Essential Research continues its fortnightly polling series minus voting intention or numbers for Peter Dutton when it conducts its monthly leadership ratings, as it has done in the current poll. These record Anthony Albanese returning to his post-election peak on approval at 59%, up four, with disapproval down three to 25%. A monthly question on whether Australia is headed in the right direction is likewise back to where it was in the post-election result with a five point gain to 48%, with a two-point drop in wrong direction to 29%.
Further questions cover the Scott Morrison ministries saga, which find 51% believe the former Prime Minister should resign from parliament compared with 25% who disagree; 59% agree that the reputation of his government has been diminished, with 19% disagreeing; and 59% believe he should appear at the inquiry into the matter, with 18% disagreeing. Support for a federal integrity commission is at 76%, down two from October last year, with opposition up four to 15%. Further questions cover the powers such an institution should have, trust in health authorities, police, the justice system and federal parliament and the salience of state politics issues, and can be found in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1070.
Further:
• The tracking poll of international leaders’ personal ratings conducted by US firm Morning Consult continues to record no significant change for Anthony Albanese, who ended August on 58% approval and 28% disapproval, both up one on the end of July. The numbers from this series combine results of polling conducted over seven days from a sample of around 1000.
• In a report on kickboxer-turned-misogynist internet celebrity Andrew Tate, Benjamin Clark of Crikey highlights data from the Australian Cooperative Election Study showing that while younger women are more likely than older women to agree that more needs to be done to achieve gender equality (76.5% among those aged 18 to 34 compared with 58.4% among those 65 and over), the opposite is true of men (30.1% among the youngest cohort rising to 40.4% among the oldest). The 18-to-34 cohort was also the only one in which a significant gender distinction was observed on what I take to be the two-party preferred vote, with 67.5% of young women favouring Labor compared with 60.3% for men. Also featured is Gallup data from the United States showing young women have become markedly more likely to identify as liberal over the past decade (from 30% to nearly 45%) whereas the rate for men has remained steady at around 25%.
• An international survey by US concern Pew Research on “global threats and international co-operation” found Australia with the second biggest gap out of 14 countries between those on the political left and right with respect to the threat posed by climate change, respectively identified as a major threat by 91% and 47%. Far ahead of the rest in this respect was the United States, where only 22% of those on the right rated climate change a major threat compared with 85% on the left.
• The final score from the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay was 1844 (52.6%) for Labor candidate Brent Potter and 1662 (47.4%) for Country Liberals candidate Ben Hosking, a swing against Labor of 7.0%. Next cabs off the by-election rank are the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on Saturday, which is being contested by both Labor and Liberal, and the Western Australian seat of North West Central next week, to be contested by the Nationals and the Liberals with Labor sitting it out.
• I’ll be conducting an online seminar as part of the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy’s Curtin Corner series from 6pm on Friday eastern standard time, specifically exploring the issue of where all the major party voters are going/have gone. You can register for live participation here, and a video will be posted after the event.
Upnorth says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:46 pm
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:37 pm
Oopnorth (we’re all a little Scottish tonight )
Yes, cursive writing is running writing.
中华人民共和国
Thank you wee bonny lass. Actually I just tried running writing to show my daugther. She wasn’t impressed
The trouble with modern cursive script is they keep screwing up the letters so they don’t join properly.
When I went through in the 60’s you had to use the older f and t to get it to run properly.
Now it is f t g j q y that need a little work, still don’t like the 60s b, which I note they have retained. There is no reason not to form the circle properly.
I have never understood why they changed the letters so they don’t run properly. One of he mysteries of life.
I had no interest in the Queen when she was alive.*
That hasn’t changed now that she is dead.
That is all.
*I did see the Queen in Geraldton in 1964, I was seven years old, my interest waned thereafter.
“First referendum (a year after re-election), Everything stays the same and the Governor General becomes the official Head of State, and the Prime Minister chooses them as what happens now”
You can’t just ignore the reserve powers, apparently the GG can remove a progressive PM with the full confidence of the house but can’t lift a finger to stop a conservative PM subverting democracy, ‘more of the same’ isn’t an acceptable option, I’m a republican but I wouldn’t vote for it.
