The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
ar
“EV policy should be built around reality. Can’t base it around what people imagine they’ll get up to but never actually do.”
True. In that regard, it is worth appreciating the overall reality:
– Australia has 20 million cars and light vans/utes on the road, almost 1 for every adult.
– the average distance driven is around 13,000 km per year, 250 km/week, less than 50km per day.
– in outer suburbs the average can be up to 20,000 km per year; 25,000 in some country areas. But very few light vehicles (car, van or ute) are driven more than 100 km a day, unless a work vehicle.
– most households are two car households
– IMO the realistic transition strategy for most families, is NOT to a PHEV or high cost long range EV.
– the realistic strategy is for most families to go from 2 ICE cars, to 1 ICE car + 1 short to medium range EV. This will greatly reduce their travel costs, saving the ICE car for long trips.
– as EVs get more common, and performance continues to improve, many families will become more comfortable over time with 1 or 2 EVs and no ICE car.
– this is why a policy that makes cheaper EVs more available to average income families is important.
– charging infrastructure for longer drives will increase as EV numbers increase
– average driving distance per car in Norway is almost identical to Australia, so they are a good policy example to follow. They have a long coastline with population spread along it.
Just listened to the first part of the vomit-inducing corporate wankery response from O’Lachlan.
1. He has failed on racism in the AFL. This is just the latest chapter. He should quit now.
2. Some of the allegations involve criminal behaviour. The Report should immediately be referred to the police.
3. The Report should be referred immediately to the Human Rights Commission.
4. Allowing the AFL to ‘manage’ the response is just the usual fox/henhouse bullshit.
5. The AFL must now commission independent racism investigations for all clubs which have yet to do so.
Redfield Wilton’s tracking poll last week – not published due to the Queen’s death – had Labour ahead by 16%, 46% to 30% over the Tories .. compared to the 8% lead this week
nath @ #96 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 12:56 pm
Did you read about all the catastrophes that happened in Canada on their mourning public holiday 2 days ago? Chaos. Utter chaos. They will take years picking up the pieces. Thankfully a few provinces didnt join in the federal holiday and, well, the difference in outcomes is clear.
Toronto – no public holiday.
Vancouver however….
With regard to the public holiday or day of mourning, I thought I read somewhere that most of the arrangements for the royal funeral and associated events were planned many years ago and that Albanese just happened to be the PM that had to implement the plan.
Can anyone confirm that?
Socrates @ #101 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 1:44 pm
This is actually what we did. Or close enough. Only difference is we got a long-range EV. By the standards of the time, anyways. Eventually it will likely be considered a medium range EV as battery technology improves.
And the longer range has been entirely worthwhile, as the EV has been our weekend and roadtrip vehicle since it costs basically nothing to charge.
And that’s exactly the plan. Drive an EV for a few weeks and every ICE car feels broken. Including the one you already own.
They win the argument by being just plain better in ways that ICE never can/will catch up with, even if you don’t care about the sustainability/climate angle at all.
FWIW
EV demand is not a problem. Subsidies designed to increase demand therefore are increasing market distortion.
Subsidies to improve supply (grid, charging stations, uniform standards and local manufacturing,) should have priority.
poroti @ #100 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 1:43 pm
When nath never has a day off work, or a day on work, or . . .
Every Australian loves a day off work.
Employers having a whinge about an extra once in decades Public Holiday. I’ll see if I can find a violin small enough.
25 million appointments to reschedule? Wasn’t that 25 billion? Either way, I call bullshit.
Of course in Sydney the extra holiday will be rained out.
A day at the beach? Long live the king!
I have always seen little reason to subsidise the top end of the EV market.
For mine any Government subsidies should be aimed strictly at the lower end of the market.
A couple of grand off a Tesla is not going to make it affordable for most people, whilst at the lower end it may be the difference between someone buying another ICE vehicle or changing to an electric one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBCV8mzPa6Q
New EV battery technology set to become the norm in the future. 1000km range. 10 minutes to charge. 16 year warranty.
ICE are on their way out.
Why not just have implemented a national minute of silence for 11am tomorrow? Just like we’ve done with Remembrance Day for a very long time.
