Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

One item of federal polling news plus confusion over the status of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

I don’t have a huge amount of material off which to hang the new open thread that is now past due, partly because a certain event has crowded other matters out of the media, but mostly because of a threadbare schedule of post-election opinion polling in which this is an off week. All we have on that score is the soon-to-be-superseded Roy Morgan weekly update, which tells us only that its latest voting intention poll comes in at 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor, out from 52-48. This is at the high end of how the Albanese government has been doing from this particular series since it came to office, which has been substantially softer for it than the two results we’ve had from Newspoll and the one from Resolve Strategic.

The only other item of electoral news to relate is the confusing news of the United Australia Party’s self-deregistration. This came as a surprise to the party’s sole Senator, Ralph Babet, with Clive Palmer seemingly unclear as to whether the decision was made on his own initiative or that of the party’s supposedly independent executive committee. Palmer, who if Forbes is to be believed is worth $2.1 billion, told Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail that he wished to spare himself the barely existent expense of maintaining registration, and would re-register the party shortly before the next election, despite not planning to run himself.

However, electoral law maven Graeme Orr told the Age/Herald that he might be in for a disappointment on this score, as the electoral laws appear to leave the United Australia Party name off limits to him and anyone else for the remainder of the parliamentary term. Babet will continue to be identified as a Senator for the party for parliamentary purposes, which do not relate to the Australian Electoral Commission’s party registration process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 5 of 31
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  1. Scott says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 1:47 pm

    Lol Taylormade
    中华人民共和国
    Bugger you beat me cobber. Take your eye off the ball for 10 minutes and that’s the result. PB is a fast moving dynamic orgamism.

  2. Did too many kilometres in Victoria over the last few months. The Alpine highway is a disaster, not surprising considering the massive increase in visitors but the c roads between Geelong and Ararat were amazingly good.

  3. Rex
    So, I’m reading reports that Albanese has broken his election promise to ‘deliver’ a FICAC by Christmas.
    —————————
    Albo has good grounds to be a few weeks late.

  4. Yesterday’s tour de Scotland was a sight.

    It really is a spectacular country with wonderful people in their regions. Elizabeth had good sense spending time in the highlands.

    If I had to live elsewhere, that’s where I’d be.

  5. The late winter rains have damaged Victoria’s roads no doubt.

    They’ll be patched up soon, as usual like they’ve always been.

  6. Queensland has a road network that would stretch from Brisbane to London and back (if it could float and stretch). When I dwelt in those sunny climes we would often get a giggle when Victorians made their winter pilgrimage Upnorth and whinged about our roads – you see it’s easy to have a decent road network when your State is the size of a Postage Stamp.

    Chronic underfunding of the Bruce “Holeway” (Federally Funded National Network) by successive Tory Governments made The Bruce very dangerous and well a “Holeway”. Famously Campbell Newman reaveled he had never driven the Bruce Highway.

    Albo, to his credit, when he was Infrastructure Minister, recognised this and for the first time in many years, significant Federal funds were directed to the Bruce, especially the very dangerous Curra to Cooroy section as well as flood works and overtaking lanes all the way to Cairns.

    So for Taylormade to yabba on (apologies Mr Yabba) about a couple of potholes in Victoria really makes me laugh. LOL Taylormade.

  7. Hearing from grey nomads returning to Vic from the northern states that roads are damaged all the way up. ‘The Newell was terrible’ apparently.


  8. porotisays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 1:29 pm
    Vwn

    Australia will stop selling fossil fuels only when other countries stop asking using them

    Ah yes, the cry of ‘drug dealers’ everywhere .

    poroti
    Fossil fuels are like drugs using which we will die but we are so addicted to them that without which we will die.

    We will need a lot of Will Power to stop using them but the withdrawal symptoms will be unbearable for many of the people. Ask people of USA. Almost every thing is run on them.


  9. Upnorthsays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 2:05 pm
    Scott says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 1:47 pm

    Lol Taylormade
    中华人民共和国
    Bugger you beat me cobber. Take your eye off the ball for 10 minutes and that’s the result. PB is a fast moving dynamic orgamism.

    Chortling Upnorth! 🙂

  10. Ven @ #212 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 2:34 pm


    porotisays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 1:29 pm
    Vwn

    Australia will stop selling fossil fuels only when other countries stop asking using them

    Ah yes, the cry of ‘drug dealers’ everywhere .

    poroti
    Fossil fuels are like drugs using which we will die but we are so addicted to them that without which we will die.

