The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
Know this was directed at ar but……Errrr…no VE, i think you are well missing the point here.
“You’re making the assumption that the Uluru Statement was completely determined purely by what Indigenous people wanted. It’s not. It’s a combination of what Indigenous people wanted and want Indigenous people thought white people would allow them to have.”
The Uluru statement is the best indicator we have so far about what Indigenous people, as a whole want. Not perfect, but seems like something that at least most of people can get behind and go on with. And yup, its something that is achievable in the current political environment and country that we live in now.
Pretending that the Voice is the end of a journey, as Labor are doing, is misrepresenting the views of Indigenous people.
“As I’ve already said above, I’ll be voting for the Voice. As I said above, that doesn’t make it sufficient or best policy.”
Good to hear, but i disagree that it isn’t the best policy for now, to go with and then build on.
“As to doing a Treaty later, the problem is that the Treaty should enshrine the Voice. A referendum can always be undone by voters. A Treaty cannot.”
Absolutely not….and that’s the value of a constitutionally enshrined Voice to Parliament.
Yup, technically a future govt could have a referendum to change the constitution again and remove the Voice to Parliament. Not going to happen. That would be a referendum practically certain to fail. I would consider a Treaty much more “ephemeral” as breaking that is purely a matter for the Govt of the day with no reference to the voters except accountability at an election, maybe the high Court??
The thing about a constitutionally enshrined Voice is that …….well, its in the constitution. Cant be silenced. If we get that in the constitution then its a solid base to build reconciliation from, AND it provides a forum to do Treaty and Truth from. Yup, depends on how its actually, practically set up, but getting voice in place is i think an essential first step.
Its a beginning of a process that will be fraught and difficult for a lot of people. Treaty and Truth Telling will be hard. But, with Voice in place first they will be do-able. Without voice in place first i don’t think they will happen.
And THAT is for me the problem with people like Thorpe, who don’t want the Voice first. Seems to me that SHE wants to be THE Voice, and is not happy with a situation where SHE is one of many. Not a person i have a lot of respect for, particularly as she appears to be using the Greens as a vehicle for her own political ambition….and that’s going to have knock on effects in other important areas of policy.
There is lots of anger out there. Went to Midnight Oil concert last night and left feeling almost assaulted by the wall of sound, cacophonous, angry feel to it. Interesting, and the support acts were good. 🙂 The anger is a factor and seems that’s tapping into this change in Govt so we want change yesterday or right now thing. Understand that, but if we want REAL change got to bring a majority along which takes time and people at least trying to understand other positions.
nath @ #1665 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 10:53 am
I don’t think Albo is the inspiring authoritative leader type like Hawke or Keating. So far, he looks to me like the type of PM who will be dictated by what the Cabinet balance wants, like Turnbull.
Helen Haines MP
@helenhainesindi
Joint statement from members of the crossbench: we are united in a will for a better standard of politics, and an integrity watchdog that will be respected by the public and improve trust in our democracy, just as our communities are.
Boerwar
They knew a long time before that. They would have known what the implications were of the Pashtun loya jirga (grand council) called in the early noughties . It threw its support behind the Taliban. They did so not because they loved the Taliban, they didn’t, they did so because we had outstayed our welcome, we had become to be seen as occupiers/invaders and so the Taliban were fighting ‘invaders’ and you know how it is when it comes to Afghans and ‘invaders’ 🙂
A journo, Saleem Shahzad, wrote at the time that this event meant the war was lost by the US. Unfortunately he did not get the satisfaction of seeing his then seemingly bold prediction come to pass as he was later kidnapped and murdered . You can guess who the suspects are ……….
https://cpj.org/data/people/saleem-shahzad/
Amy gets it:
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
The constant attempts to rebrand politicians by claiming they aren’t who they are in public can’t change the key metric of who someone is – what do they do with power?
It doesn’t matter how funny someone is or if they meditate – what do they do with power? In this case, we know.
Amy has a clear eye and a sharp pen.
The black humour from Russia on some of the feeds I follow is transcending the standard memes…
The Putin mobilisation is not going to end well
Bravo, imacca at 12.17pm.
VCT Et3e says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:33 am
TRC/ Truth and Reconciliation Commission
CtG/ Closing the Gap
VTP/ Voice to Parliament
Why do the Crossbenchers want to hand unaccountable and unassailable wealth and power to an unelected body?
sprocket_,
I’ve already read the complaint of one young Muscovite (and the draft is already coming for them too), who said he and his friends have just graduated from university to be architects but they received their call up papers in the mail today.
