Essential Research and Morning Consult leadership ratings and more (open thread)

No signs of Anthony Albanese’s stock of goodwill depleting, plus further poll results on Morrison’s ministries and a federal integrity commission.

Essential Research continues its fortnightly polling series minus voting intention or numbers for Peter Dutton when it conducts its monthly leadership ratings, as it has done in the current poll. These record Anthony Albanese returning to his post-election peak on approval at 59%, up four, with disapproval down three to 25%. A monthly question on whether Australia is headed in the right direction is likewise back to where it was in the post-election result with a five point gain to 48%, with a two-point drop in wrong direction to 29%.

Further questions cover the Scott Morrison ministries saga, which find 51% believe the former Prime Minister should resign from parliament compared with 25% who disagree; 59% agree that the reputation of his government has been diminished, with 19% disagreeing; and 59% believe he should appear at the inquiry into the matter, with 18% disagreeing. Support for a federal integrity commission is at 76%, down two from October last year, with opposition up four to 15%. Further questions cover the powers such an institution should have, trust in health authorities, police, the justice system and federal parliament and the salience of state politics issues, and can be found in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1070.

Further:

• The tracking poll of international leaders’ personal ratings conducted by US firm Morning Consult continues to record no significant change for Anthony Albanese, who ended August on 58% approval and 28% disapproval, both up one on the end of July. The numbers from this series combine results of polling conducted over seven days from a sample of around 1000.

• In a report on kickboxer-turned-misogynist internet celebrity Andrew Tate, Benjamin Clark of Crikey highlights data from the Australian Cooperative Election Study showing that while younger women are more likely than older women to agree that more needs to be done to achieve gender equality (76.5% among those aged 18 to 34 compared with 58.4% among those 65 and over), the opposite is true of men (30.1% among the youngest cohort rising to 40.4% among the oldest). The 18-to-34 cohort was also the only one in which a significant gender distinction was observed on what I take to be the two-party preferred vote, with 67.5% of young women favouring Labor compared with 60.3% for men. Also featured is Gallup data from the United States showing young women have become markedly more likely to identify as liberal over the past decade (from 30% to nearly 45%) whereas the rate for men has remained steady at around 25%.

• An international survey by US concern Pew Research on “global threats and international co-operation” found Australia with the second biggest gap out of 14 countries between those on the political left and right with respect to the threat posed by climate change, respectively identified as a major threat by 91% and 47%. Far ahead of the rest in this respect was the United States, where only 22% of those on the right rated climate change a major threat compared with 85% on the left.

• The final score from the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay was 1844 (52.6%) for Labor candidate Brent Potter and 1662 (47.4%) for Country Liberals candidate Ben Hosking, a swing against Labor of 7.0%. Next cabs off the by-election rank are the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on Saturday, which is being contested by both Labor and Liberal, and the Western Australian seat of North West Central next week, to be contested by the Nationals and the Liberals with Labor sitting it out.

• I’ll be conducting an online seminar as part of the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy’s Curtin Corner series from 6pm on Friday eastern standard time, specifically exploring the issue of where all the major party voters are going/have gone. You can register for live participation here, and a video will be posted after the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “Essential Research and Morning Consult leadership ratings and more (open thread)”

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  1. Finally we get onto an earthquake in PNG and a beach emergency in Sydney, the only two news stories apart from the queen, the proclamation, some guff about William and Harry and their wives and the public holiday before moving to sport.

  2. Upnorth @ #1741 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 6:28 pm

    kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:23 pm

    As for AFL I went to watch a match once. The bastards couldn’t tackle for love or money. Me and me mate procured a bottle of Bundy and downed it to help numb the boredom. It’s probably a sport better watched on TV.

    Reminds me of my late brother-in-law. He’d never played a game of Basketball (Men’s Rules) but was recruited into a basketball team. He was a local AFL defender. When he rose above the pack to “mark” an incoming ball, with his knees firmly in the back of his opponent, he couldn’t understand why he’d “fouled.”

    Looks like it’s different strokes for different folks.