I can guarantee that there are strategy meetings in overdrive going on right now within the accredited AFL media/pr snouter units to protect their industry as best they can.
Your Ch7 and foxfooty and Heraldsun snouters will be being coached to within an inch of their lives.
Rex
The consistent line will be “The whole country has a problem”.
If the government withdrew all assistance to the fossil fuel industry and invested more in renewable energy and EV infrastructure…. ah forget it.
BK
They’ll feign outrage and concern but the agenda will be based on protecting their interests.
What I don’t get about E vehicles.
Why don’t they all have solar panels?
Or is that a dumb question?
Boerwar
“EV demand is not a problem. Subsidies designed to increase demand therefore are increasing market distortion.
Subsidies to improve supply (grid, charging stations, uniform standards and local manufacturing,) should have priority.”
That is exactly why I support the EU fleet emissions policy. It incentivises the car importer to supply more low emission vehicles, preferably EVs.
This is why you see the huge variation in EV prices I quoted earlier. At present we are NOT getting a realistic share of the EV supply. The world average sold last year was 8% EVs. Australia is selling 2% EVs, with long waiting times i.e. supply constrained.
Kezza
Actually EVs with solar panels is not a dumb question. It is not yet fully practical, but starting. Its a question of costs vs solar energy recovered.
See
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjoHimaqqfY
Just caught up with the Hawthorn allegations. Utterly appalling.
Boerwar at 1:59 pm
We Cave Dwellers get two bites of the ‘Long Live the King’ cherry this week. Tomorrow and Monday. Hurrah for Liz and Charles.
.
A listing of the published Public holiday dates in Western Australia 2022 to 2024.
National Day of Mourning Thursday 22 September
King’s Birthday # Monday 26 September
kezza2 @ #118 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 2:11 pm
Energy density.
The Earth gets, on average, 1kW of energy per square meter from the sun. A good solar panel can collect about 25% of that as usable energy. So for every square meter of (upwards-facing) surface on the car you can get about 250W.
Cars average about 6 square meters in total surface area. Assume all of it points skywards at all times and that none of it needs to be transparent for the purposes of actually driving the vehicle. Cover absolutely everything with solar panels and you’ll get 1500W of energy. That’ll get you perhaps 9km of charge every hour.
Factor in that you can’t actually cover the car’s entire surface area in solar cells and that a bunch of it doesn’t actually point towards the sun, and you’d probably be lucky to get 3km of charge per hour under ideal conditions. It’s just not enough to be worth the added complexity and costs (and maybe even the increased weight, which lowers overall driving efficiency).
It’s just not workable. And it’s also why if/when you see an EV fast charger with solar panels it’s kind of a joke. Unless the array is absolutely massive there’s no way it actually powers the fast charger (though more solar is always better than less).
Kezza2
Solar panels generate about 300 watts per square meter – there is little room for improved efficiency, currently around 30%.
You can potentially get about 1kW if you cover a vehicle with panels, on a good, bright, sunny and preferably cool day and at the right solar orientation.
The practical reality is more like 50-100W in real world conditions.
An EV draws about 150-200Wh/km. That’s a power consumption of 10kW or so.
We are off by a factor of 10-100.
The economics are almost but not quite there (ie not really. But it’s economics)
Then, you’d want to park in direct sunlight, not under cover…
On the other hand, if you are charging at a shopping centre with solar panels covering the car park, or at home with panels, you are effectively driving a solar powered vehicle.
My car is about 70% solar powered on that basis
Here is a handy reminder of how wrong the motoring media have been about EVs and Tesla in particular.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNrrlkASyEQ
The same people are still trotting out the same garbage.
Eston Kohversays:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 2:37 pm
Spot on, it is pretty simple and straight forward.
Barney in Saigon says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 12:34 pm
I must stop speaking Bahasa!
中华人民共和国
I went to Singaporee last week. When I ordered some Char Kway Teoh I spoke at first in Thai!
My mother in law who speaks Mandarin, Hokkien and Bahasa Malayu, but little English, talks to me in Bahasa Malayu, even though my Mandarin is ok. Maybe we revert to the last “non-native” tongue we were speaking when we encounter those different tongues.
