Essential Research and Morning Consult leadership ratings and more (open thread)

No signs of Anthony Albanese’s stock of goodwill depleting, plus further poll results on Morrison’s ministries and a federal integrity commission.

Essential Research continues its fortnightly polling series minus voting intention or numbers for Peter Dutton when it conducts its monthly leadership ratings, as it has done in the current poll. These record Anthony Albanese returning to his post-election peak on approval at 59%, up four, with disapproval down three to 25%. A monthly question on whether Australia is headed in the right direction is likewise back to where it was in the post-election result with a five point gain to 48%, with a two-point drop in wrong direction to 29%.

Further questions cover the Scott Morrison ministries saga, which find 51% believe the former Prime Minister should resign from parliament compared with 25% who disagree; 59% agree that the reputation of his government has been diminished, with 19% disagreeing; and 59% believe he should appear at the inquiry into the matter, with 18% disagreeing. Support for a federal integrity commission is at 76%, down two from October last year, with opposition up four to 15%. Further questions cover the powers such an institution should have, trust in health authorities, police, the justice system and federal parliament and the salience of state politics issues, and can be found in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1070.


• The tracking poll of international leaders’ personal ratings conducted by US firm Morning Consult continues to record no significant change for Anthony Albanese, who ended August on 58% approval and 28% disapproval, both up one on the end of July. The numbers from this series combine results of polling conducted over seven days from a sample of around 1000.

• In a report on kickboxer-turned-misogynist internet celebrity Andrew Tate, Benjamin Clark of Crikey highlights data from the Australian Cooperative Election Study showing that while younger women are more likely than older women to agree that more needs to be done to achieve gender equality (76.5% among those aged 18 to 34 compared with 58.4% among those 65 and over), the opposite is true of men (30.1% among the youngest cohort rising to 40.4% among the oldest). The 18-to-34 cohort was also the only one in which a significant gender distinction was observed on what I take to be the two-party preferred vote, with 67.5% of young women favouring Labor compared with 60.3% for men. Also featured is Gallup data from the United States showing young women have become markedly more likely to identify as liberal over the past decade (from 30% to nearly 45%) whereas the rate for men has remained steady at around 25%.

• An international survey by US concern Pew Research on “global threats and international co-operation” found Australia with the second biggest gap out of 14 countries between those on the political left and right with respect to the threat posed by climate change, respectively identified as a major threat by 91% and 47%. Far ahead of the rest in this respect was the United States, where only 22% of those on the right rated climate change a major threat compared with 85% on the left.

• The final score from the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay was 1844 (52.6%) for Labor candidate Brent Potter and 1662 (47.4%) for Country Liberals candidate Ben Hosking, a swing against Labor of 7.0%. Next cabs off the by-election rank are the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on Saturday, which is being contested by both Labor and Liberal, and the Western Australian seat of North West Central next week, to be contested by the Nationals and the Liberals with Labor sitting it out.

• I’ll be conducting an online seminar as part of the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy’s Curtin Corner series from 6pm on Friday eastern standard time, specifically exploring the issue of where all the major party voters are going/have gone. You can register for live participation here, and a video will be posted after the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “Essential Research and Morning Consult leadership ratings and more (open thread)”

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  1. It is time we as the citizenry need to start talking about the kind of republic we want, not whether we want one.

    I, for one, do not want a popularly eclected President. I do not want the title ‘President’, at all.

    After seeing the crazy mess Presidental elections threw up with Donal Drump, and other places where a presidency lead to chaos, I want a different system.

    I envisage a Chief Officer, chosen by a majority of both houses of parliament and with very narrow powers. The role should not be more important than that of the Prime Minister. Maybe we could have a panel of three Democracy Officers, with each taking the role for Chief DO for half a year at a time.

    I see trouble in moving to a Presidental system after seeing the influence of the Murdoch media and how Democracy can be compromised by an enthralled, terrified electorate. Mainly I want to make this role limited in power and as non-partisan as possible.

    PLus the idea of rounds of Presidential elections taking up time, energy and money seems a waste for little gain.

  2. My parents were torturers. They got to sleep in on a Sunday morning but I was woken up by the Sunday School teacher, who would knock on my bedroom window, to go to 8am Mass. 😀

  3. Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #1787 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 7:29 pm

    If you are into true crime I can highly recommend an Australian channel that does an excellent job.
    Casefile podcast.
    He does Australian and overseas cases, historical and modern. He is an anonymous host and none of us followers want to know who he is. We speculate on which state he is in. We call him Casey.
    He has an even voice, not given to dramatics or emotion which makes listening much easier,
    Casey started out in his spare room with basic equipment but gained a following and now with over 250 podcasts has a full setup including overseas researchers.

    While murder is the main focus he does other crimes including a brilliant series on cyber-crime on the Dark Net.
    I recomment it.