  3. A clean and four fillings from my family dentist in HCMC this week. $110 for 2 hours work. About half the air fare saved. Last time had a root canal which saved most of the fare. Just need to learn a few words like open, shut, bite. And take a dental chart with the required work marked down.

  4. Jan if you get to Bangkok on your travels it’s probably best to avoid me. Though Mrs Upnorth is Ace with Tucker, Shopping and Culture.

    I will keep that in mind.

  5. Snappy Tom says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:17 pm

    Rex at 5.04

    Australia has proclaimed King Charles III as the new head of state.

    I see Shorten positioned himself directly behind Albanese…
    ____________

    Did you include the photo so we could play “spot the dagger”?
    ____________________________

    Ah but has he got the leadership baton ticked in his knapsack just out of view

  6. @OC:

    “A_E do you not find it strange that the Libs are now the Rugga League Party?
    (Although I think this is artificial- the Libs really are Rah Rahs and just put on a show)”

    ________

    Complete Cos-playing cvnts.

    Although the ICE Uber Ute loving tradie class and property developer class (I reckon an antipodean version of feudal Japanese Daimyo-Samurai relationships) loves the NRL, gambling and the Liberal Party in equal measure.

    Go Sharkies!

  7. Well, time to settle in and watch the tour as it’s about to begin.

    Elizabeth timed her departure perfectly.

    She was at her favourite place on earth at the end of summer.

    Another long dreary winter about to set in…

    Enough is enough she said.

  8. The grimace of the King when signing a Proclamation instrument was classic: “Get rid of that extra inkwell or I’ll throw it at you.” He then suddenly realised that for the first time, the ceremony was being televised. I’d give him some leeway however as losing one’s mother and then undertaking a new job for life would be somewhat stressful – more so at his age, where most are putting their feet up.

    __________________________________________

    Albanese has shown very sound judgment by ruling out a referendum on a republic during his first term. It’s far better to go to the next election with it, by which time the death of the Queen will be a distant memory. I get the feeling, based purely on empirical evidence, that there’s a good deal of respect for the Queen, even among staunch republicans. Anyway, I’m off to watch her coffin being transported from Balmoral to Aberdeen.

  9. Mavis says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:54 pm

    Anyway, I off to watch her coffin being transported from Balmoral to Aberdeen.
    中华人民共和国
    Mavis did fly to Scotland especially for the purpose or are you there on other business?

  10. Snappy Tom @ #1734 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 6:17 pm

    Rex at 5.04

    Australia has proclaimed King Charles III as the new head of state.

    I see Shorten positioned himself directly behind Albanese…
    ____________

    Did you include the photo so we could play “spot the dagger”?

    As Night King reaches for his Valyrian steel, Sally McManus swoops in from the side and shatters him… Albanese is saved ..!

  11. AFL, Rugby whatever. Depends on your cultural heritage. Insulting another persons sporting culture is akin to saying somebody elses god sucks.

    unless they like soccer or NFL of course because they are just dead boring

  12. Bryon says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:58 pm

    AFL, Rugby whatever. Depends on your cultural heritage. Insulting another persons sporting culture is akin to saying somebody elses god sucks.

    unless they like soccer or NFL of course because they are just dead boring
    中华人民共和国
    Mea Maxima Culpa

  13. I am not following anything royal but I am always checking for news about Ukraine.

    The Ukraine Army hs is having outstanding success in their counter-offensive. This is another youtube channel I follow. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bihU0FLH9To

    this vid has a good moving map of the gains by the UA at about 3 minutes in and vids of liberated Ukrainians giving watermelons etc to the UA soldiers.\

    I recommend this channel Joe Broke as well as Denys Davydov, and Operator Starsky, (they come up easily in youtube search

    Slava Ukraini

  14. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:02 pm

    Glory, Glory to South Sydney!
    中华人民共和国
    Eastern Sydney Scum – a solid result. C’Mon the Cowboys, C’Mon.

  15. Mavis at 6.54 re ‘respect’ for the late Queen…

    I yearn for this nation to grow up and take responsibility for its own governance by electing our own Head of State.