Don’t worry cobber in a few days you will be back in the groove.
BTW have you had any “forbidden meats” yet?
steve davis @ #113 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 2:01 pm
Thanks for the link. Two points on this.
(0) It’s a lot of repackaged ad segments with a guy giving his opinions. The words he uses include “blistering”, “game changer”, “reinvented”, “massive”. The professional slick graphics and stirring background music are another clue. I do have to wonder if the presenter is an “influencer”. And he’s telling me to not buy an EV today. I should wait until this new battery (made by a single company) is available “in the next 6 months”. But I can put that aside and accept the tech at face value and ignore the hype.
(1) If you can make a battery that takes you 1000km on a charge, your best idea is to make the battery 30% of that size, reducing the cost, reducing the weight, and still get 500km out of it. (I made up the 500km. But it will be more than 300km because batteries have to transport themselves. Less battery means less weight, which means more km per kg of battery.)
(2) Until new EVs sell for $30K-$40K, they are never going to be mainstream. Another reason to reduce the battery size.
Melbourne’s northern suburbs transformed….
https://mobile.twitter.com/levelcrossings/status/1572442203859095554
Part of the Hawthorn shit-show.
‘Club Statement’ – not attributed to anybody at the Club.
The ‘Statement’ just appears on the web site.
Nothing at all from noble leader Kennett who usually can’t keep his trap shut.
(He should resign in disgrace along with McLachlan).
The Statement starts:
‘Earlier this year the Hawthorn Football Club engaged external First Nations consultants to liaise with current and former First Nations players and staff to learn more about their experience at the club.
This important work has raised disturbing historical allegations that require further investigation. Upon learning of these allegations, the club immediately engaged AFL Integrity as is appropriate.
….’
—————————————
More vomitous stuff. FWIW, the current principle of my school, when ‘alerted’ to allegations of child sexual abuse, also referred in HIS statement to ‘historical’ allegations. Classic Pontius Pilate hand-washing routine. He went quiet after that. Two of teachers were jailed for child sexual abuse of the students.
It is quite clear to me that at least some of these ‘allegations’ have been around for a long time. Why launch the inquiry on thin air? Suddenly the Club ‘leadership’ ‘learns’ about them!
Oooooooooooooooooh Yeeeeeeeeeeeeh!
If there is the slightest truth in any of this: The Board has failed. The President has failed. The coaches have failed. The non-Indigenous players have failed their black brothers.
The maximum power that can be generated through sunlight on earth is approximately 1kw / m2 as that is what hits the earth.
Given our solar panels have around 30 to 40% efficiency that equates to 3 – 400 w / m2.
Even if the average car was covered with solar cells it would only generate a small fraction of what it needs to run and as such it’s somewhat pointless, it would take days to generate enough power to make a difference.
Goldie – Exactly right.
The “cars” in those solar races are built extremely light without the ability to carry much of a load (so the driver is normally little) and even then can only go at most 100 km/hr when the sun is brightest.
Put suspension, a proper body, proper seats, AC, power steering, it is already getting much heavier. The solar panels at most would charge 10% of what is needed if it is sunny and in direct sun light.
Here is a in depth discussion on battery developments in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSml4qdI-vY&t=2862s
A bit long but covers everything from the IRA to mining.
Thanks Ray (UK) for the GB news, I hope you are right…
Upnorthsays:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 2:41 pm
I’m mixing it up, I think of what I want to say and my mind often presents me with two options and I have to sort out which is which. 🙂
Certainly my reflex response is in Bahasa.
As for the forbidden meat, things have changed.
District 1 has been gutted by the pandemic, so many of the family owned cafes and restaurants have shutdown. Places I have been frequenting for more than 15 years, gone.
I did have a Banh Mi for breakfast, but my plan for yesterday was to head to a Greek cafe that did amazing pork gyros. The owner was an old Greek guy and his Viet wife. She made a fantastic extremely hot chilli sauce which complemented the gyros nicely. Sad.
