Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

One item of federal polling news plus confusion over the status of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

I don’t have a huge amount of material off which to hang the new open thread that is now past due, partly because a certain event has crowded other matters out of the media, but mostly because of a threadbare schedule of post-election opinion polling in which this is an off week. All we have on that score is the soon-to-be-superseded Roy Morgan weekly update, which tells us only that its latest voting intention poll comes in at 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor, out from 52-48. This is at the high end of how the Albanese government has been doing from this particular series since it came to office, which has been substantially softer for it than the two results we’ve had from Newspoll and the one from Resolve Strategic.

The only other item of electoral news to relate is the confusing news of the United Australia Party’s self-deregistration. This came as a surprise to the party’s sole Senator, Ralph Babet, with Clive Palmer seemingly unclear as to whether the decision was made on his own initiative or that of the party’s supposedly independent executive committee. Palmer, who if Forbes is to be believed is worth $2.1 billion, told Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail that he wished to spare himself the barely existent expense of maintaining registration, and would re-register the party shortly before the next election, despite not planning to run himself.

However, electoral law maven Graeme Orr told the Age/Herald that he might be in for a disappointment on this score, as the electoral laws appear to leave the United Australia Party name off limits to him and anyone else for the remainder of the parliamentary term. Babet will continue to be identified as a Senator for the party for parliamentary purposes, which do not relate to the Australian Electoral Commission’s party registration process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. nathsays:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 6:10 pm
    Just got back from spending a few days in a Victorian hospital. There was some delays because of staff shortages but I can report that the tents are for staff tea rooms, not for patients, and they are all doing a great job.
    _____________________
    Did you roll with the punches ?

  2. The Liberals are mad to concentrate on Health. No one will be buying it. They could have focused on debt, that might have been one area for advance. Or Crown Casino, but on that score they have just as bad a record as Labor.

    The Liberals should be in a position to go close this year, but they won’t, because so many of them are known to the public as fringe lunatics.

  3. Doubtless the Age and Matthew will be harping about this story for as long as possible.

    Premier ‘very sorry’ as minister’s gaffe threatens to overshadow health debate

    Daniel Andrews has personally apologised after one of his senior ministers suggested a cancer patient who had to travel interstate for a scan should “roll with the punches”.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/premier-very-sorry-after-cancer-patient-told-roll-with-the-punches-20220915-p5bi7j.html

  4. Rex Douglas at 4.14 pm

    That Mornington poll has a reasonable size but the results are ambiguous, and could be read another way. Dr Monique Ryan won’t be on the ballot paper, and even though she might well publicly endorse Dr Larder, what the poll reveals is a limited knowledge of Dr Larder currently among those who might be well disposed to vote for her. While Samaras claims Dr Larder is tracking similar to Dr Ryan, that is yet to be demonstrated. Dr Ryan benefitted from many things, including her opponent’s pompous incredulity about her. Given the donation limits, real on the ground effort will be very important.

  5. The Pentecostal takeover of the Vic Libs will boost the Vic crossbench numbers which will hold Vic Labor Govt to account better than the Vic Libs ever will.

  6. “ That minister is a heartless grub that deserves to roll with the punches out of the parliament on election day.”

    That “heartless minister” nursed her husband on and off for 20 years before cancer finally took him. Knowing her, as I do, I am dam sure she was trying to be emphatic, based on her own lived experience.

    The reality is, for folk suffering from chronic illnesses, and for their families, they do have to roll with the punches, regardless of how good the health system is.

  7. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:17 pm

    “ That minister is a heartless grub that deserves to roll with the punches out of the parliament on election day.”

    That “heartless minister” nursed her husband on and off for 20 years before cancer finally took him. Knowing her, as I do, I am dam sure she was trying to be emphatic, based on her own lived experience.

    The reality is, for folk suffering from chronic illnesses, and for their families, they do have to roll with the punches, regardless of how good the health system is.
    —————————–
    The heartless grub should have known better.

  8. What we all should know by now is that the corporate MSM will paint everything that is said by socialist Andrews and his team in the worst possible context.

  9. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:10 pm

    That minister is a heartless grub that deserves to roll with the punches out of the parliament on election day.
    ______
    Bad mistake. But the bigger issue is why there are only 4 MRI machines in Victoria. That seems very low. My superficial research tells me that Japan has the highest per capita amount of MRI machines at 51 per million. Victoria at less than 1 per million seems problematic to say the least.

  10. nath: Good to see you’ve escaped.

    BW: Grattan’s argument is simplistic (thanks for posting), if the first referendum fails then the second is unlikely to succeed. But it’s probably correct, given how both referendums are deeply emotional, having to do with Australia maturing as a nation. Even though they are separate issues, that emotional connection makes them easily conflated and potentially confusing, leading to both being rejected if held together, and the second’s success to depend on the first. I think Albanese is right to focus on one at a time.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:24 pm

    “ The heartless grub should have known better.”

    Give yourself and upper cut. then repeat.
    ———————-
    You can tell your mate to f-off out of parliament.

  12. Do I roll with the punches on PB?
    Trying to. 🙂
    But some people on PB are real experts I would say. I sometimes admire them for that.

  13. “ I am so over this country’s politicians. They are useless and hopeless.”

    Well, you’re pretty feckless. So, I’d say you deserve … I dunno … a Guy Newton LNP Government perhaps.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:27 pm

    “ You can tell your mate to f-off out of parliament.”

    Nunt. As in not even a …
    ———————-
    You are the standards you walk past and her actions were typical of an arrogant political class.

  15. “ You are the standards you walk past and her actions were typical of an arrogant political class.”

    Take a look in the mirror, sport.

  16. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:31 pm

    “ You are the standards you walk past and her actions were typical of an arrogant political class.”

