The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
@a r
You’re making the assumption that the Uluru Statement was completely determined purely by what Indigenous people wanted. It’s not. It’s a combination of what Indigenous people wanted and want Indigenous people thought white people would allow them to have.
Pretending that the Voice is the end of a journey, as Labor are doing, is misrepresenting the views of Indigenous people.
As I’ve already said above, I’ll be voting for the Voice. As I said above, that doesn’t make it sufficient or best policy.
As to doing a Treaty later, the problem is that the Treaty should enshrine the Voice. A referendum can always be undone by voters. A Treaty cannot.
ATSIC operated from 1990 to 2004. The general public does not remember ATSIC and its abolition. What happened 18 years ago and whether parties to decisions back then were right or wrong would not be informing opinions regarding the Voice. In any case, the Voice will be enshrined in the Constitution. It would not be able to be abolished by Parliament or by decree.
VE
The Greens should seriously try to stop telling Indigenous people what is good for them.
The Statement from the Heart has been framed by majority Indigenous opinion as an OFFER.
Think about how completely that smashes the white framing, which just happens to be the Greens framing, that Indigenous peoples are begging whites for a favour. Bolt frames it just like the Greens frame it, BTW.
davo at 9:37 am
Labor making it ‘work’ by (now here is a bigly hint) following a suggestion from the BCA. Anything from the BCA when it comes to climate change has to be under huge suspicion. When it comes to the BCA and their suggestions on anything SOP is that either the taxpayer or workers will be getting screwed over for the benefit of their members.
VE
Fancy the majority of Indigenous people getting the order wrong in the Statement from the Heart. But that is nothing that a bit of Greens’ paternalism can’t fix for them!
You have to wonder why Labor did not include in it’s amendment for the Voice that it be elected. I am assuming they think it would harm its chances of getting up. But it would have strengthened it considerably.
@Boerwar – you’re telling Indigenous people that when they asked for a Voice, what they really meant was that the Voice was the only thing they ever wanted, or ever can want again. You’re telling them they now need to shut up, and do exactly as Albo says.
I’m listening to Indigenous people, who are stating that a Voice is just one tiny step on a journey.
We should definitely take that tiny step, but we just need to keep going and take the next hundred steps that are needed.
”
nathsays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 10:15 am
Of course the Greens will support the Voice when the time comes. They are staking their claims for further action, while Price is concerned that Labor is just using the issue as a giant photo opportunity:
“Senator Price is against the Voice because she feels Mr Albanese is just ‘virtue-signalling’ and merely wants his own ‘Whitlam moment’ like other Labor Prime Ministers.”
I think that’s a bit harsh, but I can understand the cynicism around it all. After all, there are plenty of people who would back Labor’s support for the scrapping of ATSIC one year, and then back Labor’s support for the Voice another year. As long as it’s the Labor agenda, regardless of the actual policy. And by ‘people’ I mean stooges.
”
Like opposing Iraq war 2.0 but supporting Afghanistan war.
Alan Ramsay once compared Simon Crean with other Labor leaders after 1996 defeat saying Crean was useless leader pretty much on everything except on one thing, where he was able to convince ALP caucus to oppose Iraq was 2 resolution at the height of Howard popularity and when AUKUS countries wanted revenge on Muslim countries.
(He was proved right in the end).
Ramsay wrote at that time that if it had been any other Labor leader like Beazley, Rudd or Gillard they would have acquiescenced to Howard demand for support.
Look at contrast with Afghanistan war. When Australia initially went to war against Afghanistan with US and UK, Beazley was the leader. To continue support for Afghanistan and Iraq war, Rudd was the leader. When Obama went for Surge operation in Afghanistan, Gillard happily accepted his request to increase Australian troops.
That is the reason a lot of ALP supporters on PB oppose Iraq war but support Afghanistan war (because that is official policy of ALP not because it is morally right or wrong).
p
True.
But there is for and against.
For… is that they want investment certainty.
VE
You say you’re listening? Crap. You ignore two thirds of the Uluru Statement.
Given that Labor’s policy is to do the Statement in full you’re also lying when you say they are doing the Voice and nothing else.
VE
Good one! Cherry picking selected Indigenous people is an old whitefella trick. Divide and conquer!
Re: Labour Party conference UK……
Keir Hardie a founder of the Labour Party.
Lord (?) Keir Starmer leads the singing of:
Bwanas Bolt and Bandt are on the same page.