    I do not have respect for the late Queen, who I am convinced was at least complicit in the Dismissal, but a grudging acknowledgement that her personal popularity among key demographics here made a successful Republic referendum unlikely.

    I continue to believe Turnbull and Keating abjectly failed in not embracing an Irish-style, popularly-elected, largely symbolic President. They gave anti-democratic forces the opportunity to oppose the “politicians’ Republic.”

    I think it is promising that, despite offering a flawed model, the Republic still attracted over 45% YES.

  16. I had rather thought that the War was entering a lengthy stalemate period.

    wRONg.

    The news about Ukraine’s progress is excellent.

  17. Putin needs to learn a very important lesson from Queen Elizabeth II.

    You can be one of the most important people on the planet one day, but an inanimate lump just going to dust the next, just like everyone and everything else.

  18. What we have now is a “Prime Minister’s Governor Generalate”. The Headship of State is effectively the gift of the Prime Minister, even if there is a nominal Head on the other side of the world.

  19. I’ve been an NFL fan for 40 years.

    I’ve realised my fandom was encouraged during the late 1980s when the ABC televised a ‘highlights’ show, hosted by Don Lane. The game looked much better with the stoppages edited out!

    I like the 3D aspect opened up by permitting one forward pass per play. I’m currently trying to figure out how to combine the forward pass dimension with a version of NFL played at rugby league speed.

    I suspect most of the players would have to shed a lot of weight in exchange for aerobic fitness!

    I think my new game should be marketed as ‘Fastball’…

  20. Upnorth:

    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:56 pm

    [‘Mavis did fly to Scotland especially for the purpose or are you there on other business?’]

    I’d certainly be there were it not for viewing “Air Crash Investigations.”
    In lieu, the wife of my deceased best mate is heading for Scotland as I post. I’ve asked her to keep me abreast with developments thereof.

  21. C@tmomma @ #1745 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 6:34 pm

    I’m sorry I have disappointed you, kezza2. I have to admit I fooled myself about David Hurley. I could have sworn I read somewhere that Hurley and Morrison were of similar religion. Just goes to show you should always double check. Especially if people are going to take it as gospel. I tend to forget about that when I say things.
    Don’t worry too much about other things I say wrt QE2 either. Being of Irish heritage, if a long way back, I am not the biggest fan of the British monarchy. I don’t hold your affection for them against you though, if that’s what you meant.

    I still think the overkill has been phenomenal, even if it’s the case for many other things as well.

    Hey C@t

    It’s okay. I’m of Irish heritage too. My parents were Labor until the split. And then DLP under Archbishop Mannix. And then, when we children were old enough, most of us went Labor. And still are. I don’t have any affection for the British royals. I find even saying that an anachronism. But you can’t avoid the fact that we’ve been inundated, over the years, with “who do you like best” of the “family”. Who gives a rats.

    When I said that if the ABC hadn’t run with it, it would have been perceived as the queen’s death was “slighted”, I meant only that, as the national broadcaster, the ABC would have been unmercifully attacked by the the RWNJs as yet another reason to defund it. Besides, with Ita Buttrose at the helm, we should have expected nothing less than a front page, and 50-page spread, and back page, as well. And that’s what we have.

    Fortunately for me, I listen to Radio National at night. I’d been meaning to ask what had happened to RN. It’s constantly on repeat. What gives. Is it to do with ABC cuts. Anyway, at night, except for news on the hour, where the queen’s death was mentioned, it was straight back to repeats of any given day over the past week.

    So, without TV, and with nights with RN, I’ve been lucky to avoid most of it.

    And I’ve been shocked to find how many murders there’s been in Australia (courtesy of youtube) that I knew nothing about.

    Take care. I still luv ya!

  22. Boerwar
    From the first week of this war, I have never doubted that Ukraine would win, provided we gave them the armaments.

    From the moment their President Zelenskii told the USA folk to shove their offer a ride where it fits and give him bullets, I was sure they would prevail. or for Russia to win Putin would have to kill every Ukrainian to the last man and woman.