What a waste of the younger generation of Russians simply to fuel Putin’s inability to admit he’s made a colossal mistake.
And the ‘Whistleblower Protection Commissioner won’t be bastardised by the Coalition once they get back into power, will it? 🙄
C@t
The 300,000 is the first wave. There are 3 more, taking the the number of draftees to 1.3m.
261,000 have left Russia in the last week – mostly men.
The Greens are verballing Labor as only being interested in the ‘symbolism’ of the Voice.
This is another rather large lie.
There is nothing new in that Greens’ tactic.
Here is the first line in Labor’s First Nations Policy:
‘A Labor Government will:
Implement the Uluru Statement in full – Voice, Treaty and Truth. ’
============================================
This was the first commitment re-confirmed as a commitment and a priority by the newly-elected Prime Minister Albanese. Every single sign since then is that the Labor Government is fully committed to implementing that promise.
The Greens claimed during the elections that their policy was to support the Statement from the Heart in full.
Here is what the Greens’ First Nations’s spokesperson had to say, STRAIGHT AFTER THE ELECTION, about ‘the Voice’: ‘It is a complete waste of money.’
There are 20-22 million Russian men aged 18-45.
They may waste 300,000 or so.
But there will always be the next 300,000.
The systemic military problems are obvious but not unsurmountable.
But there is a major economic cost: the best of the best are skedaddling from Russia as fast as they can go.
The brain drain must be enormous.
I was reading that the German government is thinking of accepting them as refugees, recognising their youth, skills, enthusiasm, courage, etc. It contrasts, I think, with Lithuania who demands they return home to fight against Putin.
Why an influx of younger eager beavers might be just the shot:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/
Protesters
https://youtu.be/0KA1wdGMypA
Itza
Courage.
I wonder whether Aussies will have any such ‘right stuff’ when push comes to shove?
Some of the EU nations have major skill and manpower shortages – could be smart to snap up the brain drain out of Russia
Labour shortages wherever you look
In France, around half of the companies recently surveyed by the largest French employers’ association CPME were trying to hire. Of them, 94% say they struggle to find the right fit – or any candidates, for that matter.
Across the Rhine, the picture looks very similar. As many as 87% of German family businesses surveyed by the Munich-based Ifo Institute on behalf of the foundation for family businesses said they felt the effects of the workers’ shortage.
Hop on a probably understaffed Danube cruise ship and float down to Vienna, and you will hear the same complaint.
“With more than 250,000 vacancies, we have an all-time high and employees are urgently needed everywhere,” said Julia Moreno-Hasenöhrl, deputy head of the department for social and health policy at the Austrian economic chamber.
Turning north, all the way to Finland, companies are facing the same problem.
“All sectors suffer from a high incidence of recruitment problems and labour shortage. Especially health and social services have a difficult situation, also food and accommodation sector,” said Heikki Räisänen, research director at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment.
Even in Spain, where the unemployment rate is still rather high, at 12.6%, companies struggle to find workers, especially in gastronomy, tourism, and construction.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/
nath, looking for nath
A Mr Shorten is holding a press conference at 1300.
Even nath will give this a tick..
Bill Shorten is making his announcements on the NDIA:
Australian Paralympic legend and disability advocate Kurt Fearnley AO has been appointed Chairman of the Board of the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA).
I would be happy to work full time at gastronomy.
I would even be willing to give up my amateur status!
By way of contrast:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-youth-unemployment-college-grads-jobs-economy-51660940926
T he NDIA Board will also welcome new members Dr Graeme Innes AM and Ms Maryanne Diamond AO.
There are now five people with disability on the NDIA Board, including current board members Leah van Poppel and Meredith Allan, the largest number in its history.
Dr Denis Napthine AO, formerly Chair, will return as a Board Member.
After an extensive recruitment process, the National Disability Scheme (NDIS) will also have a new Chief Executive, with Rebecca Falkingham PSM accepting the role.
Ms Falkingham has extensive experience leading departments and major projects in NSW and Victoria. She joins the NDIS after spending several years as the Secretary of the Victorian Department of Justice and Community Safety in Victoria.
Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
The pound dropped to an all-time low of $1.035 against the US dollar today as markets opened the weekend after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget of tax cuts and further borrowing spooked markets and raised fears of a UK recession.
Gilts suffered their heaviest selling in three decades on Friday and this morning the pound plunged to its lowest as investors reckon planned tax cuts will stretch government finances to the limit.
