Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

One item of federal polling news plus confusion over the status of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

I don’t have a huge amount of material off which to hang the new open thread that is now past due, partly because a certain event has crowded other matters out of the media, but mostly because of a threadbare schedule of post-election opinion polling in which this is an off week. All we have on that score is the soon-to-be-superseded Roy Morgan weekly update, which tells us only that its latest voting intention poll comes in at 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor, out from 52-48. This is at the high end of how the Albanese government has been doing from this particular series since it came to office, which has been substantially softer for it than the two results we’ve had from Newspoll and the one from Resolve Strategic.

The only other item of electoral news to relate is the confusing news of the United Australia Party’s self-deregistration. This came as a surprise to the party’s sole Senator, Ralph Babet, with Clive Palmer seemingly unclear as to whether the decision was made on his own initiative or that of the party’s supposedly independent executive committee. Palmer, who if Forbes is to be believed is worth $2.1 billion, told Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail that he wished to spare himself the barely existent expense of maintaining registration, and would re-register the party shortly before the next election, despite not planning to run himself.

However, electoral law maven Graeme Orr told the Age/Herald that he might be in for a disappointment on this score, as the electoral laws appear to leave the United Australia Party name off limits to him and anyone else for the remainder of the parliamentary term. Babet will continue to be identified as a Senator for the party for parliamentary purposes, which do not relate to the Australian Electoral Commission’s party registration process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 31 of 31
1 30 31
  1. Ven at 6.15 pm and Boerwar at 6.37 pm

    “If nobody is going to attack Australia, then why is Australia signing up for so many security pacts like ANZUS, AUKUS, QUAD and many other acronym.
    Why is Australia going wherever US is going, no questions asked since WW2 if they are not afraid of some foreign country military invasion? Is it forelock tugging?”

    The short answer is mostly forelock tugging, plus a lot of existential insecurity which, at a conference on a Treaty with Indigenous peoples in Canberra in around 2001, I once heard a man of the cloth explain with reference to the awful colonisation of Australia.

    To be clear, ANZUS is not a security pact. It arose because the US chose to mollify the fears of Australians about Japan when the US formed an alliance with Japan soon after WWII. ANZUS requires only that the parties consult about what to do in a crisis, not that they have mutual security obligations. AUS (minus NZ which left in the mid 1980s because the US insisted on berthing its nuclear warships in NZ harbours) has become a politically entrenched part of Australian life, but the text of ANZUS isn’t like NATO.

    AUKUS (USUKA) is an evolving announcement, nothing more. QUAD is a media beat up. India has not lined up with the other members over Putin’s invasion. There’s an awful lot of acronyms in Defence Department lingo, but they are no substitute for strategy.

    It is, as they say in Russia, “no accident” that the former head of the Department of Foreign Affairs, Alan Renouf, entitled his 1979 book about Australian foreign policy since 1945 The Frightened Country. One of Renouf’s successors was Stuart Harris, who managed the task of merging Foreign Affairs and Trade into one department very well.

    In 1995, Harris wrote this about Australia-China relations (6 years after the massacre on Tienanmen Square):

    “Any bilateral relationship has to be seen against a background of shared experiences,
    differing historical, cultural, racial, linguistic and other factors, as well as of different understandings of common histories. Relationships with China are particularly affected by such considerations, which remain important both in the direct relationship and in our interpretations of the regional context. Yet Australia’s, and the world’s, lack of knowledge of China remains a barrier to understanding that can be a major factor in the relationship. That failure to see China in the same human terms as other countries means that China is commonly seen, and reacted to, as if it were a cardboard cut-out country with its leaders similarly portrayed as stereotypical characters—leading, in a highly centralised manner, a country of 1.2 billion people in a clearly defined and orchestrated direction. Yet nothing in its recent history suggests that China is free from the uncertainties, conflicts of interests and objectives, errors, inadvertencies and uncoordinated implementation that characterises foreign
    policy-making elsewhere.

    This bears upon the question commonly asked about China’s long-term objectives and its potential as a threat. Many of the attempts to answer that question reflect little knowledge either of China or of what is actually happening in the region, but often reflect carryovers of Cold War ideologies or thought patterns.”

    ‘Australia-China Political Relations: From Fear to Friendly Relations?’ Australian Journal of International Affairs, v 49 n 2, pp 244-5.

