The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
In the early 70s, students whose number had come up in the ballot had to pass all their units every year or the deferment of their call up would be rescinded. I knew which of my students were in this situation and readied myself to give them all a bare pass regardless. In the event they, unsurprisingly, worked their butts off and all passed my unit with flying colours. Many of them were also on the streets protesting, as was I. Being at uni (or in our case a CAE) didn’t mean standing aside from what was happening in the world.
Boerwar 6:03 pm
I’m thinking………….
Snappy Tom at 6:41
Thanks for the reminder. I’d forgotten it, buried under so much crap that came after it.
When is a racist not a racist?
When you are trying to discredit a Greens Senator.
This worth a read for those following the Ukraine thing. I think IWS is a fairly conservative site and while their maps tend to be a day or so behind some other sites i think they are based on more properly confirmed info…most of the time.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25
Have a look at the map around Lyman. Looks to me like both main ground lines of supply are under serious threat. I am going to do a bit more searching but i think RU 1st Guards Army that got out of Izium is currently in Lyman?? If the Ukrainians cut off / cause RU pull out / encircle?? Lyman….. then that’s a major defeat.
Good to see the federal ICAC bill will be introduced to parliament tomorrow. This government is barely 4 months old but has already achieved so much.
It feels this parliament has already had more sittings than the last parliament in the entirety of its 3 year term! (not really, but there’s been actual governing rather than a kabuki show)
“Good to see the federal ICAC bill will be introduced to parliament tomorrow. This government is barely 4 months old but has already achieved so much.”
🙂 Yup 🙂
‘a r says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 6:20 pm
Boerwar @ #1830 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 6:03 pm
So you are saying that Hanson’s words must have been racist because of a general vibe.
I’m saying treating Hanson as a racist would be treated is 100% fair enough, imo. Make of that what you will, I guess.
But those words, wtte, have been directed at me. I am white.
Perhaps the speaker took you for some sort of Italian? ‘
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I might just let that one through to the keeper!
a r:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 5:55 pm
[‘Racism, nativism, etc., etc., is all the same shit.’]
Without doubt. Arguing about the words Hanson chose to use is merely an exercise in semantics. And if she’s censured, her base will be enlivened by a poll bounce of at least 0.5%. She should nonetheless be called out.
_____________________________________
For me, it’s indeed pleasing that nearly two-thirds of those polled are on all four with the “Voice” – similar numbers to the SSM plebiscite. From a political perspective, Dutton will fall into place: he has no other option other than to head further to the margins, where it can be very lonely.
‘poroti says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 6:54 pm
Boerwar 6:03 pm
So now there is a ‘class’ of words that must be racist even if they are not racist words.
I’m thinking………….
‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
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Apt to the circumstances…. !
‘Mavis says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:04 pm
a r:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 5:55 pm
[‘Racism, nativism, etc., etc., is all the same shit.’]
….’
—————————
It is not, actually. US nativism in the early 19th century was directed at the Irish. Australia had a strain of the same: ‘INNA’ on shop windows (in relation to a job ad) as late as the 1960’s. “Irish Need Not Apply”.
What memories conscription and anti Vietnam war demonstrations stories .
I will never forget seeing mounted police horses ramming dozens of protestors against Coles/ Myer large shop windows in the Bourke St mall. The windows became concave nearing explosion point.
Since the Vietnam draft laws were a bit of dog’s breakfast when it came to enforcement, imagine the shambles in Russia right now!
https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-214-summary/
Quite plausible maps here i think. Bit more recently updated than ISW ones, but no hype.
frednk says:
“I was in lottery the year Whitlam got elected. The Frazer government became less forceful with the enforcement as time went on …”
Whitlam ended National Service in practice on 7th December 1972 and legally with the assent of the National Service Termination Act on 21st June 1973. It was dim memory for most by Fraser’s time.
C@t
Denver Riggleman worked for jan 6 until April this year. He left due to the committee being reluctant to entertain the idea of subpoenaing Ginni Thomas.
Confessions/imacca
“ “Good to see the federal ICAC bill will be introduced to parliament tomorrow. This government is barely 4 months old but has already achieved so much.”
I strongly agree (again). I think the earlier this gets operating the better for Australia and Labor.
As surely as Scomo kept a few secrets, I am willing to bet there is a lot more dirt on the last government as yet unknown. With a Federal ICAC and the opportunity for public servant witnesses to testify without fear of career destruction, I suspect we will find out far more than we already know, both of maladministration as well as corruption. Such stories would make a delightful lead in to the 2025 election.
Can anyone post a critical analysis of the Hawthorn football club racism scenario?
I’m putting the champers on hold until I see what is actually passed. What’s in the tin better bloody well match the label.
Dr John says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:10 pm
What memories conscription and anti Vietnam war demonstrations stories .