    Take a look in the mirror, sport.
    —————————
    I’m not a politician and arrogant like that heartless grub is.

  17. wranslide says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:35 pm

    Mexicanbeemer who is a grub?
    —————
    Natalie Hutchins.

    Sure she apoloigised but its not good enough for someone with some experience.

  18. “ I’m not a politician or arrogant like that heartless grub is.”

    FIGJAM.

    This is what Natalie Hutchins later said (and before you went all sanctimonious Savonarola on her arse):

    “ Having been through the pain and uncertainty of fighting cancer with my late husband Steve, I know how distressing and anxious this time is for the Hennessy family,” Hutchins said.
    “I understand this may have caused some distress and I am sorry that this has happened.”

  19. If you had any experience with caring for someone with cancer … or other chronic illness … Beemer … you’d actually know the truth behind the phrase ‘roll with the punches’. It’s an actual lived experience, you feckless nunt. It is EXACTLY the lived experience I witnessed Natalie struggle with. It is EXACTLY the lived experience of my family NOW. … as we wait SIX months for for my grand daughter’s overdue MRI.

  20. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:38 pm

    “ I’m not a politician or arrogant like that heartless grub is.”

    FIGJAM.

    This is what Natalie Hutchins later said (and before you went all sanctimonious Savonarola on her arse):

    “ Having been through the pain and uncertainty of fighting cancer with my late husband Steve, I know how distressing and anxious this time is for the Hennessy family,” Hutchins said.
    “I understand this may have caused some distress and I am sorry that this has happened.”
    —————————–
    Sure she said sorry but she is the minister for women in a government that prides itself on understanding women and carers and mistakes do happen but the grub said she didn’t know the details and that’s all she had to say.

  21. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    It is EXACTLY the lived experience of my family NOW. … as we wait SIX months for for my grand daughter’s overdue MRI.
    ______
    That is utterly horrible AE.

  22. Boerwar says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 6:43 pm
    Quite an interesting analysis of the prospects for a Republic by Grattan. Note that she ties success for a republic to success for the Voice.

    The Voice is a less problematic ask than the replacement of the Monarchy by a Republican order.

    The Republicans are divided on the fundamentals: on how to elect/choose/appoint and/or remove a Head of State; on the powers they should have; and on the respective powers and terms of the two Legislative Houses. Unless these matters can be resolved, there’s just no chance of a Republic being established.

    Is there an appetite for constitutional reform? That remains to be seen. Without bi-partisan support, neither are likely to pass.

  23. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 8:45 pm

    If you had any experience with caring for someone with cancer … or other chronic illness … Beemer … you’d actually know the truth behind the phrase ‘roll with the punches’. It’s an actual lived experience, you feckless nunt. It is EXACTLY the lived experience I witnessed Natalie struggle with. It is EXACTLY the lived experience of my family NOW. … as we wait SIX months for for my grand daughter’s overdue MRI.
    ———————–
    I hope it all works out well for your grand daughter but there’s no reason to get nasty in defense of that heartless grub when she is part of the government that could make the system better.

  24. nath says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 6:10 pm
    Just got back from spending a few days in a Victorian hospital. There was some delays because of staff shortages but I can report that the tents are for staff tea rooms, not for patients, and they are all doing a great job.
    中华人民共和国
    Hey cobber good to see you back. Ridgey Didge lots of nice things said about you here digger. Hope your on the mend.

    You and all the cobbers be safe. I won’t be online tonight as I am traveling.

    BTW earlier

    LOL – Taylormade

    Smell youse all later.

  25. Getting an MRI is easy and quick enough.

    I can go and book an MRI from my local imaging centre with no wait time at all.

    It will just cost a lot more than if you wait to get an MRI from a public hospital, which is much cheaper or fully covered by medicare.

    The same applies to getting a colonscopy or gastroscopy.

  26. Four foreign correspondents (Germany, Spain, Italy, Austria) look at Britain as it mourns its dead Queen with outside eyes.

    Correction: more exactly, as it mourns its past. And looking at the endless stream of people, with few over 50 or 60 (although the long wait would weed many out), it’s hard not to think they are mourning a future they thought they were born into, led to believe would continue, forever, like the Monarch, who didn’t, and now they stand and bow their heads, many resolutely stoic, some weeping.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/16/when-mourning-ends-reality-will-hit-hard-european-journalists-on-britains-mood

  27. The number of MRI’s is managed by the federal government but the frustrating thing for people on waiting lists is that they know that many delayed are caused by how the system is run and know the government is off doing other stuff.

  28. habby says:
    Friday, September 16, 2022 at 9:05 pm

    There appears to be over 80 MRI units in Victoria!!
    ________
    From what my limited understanding is, most of them are fMRI. Which do less than MRI, maybe. There are also seems to be a wide variety in the strength of MRI machines. Some are behemoths of imaging, but many others less so. Probably need a radiologist to make sense of it all.

  29. And the warming of Franco-Australian relations took concrete form in July, after his meeting with President Macron. On this occasion, it was decided to reset the meters and start again on a new basis.

    President Macron even took the opportunity to propose supplying four submarines to Australia. These would be built in Cherbourg and not in Adelaide, as was to be the case for the twelve Barracuda class submarines.

    What is really going on, given that Naval Group is already busy building the Suffren class SSNs in Cherbourg while preparing the 3rd generation SSBN program? We should probably know more in November if Mr. Macron confirms the official trip he has planned to make to Australia.

    https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/september/12202-france-offers-four-submarines-to-australia-despite-the-stab-in-the-back-of-aukus.html

  30. nath

    Ah. This was a functional mri machine which is different to a regular one.

    —–
    Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas said a breakdown in communication meant Ms Hennessy was not made aware there were other machines available in the state, after machines at The Alfred and Royal Melbourne Hospital were not working.

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