    We’re as good at profiting from deadly fossil fuel exports as the NRA is at profiting from selling deadly guns.

    blah blah it’s all about demand blah blah

  11. PB’ers there could well be False Flag Russian actors here. Be careful. If we stop mining in Australia it will help sustain the Russians in their war efforts. Energy and raw materials are desperately needed by the forces of freedom. Resupply is a now a major issue.

    “It may appear at times that the U.S. can call on a bottomless pit of military stores to supply Ukraine. Increasingly, however, western allies are balking at taking any more equipment out of their inventories to support the eastern European country’s war against Russia.

    It’s an untidy, uncomfortable aspect of alliance politics that was acknowledged publicly on Friday by the secretary general of NATO.

    “Some allies are now raising the issue of whether these stocks are depleted too much,” Jens Stoltenberg said after his meeting in Brussels with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. (He did not name the allies in question.)

    Germany has been particularly vocal about the impact the war in Ukraine has had on its military stores. The country’s defence minister, Christine Lambrecht, has been quoted on several occasions over the last two months saying that the Bundeswehr’s weapons reserve is getting low and “clearly at this point … we have reached our limit.”

    Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand made a similar point last spring and acknowledged the dilemma again this summer during an interview with CBC Radio’s The House.

    “It is not sufficient for us to continue to draw down on the supplies of the Canadian Armed Forces,” Anand said on Aug. 5.”

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-nato-weapons-zelenskyy-russia-1.6578148

  12. blah blah it’s all about demand blah blah

    Why would a corporation spend millions\billions expanding a coal mine if they didn’t expect their to be demand?
    We still have a situation where their is expectation that coal will be burn for a very long time. China and India are showing no sign of slowing down on that front.

  13. Give Taylormade the benefit.
    When he saw sign for Portland he may have confusedly read ‘pothole’land.
    Not to mention looking down rabbit burrows at same time.

  14. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 2:45 pm

    Although we’re pretty good at profiting from weapons as well…
    中华人民共和国
    Rex I take it that you don’t think the West should aid Ukraine in its’ hour of need? My understanding is much of the weaponry has been donated.

  15. Player One says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 2:48 pm

    Upnorth @ #217 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 2:44 pm

    PB’ers there could well be False Flag Russian actors here. Be careful. If we stop mining in Australia it will help sustain the Russians in their war efforts.

    Just unbelievable. Or is the c@t is finally out of the bag?
    中华人民共和国
    P1 – hint – you ain’t supposed to out yourself comrade.

  16. From the Guardian blog –
    “A spokesperson for Dreyfus said on Monday: “The Attorney General has checked with his financial advisor, and his financial advisor has confirmed that he is fully in compliance with the code of conduct”.

    It is understood that Dreyfus owns no shares directly, and his self-managed super fund – Dreyfus Superannuation fund – is run by a financial adviser that invests in 17 different managed funds, which includes Greencape. Greencape in turn invests in “25 to 70 high quality stocks” which includes Omni Bridgeway.”

  17. “Honest Injun!” Apparently being racist to Native Americans is fine to some people. No wonder they vote for a party that wants to destroy the Voice.

  18. Is there a rule preventing a mining minster owning mining shares, no matter how indirectly?

    The AG’S self-managed super fund does better if the class action litigation funders like Omni Bridgeway operate in a market with less regulation and that regulation is a Federal matter and, as it applies to Federal courts, an AG matter.

  19. Page Boi (and Taylormade & Alpha Zero)

    “It actually gets to the heart of why the nationals pork barreling is so irresponsible – state and federal nats will turn up o turn the first sod or cut the ribbon on some piece of infrastructure that they’ve provided a grant for, but there’s generally no recurrent funding allocated with the grant for ongoing maintenance of whatever the asset is, which increases the long term maintenance burden on councils and ultimately leads to increased rates for locals”

    Yes! I urge non-fascist bludgers not to get sucked into complaints from defenders of the former ruling kleptocracy about the condition of rural roads.

    Traditionally the Commonwealth was responsible for BOTH capital and maintenance costs of national highways. From the Howard era onwards the Commonwealth has been trying to push back some of the financial responsibility onto States. So we have seen 80/20 and even 50/50 funding deals for capital cost, and reduced maintenance funding.

    Abbott promised to be an “infrastructure Prime Minister” but like most of his promises, failed to keep it. More was promised on project funding as population growth boomed on high immigration, but total funding did not go up to match, so maintenance funding per road km fell in real terms.

    By 2017 Australia was the highest % GDP investor in new roads in the OECD, but the lowest % GDP spender on road maintenance. The bulk of road funding comes from the Commonwealth.

    Resource rich states like WA can subsidise road maintenance, but the other States don’t have the spare cash.

