Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)

A burst of enthusiasm for the monarchy, steady support for federal Labor, and some other stuff.

Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.

The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.

Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,137 comments on “Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)”

Comments Page 22 of 23
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  1. dutton seems to be strugiling because he is sayinglabor is making a bad situwation worse but he is basickly undermining morrisons mesage that we never had it better andsayuing the liberals stuft up the economy

  2. I see the Insufferable Suffren Man has been throwing his tiny weight around the blog today (not much call for your services ATM, Andrew _Earlwood?). If you’re not with his interpretation of history or current geopolitics, then the self-appointed Terry Tao of History, will race down to the front of the PB classroom to correct you. His interpretation of History isn’t necessarily correct but he’ll attempt one of his intimidatory mini essays to ‘prove’ it. If that doesn’t work then he’ll just try to humiliate you for having a different opinion. I think it’s the weakest way to try to win a debate, quite frankly. But there you go, he’s convinced himself, obviously, that it works for him.

    And, yes, I am still in my sick bed, thanks for asking, but you showed your true colours today, Andrew_Earlwood, when you sought to mock me because of it. My spies told me that you had expressed genuine concern for my welfare initially. I should have known it was just an act.

    Now if you don’t mind, I’d like to be able to make a comment without you thinking you have to come down on me like a ton of bricks every time, Andrew_Earlwood. It’s fucking exhausting! Or at least give it a rest for 5 minutes. Not every comment I make is a nail and you, the hammer.

  3. Kelta says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 4:57 pm
    Upnorth , no you didn’t mention an invasion but you did imply compliance but force, same thing to me .
    But are you surprised..?
    中华人民共和国
    Not surprised Cobber. Every couple of generations China closes to “foreign threats”. Xi’s doctrine and resultant xenophobia that has forced on Hong Kong would not have been out of place in the court of the Emperor Qianlong.

  4. Asha says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 4:56 pm
    I didn’t even realise Toowoomba had a regular airport!
    中华人民共和国
    And a Quarantine center that the Tories and MSM keeps attacking.

  5. My ambivalence to the recent British monarchical funeral, pomp and circumstance date back to WWII. During both world wars Australia unquestioningly supported Britain as I suspect was considered reasonable at the time.

    I understand Britain’s desire for self preservation in the face of Hitler. What most concerned me however was the deception and potential betrayal displayed by Churchill towards Curtin (Australia) given Churchill’s secret preparedness to abandon Australia to Japan from early on in WWII. In simple terms, Australia’s contributions to the British war effort in terms of blood and treasure were very significant and deserved far more than British duplicity.

    It was somewhat ironic therefore that it was America (and not our mother country England) that came to our aid assisting us in our greatest hour of need against Japan. America has many faults but its proven willingness to support Australia in the manner of good allies (albeit to achieve its broader strategic goals) is undeniable. It has proven to be a better and more genuine friend than Britain imho. I consider Britain to be allies in a similar manner to Canada or Western European nations but nothing more.

  6. Toowoomba can call itself a space port if it wants.

    I have some other names I would like to call it.

    Nearly got lynched in the park there one cold but sunny Sunday morning. My crime? Reading the newspaper, drinking a coffee, in a skivvy.

    And something about dancing with somebodies girlfriend the night before.

  7. SK

    “Reading the newspaper, drinking a coffee, in a skivvy.

    And something about dancing with somebodies girlfriend the night before”

    The skivvy sounds like the primary suspect.

  8. Perhaps up the dosage of laudanum C@t: if you think that most of my posts today concerned you, then I fear you are in the grips of Delirium tremens.

    You might also want to review your own offerings before you complain about how ‘personal’/‘abusive’ my posts are of you. Glass jaw. Much.

    Regardless of all that, I genuinely wish you well comrade. ChiComm obsessions and yankee obsequiousness aside, you’re a good egg.

  9. Cronus says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 5:33 pm

    Without any doubt at all, America came to Australia’s aid during WW2 because Japan had first attacked America. We should just as well say that Australia came to America’s aid. This was an alliance born of common necessity. Curtin was able to persuade Roosevelt – if he needed any persuasion – that America should tackle Japan as well as Germany. America committed itself to fighting in two great theatres. Britain could just about manage to defend itself in the one.

    Nonetheless it’s true that Churchill sought to disregard Curtin’s demands. Curtin would have none of it. If Churchill had a doctrine it included defending British interests in India even if that meant abandoning the Pacific dominions to Imperial Japan. Churchill’s doctrine meant nothing to Curtin, who knew what to do and did it.