    Thanks Puff

    I’ll have a look; still can’t believe some of the gruesome stuff that’s been exacted here (in Australia), despite accepting the crap out of USA.

    Haven’t quite forgiven you for thinking I’d “dropped off my perch” without any misgiving.

  4. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:45 pm

    I’m old enough to have actually used an inkwell, but for school, not for signing documents if State…
    I used to make my own Air Rifle Pellets from a mould using the lead from lead head nails (maybe I have lead poisoning). I had a thriving trade with the other kids and used to make a tidy sum to buy cream horns, match sticks and sausage rolls when the Pie Van came to School. The old ink well in the desk was a great spot to hide the said pellets making for easy distribution.

  5. Steve777 @ #1802 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 7:45 pm

    I’m old enough to have actually used an inkwell, but for school, not for signing documents if State…

    Me too. With accompanying blotting paper. I’m pretty sure it was Year 9 when inkwells were phased out.

    I still laugh about “pen licences” my younger siblings were subjected to. You know, new-fangled fountain pens, when we had to wrestle with nib and ink.

  6. Thats nice of him…

    “Russian President Vladimir Putin wished King Charles well after the Accession Council Ceremony, becoming one of the first world leaders to do so.

    Putin issued a two sentence statement from the Kremlin on Saturday that read:

    “Please accept my sincere sincere congratulations on Your Accession to the throne.” The note was posted online by the Russian Embassy to the UK.”

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:04 pm

    The thing that I have noticed is that my kids, when they write, with pen and paper, print. They don’t have a clue about cursive writing.
    Is that running writing Cat?

  8. “Please accept my sincere sincere congratulations on Your Accession to the throne. Imitation being the sincerest form of flattery, please be advised that I am trying to set up the same family scam in Russia. Do you think there is a conceptual crossover between anarchic nepotism and a born-to-rule accident of birth? Any advice appreciated. “

  9. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:08 pm

    Mercedes Benz roolz:
    Yeah I saw that, but the sympathies do run in the family.

  10. Mavis at 7.24

    Snappy Tom:

    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:04 pm

    I acknowledge your premise, though there’s scant evidence to implicate the Queen in “The Dismissal”; the now King, yes, but at 27, he was still wet between the ears, having next to nothing influence. I must away.

    Do you really think the Monarch would NOT be aware of the possibility of her Representative dismissing a govt? And, if she was aware, that the Dismissal would’ve been carried out if she disapproved?

    Most likely scenario: she knew and approved.

  11. puffytmd @ #1799 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 7:45 pm

    After seeing the crazy mess Presidental elections threw up with Donal Drump, and other places where a presidency lead to chaos, I want a different system.

    Australia has:

    1. Compulsory voting
    2. Preferential voting
    3. No Electoral College

    It is a different system than what gave the US Trump. Probably any one of those things would have been enough to stop Trump from “winning” in 2016 (or ever).

  12. Former Attorney General William Barr has emerged as one of the most prominent conservatives to suggest former President Trump may be in serious legal jeopardy over his handling of sensitive materials, underscoring the growing divide between the former president and his onetime staunch ally.

    Barr has become a regular presence on Fox News over the past few weeks, weighing in on the FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and subsequent court battles over what the Department of Justice (DOJ) can do with what it found.

    It’s not the first time Barr, a frequent target of criticism from Democrats as attorney general, has broken with Trump. Nor is he the first former Trump Cabinet member to become critical of the former president.

    But he has stood out recently for his willingness to undercut not just Trump’s own defense but the preferred narrative of Trump’s allies and wide swaths of the Republican Party.

    “Bill Barr has been a real law and order kind of guy and has been strongly protective of national security interests and Department of Justice interests,” said Alan Morrison, a law professor at George Washington University.

    “And I think he’s always seen himself as being on that side: Tough on people who violate criminal laws, and I think his remarks here are in keeping with that. He’s trying to protect the Justice Department, which he headed not once but twice,” Morrison said.

  13. The BBC commentary is disappointing.

    Two of the three commentators are Scottish yet SFA about the countryside and small towns on my screen.

  14. puffytmd at 7.45ish re ‘what kind of republic’?…

    Like others, I believe we have pro-democracy differences with the Failed States whether we have a ‘president’ or not.

    I see no need for an individual Head of State. I believe the Chief Justice of the High Court can swear in Ministers etc.

    I believe Constitutional amendments can be made so that Parliament knows the circumstances under which a govt fails (e.g. the House passes a ‘no confidence’ motion) and what then happens (in the case of ‘no confidence,’ an election within a certain number of days.)

    Of course the Coalition, the only side of politics to benefit from vice-regal interventions over against the democratically-expressed will of the people, can be expected to fight such changes tooth and nail.

    My fall-back position is an Irish-style President.