The EU may have to take economic refugees from the UK
Scrap this disgusting handout to the wealthy !
sprocket at 11.06 am
The Dutton fluffery isn’t even original. Perrottet did it in May 2011, listing all his (male) mates:
“I have been blessed to have many great mates whose friendship and support I truly value. Many of them do not share my love of politics, nor in fact my politics. I thank them for making me even more stubborn in my beliefs. I would also like to thank the following people for their friendship, guidance and advice: Noel McCoy, Steve Joseph, Kyle Kutasi, Nigel Freitas, Thomas Tudehope, Damien Tudehope, Joe Suttie, Phillip Elias, Pat Doherty, Gary Doherty, Tim Abrams, Gerard Abrams, Tony Montgomery, Michael McAuley, Joe Zady, Eddie James, Nat Smith, Anthony McFarlane, Nick Santucci, Richard Fowler, David Ramadge, Jake Hanson, Paul
McCormack, Mitch Leach, Steve Dejong and Tamer Masry.”
Key sentence of his speech: “I thank them for making me even more stubborn in my beliefs.”
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/member/files/66/Dominic%20Perrottet%20Inaugural%20Speech.pdf
Perrottet is difficult to move or to cure, but he should not be difficult to remove. He fails even in comparison with Gladys, whose assessment by ICAC might appear some time before Xmas.
Boerwar @ #1718 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 12:59 pm
Yep. I had the same thought.
I came across these words in a piece in the NYT on misuse of public cameras and their ability to track people without their knowledge.
All well and good? But something felt familiar about the response, and then I realised it’s called DARVO. Until Grace Tame spoke of it, I was unaware of DARVO but now I see it everywhere. DARVO means “Deny”, “Attack” and “Reverse” the “Victim” and “Offender”.
You can see it in EarthCam’s response.
* Deny by staying silent.
* Attack the guy for not seeking permission.
* RVO by claiming violation of copyright.
The article itself goes on to describe how anyone can do this, though it is tedious.
‘
PRGuy
@PRGuy17
Staff at The Age have lashed out at readers after it was revealed the masthead leaned on a discredited paper signed by “experts” to slam the Andrews Government on covid — experts who signed the paper include “Dr Johnny Bananas” and staff from the “University of Your Mum”. #auspol’
nath says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 12:08 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 12:04 pm
I await with anticipation the first Australian muslim soldier being offered the Victoria Cross.
It is only a matter of time.
______
I’m waiting for the first Buddhist to win it.
中华人民共和国
11 Nepalise have won the VC. Most likely Gurkhas and Buddhist.
A generally pessimistic Finnish President, Sauli Niinistö
https://youtu.be/8ZywLkKOg58
C@tmomma 12.41
We had the exact same position here when we first started bootlicking the USA during the ill-conceived Vietnam War.
IIRC, our conscription secret ballot was able to “randomly” select some 40+ of 65 medical students from UoS in one phase of the call-up. Parallels with the Russian situation?
Young men were killed, injured and lives upturned by the depraved decision to support the US blindly. Shame on the turds who formed government at the time and praise be to Gough.
BTW, I abhor Putin’s war in Ukraine which is doing untold damage to both Ukraine and Russia while risking the rest of us.
Don’t tell me that the Greens senators who pocket a quarter of a million a year plus boondoggles are going to actually TAKE the S3 tax cuts?
They could just do their little bit for the burgeoning national debt and refuse to take the cuts at all.
Poliphili @ #1735 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 1:21 pm
I was one. My first cousin in the same year at medical school another. We were very close then. Neither of us went. Our 50 year (three year delayed) reunion is in October.
Ven @ #1685 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 11:35 am
No it can’t.
Going after Bin Laden can be justified, certainly. Going to war against a nation because their government won’t help hunt down and hand over someone who’s a wanted terrorist but who’s also unaffiliated with that government cannot. Unless there was proof that Bin Laden carried out his terrorist operations under their orders, acting as Afghanistan’s agent, then there was never any justification for waging war against them.
The US didn’t need to declare* war on Pakistan to finally get Bin Laden. They just went in, did their thing, and left.
* Or wage an “undeclared” war, as the case actually was in Afghanistan
Dr Doolittle
It was an entertaining book launch for “Happy Together”. A lot of people from FASIC and DFAT were there.
David Walker’s main point, which he has been making since “Anxious Nation” is that the government and commentariat view the Australian-China relationship in an ahistoric or even anti-historic framework. His best point was that it is understandable that they know little of Chinese history but more worryingly they know no Australian history.