  23. Feints within feints? The main game is to get Russia to the table and to do that they need Putin to think Crimea is at some level of risk. The Southern axis is of interest. And there is now some twitter posting going on to suggest Ukraine are making some inroads there.

    But an active phase of a war is full of feints and relocating assets and counter offensives. And then wait to see how Putin reacts. Will he throw everything into it? How will that look at home if the kitchen sink ends up at the bottom of the Dnipro?

  24. Mavis says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:12 pm

    Upnorth:

    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:56 pm

    [‘Mavis did fly to Scotland especially for the purpose or are you there on other business?’]

    I’d certainly be there were it not for viewing “Air Crash Investigations.”
    In lieu, the wife of my deceased best mate is heading for Scotland as I post. I’ve asked her to keep me abreast with developments thereof.
    中华人民共和国
    Understood old mate! Having sworn Allegiance to Her Majesty and her Heirs and Successors on a few occassions I am glad you are keeping me abreast.

  25. Upnorth I reckon you’re faking it. You have to get this culpa mumbo jumbo right to be a true Mick. You don’t say mea culps three times; you don’t just lob in a mea maxima culpa.

    It their way or the devil’s way:

    mea culpa,
    mea culpa,
    mea maxima culpa.

    That’s it: a crescendo of guilt, and self-belittlement.

    Through my fault
    Through my fault
    Through my most grievous fault.

    Just the thing for little minds to have bashed into them. How did we escape. You did didn’t you?

  26. You guys are missing the Queen’s coffin procession live on Sky Channel 103. Absolutely riveting television. I know you wouldn’t want to miss it.

  27. Snappy Tom:

    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:04 pm

    I acknowledge your premise, though there’s scant evidence to implicate the Queen in “The Dismissal”; the now King, yes, but at 27, he was still wet between the ears, having next to nothing influence. I must away.

  28. The similarities between NRL and NFL are obvious – no doubt to both developing from Rugby with administrations that wanted to make it more interesting.
    The long delays in NFL are the most off putting and it would be interesting to see the results if some limited off-side was allowed for kicks in NRL

  29. Steve777says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:03 pm

    I don’t think I’ve even seen an ink well since maybe 1959…

    I remember the obsolete hole for the ink well in some of my school desks.

  30. Kezza
    If you are into true crime I can highly recommend an Australian channel that does an excellent job.
    Casefile podcast.
    https://casefilepodcast.com/
    He does Australian and overseas cases, historical and modern. He is an anonymous host and none of us followers want to know who he is. We speculate on which state he is in. We call him Casey.
    He has an even voice, not given to dramatics or emotion which makes listening much easier,
    Casey started out in his spare room with basic equipment but gained a following and now with over 250 podcasts has a full setup including overseas researchers.

    While murder is the main focus he does other crimes including a brilliant series on cyber-crime on the Dark Net.
    I recomment it.

  31. ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:21 pm

    Upnorth I reckon you’re faking it. You have to get this culpa mumbo jumbo right to be a true Mick. You don’t say mea culps three times; you don’t just lob in a mea maxima culpa.
    中华人民共和国
    No I am a ridegy didge Mick. Just Latin was over and done with when I was learning the ropes.

    I remember above the altar at Church the words “Santcus, Sanctus Sanctus”, which must have been painted over after Vatican II, magically reappeared after we had a big Cyclone. I asked Sister Rose what it meant and why it was there. She told me the “old people knew”, so I asked my Nana who I thought was old. She, being a Presbyterian, said she had no idea. Damn confusing.

  32. Upnorth @ #1788 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 7:30 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:21 pm

    Upnorth I reckon you’re faking it. You have to get this culpa mumbo jumbo right to be a true Mick. You don’t say mea culps three times; you don’t just lob in a mea maxima culpa.
    中华人民共和国
    No I am a ridegy didge Mick. Just Latin was over and done with when I was learning the ropes.