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 9:47 pm
“First referendum (a year after re-election), Everything stays the same and the Governor General becomes the official Head of State, and the Prime Minister chooses them as what happens now”
You can’t just ignore the reserve powers, apparently the GG can remove a progressive PM with the full confidence of the house but can’t lift a finger to stop a conservative PM subverting democracy, ‘more of the same’ isn’t an acceptable option, I’m a republican but I wouldn’t vote for it.
中华人民共和国
What about my rotating Cricket Captain option with the “reserve powers” removed?
“What about my rotating Cricket Captain option with the “reserve powers” removed?”
I’d definitely vote for that as a step away from this childish ridiculous monarchy stuff.
Taylormade @ #1439 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 9:29 pm
Thier, thier, SUKKAR
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 10:00 pm
“What about my rotating Cricket Captain option with the “reserve powers” removed?”
I’d definitely vote for that as a step away from this childish ridiculous monarchy stuff.
中华人民共和国
Yes! Thanks cobber.
yabba says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 10:01 pm
Taylormade @ #1439 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 9:29 pm
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:59 pm
Has Newspoll been suspened for the Mourning?
_____________________
I hope your daughter is a better speller than you.
Thier, thier, SUKKAR
中华人民共和国
Your norty Mr Yabba
@socrates:
I saw a YouTube video last week that speculated that the UK may acquire 4-6 Type 212s from ThyssenKrupp for ‘local work’ so that the Astutes could be freed up for more global reach, possibly in conjunction with Queen Elisabeth carrier battle groups. Perhaps for joint AUKUS operations, based on the east cost of Australia, along with a virginia class US SSN until we have own own fleet.
I have long thought it unwise for the three western nuclear submarine countries – America, UK and France to have wholly abandoned SSKs. Particularly the UK, as there would be a lot of bang for buck in SSKs patrolling the British Iles, North Sea and the Baltic.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1848 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 9:38 pm
I thought Lukashenko had gone strangely quiet. 😐
The work that is being done by unions in the UK is just breathtakingly brilliant:
https://youtu.be/wm5kGaFMhJ0
frednk @ #1850 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 9:43 pm
Let’s not start on different styles of letters taught in different states! 😆
Oopnorth,
I am no bonny lassie, more like lumpy porridge these days (maintaining the Scottish theme). 😀
Snappy Tom at 8.55 pm and Socrates at 9.27 pm
I was disputing the myth of nuclear coercion. You (Snappy) gave no examples of it. The reason is that, if you examine the historical record carefully, there are none.
It started with James Byrnes, Truman’s Secretary of State. He thought the atom bomb would be a “winning weapon”, with which the US could coerce Stalin to give up control of much of eastern Europe. His belief was fanciful rubbish.
The mythology is sufficient to explain enormous waste of financial and other resources on weapons that, militarily speaking, are useless. MacArthur wanted to use nuclear weapons in Korea and Vietnam. Fortunately he was not the ultimate decision-maker.
The Trident case is revealing. There is no strategic sense in the UK retaining nuclear weapons but it is hard to get a rational argument about this in the UK because of what, technically speaking, might be called path dependency, i.e. institutionalised pressure to continue with a mistaken policy, lest the idiocy of past policy be exposed. Clearly the UK possession of nuclear weapons did not stop the Argentinian generals in 1982.
One reason why Scottish Independence is interesting is that the home base of Trident (and its successor) is near Glasgow. If Scotland becomes independent it would be very costly to move that base to England.
It was not Putin’s threats about nuclear weapons that halted the transfer of the planes. Rather, it was a realistic US concern about any, even small, steps to escalating the war.
The most dangerous nuclear stand-off is in South Asia. Possession of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan has not stopped border skirmishes between them. Neither state has learnt, or adequately studied, the lessons of the Cold War, particularly the terribly lucky way in which the world escaped destruction during the Cuban missile crisis.
The 1994 Budapest Memorandum needed a new context of European security in order for it to become a meaningful constraint on Russian behaviour. However, Ukraine has the initiative now in Putin’s war, despite sensibly not possessing nuclear weapons.