  10. Old Hat says:

    Nonetheless it’s true that Churchill sought to disregard Curtin’s demands. Curtin would have none of it. If Churchill had a doctrine it included defending British interests in India even if that meant abandoning the Pacific dominions to Imperial Japan. Churchill’s doctrine meant nothing to Curtin, who knew what to do and did it.
    ____
    I assume that Churchill and Roosevelt thought that American troops flooding into the Australian region would guarantee Australia. I believe that Churchill wanted the Australian divisions to remain in the Middle East originally.

  11. Except, of course, there were no troops flooding into Australia – hence the importance of Kokoda.

    Roosevelt & Churchill had a ‘Europe first’ agreement which (unknown to Australia) prioritised beating Hitler over fighting the Japanese.

  12. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 6:30 pm

    Except, of course, there were no troops flooding into Australia – hence the importance of Kokoda.
    ___________________
    Nearly one million U.S servicemen would pass through Australia during WW2. We were in no danger at all. However, the hysterics never thought so.

  13. It astonishes me that some Australians still don’t get it. The pattern of Churchill’s behaviours in WW2 was to suck Australia dry for the UK while feeding Australia to Japan.

  14. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 6:37 pm

    It astonishes me that some Australians still don’t get it. The pattern of Churchill’s behaviours in WW2 was to suck Australia dry for the UK while feeding Australia to Japan.
    ____
    Utter Bullshit. Churchill sent considerable forces to defend Singapore and Australia.

  15. The Curtin government’s declaration of war on Japan marked a dramatic chapter in Australia’s wartime history during which armed conflict spread to the Asia-Pacific region and Australians increasingly believed that the country’s sovereignty was under threat. As opposition leader in 1939 Curtin had believed that the war could reach Australian soil, and by 1941 the newly formed Curtin government along with the War Cabinet held a genuine fear of Japanese invasion.
    Australia’s declaration of war on Japan was a response to the coordinated attacks by the Japanese on United States and British territories across the Asia-Pacific region. As the speech indicates, diplomatic negotiations with Japan in Washington were terminated by the Japanese bombing of the United States naval base at Pearl Harbour as well as attacks on Hong Kong, Singapore, the Philippines and British Malaya.

    https://www.naa.gov.au/learn/learning-resources/learning-resource-themes/war/world-war-ii/australia-declares-war-japan-excerpt-prime-minister-john-curtins-address-nation

  16. The Fall of Singapore, also known as the Battle of Singapore,[c] took place in the South–East Asian theatre of the Pacific War. The Empire of Japan captured the British stronghold of Singapore, with fighting lasting from 8 to 15 February 1942. Singapore was the foremost British military base and economic port in South–East Asia and had been of great importance to British interwar defence strategy. The capture of Singapore resulted in the largest British surrender in its history.

    Very little stood between Japanese forces and Australia following the Battle of Singapore, barely 3 months on from the attack on Pearl Harbour.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_Singapore

  17. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 6:44 pm

    nath

    He sent considerable forces but he withdrew them once Singapore fell, and demanded that Australia send its troops to defend Burma (and India).
    _____
    He didn’t withdraw them. They were either dead or P.O.W’s. And HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales were sunk. Sent by Churchill.

    While at the same time they were fighting in Europe and the Middle East.

  18. I see that nath STILL does not get it.
    List of frontline fighters sent to Malaya: zero.
    List of frontline bombers sent to Malaya: zero.
    List of frontline heavy bombers sent Malaya: zero.
    List of tanks sent to Malaya: zero.
    List of heavy artillery sent to Malaya: zero.
    List of troops sent to Malaya equivalent in equipment, skill and experience to the Australian divisions in North Africa: zero.

  19. @nath:

    “Nearly one million U.S servicemen would pass through Australia during WW2. We were in no danger at all. However, the hysterics never thought so.”

    _______

    What is critical to consider is WHEN those troops actually passed through Australia.

    Whilst McArthur was the supreme allied commander for the overall theatre, this was divided into three sectors: the Americans got responsibility for the South Pacific islands and the Pacific Ocean generally, Australia had responsibility for Papua, New Genuia and Indonesia and the Brits had responsibility for India into south west China.

    For the whole of 1942 and 1943 the vast majority of troops under McArthur’s overall command were Australian, and the Australian army did most of the heavy lifting by the Western allies in the land fighting against the Japanese during this period. Papua and New Guinea was spine of the whole operation and it was us, and not America who had that responsibility. Of course McArthur gaslighted the Australian army and it’s excellent commanders. Largely due to jealously and also for political propaganda purposes back at home (a bit like Morrison, at the heart of his operations was a comms team spinning for the boss). Blayney did a bit to protect his commanders but McArthur had Curtin’s ear and confidence. Many very good soldiers ended up being thrown under the bus at McArthur’s behest.