    I remember above the altar at Church the words “Santcus, Sanctus Sanctus”, which must have been painted over after Vatican II, magically reappeared after we had a big Cyclone. I asked Sister Rose what it meant and why it was there. She told me the “old people knew”, so I asked my Nana who I thought was old. She, being a Presbyterian, said she had no idea. Damn confusing.

    Sanctus was the week’s tip for the maiden handicap wasn’t it. Go Sanctus.

  33. Upnorthsays:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:19 pm


    中华人民共和国
    Understood old mate! Having sworn Allegiance to Her Majesty and her Heirs and Successors on a few occassions I am glad you are keeping me abreast.

    I’m pretty sure I’ve never had the misfortune. 🙂

  34. Barney in Cherating @ #1785 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 7:27 pm

    Steve777says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:03 pm

    I don’t think I’ve even seen an ink well since maybe 1959…

    I remember the obsolete hole for the ink well in some of my school desks.

    I recall them too, sprouting rulers, pencils and whatever else could be jammed into them, and on occasion useful for pencil sharpenings.

  35. ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:31 pm

    Upnorth @ #1788 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 7:30 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:21 pm

    Upnorth I reckon you’re faking it. You have to get this culpa mumbo jumbo right to be a true Mick. You don’t say mea culps three times; you don’t just lob in a mea maxima culpa.
    中华人民共和国
    No I am a ridegy didge Mick. Just Latin was over and done with when I was learning the ropes.

    I remember above the altar at Church the words “Santcus, Sanctus Sanctus”, which must have been painted over after Vatican II, magically reappeared after we had a big Cyclone. I asked Sister Rose what it meant and why it was there. She told me the “old people knew”, so I asked my Nana who I thought was old. She, being a Presbyterian, said she had no idea. Damn confusing.

    Sanctus was the week’s tip for the maiden handicap wasn’t it. Go Sanctus.
    中华人民共和国
    The great thing about being a Mick is having a Punt and wee Dram are not frowned upon as some other Religious Brands do. However the downside is “sins of the flesh” (again as a youngster this was confusing – we all thought it meant eating cats or dogs as Sister Rose wouldn’t elaborate) – are frowned upon taking away some of the joys of life.

  36. ItzaDream @ #1780 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 7:21 pm

    Upnorth I reckon you’re faking it. You have to get this culpa mumbo jumbo right to be a true Mick. You don’t say mea culps three times; you don’t just lob in a mea maxima culpa.

    It their way or the devil’s way:

    mea culpa,
    mea culpa,
    mea maxima culpa.

    That’s it: a crescendo of guilt, and self-belittlement.

    Through my fault
    Through my fault
    Through my most grievous fault.

    Just the thing for little minds to have bashed into them. How did we escape. You did didn’t you?

    At Cora Lynn primary school, we said “through my most ‘grievious’ fault”

    It didn’t matter how the nuns tried to drum the mispronunciation out of us, we still said grievious instead of grievous.

    And that’s how Latin prevailed in our community.

    mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

  37. Sanctus, Sanctus, Sanctus, Holy Holy Holy
    Dominus Deus Sabaoth. Lord God of Hosts
    Hosanna in excelsis. Hossana in the Highest
    Pleni sunt coeli et terra gloria tua. Heaven and Earth are full of thy glory
    Hosanna in excelsis. Hossana in the Highest

    (My parents had Tridentist tendencies)

  38. Barney in Cherating says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:32 pm

    Upnorthsays:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:19 pm


    中华人民共和国
    Understood old mate! Having sworn Allegiance to Her Majesty and her Heirs and Successors on a few occassions I am glad you are keeping me abreast.

    I’m pretty sure I’ve never had the misfortune.
    中华人民共和国
    Part of the job description cobber – when I told the old man I did it with me fingers crossed, he nearly peed himself laughing.

  39. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:25 pm

    The similarities between NRL and NFL are obvious – no doubt to both developing from Rugby with administrations that wanted to make it more interesting.
    The long delays in NFL are the most off putting and it would be interesting to see the results if some limited off-side was allowed for kicks in NRL

    I remember when the AFL was playing demo games in the US. One of the most common criticisms was that weren’t regular breaks in the play.

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