“Absolutely crazy; over ten Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles abandoned in Kharkiv. The oak leaves emblem of the supposedly elite 4th Guards “Kantemirovskaya” Tank Division can be seen on the turret of an abandoned T-80U..”
I am thinking that a lot of this comes down to the Ukrainian troopers knowing exactly WHY they are there and at risk. Back when the Russians withdrew from around Kyiv there was much reported as to the Russian soldiers being very confused and in some ways embarrassed for being there.
There has been quite a lot in ISW about the Russians efforts to regenerate forces WITHOUT going for the full mobilization that its thought would be very damaging for Putin. Seems to me that they are offering $ to poor people to be barely trained and very poorly equipped cannon fodder who are treated like shit but expected to die in place regardless??
Takeaway from this whole thing is that even now, war is not all about boy toys and expensive tech. Some of the fundamentals, particularly in a peer / near peer conflict are still firmly about people and their head-space.
Yee Hah!
Just thought I’d throw that in.
Big evening on the blog, Upnorth on fire.
Most posters being reasonably civil.
Just thought of throwing this in as well, my second cousin battling cancer has had to give up his heavy labour employment.
Him and his partner have obtained the lease on Redleaf Cafe at Double Bay in Sydney.
Great news!
Any of you passing there regardless of class may get a discount if you tell them I sent you.
Details to come.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 10:20 pm
Oopnorth,
I am no bonny lassie, more like lumpy porridge these days (maintaining the Scottish theme).
中华人民共和国
“Burgoo” dear Cat is how to say Lumpy Porridge using the Scottish Theme.
Nana would make it on cold mornings with Sunshine Powdered Milk the preferred addition!! Though my family had never lived in Scotland for over 100 years it was always called “Burgoo”.
Been There says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 10:37 pm
Just thought of throwing this in as well, my second cousin battling cancer has had to give up his heavy labour employment.
Him and his partner have obtained the lease on Redleaf Cafe at Double Bay in Sydney.
中华人民共和国
Well I shall put it in my collection of notes. I am paying Sydney Town a visit in May 2023 for the PB Get together. Mine Host Ms Cat. Keep us all in the loop been there and do wish your second cousin the best of health from all the Bludgers. Not what our faith or creed.
Night one and all. Keep safe. A top weekend for the underdogs in the footy. Cowboys and Rabbithos gettIng up. There will be a few more days of Mourning to get through. Then the hard work starts again.
Do keep an open mind though on my revolving Cricket Captains as head of State. As Bradman said (I think), “Captain of the Australian Cricket Team is the most important job in the nation”.
A good sleep to all
Been There says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 10:37 pm
Yee Hah!
Just thought I’d throw that in.
Big evening on the blog, Upnorth on fire.
Most posters being reasonably civil.
Just thought of throwing this in as well, my second cousin battling cancer has had to give up his heavy labour employment.
Him and his partner have obtained the lease on Redleaf Cafe at Double Bay in Sydney.
Great news!
Any of you passing there regardless of class may get a discount if you tell them I sent you.
Details to come.
中华人民共和国
Do keep us in the loop cobber. I will be in Sydney Town next May for the PB Get Together! Wish your second cousin the best from all we Poll Bludgers. And that’s from the ticker matey. Night all. Keep safe and sound.
This rendition of Handel’s aria from Semele is almost pitch-perfect:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak4bcQh_0Sc
My stones, I’ve just realised I’m posting on a psephology blog – too late.
Beautiful music Mavis.
Thank you, I’m sure WB won’t mind.
Goodnight all, or should I say pepys
Upnorth at 9.59
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 9:47 pm
“First referendum (a year after re-election), Everything stays the same and the Governor General becomes the official Head of State, and the Prime Minister chooses them as what happens now”
You can’t just ignore the reserve powers, apparently the GG can remove a progressive PM with the full confidence of the house but can’t lift a finger to stop a conservative PM subverting democracy, ‘more of the same’ isn’t an acceptable option, I’m a republican but I wouldn’t vote for it.