  20. FMD! POW and Repulse:
    1. POW not worked up properly.
    2. Repulse- a clapped out WW1 battle cruiser which was totally unsuitable to face air attacks. Sank within minutes of being hit.
    3. No air cover!!!!!!
    4. Totally inadequate supporting ships.
    5. Captained by a total fuckwit who believed that capital ships could withstand air attacks withou air cover.
    6. Would certainly been trashed if the IJN had got to them!

  21. I guess Churchill didn’t send enough troops in the few months between Pearl Harbor and Malaya. Which Theater should he have taken these troops from?

  22. The other question is, logistically, how could you get enough troops to Malaya to make a difference between December 41 and February 42. How many hundreds of ships are you going to need to transport these forces, and where are you going to get them from.

    Poor old Churchill, juggling a thousand things and getting blamed for not conjuring up imaginary Armies.

  23. Townsville would serve as the largest US armed forces base in Australia. Both the Army and Army Air Force used Townsville as the staging point for the campaigns in Coral Sea, PNG and the Island hopping up to the Philippines.

    Smaller centers outside Townsville like Charters Towers, Ingram and the Burdekin has sizable American presence. At Mt Isa the Hospital was built into a hill in case of bombing.

    Townsville was itself bombed and a number of Japanese Submarines detected off Capes Cleveland, Bowling Green and Upstart.

    The Japanese dropped several parachutists close to Townsville to carry out spy missions.

    The people of North Queensland were very worried about invasion.

    Fortunately the Battle of the Coral Sea then the Defence of Port Moresby on Kokoda and victories at Milne Bay, Lae and the PNG North Coast stopped the Japanese from strangling Australia from US assistance. Had this not happened and Guadalcanal been lost Japan would effectively close Australias sea lanes.

  24. Townsville would serve as the largest US armed forces base in Australia. Both the Army and Army Air Force used Townsville as the staging point for the campaigns in Coral Sea, PNG and the Island hopping up to the Philippines.

    Smaller centers outside Townsville like Charters Towers, Ingram and the Burdekin has sizable American presence. At Mt Isa the Hospital was built into a hill in case of bombing.

    Townsville was itself bombed and a number of Japanese Submarines detected off Capes Cleveland, Bowling Green and Upstart.

    The Japanese dropped several parachutists close to Townsville to carry out spy missions.

    The people of North Queensland were very worried about invasion.

    Fortunately the Battle of the Coral Sea then the Defence of Port Moresby on Kokoda and victories at Milne Bay, Lae and the PNG North Coast stopped the Japanese from strangling Australia from US assistance.

    Had this not happened and Guadalcanal been lost Japan would effectively close Australias sea lanes.

    Australian troops (many in the Militia Chocolate Soldiers) fought the Kokoda campaign without US assistance and at the hectoring of MacArthur.

  25. Rex Douglas:

    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 3:54 pm

    [‘What is Marles going to do about investigating the brass re their command standards in Afghanistan …?’]

    I’m minded of the maxim that a fish rots from the head down, quite apt in the context of apportioning responsibility for the alleged war crimes in Afghanistan on the lower deck.

    Had mid-ranking officers – and even more senior officers – done what was required of them, the proud history of our diggers, apart from their ocassional shocking disreprect of British officers in both wars, would not have been trashed.

    I’d add that once departing from the norms of the rules of engagement, it’s difficult to come back as Oz can no longer
    take the high road, subject of course to the allegations thereof being proven – in the fog of war(?).

  26. Andrew _Earlwood,
    Don’t misrepresent me in order to construct a point. Fyi, I meant only to refer to your original sally against me. All else was simply an observation about your style in general.

    And, thanks for asking, but I am getting by fine with paracetamol, rest and starvation. Oh, and not being as triggered as you want me to be. I’m happy supporting the Biden Administration and being on the side of the good guys. You can do you and keep supporting China and Neville Chamberlain. 🙂

  27. Nath

    Churchill sent no virtually British ground troops or aircraft to defend Singapore. There were ships – Prince of Wales, Repulse, Hermes and a few cruisers, and Australian 8th Division. Most of the British ships were sunk and the rest did withdraw after Singapore fell in early 1942. It was Aussie and Indian troops who were surrendered at Singapore by the British general Percival.

    The other three Australian divisions in the mid east (6, 7 and 9) were requested by Curtin to be returned to defend Australia, but Churchill either refused or delayed. 7th Division got back by mid 1942 in time to assist in New Guinea. The US navy turned back the Japanese fleet at Coral Sea in May 1942.

    9th was deliberately held back by the Brits to be one of the key assault units at El Alamein in November 1942. It wasn’t fit for use in New Guinea till late 1943.

    So from February 1942 to late 1943 there were virtually no British forces in the Pacific. This was the critical period when all the key battles were decided.

  28. Paul Keating on Churchill:

    Churchill had spoken of his ‘solemn responsibility to the Australian people’. Graham asks ‘which foreign president or prime minister will ever write ‘my solemn responsibility to the Australian people’, with half so good a will as Churchill did?’

  29. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 7:12 pm

    So from February 1942 to late 1943 there were virtually no British forces in the Pacific. This was the critical period when all the key battles were decided.
    ____
    It;s true. The failure of Churchill to Teleport enough troops, tanks and aircraft to the Pacific was regrettable.

  30. Charles has apparently told the Welsh First Minister that “something must be done” about the cost of living
    If memory serves a turning point in the mercifully brief reign of Edward VIII was him publicly saying “something must be done” about unemployment after touring Merthyr Tydfil. The thought of an interventionist King was too much for the establishment
    https://digitalcommons.salve.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1119&context=pell_theses

    Coincidence? I don’t think so.
    The boy will ruin himself within 12 months

  31. Mavis,
    I get what you are saying about the Australian troops in Afghanistan but all things must pass, as the great George Harrison said, and I believe that under fresh stewardship by Labor that the Armed Forces of Australia can resurrect their reputation. America really screwed up in Afghanistan and Iraq, but they are proving that, with their support for Ukraine that reputations can be improved after serious setbacks to that reputation.

  32. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 7:17 pm

    ________________________
    Did you see the footage of Charles III meeting Sinn Fein and then Our Sir Jeffrey?

  33. Battle of Milne Bay being a case in point, Australians received plenty of criticism but no support from MacArthur saying full frontal attack. Australian attacked and withdrew until they reached their airport where the officers had set up machine gun defenses with their WW1 experience and defeated them. This denied them an airbase and consumed men and equipment. Helping the Americans in Guadalcanal.

  34. nath

    I assume you’ve given up on defending your original assumption..

    ‘I assume that Churchill and Roosevelt thought that American troops flooding into the Australian region would guarantee Australia.’

    There is no way that either Churchill or Roosevelt could assume that. There was not a flood of American troops into the region at that time.

    Churchill may not have been able to come to Australia’s aid, fair enough, but he actively sought to take troops away from Australia which were needed here.

    He did that knowing that Roosevelt was going to prioritise the war in Europe over the Pacific.

  35. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/17/morgan-polls-sec-newgate-poll-jscem-submissions/comment-page-22/#comment-3981089

    I’d say out of the BRICs the Indians are the hardest to read. QUAD or not.
    (My Malaysian friends would say snakeiest, and they have the whole sons of the soil, Chinese, everyone else going …)
    Perhaps they think they (still) have a non-aligned choice (despite the whole you are either with us or against us of 2001 onwards) between America etc or Russia (who they g[o]t a chunk of their power gear from for some time)/ China after all?
    And, no society can survive beyond a few meals.
    McK the other day had a piece on how the subcontinent is further advanced in services than say manufacturing, and so they see a more diverse economy, more people, etc model as more conducive.

  36. A scan

    Those who live on internet sites, hey?

    But a couple of things

    When Churchill met Roosevelt on board a ship off the Canadian coast, Churchill has a detail consisting of Australian Air Force personnel en route to the UK via Canada

    “All he bloody well offered were bloody sandwiches – and we had to bloody well pay for them”

    My Father was in the detail – on his way to the UK

    In regard the Opposition response to Chalmers, the Opposition should revisit the Mining Boom Phase 1, from 2004 until 2007, both inclusive and where the proceeds were pissed up against the proverbial wall chasing votes leading to inflation and increasing interest rates

    The 10 Year Bond Yield had a 7 in front of it

    Then came the GFC

    Europe, courtesy of its history, is complex and troubled born from conflict

    That is why Wars start there

    And that is before the USA pokes its nose in!!!

    Mind you, the USA do not win Wars

  37. Lars
    Welcome back
    Indeed, the question is whether the faux pas was due to ignorance or political intervention. I favour the latter as he was staring at Donaldson as he said it,
    A wild ride ahead

  38. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 7:25 pm

    nath

    I assume you’ve given up on defending your original assumption..

    ‘I assume that Churchill and Roosevelt thought that American troops flooding into the Australian region would guarantee Australia.’
    _________
    You are wrong again. I still stand by that assumption.

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