  15. My Republic Model is a rotating Presidency.

    The Captain of Australias’ Male Test Cricket Team would do one year then the Female Captain the next year. So on and so forth. If he/she is dropped, retires dies etc then the incoming Skipper takes over.

    If there is a consitutional crisis and the Skipper is on tour or out in the middle then the crisis must wait.

    Would save a heap of coin election and administration wise. My model for what its’ worth and I think fits neatly with the Australian way of life.

  16. Snappy Tom at 11.32 am

    Your paras below contain assumptions and assertions. What is your evidence for them?

    “One thing that can defeat a ‘conventional’ Porcupine is a nuclear threat. What if a nuclear aggressor threatens Australia – as Russia is threatening/attacking Ukraine? (If Ukraine kept Soviet-era nukes, Putin doesn’t invade.) What if US support is unreliable – we can’t rely on Democrats winning for our nuclear umbrella, can we?

    We either need a nuclear partner (US or France most likely) bound to us with a NATO-level of commitment (‘an attack on one is an attack on all’) OR our own nuclear weapons.”

    Here are some partly empirical and partly hypothetical questions:

    1. Name one instance since 1945 when a nuclear power has coerced another state by using only a threat of nuclear attack. Specify who coerced whom and how.

    Hint: there is no case of such a threat involving Australia, separate from the different scenario of a hypothetical nuclear war, i.e. an attack on Pine Gap during such a war.

    2. When, if ever, did Putin threaten a nuclear attack on Ukraine effectively as a means of coercion? A sufficient answer requires more than a mere reference to claims by Putin or his sycophant Medvedev that Russia might use nuclear weapons, implicitly to stop itself from losing Putin’s war. Why did Putin resort to a disastrous war (that is disastrous for Russia, and catastrophic for Ukraine) if he could, hypothetically, have achieved some desired political outcome by threatening a nuclear attack on Ukraine?

    There was much simplistic speculation early in Putin’s war, including by Stan Grant, about how Putin had imposed his will because of his willingness to speculate about using nuclear weapons. Those who purveyed such nonsense are unlikely to recant, but it should be obvious fairly soon that the non-nuclear state (Ukraine) has the upper hand against the nuclear state (Russia), and not due to any “extended deterrence”.

    3. Why do you presume the only way of stopping Ukraine from being invaded by Putin was for Ukraine to thumb its nose at the world, by keeping nuclear weapons and thus rejecting the obligations of being a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty? Do you agree with Ken Waltz that international security depends on nuclear weapons, so that the more states with nuclear weapons the better (including North Korea etc)?

    4. Engage in some fanciful and ahistorical geopolitical speculation, by presuming that there is a state (in the current situation under the NPT, not in a Waltzian world) with nuclear weapons that wants to conquer Australia (in fact there is no such state, nor is one likely to appear in the foreseeable future). Then suppose Albo (still PM) forms an alliance with Macron’s successor(s), not a mere consultative alliance like ANZUS but something involving mutual security obligations. Now, do you really think that there will be a “nuclear umbrella” protecting Australia, i.e. that France would sacrifice any French cities by threatening a nuclear attack on the putative aggressor state in order to stop that aggressor state from either coercing or attacking Australia? If so, why?

    The last point was pondered seriously by Kissinger in the 1970s. He came to the fairly obvious conclusion that there is no purpose is supposed nuclear superiority, and that it would not really be in the interests of the US to sacrifice any US cities merely to protect Western Europe from a hypothetical Russian attack, because that road leads to doom.

    There is a lot of literature on all these questions, but just take Qn 1. The history of US foreign policy post-1945 has many cases of attempted coercion but few real ones that involve threatened use of military force rather than economic force, which is different. The difference was apparent regarding East Timor 23 years ago. The US threat made to Indonesia, delivered by a senior US military man, was to cut off all World Bank loans. That forced the Indonesian government to accept East Timorese independence. There have been many cases of the US using military force since 1945, but cases of the US coercing another state with force, especially with nuclear weapons, are hard to find.

    Take one case: the 1990s was the era of US “primacy”. Milosevic’s Serbia was involved in two wars, the first against Bosnia (mainly) and Croatia (partly) in the early 1990s. How was the war stopped? Not by Clinton threatening to bomb Belgrade with nuclear weapons, but by negotiations in the US, including the war criminal Milosevic. The 1999 war over Kosovo was different, because Kosovo had been recognised legally as part of Serbia. Various justifications were given for the NATO attack on Serbia but it did not conform to international law as then understood. How did the Kosovo war end, after 78 days of NATO bombing, with the NATO coalition starting to fracture? Not as a result of US coercion of Serbia with nuclear weapons, but because of Russian mediation, with the Russian mediator, former PM Chernomyrdin, persuading Milosevic to concede.