中华人民共和国
What about my rotating Cricket Captain option with the “reserve powers” removed?
____________
I think sandpaper needs to be involved somewhere along the line. Also, something under-armed.
Dr Doolittle at 10.27
Snappy Tom at 8.55 pm and Socrates at 9.27 pm
I was disputing the myth of nuclear coercion. You (Snappy) gave no examples of it. The reason is that, if you examine the historical record carefully, there are none…
____________
Here’s an example: Ukraine. Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons is clearly, although not exclusively, a factor in Western caution re supporting Ukraine.
As you correctly note, the US (and others) do not want to escalate the current conflict. The ultimate form of ‘escalation’ would involve Russia’s use of nuclear weapons – avoiding this is a rational calculation by the West.
There are intermediate forms of non-nuclear ‘escalation’ – NATO air exclusion zone or boots on the ground etc. Those would involve significant risk of loss of Western lives.
Let us not pretend the risk of nuclear escalation isn’t a factor.
Good story from The Guardian, apologies if already posted by others.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/10/president-biden-finally-is-sounding-the-alarm-about-democracy-good
Best cover
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=royals+cover+song&atb=v314-1&iax=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DEAgEDAzHwio&ia=videos
Late Riser says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 2:28 pm
“Asha, Cronus (and other Qld expats) you’re missing the most perfect weather at the moment. I say this not to remind you of your loss, but to add to the little temptations that may one day accumulate sufficient weight to lure you home. The weather today is bursting with sunshine and warmth, and cool shadows.
Inspired by “Go to a park or something.” Ta nath.”
Fear not Late Riser, I shall certainly be returning in Oct. Good to hear the weather is fine though, I’m expecting my young neighbour will now have no excuse not to mow my grass. The weather in Paris today I must say has been excellent too, 24 degrees and perfect sunshine, it’s as though most of the population turned out to make the most of an unusually balmy Autumn day. It’s due to be 29 degrees tomorrow, almost unheard of at this time of year.
We were congratulated as Australians today by a Frenchman in a cafe and welcomed back to the first world for discarding Morrison, electing Albo and legislating the 43% emissions target. Hard to disagree.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:13 pm
Cronus,
“I envy you being so close to the action that you can see Ukraine, just over there. Is the reporting of the war any different to Australia? I’m interested because Macron is trying to walk both sides of the street and I was wondering if that was reflected in the media coverage? ”
Hi C@T, certainly imho there is greater interest and priority placed on the reporting of the war in Ukraine over here and more of a feel for the ramifications. Not surprising I suppose due to things like the rise in energy costs and inflationary impacts (especially fruit and veg and meat even at the street markets). France and Italy seem to have avoided the worst of those energy impacts however whereas Britain and Germany in particular are feeling it badly.
There is more detail to the reporting of the war from our observations, again I suspect entirely related to the relative proximity of the war. A little surprisingly, we’ve noticed Russian (we presume) being spoken by some tourists. This is not unusual over the past decade but strikes us as anomalous given the current circumstances. I suspect that if things worsen for Putin (as appears is happening) then we might see less fence-sitting by some of the European leaders. All the Chinese tourists have been replaced by US tourists thanks largely to the strength of the US dollar I suspect. Nobody cares about covid over here, it all appears to be considered as an historical event long gone.
New thread.
Upnorth says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:14 pm
kezza2 says:
Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:11 pm
“It’s now 6 minutes later. Who won?
中华人民共和国
Russell Crowe!”
True story, my father-in-law who is deep into the vestiges of Alzheimer’s disease at a wonderful aged care facility regularly tells us that Russell Crowe often calls him seeking him advice on training methods for the Rabbitohs as well as asking him to play for them (chuckles wildly). Of course, we indulge these fantasies after all, what else can you do?
Tricks to walking uneventfully around Paris.
Keep your eyes faced down to avoid the many dog poops, an occupational hazard for tourists on foot.
Keep your eyes faced upward for the constant dripping of water from the pot plants from windows and balconies three stories up.
Who knew a gentle stroll could be so challenging (cobblestones notwithstanding)?