I will never forget seeing mounted police horses ramming dozens of protestors against Coles/ Myer large shop windows in the Bourke St mall. The windows became concave nearing explosion point.
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Thanks Dr John. What was Dylan, Pete Seger, or Buffalo Springfield like at the time? Were they really into writing and didnt like hanging out much. You must have some fascinating stories about your time with them. I hope one day you can share them.
porotisays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:30 pm
“ “Good to see the federal ICAC bill will be introduced to parliament tomorrow. This government is barely 4 months old but has already achieved so much.”
I’m putting the champers on hold until I see what is actually passed. What’s in the tin better bloody well match the label.
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Your staying Mumm?
Luigi Smith says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:13 pm
..
Whitlam ended National Service in practice on 7th December 1972 and legally with the assent of the National Service Termination Act on 21st June 1973. It was dim memory for most by Fraser’s time.
Your right, Fraser was defense minister for some of the period, but Whitlam downed, McMahon.
Scout
Here is ABC report.
My mail is that Jed Anderson is the main complainant.
He was a former player at Hawthorn, and currently at North Melbourne (now out of contract) is the one who went to the media.
He doesnt want clarkson to coach North.
Meanwhile North after speaking to Clarkson are still sticking by him.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/alastair-clarkson-and-chris-fagan-named-in-hawks-review/101452320
C@tmomma @ #1826 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 5:46 pm
Which direction is North, Cat?
Don’t be a smart arse, yabba. It doesn’t suit you. Hobbits don’t make good smart arses.
So, I’ll just have you know while you were ensconced in the comfort of Uni lecture halls, my late husband was having his nose smeared across his face by NSW Police who had removed their badges so they could beat protesters against the Vietnam War like him. This was at the same time that he was thrown into a plate glass window by Robin Askin’s thugs in blue uniforms.
So I got one thing wrong because I presumed that the system would be randomised to the extent that some on a particular day would be called up and others not. Big deal!
Oh well, I guess being comfortably ensconced in the University allowed you to develop your taste for the finer things in life unencumbered, instead of getting out to fight for the things you believe in, as others were doing at that time.
Oh dear Cat! I was directly involved in organising the demonstrations, with Hall Greenland (a Fort St classmate), Peter B, George the Greek, Gareth, Hansen, and several fellow members of the SRC. I was trampled by police horses in the pillared entrance to the old Bank of NSW building in Martin Place, diagonally opposite the GPO, after marching from outside the uni Union building. I spent that night ensconced in Darlinghurst lockup.
You tend to presume too much, Cat, based on ‘facts’ which you dream up for yourself. I really do suggest that you ponder, which direction is North? It just, possibly, may not coincide with your assumption.
————-
I have never seen such a poster on a blog with such confidence as to the c@t as to her beliefs. There is no skerrick of the internet that she cannot find to justify her position. She is the google master.
Remeber that time the c@t informed us all that she, in fact, was in possession or had knowledge of a secret (but somehow the c@t discovered it on google) document which suggested that the CCP had a 500 year plan to invade Australia. Oh the good times which were had.
Boerwar:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:08 pm
As I proffered, a case of semantics. I’m white, of an Anglo-Saxon heritage, as such I’ve never been subjected to discrimination save for being called a whinging Pom. But many less fortunate than me have been. I’d suggest Hanson’s ill-informed racism grates on migrants – personally hurting them.
One of the bonuses of the current Labor Government is that it will see off Peter Dutton.
I’d give Optus a big fail for how they have published their data breach.. the latest website has a small head banner ( & link ) otherwise nothing.. are they trying to underplay it?
Dr John at 7:33 pm
Boom …. tish. Perhaps even suppressing my natural joie de Veuve
frednksays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:35 pm
Luigi Smith says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:13 pm
..
Whitlam ended National Service in practice on 7th December 1972 and legally with the assent of the National Service Termination Act on 21st June 1973. It was dim memory for most by Fraser’s time.
Your right, Fraser was defense minister for some of the period, but Whitlam downed, McMahon.
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Another memory standing near ponce Fraser being interviewed by the media outside Melbourne University law building.
Mavis, perhaps highlighting that you are in fact, of white angle-saxon heritage, the notion that ‘migrants’ can be treated with the same brush and their opinion of Hanson falls into the same group think is mistaken.
Plenty of migrants support her. They are prepared to close the door. They dont like the ‘other migrants’.
But then, I am just generalising. Perhaps you should stop too. Lest your white anglo-saxon heritage really be on show. Or am i just generalising?
Thank you Victoria – I have a close friend who is defending Hawthorn strongly saying it is all about ‘disgruntled employees’ and there is no such thing as systemic racism.
Rakali @ #1662 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 1:52 am
Oh behave yourself Rakali, Keir Starmer is not a Lord
Anyway I’d have thought you’d have been more exercised by Mary-Doll Sturgeon’s bowing and scraping to King Charles III recently .. she’s pro-Monarchy so why shouldn’t Starmer be?
