The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
https://apple.news/AhnKL8ScwRIORYRdY1CnARQ
Bring on a TRC.
Treaty/ reparations (send the Poms the bill).
Get serious about CtG for all those below the poverty line.
None of this critical race, some pigs are more equal than others, VTP advisory.
Have the referendum on removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag.
Cosmopolitan, multi-cultural, rather than white or black Australia isn’t New Holland or Terra Australis Incognita …
Vote NO!
Good morning all. Thank you, BK.
Sun with thin high cloud
6
still.
Excellent to see such high levels of support for the Voice.
Basically the Sky After Dark and Greens ratbags are inhabiting their habitual lunatic fringes.
…analysts are already warning that Kwarteng’s tax cuts may have to be reversed and that the Bank of England may have to do something it has not done in 25 years of independence: jack up interest rates to prop up the pound.
Interesting observations of how Russia is being squeezed in three directions
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3653962-putins-losses-in-asia-are-bigger-than-in-ukraine/
#weatheronPB
A bright gentle day,
turns to easy living.
Even the crows agree.
So hume seems to be sticking to morrisons lyne off attacking the anti curuption comition on insiders yesterday yet it was the liberals that actualy set up icac under griner to target labor now the liberals dont seem to want integrity
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:50 am
…analysts are already warning that Kwarteng’s tax cuts may have to be reversed and that the Bank of England may have to do something it has not done in 25 years of independence: jack up interest rates to prop up the pound.
”
Bank of England did not rise interest rates to shore up Pound in 25 years of its independence? That is hard to believe because it is not the first time Pound is falling against US Dollar and Euro.
Reserve bank of Australia did it quite a few times to shore up Australian dollar and if my memory serves me right even US Reserve did that.
”
Aaron newtonsays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:58 am
So hume seems to be sticking to morrisons lyne off attacking the anti curuption comition on insiders yesterday yet it was the liberals that actualy set up icac under griner to target labor now the liberals dont seem to want integrity
”
Aaron Newton
Because quite a few LNP politicians don’t have integrity
indea and china are still seem to be making excusis for putin but there argument makes little sence whiy shoud ucrane go to the negociating table when rusia started the war the aggument that they are both to bnlame lacks credability
With the curtains closing on the era of cheap money, a growing number of analysts are warning of the unnerving parallels with 1987.
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns that the savage drop in bond prices threatens to trigger disruptive credit events which will leave investors no choice but to liquidate what he calls “the world’s most crowded trades”: the US dollar, US tech stocks, and private equity.
Investors are in a world of pain as central banks curtail their experiment with ultra-low interest rates.
Hartnett points out the present market shares many of the same traits that led to the 1987 share market collapse: including a volatile and uncertain geopolitical situation, abnormal US markets far outperforming the rest of the world, and a lack of international coordination.
The only thing lacking – at least for now – is a currency crisis. Still, the British government appears determined to remedy this with its latest debt-financed tax package, which has sent the pound plunging to its lowest level since 1985.
And the Bank of Japan – which remains committed to ultra-low rates – has been forced to intervene in foreign currency markets to prop up the value of the yen for the first time in 24 years, to try to stem the currency’s continuing slide against the US dollar.
Investors have been dumping bonds as the US Federal Reserve continues to hike official interest rates to tame inflation, which is stuck near a four-decade high. (Yields rise as bond prices fall).
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/markets-have-many-traits-that-led-to-the-87-crash-20220925-p5bkrv#Echobox=1664135172-1
The pommy pound has had some bigly big ups and downs vs US$ but the trend over the decades is in.
Aaron newton @ #1295 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 8:01 am
China I can understand, they have a policy program to see themselves transcendent across the world and supporting and ultimately gobbling up Russia and its satellites is all part of the plan.
India’s positioning I find more troubling. You would have thought that, with their history of conflict and painful resolution, that they may be more sympathetic to a country that is going through an attempted colonisation by another, aggressive nation. But no, they want cheap energy to fuel their rise and are prepared to ignore the dead bodies that are fuelling it.
Can you imagine what would happen to the global economy if the Republicans get control of the Treasury again!?! It would put the UK’s latest moves to try and kick start Neo Liberal Trickle Down Economics, on steroids and in the shade.
Reports on the Voice are encouraging. This is a profoundly meaningful action that can (and will) allow all Australians to recognise our past, and not just the last 250 brutal years. The Voice is a small step in the right direction.