In many ways it’s like visiting for the first time, so I’ve got to explore it all again.
Barney in Cherating says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 3:23 pm
Upnorthsays:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 2:41 pm
District 1 has been gutted by the pandemic, so many of the family owned cafes and restaurants have shutdown. Places I have been frequenting for more than 15 years, gone.
I did have a Banh Mi for breakfast, but my plan for yesterday was to head to a Greek cafe that did amazing pork gyros. The owner was an old Greek guy and his Viet wife. She made a fantastic extremely hot chilli sauce which complemented the gyros nicely. Sad.
In many ways it’s like visiting for the first time, so I’ve got to explore it all again.
中华人民共和国
Banh Mi and Vietnamese Coffee is well worth it. Same as many dining places here. Slowly coming back. Many Farangs now seen. But hey new haunts to find. Keep safe cobber.
Public holidays play havoc with the whole of society. They are a menace, especially when they come out of the blue. Less Public Holidays, more RDO’s. Or squeeze the public holidays into January. Make it an orgy of Public Holidays, a modern Saturnalia of laziness.
The Trobriand Islands have a public holiday for orgies.
I think people in Sydney will be happy to have the day off tomorrow, the weather is going to be horrible. Nice day for a sleep in and to spend some time with family and friends instead of having to go to work or school.
Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 3:35 pm
Make it an orgy of Public Holidays
The Trobriand Islands have a public holiday for orgies.
_________
And fair enough too. I’m not against that happening here, but make it January.
Nath ( It appears) is going nuts because of public holidays. 🙂
nath at 3:30 pm
Soooo much lost productivity lost due to Sat. +Sun
, made even worse by slacking that they cause on Friday and Monday. So no time off at all must be the way to go. Just ask those nice people over at the AFR and BCA.
16 Official Public Holidays in Thailand – but we are getting a few extra this year because of ASEAN and some we missed last year because of COVID. There was almost a week of Public Holidays when the last King died.
This is interesting:
“If you ever wondered how to get the longest holidays while taking the least amount of time off, consider public holidays that can come in handy to stretch out that break. The savings platform CupoNation Australia has analysed the number of public holidays across 195 countries worldwide to find out where you can enjoy more paid time off and, hence, score the biggest number of holidays
The countries to work in for more holidays
Iran tops the ranking. Iranian workers are entitled to one month paid annual leave and 27 paid public holidays.
Azerbaijan, Bulgaria and Malaysia share the second place with 19 paid public holidays. Colombia comes third with 18 paid public holidays.
Norway and has the lowest in the world with only two paid public holidays.
Workers in the most European countries enjoy 10-14 paid public holidays a year. The UK is not so holiday minded, with only eight. Greece might have a reputation for being relaxed, but the numbers tell a different story, only four mandatory paid public holidays.
11 days is an average number of paid public holidays across 195 countries worldwide.
Australia does pretty well
Overall Australian workers do pretty well with 10 paid public holidays which brings Australia to the 9th place in the global ranking alongside with Morocco, Qatar and Vietnam”.
If you ever decide to take up a job in the United States, you will be in for a shock. Employers in the United States are not required to provide any vacation time and there are zero paid public holidays.”
https://www.hrdive.com/press-release/20190625-ranking-of-the-countries-with-the-most-public-holidays-1/
nath @ #137 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 3:30 pm
Bah! Humbug!
Tomorrow is Hobbit Day, perhaps nath will feel comfortable celebrating that instead . Happy birthday Frodo and Bilbo..
C@tmomma @ #139 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 3:07 pm
But the chaos, C@t! Not to mention the lazy inducing menacing havoc.
poroti @ #145 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 3:14 pm
What do you have against Samwise? Is it because of his sham affection for Rosie Cotton to hide his true feelings for Frodo?
Fagan has stood down. He is saying that he was not consulted for the Report and looks forward to having his say.
I assume that this means that Clarkson was not consulted either.
WTF?
Upnorth – The lack of holidays doesn’t really affect the Greeks. They just go at a slower pace.
B.S. Fairman @ #149 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 3:21 pm
What is the rush? They know they will inherit the earth.