. I don’t think we actually know what people’s real preference for cars is in Australia, till we get a less distorted market. If our emission regs, taxes and rego charges reflected the real cost large heavy vehicles cause, fewer people would buy them.

  27. I would prefer Australia become an independent republic, but I can understand the logic of those wanting to keep a connection/alliance with the UK by retaining the monarch as HoS.
    I think voters still lack confidence to cut the apron strings given the current calibre of leadership on offer in Australia and the global threats.

  28. Dr Doolittle @ 10:46 am

    Thanks for that. Just to make sure I understand your point, the “referendums” are immaterial to the bloody war on the ground because they are too distant. The esoteric concepts can’t penetrate the daily barbarism. The moral advantage will remain with the Ukrainian forces.

  29. I posted a few months ago on racism at Hawthorn. It seemed to me that there was something significantly wrong. In particular I fingered Kennett’s handling as suss. That said, those named deserve a right of reply.
    But, after Goodes, McGuire, etc etc etc, I’m done. 65 years of being a Hawks fan and AFL fan are over.

  30. @socrates:

    “ On PHEVs, I appreciate that some individual vehicles like the Outlander can work well. However the problem is that, as a class, they are heavier and less efficient than a full EV. Some have worse average fuel use and emissions than an efficient light ICE car. So as a class, there is not a case to subsidise them. Also some (e.g. Lexus, Mercs) are quite expensive and should be treated as luxury cars.”

    _______

    My point relates to what folk are actually buying in Australia. It isn’t “efficient light” ICEs anymore. At least not in big numbers anymore. The numbers are with the Ford Rangers and Everests, the Hiluxes, Nissan Navara, Mitsubishi Tritons, Landcruisers etc.

    Fears about ‘the lost weekend’ if our ‘warrior/tradie’ class are ‘forced’ into EVs are true IF said warrior/tradie want to use their trusty steeds for weekend recreational activities that involve carrying – or towing – lots of heavy stuff long distances and/or to remote locations. The Aussie dream apparently in this wide brown land of ours. That’s where PHEV technology can really ‘meet the market’ in Australia, IMO.

  31. There’s enough evidence for someone to think AFL clubs are dangerous cult-like insular organisations.

    You look at the WCE and their drug issues in the 90s and 2000s, Geelong and Mark Thompson, Essendon and the PED scandal, Collingwood and racism, Adelaide and the camp, this Hawthorn thing…. I’m sure all clubs have dirt under the rug.

    I follow Carlton nowhere near as emotionally as I used to.

  32. Andrew_Earlwood @ #90 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 12:43 pm

    Fears about ‘the lost weekend’ if our ‘warrior/tradie’ class are ‘forced’ into EVs are true IF said warrior/tradie want to use their trusty steeds for weekend recreational activities that involve carrying – or towing – lots of heavy stuff long distances and/or to remote locations.

    The “to remote locations” is the main caveat there. EV’s will tow. They’ll tow “lots of heavy stuff” (and better than an ICE vehicle will, too, because crazy torque and additional braking capacity via regen). And they’ll tow it long distances. All that’s needed is high-speed charging infrastructure along the way. Which anywhere non-remote will (or at least, should) have.

    The Aussie dream apparently in this wide brown land of ours.

    That may well be the perception, but it’s not reality. I can routinely count more Teslas on the road than private vehicles towing anything. And it’s not like Teslas are common (yet).

    EV policy should be built around reality. Can’t base it around what people imagine they’ll get up to but never actually do.

  33. PHEVs are destined to the same graveyard as ICE vehicles.

    Legacy manufacturers are making PHEVs because they do not have the capacity to make EV’s in significant numbers (they use existing ICE vehicles and simply ad very small and less efficient batteries)

    Battery development is undergoing massive R and D that will only increase the performance gap even further.

    In the meantime they sell old technology because that is all they have.

  34. Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    16h

    Rosie Cooper MP (Lab, West Lancashire) is to resign her seat
    __________________________________________________________

    2019 result:

    Lab 52.1
    Con 36.3
    LDem 4.9
    Brexit 4.3
    Green 2.4

    The seat is to the north of Liverpool, the Skelmersdale/Ormskirk area .. a Labour seat since 1992

    The sitting MP is taking up a position with an NHS trust in the Mersey area .. MPs bailing out for another job is not always appreciated

  35. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    11h

    Labour leads by 8%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (18 Sept.):

    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 7 September

  36. Imagine if a Liberal government had announced the Queen Elizabeth II hospital in Melbourne and a national day of mourning impacting millions of appointments, surgeries, etc.

  37. millions of appointments, surgeries, etc.

    How sickly must Australians be that a nation of 25 million has millions of medical appointments/surgeries/etc. scheduled on a single day?

Comments Page 2 of 39
1 2 3 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *