Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)

A burst of enthusiasm for the monarchy, steady support for federal Labor, and some other stuff.

Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.

The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.

Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,137 comments on “Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)”

Comments Page 23 of 23
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  1. @C@t:

    “ Don’t misrepresent me in order to construct a point. Fyi, I meant only to refer to your original sally against me. All else was simply an observation about your style in general.”

    ______

    You conveniently ignore that my ‘original sally against’ you was in response to this embarrassing, factually incorrect bit of propaganda which included exactly the sort of condescending put down of me that you complain of like a ruptured choir boy. Comrade, there is a plank in your eye:

    “ I’m not well enough to go toe to toe with the florid imaginings of Andrew_Earlwood but may I just observe that the Taiwanese are no pawns in anyone’s greater game (except if you count the unreasonable expectations of the Chinese). In fact they are a nation, proud of the fact of their separation from China and a full 89% of them would like it to stay that way. According to the latest poll. America is simply making clear that it will come to their aid if necessary in order to prevent them from being assimilated by the Chinese Borg.

    And it’s simply guff to make the rash assumption that China will become the pre-eminent global superpower. Last time I looked America was still the number one economy in the world and making plans to keep it that way and China’s economy was the one that was faltering.”

  2. C@tmomma:

    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 7:17 pm

    I take on board what you say & hope you’re right, but I think there must be a period of atonement, with those responsible
    for war crimes to face criminal proceedings and those who turned a blind eye to suffer consequences. I’m not sure though that Marles is willing to take on the military establishment. But as I see it, this is a most opportune time.

  3. Mavis at 7.39 pm

    Correct, re timing and substance. There’s “never been a better time” for Australia to uphold its obligations to the International Criminal Court, by fully investigating all serious allegations of war crimes committed anywhere by Australian personnel since mid-2002. Otherwise any calls for international justice by Australia will be hypocritical, such as the calls from others for the creation of a special tribunal (not the ICC) to prosecute war crimes in Putin’s war, mainly because the US (and other states) previously ensured that the Court could not investigate acts of aggression without a specific referral from the Security Council, in contrast to the Court’s jurisdiction over other war crimes, which has a much broader, sensible basis.

    Australia was one of 42 states jointly referring the situation in Ukraine to the Court, and so it has to ensure that it fulfils all its obligations under the Court’s statute.

  4. Not realy the referendums will not be free and fair any way i agree that the Us does not care abbout tiwon they do not even recognize them as adesbite Chinas prevockative actions it would befoolish to join a war against chine but not actively defend ucraine military as America is using tiwon as a porn as a procksie to stop China from its supper power status the human rights stuff is nonsence the us never cared abbout tebet human rights abuse as long as china would not chalinge supper power status

  5. I thin from the us “Taiwan vs China” is diffrent from Tibet in two ways.

    China can not get into the Pacific without going through one of the islands.

    Taiwan also makes most computer chips.

  6. Re Simon Katich @ 8.27pm,
    The Russians are trying to wave a magic wand a la Trump and his’declassified’ documents, via a bastardised ‘referendum’, over the Luhansk and Donbas Regions so that they can claim them as theirs. Because they say so it will become a part of Russia. It’s as if I print out a self-created document that I created on my computer and walked next door and said that I own your house now. It’s nuts. Putin is losing the plot.

  7. Simon Katich at 8.27 pm

    That story is legalistic nonsense if not obfuscation. Kremlin sources cited by the independent Russian media suggest the real timetable for fake referenda is on hold. See:

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/12/there-s-no-talk-of-november-anymore

    Medvedev (from the Reuters photo) looks to be on an unhealthy diet or non-diet. He has been used by Putin during his war as a mouthpiece for idiotic statements.

    The BBC Russian service has given priority to Alla Pugacheva’s ridiculing of Putin’s war, via her request to be designated a “foreign agent”. Here are some responses:

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/20/we-ll-win-without-her-songs

    The last one is from the daughter of Putin’s original post-USSR boss in Leningrad, Ksenia Sobchak, who makes the message simple to comprehend in everyday terms.

    The penultimate comment, from a Russian economist in Spain, refers to the largest peasant revolt under the Tsars, led by an ex-army rebel leader named Pugachev.

  8. a r at 9.17

    It worked for Crimea. Just saying.
    ____________

    Let’s assume the US has a leading role in the Western world (it does.) I have to say that, by and large, the Obama administration handled the “Arab Spring” and the (non-) Russian takeover of Crimea pretty badly.

  9. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 8:29 am
    Cronus

    Good to see you enjoying your overseas trip.

    “Agree that the only consolation in italy with the imminent election of a far right PM etc this week, is that govts always fall apart within year or two.”

    I feel as though I’m currently in South Melbourne Markets on steroids (chuckles), lovin it.

  10. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 8:57 am
    “According to intelligence data, Russian troops tried to conduct a counter-offensive on Ukrainian positions in the Bakhmut area. Artillery and multiple launch rocket units of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Russian Army Corps carried out the attack. In order to stop their forces’ retreating, Russian commanders were forced to once again remind their subordinates about the prohibition against voluntary withdrawals from positions, as well as about the possibility that rear blocking units might open fire on them, the intelligence said.”

    If confirmed, the concept that troops have to be advised of the ramifications is a very real and concerning indicator of poor morale. No force in this condition is in any position to win battles far less a war, regardless of numerical superiority.

  11. Gosh, who would ever have guessed privatising public services would see this shit happen to the services ?
    .
    .
    ‘Abject failure’: Push to end bus privatisations

    ………….. privatisation of public transport with a stark decline in service quality and higher costs for commuters.

    The NSW Legislative Council report, released on Tuesday, found privatisation of Sydney’s bus network had incentivised cost-cutting, which unfairly impacted vulnerable people.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/abject-failure-parliament-committee-want-to-roll-back-sydney-bus-privatisation-20220920-p5bjky.html

  12. “ No force in this condition is in any position to win battles far less a war, regardless of numerical superiority.”

    It seemed to work for the Red Army at some critical times during WW2.

  13. barney says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 9:31 pm
    Upnorth where is your evidence for japanese spies parachuting in and around Townsville? first i’ve heard of
    中华人民共和国
    Apart from family stories I heard it from two primary sources during the VP 50 commemorations in Townsville in 1995.

    Both sources corroborated the parachutists (they we Australian Security Services in the war) so I am very sure it’s not folklore. Apparently one was killed in the jump and the other captured. They jumped up on the Harvey Range which is tough country in the best of times.

    There are a couple of other war happenings that I guess either classified or for reasons covered up.

    There were allegations gun fight between US and Australian servicemen at the Home Hill railway station and the hanging of Negro Servicemen accused of rape in Townsville.

    As Mavis alluded to earlier, much is lost in the “fog of war”. But these old diggers and earlier family stories corroborated numerous yarns Upnorth.

  14. I’ve just been looking at photos from Bakhmut in the NYT. It certainly looks like the Ukrainian military is still in control there.

    Also, I just read that the Russian puppet Administrator in Kherson has also called for a referendum.

    I enjoyed the way the Institute for the Study of War put it about the referendum in the Luhansk Region:
    They said the call by the Russian proxy leaders for Moscow to “immediately” annex the territories reflected panic and was incoherent since it would “place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy ‘Russian’ territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand.”

  15. Andrew_Earlwood at 9.57 pm

    The context and the nature of the armies are entirely different. Putin hasn’t even got a name for his war, whereas 1941-45 is called the Great Patriotic Fatherland War.

    India has voted to endorse Zelenskiy speaking to the General Assembly via video, a clear shift in the Indian position. See:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/united-nations-ukraine-russia-war-climate-crisis-famine-global-south

    At the same time the US has shifted its position toward supporting Security Council reform, a longstanding Indian (and African) objective. Unlikely to be a coincidence.

  16. Putin hasn’t even got a name for his war

    Doesn’t he call it ‘Denazifying Ukraine’? He’s forgotten that effective propaganda has to at least be vaguely plausible.

  17. Cat at 10.09 pm

    If you want real international law, not media contortions, here is (US) Judge Dillard:

    “It seemed hardly necessary to make more explicit the cardinal restraint
    which the legal right of self-determination imposes. That restraint may be
    captured in a single sentence. It is for the people to determine the destiny of
    the territory and not the territory the destiny of the people.”

    icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/61/061-19751016-ADV-01-07-EN.pdf (p 114)

    Separate Opinion of Judge Dillard in Western Sahara case (re rights of Indigenous Peoples), delivered on 16 October 1975 (the day the Indonesians attacked Balibo).

  18. Dr Doolittle

    “ At the same time the US has shifted its position toward supporting Security Council reform, a longstanding Indian (and African) objective. Unlikely to be a coincidence.”

    Interesting. I agree it is reasonable. The current membership of the UN Security Council is an anachronism.

    I also agree with the desirability of senior Australian army officers being charged over alleged Afghanistan offenses (and the coverup). This isn’t just being virtuous. Australia should still want those responsible for crimes such as the downing of MH17 to face justice. We need to walk the walk and talk the talk.

    There is a very active grapevine in the military. Talk of what happened must be damaging to the credibility of the leadership. Rotten leadership never fixes itself in undemocratic structures. It needs an external push.

  19. FWIW

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdGQ9rrWQAAFIjT?format=jpg&name=medium#image.jpg

    Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |
    @ChuckPfarrer
    KHERSON/1215 UTC 20 SEP/ Over the last 24 hrs, UKR Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) missions destroyed 5 Russian air defense complexes. With RU Air Defense impacted, UKR conducted 15 Close Air Support missions against RU troop concentrations in the Kherson AO.
    10:14 PM · Sep 20, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App

    Also, a “live” map, meaning they are updated from time to time, but you can zoom and/or move around.
    https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375


  20. porotisays:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 9:57 pm
    Gosh, who would ever have guessed privatising public services would see this shit happen to the services ?
    .
    .
    ‘Abject failure’: Push to end bus privatisations

    ………….. privatisation of public transport with a stark decline in service quality and higher costs for commuters.

    The NSW Legislative Council report, released on Tuesday, found privatisation of Sydney’s bus network had incentivised cost-cutting, which unfairly impacted vulnerable people.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/abject-failure-parliament-committee-want-to-roll-back-sydney-bus-privatisation-20220920-p5bjky.html

    Did privatisation of essential Public services had a stark decline in service quality and higher costs for costumers?
    What a surprise? Who could have guessed that? If privatisation fails what to do next?

  21. Apparently, there is an update to one of the maps.

    Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |
    @ChuckPfarrer
    ERRATUM: Please note, Novovoznesenske and Myrolyubivka are plotted erroneously. They will be corrected on updated maps.
    11:16 PM · Sep 20, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App


  22. Dr Doolittlesays:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 10:16 pm
    Andrew_Earlwood at 9.57 pm

    The context and the nature of the armies are entirely different. Putin hasn’t even got a name for his war, whereas 1941-45 is called the Great Patriotic Fatherland War.

    India has voted to endorse Zelenskiy speaking to the General Assembly via video, a clear shift in the Indian position. See:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/united-nations-ukraine-russia-war-climate-crisis-famine-global-south

    At the same time the US has shifted its position toward supporting Security Council reform, a longstanding Indian (and African) objective. Unlikely to be a coincidence.

    Dr. D
    UN Security council reform unlikely to happen as long as China is opposed to it.
    IMO, There should be no permanent UN Security council members. Expand the Security council member number from current to atleast 10% of U membership and have a vote for them every 2 years

  23. The ChuckPfarrer maps / reports should maybe be taken as about the most “optimistic” ones out there as far as the Ukrainian perspective on the war.

  24. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 9:57 pm
    No force in this condition is in any position to win battles far less a war, regardless of numerical superiority.

    “It seemed to work for the Red Army at some critical times during WW2.”

    I would say the Russian army of WWII shared one key similarity with the Ukrainian army of 2022, they were both fighting existential wars. The impact of that element on the psyche of the combatant is imo enormous. Real morale is not so much a matter of bravado (everyone is confident when the going is good) but rather of resilience, even fanaticism against all odds through a belief that what one is doing is indisputably right and necessary.

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 10:09 pm
    “I’ve just been looking at photos from Bakhmut in the NYT. It certainly looks like the Ukrainian military is still in control there.
    Also, I just read that the Russian puppet Administrator in Kherson has also called for a referendum.
    I enjoyed the way the Institute for the Study of War put it about the referendum in the Luhansk Region:
    They said the call by the Russian proxy leaders for Moscow to “immediately” annex the territories reflected panic and was incoherent since it would “place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy ‘Russian’ territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand.”

    I have to say this sounds like a terrible, panicked thought-bubble to me. It smacks of fear, is irrational and would likely to worsen the overall Russian position. It’s further proof of an ill-conceived initial Russian plan. This is not a case of adapting to changing circumstances (flexibility being a characteristic of war), this is Putin’s subordinate allies dictating to him and making demands based on fear. This is not the way to conduct a successful, planned and coordinated campaign.

  26. Dutton on 4 Corners.. if Copper Peter was going to expose his soft side he can count this as a life defining failure.. a real low life.

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