Politics makes for weird bedfellows!
nath,
That’s an insulting thing to say, that I am telling Indigenous people to shut up and do as Albanese says. No I’m not and I would never dare do that. One of my closest friends is Indigenous and the grandmother of our Robertson MP, Dr Gordon Reid, is also a dear friend, so it is the last thing I would do. However, what I do want is for them to receive the Constitutional recognition they deserve, plus everything else proposed, and as soon as possible. That’s not demanding they do what Albanese wants, that’s demnading they get what they want.
ATSIC was one of the crowning achievements of the Hawke/Keating government. Labor’s support for its abolition is a reflection of the poor caliber of leaders it has had since 1996. I’m hoping for much better with Albo. Time will tell.
mimhoff @ #1344 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 10:51 am
Exactly.
nath @ #1349 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 10:53 am
That was then and this is now. Build a bridge and get over it, nath.
”
nathsays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 10:29 am
C@tmomma says:
Also, I’d love to see your proof that Constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians ‘can easily be worked around by a cunning Liberal government. Very easy to do.’
You know, instead of just a snappy one-liner. How about some meat on the bones? Prove it.
______________
Well. I will vote for the Voice, and I believe so will the Greens.
As for the Liberals, they can easily neuter it.
A Howard level operator will change it from being elected to appointed.
He will then appoint a small group of indigenous Australians like Senator Price who share the Liberal viewpoint.
Politics 101.
”
There is no need for Howard level operator to do that. Dutton level operator is sufficient with the help of Price level operator. No amount of hand wringing by ALP or Greens in opposition will make a difference if it comes to that situation. That is reason why LNP should be kept out of power for a long time.
Compare this to the waffle on insiders last weekend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TQ5Az1FO8k&ab_channel=CNN
Voice Endeavoursays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 9:58 am
So you disagree with the majority view of First Nation’s people and toe the Green party line that they didn’t quite get it right.
How condescending.
In a follow up to the SmearStralian puff piece on Dutton, the influencers on him are now revealed (not many females..)
One could imagine someone making this up?
The Afghanistan War was launched to go after Osama Bin Laden and the regime that was protecting him. Iraq 1.0 was fought in response to an act of aggression by Iraq against a small neighbour. Iraq 2.0 was launched on the basis of trumped up charges in an attempt to rearrange the political geography of the Middle East to a configuration more friendly to US interests. There is a difference.
Uh huh.
Real Peter.
Interview with the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan:
https://youtu.be/EETQdusxW_E
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 10:43 am
Pretending that the Voice is the end of a journey, as Labor are doing, is misrepresenting the views of Indigenous people.
_________________________________
Saying that Labor is pretending the Voice is the end of a journey is misrepresenting the Labor Party and the vast majority of its voters.
The Greens have been accused of seeking purity over practicality and getting nothing. But that is far too kind. The Greens are a fantasy political party obsessed with product differentiation from Labor and nothing more. They are as cynically destructive as the Coalition and have the same underlying moral compass. They just think they are better.
You mean the dour, sober-suited skinhead is Pretend Peter?
No one is pretending the Voice is the end of the journey. These sort of journeys don’t end. It’s a waystation, an essential step for getting us onto the next stage.
Luke Darcy is advising Dutton? The Melbourne lockdown sent ‘Darce’ a bit troppo.
nath says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 11:12 am
Luke Darcy is advising Dutton? The Melbourne lockdown sent ‘Darce’ a bit troppo.
中华人民共和国
Well he does have Paul Murray for balance.
VE
Oh, puhlease!
I am not telling Indigenous people anything. The majority of Indigenous people are telling all of us that they want a package starting with the Voice.
They want Makarrata.
They want a Treaty.
Let us all hope that the Greens stop fucking around with the Voice.
Lots of climate denialists surrounding #RealPeter!
The problem for the puppetmeisters is that Peter is the real Peter.
Re Sprocket @11:06.
A knave’s gallery if ever there was one. A bunch of people I for one want nowhere near the levers of power.
In a blow to the Democrat midterm hopes and hopes for the future of the USA, 538 A+ rated WashP/ABCNews poll of likely voters has the GOP up 5pts in the generic ballot. FMD. They also have Biden favourability well down on the average of polls.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-struggles-party-democrats-2024-poll/story?id=90427262
”
Steve777says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 11:07 am
The Afghanistan War was launched to go after Osama Bin Laden and the regime that was protecting him. Iraq 1.0 was fought in response to an act of aggression by Iraq against a small neighbour. Iraq 2.0 was launched on the basis of trumped up charges in an attempt to rearrange the political geography of the Middle East to a configuration more friendly to US interests. There is a difference.
”
Initially Afghanistan war can be justified to capture Bin Laden. But by the time Rudd became PM and Gillard after that, that is not the raison d’être because Bin Laden was no longer living in Afghanistan when Rudd Labor government was elected.