    So all those rural road potholes complained about by some, have built up from maintenance backlogs accumulated over the past 10 years. Combine that with a huge amount of trucking activity during covid as supply chains were changed, and we now have a large road condition deficit.

    So yes, kick every Federal transport minister for the last ten years. When Barnaby Joyce pumps ten billion dollars into a rail line from Boondoggle to Rortsville, every motorist winds up paying for it.

  20. I reckon we should make it mandatory for PB’ers to declare their financial interests.

    I expect it would be extremely enlightening.

  21. Reading a second time.

    But in this case, the US government is bypassing the usual regulations governing such transactions by accepting that there is no guarantee that any of the equipment will actually be returned or paid for after the end of the conflict.

  22. ‘We ask you to relieve yourself of your post’: Kremlin officials are turning against Vladimir Putin

    Halfway through his invasion of Ukraine’s sixth bloody month, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Moscow is imploding as scores of Kremlin officials are calling upon the 69-year-old autocrat to quit.

    Putin had anticipated his February 24th “special military operation” to be a cakewalk through the Russian-controlled East into the Ukrainian capitol of Kyiv. But with the aid of a Western coalition led by the United States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s unshatterable resistance campaign has decimated Putin’s combat forces and depleted his military’s offensive capabilities.

    In an open letter to Putin, deputies from Moscow’s Lomonosovsky district recalled that Putin’s leadership began with “good reforms” but that as time marched onward, “everything went wrong.”

    ” Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we are once again threatening the whole world with nuclear weapons,” the officials wrote. “We ask you to relieve yourself of your post due to the fact that your views and your governance model are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and its human potential.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/putin-revolt/

  23. The best thing would be for ministers to put all their holdings into a blind trust.
    Politicians should also be limited to a single property. If they don’t want to divest then they need not apply.


  24. Upnorth says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 2:23 pm
    ….
    So for Taylormade to yabba on (apologies Mr Yabba) about a couple of potholes in Victoria really makes me laugh. LOL Taylormade.

    When doing door knocks for federal politics, pot holes was the big issue. A clear indication voters did not understand the roles of shires, state, and federal governments.

    Andrews has found something that trumps potholes. Railway crossings.

    And what do we get from the Liberals, The Age , the Herald/Sun and the ABC. A campaign against railway crossing removal.

    Talk about not being able to read the room.

  25. Player One says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:16 pm

    I reckon we should make it mandatory for PB’ers to declare their financial interests.

    I expect it would be extremely enlightening.
    中华人民共和国
    Who is “we” comrade? Vlad and your good self?

  26. frednk says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:37 pm

    Upnorth says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 2:23 pm
    ….
    So for Taylormade to yabba on (apologies Mr Yabba) about a couple of potholes in Victoria really makes me laugh. LOL Taylormade.

    When doing door knocks for federal politics, pot holes was the big issue. A clear indication voters did not understand the roles of shires, state, and federal governments.

    Andrews has found something that trumps potholes. Railway crossings.

    And what do we get from the Liberals, The Age , the Herald/Sun and the ABC. A campaign against railway crossing removal.

    Talk about not being able to read the room.
    中华人民共和国
    Railway Crossings are super important and most punters will know. Not only hold ups (usually during peak) in traffic but also downright dangerous.

    One of the keys to better and safer roads is to get more freight on rail. To do that means a better rail network minus level crossings (and no not wasting money on inland rail BS). IMHO.

  27. On his Telegram, Kremlin chief propagandist, Soloviev, called for the execution of Russian commanders who allowed the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region.

    Command of Russia’s Western Military District dismissed after series of mass defeats.

    More Russians call their defence minister Shoigu a “churka from Tuva” (churka is a collective ethnic slur primarily for Asian minorities)

  28. “I reckon we should make it mandatory for PB’ers to declare their financial interests.

    I expect it would be extremely enlightening.”

    You first, P1

  29. “I reckon we should make it mandatory for PB’ers to declare their financial interests.

    I expect it would be extremely enlightening.”

    You first, P1

  30. Boerwar says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:58 pm
    Sack Nicholas! Bring back Stalin!
    中华人民共和国
    He might be a bit stiff at first. Like a fast bowler coming back from injury

  31. Thanks BK and please keep up the great work on the royal-free Dawn Patrol.

    “ Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil has rightly recognised the shortcomings of the $1bn-a-year “golden ticket” visa scheme, which is set to be scrapped over the coming year. The national interest demands no less, says the editorial in The Australian.”

    Another appropriate move by Labor imho. It did nothing for skills and only added to housing price increases. This seems like a change of opinion from The Oz.

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