Starting with his favourite subject of the Invasion novels of the 1880s (“Shooting Mabel”) he led to his own history of being drafted (but rejected because of sight) for Vietnam and B A Santamaria’s use of secret documents to argue that China was on a course of world domination with Australia as the first prize. These arguments win popular support for a time but have always faded in the face of reality.
His other favourite point is that every Prime Minister (with the exception of Morrison) since Menzies’ first term have spoken of Australia discovering its geographic place. There is always a short flurry of activity but little is achieved and changes mainly come through trade and population.
Warwick Smith (ex Lib for Bass) was there and he gave a scathing assessment of Morrison.
Plenty to think about
sprocket_ @ #1722 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 1:07 pm
Bravo!
Now let’s see them avoid the Class Action for the Aged with a Disability being allowed to access the NDIS by just ordering it be so.
OC at 1:38pm
Indeed. I abandoned history as a subject in my early teens, in fact as soon as I could. I regret now not knowing history better, but what we were being taught was irrelevant to us, and for the most part earnestly incomprehensible. Cotton gins, British industry, somewhere called Birmingham, and reams and reams of dates and places on the other side of the planet, most of them English. Australian history was the heroism of the “early explorers” or Captain Cook. We didn’t learn about the 20th century. And Terra Nullius was an obvious dissonance even to our young minds. History made no sense. It had no bearing. Why learn it? And I expect that learned bias persists among many. I hope it is better taught today.
Marles misleading Australians. Shame.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/sep/26/australian-politics-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-mark-dreyfus-integrity-corruption-canberra
Should the FICAC scope cover grey corruption such as the serial misrepresentations peddled by the Greens with respect to the Voice?
Should the FICAC scope cover grey corruption such as the invisible Greens policy processes?
Should the FICAC scope go to sexual misbehaviours in Greens branches for the past 15 years?
Should FICAC scope go to the promises that are beyond the scope of the candidates such as the Greens promises to cut Brisbane Airport noise levels?
Should FICAC scope go to the Greens’ false claims that their policies are budgeted?
I see the ABC is giving a microphone to Alan Jones (QandA).
They clearly have no standards of decency.
Qanda is finished if Jones becomes host.
ItzaDream
Pleased you were allowed eventually to contribute to society in a meaningful way.
Where are all the clever journos who said Labor would put off FICAC legislation until after Xmas?
The Aussie who can make the sun shine after dark
John Lasich started concentrating solar power in his backyard in 1975.
Underwhelmed by the small amounts of energy produced by the solar cells of that era, Lasich set about building homemade devices to reflect and concentrate sunlight onto the cells to generate extra power.
“I made a little concentrator, which was made out of the bladder from a wine cask. I got a couple of my mates at uni to help me drink a flagon of wine for good cause,” he recalls.
…
An ability to store the solar power and transmit it to customers in the evenings when power prices are normally higher is fast becoming a critical requirement for those trying to commercialise solar in remote parts of Australia.
That is where Lasich’s solar cells come to the fore; aside from producing electricity, they can also capture the heat that lands on the surface of the solar cell.
Raygen can capture heat by circulating cold water through the solar cells. The water rises in temperature to about 95 degrees by the time it has exited the cell.
Under the energy storage system that Raygen is building into the Mildura site, the hot water will be stored in a nearby dam where insulation keeps it hot for weeks, as if it were a “big thermos”.
Producing power at night
At the time of Raygen’s choosing, it will use the hot water to boil ammonia, which has a lower boiling point than water, to spin a turbine and create power.
“We get two grabs at it. We get the electrical bit and we get the thermal bit. What we’ve done then is developed a storage system that sits around that,” Lasich says.
“There’s no lithium, no nickel, no cobalt, none of those materials, it’s actually lower cost. For every extra hour that we need, you simply dig a larger hole and add more water. So, it’s actually much lower cost architecture than batteries,” he says.
Full article –
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/the-aussie-who-can-make-the-sun-shine-after-dark-20220922-p5bk2x
Australia’s National Service Act 1964 did not select individuals: it selected birth dates by lottery. It also allowed a deferment of training obligation for tertiary students (and CMF members and conscientious objectors).
So no individual selection conspiracy could have deliberately targetted medical students at any university.
Luigi SMith
The first Australian draft pulled 51% of available birthdates our of the barrel. This gave the army the ability to pick and choose to whatever extent they wanted to.