By that time, It has become the obsession of US Military to win that war at any cost like Putin wants to win Ukraine war at any cost and Australian Labor governments from 2007-2013 assisted in that.
And Rudd and Gillard governments still provided personnel and logistics support for Iraq war 2.
TPOF @ #1359 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 11:08 am
Which is worse in its own way.
Ven @ #1369 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 11:35 am
That’s not right. The War in Afghanistan was continued so as to prevent the return of the Taliban to power and what would result from that, namely it again becoming a safe haven for terrorists and also for the social gains to be reversed.
It’s asinine to equate the War in Afghanistan with Putin’s War on Ukraine.
C@tmomma @ #1674 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 11:08 am
Thanks. Well worth the 10 minutes. The certainty he wields is impressive. His framing is not implacable, which so many choose, it is comprehensive. Bluntly, he knows his shit and believes it too.
The problem for the US and friends in Afghanistan was that winning the war and creating a stable post-war government were very different tasks.
Didn’t I tell you nath that if it is ALP policy or if it is actioned by ALP that then it must be right thing to do because we are the good guys.
Those policies and actions can be justified by some means or other.
Boerwar at 10:49 am
Ah the words ‘investment certainty’. Not sure whether to lol or grrrr or cry. Back in the day I was sent to the various Carbon Conferences and heard just that desire expressed on high rotation by the business reps and money men there. They were all for action and Labor’s plan no problem for them , the only thing they wanted was certainty. Then along came The Mad Monk and the rest is history.
Late Riser,
I appreciated his insight into Syria as well. A topic we hear little about these days. I still have hope that Bashar Al Assad will be brought to book.
poroti
I know someone who is connected with building the largest single solar farm in the world. When you are working the margins at that scale you like to have your risks minimized… there is no such thing as certainty… but there is no doubt that there are lots of business peeps in Australia who have been hedging their bets while the Coalition fucked renewables over as a matter of ideological lunacy.
Gee, peter Dutton has a lot of big time losers in his crew:
Tony Abbott, John Howard, Alan Joyce, Jamie Briggs, Steve Ciobo, Paul Murray, Ray Hadley, Gina ‘$2/hour and a crap book of poetry’ Reinhart and the non-entity that is Michael Keenan. Wow. 😐
And nath
Do you know that according to the accusations against our Latest Victorian Cross recipient BRS that he committed war crimes and they were allegedly committed during Rudd-Gillard years and he was awarded Victoria Cross under the auspices of Gillard government.
And do you remember Abu Ghraib war crimes in Iraq war 2? If you don’t know about it then I have only one thing to say. They were disgusting to say the least.
‘Ven says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 11:35 am
”
Steve777says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 11:07 am
The Afghanistan War was launched to go after Osama Bin Laden and the regime that was protecting him. Iraq 1.0 was fought in response to an act of aggression by Iraq against a small neighbour. Iraq 2.0 was launched on the basis of trumped up charges in an attempt to rearrange the political geography of the Middle East to a configuration more friendly to US interests. There is a difference.
”
Initially Afghanistan war can be justified to capture Bin Laden. But by the time Rudd became PM and Gillard after that, that is not the raison d’être because Bin Laden was no longer living in Afghanistan when Rudd Labor government was elected.
By that time, It has become the obsession of US Military to win that war at any cost like Putin wants to win Ukraine war at any cost and Australian Labor governments from 2007-2013 assisted in that.
And Rudd and Gillard governments still provided personnel and logistics support for Iraq war 2.’
==============================================
The US military knew back in 2009 that they would never win the Afghanistan War. Howard’s formulation for a justification, ‘staying the course’, was the compleat nothingburger. No-one ever asked him what ‘the course’ was and just what was at the end of ‘the course’. To its shame, the Labor Governmentssimply adopted that formulation.
The essential problem for the governments was that there was simply no ‘peace with honour’ exit strategy.
The final choatic and shameful shambles was a direct result of all of the above.
The Victoria Cross is awarded by the monarch du jour.
I await with anticipation the first Australian muslim soldier being offered the Victoria Cross.
It is only a matter of time.
Boerwar says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 12:04 pm
I await with anticipation the first Australian muslim soldier being offered the Victoria Cross.
It is only a matter of time.
______
I’m waiting for the first Buddhist to win it.
nath @ #1699 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 12:08 pm
That will take as long as the Greens overriding all states and territories and legalising cannabis nationally.
Oh, hang on, wait on a sec …
https://twitter.com/DavidShoebridge/status/1574157020336648192?
(via the guardian live)