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 8:11 am
Aaron newton @ #1295 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 8:01 am
indea and china are still seem to be making excusis for putin but there argument makes little sence whiy shoud ucrane go to the negociating table when rusia started the war the aggument that they are both to bnlame lacks credability
China I can understand, they have a policy program to see themselves transcendent across the world and supporting and ultimately gobbling up Russia and its satellites is all part of the plan.
India’s positioning I find more troubling. You would have thought that, with their history of conflict and painful resolution, that they may be more sympathetic to a country that is going through an attempted colonisation by another, aggressive nation. But no, they want cheap energy to fuel their rise and are prepared to ignore the dead bodies that are fuelling it.
”
You condemn China and India.
Look at Europe. It appears to be bursting at seems with high inflation, cost of living pressures and far-right parties gaining across Europe.
You may be able to dismiss Orban’s Hungary but you cannot dismiss Italy. It is important member of NATO, G7 and EU. Putin is about to get an ally in G7 and NATO and Europe or Biden cannot do much about it.
What if Italy stops supporting Ukraine war effort by not supplying any arms?
Fed Labor needs to get on with treaties.
The problem of KPIs. Looking deeper, deliberate government policy is a driver. The result is less cooperative university and more competitive business.
https://johnmenadue.com/global-university-rankings-and-their-impacts-what-function-do-they-serve/
Re VCT Et3e @7:33 –
That might be easier to follow if you defined or spelt out the acronyms…
Full court press to smarten up Dutton’s image problems..
4Corners puff piece tonight, and this Exclusive! In the SmearStralian..
sprocket_, I guess it helps if you’re one of the loyal mates. That’s not a smart message.
It would be like polishing a turd trying to make the demented potato likeable.
The next J6C hearing (US date/times)
https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings
I don’t know when Summer Time switches on south of the border, but at least for those of us north of the line, the next hearing will be this coming Thursday morning, at 3am (East Coast), 1am (West Coast). I’ve read that the hearing might look at the money trail and the role of the Secret Service during the riots. But I wonder if the recent revelation of phone calls originating inside the WH and going directly to rioters during the riot will feature, in which case the money trail might get squeezed. It’s just speculation at this point. But whatever happens, it’s sure to be another absorbing and damning episode.
Why is ABC is doing a puff piece on Dutton. When he was Minister in previous government he clearly stated that ABC is dead to him because of its “left-wing” agenda.
I can understand Benson and Chambers doing puff piece on Dutton because that is what they do when it comes to LNP leaders.
As far as I can remember ABC never did puff piece on Shorten and Albanese.
UK Cartoons:
Nicola Jennings on Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation drive #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #PutinWarCriminal
Patrick Blower on #LabourParty conference
Guy Venables on #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️
‘I’m sorry, Sir. We’re completely sold out. There are so many parties going on… Bankers, frackers, big energy companies.’ #CostOfLivingCrisis #Budget #TaxCuts #FatCats
Morten Morland on #KwasiKwarteng #Budget #TaxCuts #FatCats #CostOfLivingCrisis #ToryCostOfGreedCrisis
sprocket
“Real Julia” or “Real Peter”. Both labels equally deserving of support. So will they be treated the same?
On the good enews front, regardless of debates over climate change targets, the real issue is action. So here are to good ones, that will reduce Australian emissions, and assist another country to do the same.
In Qld a huge wind farm:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-26/qld-clean-energy-target-new-south-burnett-wind-farm/101472494
And a deal for Australia – Singapore green energy sharing. This will lead to a huge project in WA. So good we could cancel the gas one…
“https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-26/singapore-to-sign-green-economy-agreement-with-australia/101472834
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-26/qld-clean-energy-target-new-south-burnett-wind-farm/101472494
Re support for the Voice (linked by BK): https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-the-voice-but-there-s-doubt-over-what-they-re-backing-20220923-p5bklx.html
” The first survey on the wording the prime minister put to Indigenous leaders in July shows support for the hard-fought change is strong enough to secure most voters in most states in a referendum to amend the constitution.
But the exclusive survey also highlights a weakness in the argument for change because many voters are unsure about the practical benefits of the Voice and have relatively soft views in favour or against, raising the prospect of a sharp change if the “yes” case does not have bipartisan support.”
A bit like the Republic in the 1990s.
Note also that the 64:36 split is after “forced choice”. The original responses were 53-29-19 yes-no-unsure.