    For the revised edition of a classic study of coercion in US foreign policy see:

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:37 pm

    Oopnorth (we’re all a little Scottish tonight )
    Yes, cursive writing is running writing.
    Thank you wee bonny lass. Actually I just tried running writing to show my daugther. She wasn’t impressed

  18. “Australia has:

    1. Compulsory voting
    2. Preferential voting
    3. No Electoral College

    It is a different system than what gave the US Trump. Probably any one of those things would have been enough to stop Trump from “winning” in 2016 (or ever).”

    We also have managed to avoid the worst of the US legal system (their is very little justice involved) the Supreme Court stealing the presidency for Bush, and putting in the hard yards to ensure corruption (campaign finance) and whiteness thrives (declaring racism over, cooperating with malapportionment and voter supression), like Trump is bad but the conservative racist morons on their supreme court are 10000 times more corrupt and damaging.

    At the end of the day you either believe in democracy or you don’t, and if you are scared of a presidency because voters you don’t believe in democracy, and you have a hideous level of ignorance when it comes to our current system.

  19. ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:50 pm

    Interesting discussion on the Monarch and Scotland – not King or Queen of Scotland, but of Scots (Mary, Queen of).
    The last Queen of the Scots? Time will tell.

  20. Boerwar

    “Since her death on Thursday, American commentators, academics, and a former US diplomat, among others, took to social media and elsewhere to call for fully wrestling with the British monarchy’s lasting influence in light of the monarch’s death.”

    Yes the British Empire, like all empires was tawdry but what gives the “Americans” the right to throw stones?

    The 13 Yankee colonies, with the decisive support of the French empire, established their own slave owning imperial state and proceeded to conquer everything that they could in North and central America, the Caribbean, the western Pacific.

    “American academics” are like “American Justices”, oxymorons.

  21. Dr Doolittle at 8.46

    If nukes are so useless, why do nations have them and invest so much in them?

    Also, are you going to argue the US’ scuppering of provision of ex-Soviet jet fighters to Ukraine WASN’T influenced by Putin’s nuclear threats?

    Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty by treaty. Would Ukraine surrender ex-Soviet nukes without guarantees?

    List instances of a nuclear-armed state invading another nuclear-armed state.

  22. It is amazing how far from a US democracy we are now, despite many of our features originating there.

    There are TV ads here in SA encouraging different minority groups to get enroled, informed and involved in upcoming council elections… in particular they are having workshops for minority groups to help them get elected to local councils.
    How far is this from the voter disenfranchisement happing in the US!

  23. There should be two referendums on the republic next term:

    First referendum (a year after re-election), Everything stays the same and the Governor General becomes the official Head of State, and the Prime Minister chooses them as what happens now

    Second referendum (2-2.5 years after re-election) Have a Constitutional Convention for a Directly elected Model republic with a Governor General or President


  24. Dr Doolittle 8.39

    Thanks for your comments on the folly of nuclear weapon programs, which I agree with you. Add to that the obvious proliferation risk among other SE asian nations if Australia had them. The risk of starting a nuclear arms race in our own backyard would be far worse.

    Another issue is the sheer cost of nuclear weapons programs, which make SSNs look cheap. One ex RN admiral is on the record of arguing against the RAN replacing the Trident SSBN program. For less than the cost of the (4) SSBNs, they could have doubled the size of their conventionally armed SSN fleet, which he felt would do all the fighting in a real war in any case.

    Nuke enthusiasts are the lunatic fringe of the defence establishment. They have been since the days of General Jack Ripper.

  25. My inkwell story in grades 5 & 6:

    Our ink was made by mixing powder in water and kept in a large bottle with a rubber spout. Filling the tiny inkwell meant a lot of ink on the desk and fingers, although it seemed to wash off OK. Blotting paper soaked in ink and flicked with a ruler (when the teacher was absent) stuck quite nicely to the ceiling.

  26. Upnorthsays:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:59 pm
    Has Newspoll been suspened for the Mourning?
    I hope your daughter is a better speller than you.

  27. Upnorth: Newspoll only coming out once a month or so and the last one was only last week. Its 2 & 1/2 years to the election so what’s the need anyway.

  28. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 9:29 pm

    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:59 pm
    Has Newspoll been suspened for the Mourning?
    I hope your daughter is a better speller than you.
    LOL Taylormade

  29. Absolutely crazy; over ten Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles abandoned in Kharkiv. The oak leaves emblem of the supposedly elite 4th Guards “Kantemirovskaya” Tank Division can be seen on the turret of an abandoned T-80U..

    Belarus: Lukashenko: “God sees that this quarrel was not worth it”. And he’s ready to return his ambassador to Kyiv.

  30. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 9:29 pm

    Upnorth: Newspoll only coming out once a month or so and the last one was only last week. Its 2 & 1/2 years to the election so what’s the need anyway.
    Only Jan gets’ my humour here, and she has gone and changed her name.

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