The SNP’s glorious independent Scotland will still have a Head of State from Buck House, pathetic
wranslide:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:44 pm
[‘Or am i just generalising?’]
Affirmative.
Helen Haines on 7:30 a happy person it appears?? Will be interested in what amendments get moved in the Senate. I think this FICAC bill is going to take a little bit longer than people wanted, but wind up a good one and will actually get through the Senate fairly easily once every body has been seen to have their say on it.
Then the fun starts as it machinery gets into place and Lib / Nats piss themselves. 🙂
Sacrebleu!
Starmer is acting like … he wants to win an election in 2024 … how very Albanese of him.
The scoundrel!
Rex
Further to our discussion the other day – Gary Neville is at Labour Conference today in a “discussion session” with Keir Starmer 🙂
‘Mavis says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:39 pm
Boerwar:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:08 pm
As I proffered, a case of semantics. I’m white, of an Anglo-Saxon heritage, as such I’ve never been subjected to discrimination save for being called a whinging Pom. But many less fortunate than me have been. I’d suggest Hanson’s ill-informed racism grates on migrants – personally hurting them.’
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This, like nearly all other posts on the subject today, begs the question.
Wranslide 7.37
When one has Dog or the SDA by your side, one has every reason to be confident. She regales us with informed and uninformed s*#t virtually 24/7. Sometimes it’s metaphorical, sometimes actual and occasionally factual but generally well worth scrolling past.
‘Victoria says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:36 pm
Scout
Here is ABC report.
My mail is that Jed Anderson is the main complainant.
He was a former player at Hawthorn, and currently at North Melbourne (now out of contract) is the one who went to the media.
He doesnt want clarkson to coach North.
Meanwhile North after speaking to Clarkson are still sticking by him.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/alastair-clarkson-and-chris-fagan-named-in-hawks-review/101452320‘
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Absolutely 100% regardless of the outcome of the current batch of complaints, Hawthorn has a problem: a President who collects golliwogs. A President who names one of the Golliwogs after an Indigenous player. A President who personally insulted the wife of an Indigenous player. A President who was absent o/s when the storm broke.
Scout
Retired player Shaun Burgoyne was shocked and surprised by these revelations, and he was the leader and mentor for the indigenous group of players.
I find it surprising that these young rookie players never sought his counsel.
Very strange.
Faruqi is asking the Senate to publicly censure Hanson for racism.
There is an assertion that racism occurred but there is absolutely nothing provided by way of supporting Faruqi’s assertion.
The charge is not one that Hanson is at heart a racist who has a history of racist attacks.
(I have intensely strong views about both of these statements in relation to Hanson.)
The charge is that in this instance Hanson made a racist statement and that the Senate should censure Hanson for making a racist statement. Having a gut feel that Hanson was being Hanson and that therefore Hanson MUST have been making a racist statement does not cut it for me.
Boerwar
Kennett is an idiot. After the cyril rioli imbroglio, he became the outgoing President.
And as much as I dislike Kennett, his insult towards Riolis partner wasnt racist.
He is a pompous idiot.
Who can forget all the cray cray stuff he spouted during the pandemic.
He even went as far as spreading rumours that Dan Andrews was about to resign due to victoria becoming ungovernable due to the management of covid by vic state govt.
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This, like nearly all other posts on the subject today, begs the question.
Poliphilisays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Wranslide 7.37
When one has Dog or the SDA by your side, one has every reason to be confident. She regales us with informed and uninformed s*#t virtually 24/7. Sometimes it’s metaphorical, sometimes actual and occasionally factual but generally well worth scrolling past.
———–
Thanks poliphilsays. It is hard to scroll past as there is so much of it. But, yes, it is probably best to try to scroll past it all.
Check this guy out torching the recruitment office in Irkutsk – persistent he is. Would probably make a good soldier…
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1574291477080854528
spr
A bit of vodka goes a long way…
Vic
The Riolis did not refer to a single incident but to a pattern of incidents. Goodes was run out of the game. Cyril the same, IMO.
There’s scant evidence that conscripts make good soldiers:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/01/shaken-russian-army-conscripts-make-perfect-targets-for-morale-crushing-operations/?sh=40d8cb1551f8
Agreed Boerwar….a pattern not a single event.
Mavis says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 8:31 pm
There’s scant evidence that conscripts make good soldiers:
____________
They’d make good prospects for a coup though. Of course there’s no chance any of the conscripted units will get anywhere near Moscow or St. Petersburg. Putin has well paid and well looked after troops there to protect the regime.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 12:34 pm
Amy gets it:
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
“The constant attempts to rebrand politicians by claiming they aren’t who they are in public can’t change the key metric of who someone is – what do they do with power?
It doesn’t matter how funny someone is or if they meditate – what do they do with power? In this case, we know.”
Something about leopards never changing their spots is one of the few truisms in life imho.