8.16pm. With all the booths now in, and 4539 pre-polls besides, that’s it for the evening. Labor did markedly better on both pre-polls and postals, which increased in number by a third, than election day votes, which were down 13%. Their candidate — whose name, I should observe, is Luke Edmunds — ends the night on 39.5%, with Liberal candidate Gregory Brown on 28.8% and Deborah Brewer of the Greens on 18.7%. I would imagine that Labor’s winning margin after preferences would be pushing 10%, little changed from 8.65% in 2019.
7.30pm. Howrah booth brings the swing against Labor inside 7% and the Greens vote down to 19.3%. This has been by some distance the biggest booth, with 2616 formal votes to Lindisfarne Village’s 1251.
7.27pm. There are also 1447 postals in and they have been strong for Labor, such that I’ve now got their swing down to 7.4% and their projected total to 37.8% with the Liberals on 27.8%. As I suspected, these votes have drawn the Greens back to 21.2%.
7.23pm. Bellerive booth in. Swing against Labor now up to 9.2%, but that’s matched by a continuing rise in the Greens vote, now at 23.3%. Preferences will presumably prevent the Greens finishing second, as they will be from Shooters and an independent with a background in the Liberal Party.
7.15pm. Lindisfarne Village also fails to change the situation, except to note that the Greens vote has crept up to 22.9%. It will probably come down a bit on postals though.
7.10pm. Geilston Bay makes four booths out of ten. I now have the primary vote swing against Labor up to 8.4%, which doesn’t fundamentally change the situation.
6.56pm. The Montagu Bay and Mornington booths are in, making for three out of a total of ten, and I now make it a 1.4% primary vote swing to the Liberals with Labor down 6.6%. The Greens are still riding high on 21.7%, and I’m projecting primary vote totals of 38.6% for Labor and 26.7% for Liberal. That suggests a pretty comfortable win for Labor with a similar margin to last time, regardless of what might happen with the preferences from Shooters and the independent, who are on 3.4% and 9.8% respectively.
6.44pm. The first booth in is Tranmere, and the raw numbers suggest a fairly close race that Labor would be well placed to win on Greens preferences, although it’s still far too early to say. The outstanding fact of the result is that the Greens are on 20.0% with 106 votes out of 529. Labor is duly down 7.3% on its 2019 result, when there was no Greens candidate, while the Liberals are up 5.5%, which is reflected in a lower independent vote — conservative independent Tony Mulder polled 22.8% at this booth in his comeback attempt in 2019, whereas the only independent at this election, Hans Willink, is on 11.9%. However, there are only 529 votes for the booth this time compared with 2063 last time, so it’s probably in a different location and not entirely amenable to swings based on booth-matching.
6pm. Polls have closed; results from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will be published here. This being an urban electorate with fairly large booths, I would not expect the count to be particularly swift, but there may be at least one booth result along in 30 to 45 minutes or so.
5pm. A by-election is being held today to fill a vacancy in Tasmania’s 15-member Legislative Council for the seat of Pembroke, which covers the eastern shore of Hobart’s Derwent river directly opposite the city centre, from Lindisfarne south through Bellerive to Tranmere. This follows the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, who defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the seat’s last periodic election in 2019. Unlike a lot of elections for Legislative Council seats, this is a fully partisan contest involving Labor, the Liberals and the Greens, together with Shooters Fishers and Farmers and one independent. Polls will close as always at 6pm local time, followed here by live coverage of the count.
Yay! 🙂
Any information on prepoll and postal proportions?
Howrah is the biggest booth yet (over double the size of any other), and only 14% for the Greens so that’s taken a bit of paint off their vote. 19.3% is still decent enough though.
What have The Greens done to deserve people’s votes?
Tranmere was a weird one early in the night, what happened was the Tranmere booth was moved to a church that’s on the outskirts of Howrah and also somewhat out of the way on a side-road to nowhere, so basically nobody much voted there and the Tranmerians (who lean Liberal) mostly decamped to Howrah booth instead (making that one of the Liberals’ better booths.) And yes I also think this is going to end up something like 60-40, maybe 61-39 (heard secondhand that ALP scrutineers say they’re getting 86% from the Greens). Labor will be very pleased with this.
Have seen an ALP source (presumably scrutineering informed) suggest even 63-37. We’ll see.
Rough sums gr to alp 14 to 15.5&%
Sff to alp o.5 to 1% alp
Ind 5 to 6 % to alp
Lower alp 59.5%
Higher just over 62%
This coincides with figures from other posts here..l a slight swing to labor
C@T
The Greens get votes in part to send Labor (preferenced by 86% here)a message – you have my support, but not at the expense of the climate, any unnecessary delay in transition(also, more local environmental concerns). There are still strands in the ALP invested, eg, in fossil fuels.
There is also a message for the Greens, that the ALP is recognised as a competent implementer, and the Greens should as a general rule negotiate and amend but not block .
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WB:
7.30pm. Howrah booth brings the swing against Labor inside 7% and the Greens vote down to 19.3%. This has been by some distance the biggest booth, with 2616 formal votes to Lindisfarne Village’s 1251.
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Trivia:
There is a district called Howrah adjacent to Calculate, India, seperated by Hoogly River and Howrah bridge.
Grew up in Howrah, not the one in India. Very conservative area.
Labor scrutineers were on the ball; it’s 63.26% 2PP to ALP (pending remaining postals which will do very little). That’s a 4.61% swing to Labor in a by-election for their own vacancy, a very strong result despite attempts from some Liberals to spin some nonsense about the primary votes.
KB: despite attempts from some Liberals to spin some nonsense about the primary votes.
Me: Thanks for calling out the some Liberals nonsense.