    Much has changed in the past 27 years regarding China’s global role, but the last sentence remains accurate. A review of a recent book by a US expert on China, Bates Gill (formerly at Macquarie Uni) suggests no hint of any conceivable Chinese attack on PNG, let alone Australia. See:

    A discussion by a sociologist, Katharine Betts, of Australian fears, and nonchalance, about defence, from 2007 (referring to the previous decade) is at:

    Boerwar, the Qn “who is going to invade Australia?” is not simplistic, it is a very basic strategic question. The answer, for Australia, is far from clear, whereas for Ukraine it was all too obvious. On your other points:

    1. Even mad-bad Presidents cannot do occupations alone, as Putin has shown. The main function of the TNI (Indonesian armed forces) has always been internal control of the population. Their second function is corruption. That is essentially why they are in West Papua, for the money they get from the US Freeport mine. The fact that the TNI could not defeat the Fretilin resistance in East Timor shows they could not sustain an attack on northern Australia, even if Australia had no submarines (Ukraine has no fleet).
    2. Time frames are very important, backwards as well as forwards. The example of a climate catastrophe is very serious, but military force is no answer to it in any way.
    3. There are many scenarios but they need to be assessed realistically. Any outside force trying to subdue PNG would be given a hard time by the locals. Why bother if what the outsiders want can be bought? It’s always easier to buy resources than to invade. China has done economic coercion in the past and will continue to do it, but it relies on trade.
    4. Correct, Australia should not presume US assistance (see ANZUS above), but nor should Australian interests re China be distorted by US interests. Harris warned about this in 1995, saying: “The Australian debate, generally more substantive, is reflecting increasingly the strident pressure of the overseas views that dominate our media. The ‘China threat’ anxiety overseas, particularly in the US, comes from a variety of factors, not all of which apply to Australia: the rise of a rival for power and influence, continual ideological concerns about communism, anxiety about another ‘Japan’ with trade surpluses, as well as cruder beliefs in ethnic superiority, and the need to play to an increasingly nationalistic domestic constituency.” (p 245)
    5. & 6. What China builds can be examined in detail. They won’t base 10 planes in the Solomons let alone 1,000. Sogavare is unlikely to be PM there as long as Albo is here.

  2. When I was in my late teens, I suffered a serious knee injury on account of being a drunken moron. It was literally months before I could get in for an MRI, by which point it had healed enough that the doctors weren’t actually able to work out what had originally happened.

    When I wound up wrecking that same knee over ten years later in a workplace accident, I discovered firsthand the differences between the public and private health systems. Had the MRI two days after the injury, and got the results the day after.

  3. After winking at QAnon for years, Donald Trump is overtly embracing the baseless conspiracy theory, even as the number of frightening real-world events linked to it grows.

    On Tuesday, using his Truth Social platform, the Republican former president reposted an image of himself wearing a Q lapel pin overlaid with the words “The Storm is Coming.” In QAnon lore, the “storm” refers to Trump’s final victory, when supposedly he will regain power and his opponents will be tried, and potentially executed, on live television.

    As Trump contemplates another run for the presidency and has become increasingly assertive in the Republican primary process during the midterm elections, his actions show that far from distancing himself from the political fringe, he is welcoming it.

    He’s published dozens of recent Q-related posts, in contrast to 2020, when he claimed that while he didn’t know much about QAnon, he couldn’t disprove its conspiracy theory.

    Pressed on QAnon theories that Trump allegedly is saving the nation from a satanic cult of child sex traffickers, he claimed ignorance but asked, “Is that supposed to be a bad thing?” “If I can help save the world from problems, I’m willing to do it,” Trump said.

  4. “ What is really going on, given that Naval Group is already busy building the Suffren class SSNs in Cherbourg while preparing the 3rd generation SSBN program? We should probably know more in November if Mr. Macron confirms the official trip he has planned to make to Australia.”


    I think the offer to build 4 SSK’s was a feint, to get the government interested in what else Naval group can do (like a full SSN program). As for where they could build them … modules in Cherbourg, assembly in Spain as part of their JV with Navantia to build Scorpione boats seems feasible.

    Because their next gen SSBN is only going to be built in 5 year intervals, there are two spare slots at any time for other boats to be assembled. So there is a spare capacity that neither the Americans or Brits presently have …

  5. Dr D
    China tried to buy virtual total control over Tulagi for 99 years.
    It has settled for buying Sogovare instead.
    We have zero idea of what China intends. Just as we had zero idea what China intended for the South China Sea.

  6. Victoriasays:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 9:03 pm
    Getting an MRI is easy and quick enough.

    I can go and book an MRI from my local imaging centre with no wait time at all.

    It will just cost a lot more than if you wait to get an MRI from a public hospital, which is much cheaper or fully covered by medicare.

    The same applies to getting a colonscopy or gastroscopy.

    I don’t know why AE granddaughter has to wait for 6 months in NSW because my spouse booked MRI last week at a private Imaging centre and got it done with in a week. Also, it was charged to Medicare.

  7. Ven

    Ive had MRIs done at my local imaging centre.
    Virtually same day as requested and bulk billed.

    Perhaps it is a more specialised test and there is a waiting list.

  8. “ I don’t know why AE granddaughter has to wait for 6 months in NSW because my spouse booked MRI last week at a private Imaging centre and got it done with in a week. Also, it was charged to Medicare.”