A Referendum would be very vulnerable to a scare campaign. As well as campaigning of the need for the Voice and its benefits, the Government will need to anticipate scare campaigns and have a counter-strategy ready.
One of the things that annoys me about the MSM is articles like this, which is always reported from the WASP UK perspective. I thought the MSM would be doing the Australian public a better service by investigating how the “Confederate States” have taken over US politics and how Australian Conservative politics on everything else bar the British bootstrap stuff on the monarchy and the flag has taken on Dixie Dem/Southern GOP policies and tactics aided by Murdoch.
If you want a sign of the entitlement culture and everything that is wrong with the Australian MSM Libtika Borke is your go to.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/flags-and-anthems-at-the-ready-starmer-rides-wave-of-support-for-the-monarchy-20220926-p5bkxg.html
Labor’s core climate change policy is political rather than practical …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2022/sep/26/the-safeguard-mechanism-australias-emissions-trading-scheme-in-all-but-name
Instead of an ETS or EIS which pretty much everyone agrees would be the cheapest and most effective means of actually reducing emissions, Labor decided to adopt a deliberately obfuscated, dysfunctional and discredited Abbott policy instead.
Good luck with that.
Oh noes, dastardly Labor will take a policy and make it work, how dares they!
Boerwar says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 7:37 am
Excellent to see such high levels of support for the Voice.
Basically the Sky After Dark and Greens ratbags are inhabiting their habitual lunatic fringes.
中华人民共和国
Throughout history the extreme left and and extreme right tend to coalesce to same postiton. Many times brutal represssion is the end result.
Often it’s a different journey for the left and right to get there but as you point put BW, The Greens, Sky after Dark plus One Nation and the now Right Dominated Liberal Party have split from “mainstream” Australia in their opposition to the Voice.
If the Greens oppose the Voice they deserve to go the same way as The Australian Democrats who sided with the devil on the GST.
It would seem the majority of Green voters support the voice. Out of sync with your base is not a good position to be in.
Ven @ #1300 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 8:35 am
To take your assertions one by one.
* High inflation. My observation is that the Europeans, in the main, are prepared to accept it as the cost of squeezing Russia’s economy as a way of bringing Putin either to his knees or to the negotiating table.
* Cost of Living pressures. Informed citizens are aware that if they want to end the war that Putin is waging against Ukraine then they must pay a price. There’s a lot of accumulated wealth in the world and in 1st World countries and so long as those on the lowest rungs are supported then CoL pressures can be withstood to achieve the desired goal of breaking Russia’s economic blackmail of the West.
* Italy. The EU have demonstrated that they have ways and the means to punish EU member states who get too close to Putin. They won’t be afraid to use those tools against Meloni should she stray too close to the Mass Murderer of Moscow.
I remember reading a book about Italy after WW2 and it was so poor that there was mass starvation and homelessness and it seems that only since it was enveloped within the Common Market and then the EU has it prospered. Italy won’t be given carte blanche. Anyway, let’s see, now that Meloni has achieved her aim, what she actually does.
As far as Italy deciding to not send arms to Ukraine any more, well the world has ways of sending a message to Italy if they do. No more Italian produce in my shopping trolley, for a start.
frednk @ #1316 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 9:42 am
I bet that was the first article Adam Bandt read this morning. He’s got to pull Lidia Thorpe into line with his voters, or watch them go elsewhere.
davo @ #1630 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 9:37 am
Why adopt a policy that was deliberately designed to fail unless … oh, wait …
@frednk – policy is not binary.
This Greens voters supports purely symbolic action over nothing, but supports meaningful action over purely symbolic action. I don’t think I’m that much of an outlier in terms of Greens voter views.
If it comes to referendum, I’ll vote for it. If polled, I will state that I will support it. That doesn’t make it the best policy.
The Greens are defined by their hatred of Labor. It conditions everything they see, say and do. They are alt-reactionary: Libs in fancy dress.
It’ great that suddenly Labor want to do something for indigenous Australians after backing Howard’s scrapping of ATSIC. But nothing will make up for that.
Something much better than ATSIC ever was WILL make up for it.
The situation is that the Greens are way out of step with majority Indigenous opinion. Further Bwana Bandt has taken to speaking publicly on behalf of Indigenous people with respect to racism. That is legitimately the task of the Voice. The current official policy of the Greens on the Voice is that it is ‘…a complete waste of money…’
There is a final structural problem for the Greens. They are never wrong.
Put all those facts together and you have a political freak show.
Only a Greens would diss the Voice as being ‘symbolic’. NFI.
Of course the Greens will support the Voice when the time comes. They are staking their claims for further action, while Price is concerned that Labor is just using the issue as a giant photo opportunity:
“Senator Price is against the Voice because she feels Mr Albanese is just ‘virtue-signalling’ and merely wants his own ‘Whitlam moment’ like other Labor Prime Ministers.”
I think that’s a bit harsh, but I can understand the cynicism around it all. After all, there are plenty of people who would back Labor’s support for the scrapping of ATSIC one year, and then back Labor’s support for the Voice another year. As long as it’s the Labor agenda, regardless of the actual policy. And by ‘people’ I mean stooges.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 10:12 am
Something much better than ATSIC ever was WILL make up for it.
_____________
What has been proposed is nothing near the breadth and depth of ATSIC. Apart from the constitutional aspect, which can easily be worked around by a cunning Liberal government. Very easy to do.
Only a Greens would try to wreck the Voice and then vote FOR the Voice.
NFI.
@Boerwar
I think the Voice is a bad idea for the same reason I thought the marriage equality plebiscite was a bad idea.
Indigenous people should not be given the right to a Voice to Parliament by the vote of a (almost entirely) white parliament, followed by a referendum of a (primarily) white voter base.
Similarly, marriage equality should have occurred because the state has no right to discriminate, not because people voted that the state shouldn’t discriminate.
Always was, always will be Aboriginal land.
They shouldn’t have to come begging us for a Voice to our Parliament. We should be required to seek a Treaty, asking for the right to establish a Parliament.
It is purely symbolism, for white people to create an indigenous voice to parliament, and then proceed to ignore 100% of the things it recommends and parliament just do what it was already planning to do.
nath @ #1327 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 10:16 am
You love thinking in binaries, nath. How about this for a thought? ATSIC was then, and now is the time to make up for it? You may say that nothing will ever be as good as it was but it’s never coming back. So the choice then becomes, do you support what is being proposed now or not? If not, then shame on you because your No vote will leave Indigenous Australia with nothing. All because you have a bee in your bonnet about ATSIC.
Also, I’d love to see your proof that Constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians ‘can easily be worked around by a cunning Liberal government. Very easy to do.’
You know, instead of just a snappy one-liner. How about some meat on the bones? Prove it.
C@tmomma says:
Also, I’d love to see your proof that Constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians ‘can easily be worked around by a cunning Liberal government. Very easy to do.’
You know, instead of just a snappy one-liner. How about some meat on the bones? Prove it.
______________
Well. I will vote for the Voice, and I believe so will the Greens.
As for the Liberals, they can easily neuter it.
A Howard level operator will change it from being elected to appointed.
He will then appoint a small group of indigenous Australians like Senator Price who share the Liberal viewpoint.
Politics 101.
A Howard-like operator, will not be a dictator, so he will have to get the changes that you purport he will make, through the parliament and that includes the Senate. I can’t see The Greens, David Pocock, the JLN or Labor voting for it. Not to mention that such a change would have to likely be approved by the Indigenous governing body itself and I can’t see RW Indigenous Australia having a controlling influence there.
Voice Endeavour @ #1645 Monday, September 26th, 2022 – 10:21 am
They didn’t have to, they chose to. To ignore that and tell them that they can’t and shouldn’t get what they’ve said they want, because what they want is wrong (“and let me explain why, so that you know just how wrong your thoughts and desires are”), is just more condescending, imperialistic nonsense.
Perhaps they’re begging for a Voice because people who think they know better keep not listening and talking over them with unhelpful suggestions of what they should do instead.
Fair enough. There’s absolutely nothing that says we can’t do both things together. For all we know the first thing a Voice would tell Parliament is “you need a Treaty to be here, so get started drafting one”.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, September 26, 2022 at 10:32 am
A Howard-like operator, will not be a dictator, so he will have to get the changes that you purport he will make, through the parliament and that includes the Senate. I can’t see The Greens, David Pocock, the JLN or Labor voting for it. Not to mention that such a change would have to likely be approved by there Indigenous governing body itself and I can’t see RW Indigenous Australia having a controlling influence there.
________________
Of course it would necessitate a different Senate composition. But that’s entirely possible. The Voice cannot stop legislation from amending it’s structure or composition. The constitutional protection is that there must be a Voice. It’s up to Parliament how it is composed.