    Not all MRI procedures are the same. The 6 months includes 3 cancellations due to different reasons. Not all of these reasons were resource based. “Roll with the punches”? It’s like an actual motto for families going on this journey. Which is why the reaction against Hutchins – especially in the media and ‘commentators’ is completely over the top, IMO. The reaction from the family in question however? I can completely understand: but they are at the beginning of a very difficult journey.

  9. We do have a two-tiered health system. MRI’s, like elective surgery, are probably more readily available to those with private health insurance.

  10. Lest it be said I only ever report good news, Labour managed to lose a by-election in one of the safest Labour wards in Bolton (north of Manchester) last night

    The Rumworth ward is heavily Asian, and a sitting Asian Labour councillor defected to the Tories over the summer .. quite what’s going on there I’ve no idea. The Lib Dem and Green vote went down as well

    Labour lost the ward 55-38 having won it 55-36 in May 2022, a swing of 18%

    This gain for the Tories, and a defence in deep blue Sussex, are the first electoral successes for Liz Truss

    Plus this:

    Britain Elects

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (-1)
    CON: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 5% (+1)

    via @techneUK
    14 – 15 Sep, Changes with 7-8 September

    On the question of porta-potties for the London queue, I presume arrangements have been made

    You are allowed to leave the queue for calls of nature, and reclaim your place, by use of a bracelet system

  11. I may end up in hospital myself tonight. I’m pretty unwell right now. But Gosford Hospital is 1st class, having benefited from lots of $$ from being a bellweather seat.

    And before anyone casts aspersions, no I’m not playing for sympathy.

    And nath, I’m glad you’re back too.

  12. The healthcare system in all of Australia and the world has been battered by Covid. Obliviously politics of the Vic state election is happening, but I don’t think its health system is uniquely bad compared to the rest of the country.
    Just about every state election has been about healthcare ever since Covid which has mean’t Labor wins every time on that one, especially when it came to Covid where the LNP always showed little interest in protecting people.

  13. Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (=)
    CON: 28% (=)
    LDM: 10% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    RFM: 5% (+1)
    SNP: 4% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling
    13 Sep, Changes w/ 7 Sep

    This is the newish polling outfit who do polls for the GBNews network

    So Lab +12 here, +5 with Techne earlier .. there was a +12 on the 14th from Delta which followed a +10 from YouGov on the 12th

    At least the polls aren’t herding 🙂

  14. ‘Prince Harry now allowed to wear military uniform at Queen’s vigil’

    i newspaper

    Prince Harry had originally been told he would not be allowed to wear his uniform, but the Palace has since overturned its decision after Prince Andrew was told he could do the same as a “final mark of respect”

    Looks like KCIII is going full-on rehabilitation for Prince Andrew

    That’ll be popular ….

  15. Best wishes and good health Cat. Think of the Victorian Liberals’ election propsects with Matt Guy as LOTO if you need cheering up 🙂

  16. Ray (UK)says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 9:55 pm
    Lest it be said I only ever report good news, Labour managed to lose a by-election in one of the safest Labour wards in Bolton (north of Manchester) last night

    The Rumworth ward is heavily Asian, and a sitting Asian Labour councillor defected to the Tories over the summer .. quite what’s going on there I’ve no idea. The Lib Dem and Green vote went down as well

    Labour lost the ward 55-38 having won it 55-36 in May 2022, a swing of 18%

    This gain for the Tories, and a defence in deep blue Sussex, are the first electoral successes for Liz Truss

    I told ya that Liz Truss will win election because of sympathy wave across UK for the Queen. Usually incumbent government will benefit from those kind of waves.
    If Liz Truss calls an election either next month or in November, the Tories will win that election.

  17. Multimillionaire Ex-Premier League footballer and A-List celebrity David Beckham is in the queue to see the Queen lying in state in Westminster Hall

    Apparently some celebs have been jumping the queue so good for him 🙂

  18. Eyup, the orderly queueing protocol us Brits are famous for is breaking down

    The Telegraph

    People continue to enter Southwark Park to queue to see the lying in state at Westminster Hall despite instructions from the Government that entry to the line has been paused until at least 4pm on Friday

    “Queue branded a complete shambles” screams a Telegraph online headline 🙂

  19. Ray:

    Come on, now, Prince Andrew’s only crime was sleeping with an underage sex trafficking victim while staying at his pedophile friend’s house. It’s not like he did anything truly awful, like marry a black person.

  20. Regarding the US polls – the fact that they only have the Democrats a few points up (3.9% on average, per Simon Katich’s comment) should be concerning. The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI – a measure of how a given area “tilts” politically in a neutral election) value for the 218th House of Representative seat is R+4.0. That means that in an election where the Democrats lead the Republicans nationwide by 4.0% of the vote, 217 seats will go R, 217 go D, and this seat – MI-08 – will be a coin-flip.

    Of course, if the Democrats’ nationwide vote tally is less than 4% ahead of the Republican tally…well.

Comments Page 31 of 31
1 30 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *