Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

One item of federal polling news plus confusion over the status of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

I don’t have a huge amount of material off which to hang the new open thread that is now past due, partly because a certain event has crowded other matters out of the media, but mostly because of a threadbare schedule of post-election opinion polling in which this is an off week. All we have on that score is the soon-to-be-superseded Roy Morgan weekly update, which tells us only that its latest voting intention poll comes in at 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor, out from 52-48. This is at the high end of how the Albanese government has been doing from this particular series since it came to office, which has been substantially softer for it than the two results we’ve had from Newspoll and the one from Resolve Strategic.

The only other item of electoral news to relate is the confusing news of the United Australia Party’s self-deregistration. This came as a surprise to the party’s sole Senator, Ralph Babet, with Clive Palmer seemingly unclear as to whether the decision was made on his own initiative or that of the party’s supposedly independent executive committee. Palmer, who if Forbes is to be believed is worth $2.1 billion, told Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail that he wished to spare himself the barely existent expense of maintaining registration, and would re-register the party shortly before the next election, despite not planning to run himself.

However, electoral law maven Graeme Orr told the Age/Herald that he might be in for a disappointment on this score, as the electoral laws appear to leave the United Australia Party name off limits to him and anyone else for the remainder of the parliamentary term. Babet will continue to be identified as a Senator for the party for parliamentary purposes, which do not relate to the Australian Electoral Commission’s party registration process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 31
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  1. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:29 am

    Ok, I will game play it myself
    ——————-
    Another reason why the referendum could fail is to send the trendy crowd a message to not spend all their time on some groups but ignore others.

  2. ”
    Simon Katichsays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 7:42 am
    Run off-road crashes occur primarily on country roads, accounting for about 40 per cent of all road deaths every year, says a new federal government report.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/why-crashes-like-buxton-tragedy-account-for-40-per-cent-of-road-deaths-20220909-p5bgtd.html

    BK, this often leads to a renewed push to remove significant trees from road sides rather than reducing speeds. Often in the name of constructing solid road shoulders (at great expense). Road works are so political; tragic deaths like this understandably resonate but the thought of redcuing a speed limit (adding 5 minutes to a 30min journey) seems impossibly hard yet significant road construction and tree removal is the go-to option.
    ”

    SK
    Before Queen Elizabeth death you might have seen on ABC TV the reporting of horrible car crash in Sydney SW(outside Sydney metropolitan area), where 5 High school children were killed in car accident because the 18 year old driver (who escaped death) crashed car into a tree on a lonely stretch of road.
    My point is I agree with you.

  4. TPOF
    Thorpe represents the official Greens position. She is the Greens spokesperson for this policy area. ATM the officially declared position if the Greens is that a referendum recognizing Indigenous people is …’a complete waste of money.’
    I am not sure about the status of Price with respect to the Liberal Party.
    Indigenous people outside parliament making their views known may be doing so either personally or as the leaders of various Indigenous organisations. There is often a lack of clarity about status and standing.

  5. Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk

    The peak in RBA interest rates is near.
    RBA has approx 50-75bps of hikes to go this cycle with its task helped markedly by what will be a tight budget in October.
    Global & local inflation is also set to fall – look at commodities & supply chain issues.

  6. ”
    Snappy Tomsays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:23 am
    Ven at 10.19

    …He did a Morrison with aplomb.
    ____________

    I think you insult Albo. Until he has himself secretly sworn into sveral ministries and oversees widespread dodgy dealing, he’s nowhere near doing a “Morrison.”
    ”

    ST
    My point on “doing a Morrison” is to point to the fact that like Morrison he would not answer the question and tried to Segway into another topic but he did it with some class unlike Morrison.

  7. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:24 am
    The Establishment has been working on rehabilitating Charles and make Camilla acceptable for yonks. That will be amplified now.
    The reality is that, to the extent it does so, the monarchy is a powerful force for looking backwards, keeping things the same and not rocking the boat.
    Apart from staying schtum, being ultra wealthy, a bit of rule keeping and process work, that is the way it is supposed to work.
    In some ways, like all countries, Britain is mired in and by its past. Brexit was many things and one of those things was an outpouring of the Way We Were.
    IMO, having a 73 year old grumpy old man as Head of State and a retread Queen Consort of no particular skill, ability or character is not what Britain needs right now.
    Factor in Truss and the British leadership swamp is well-crocodiled.
    ”

    Well……..

  8. ”
    Keltasays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:26 am
    Also , i do take issue with Charles saying the WHOLE of the U.K. and might i say the WHOLE of the world are devastated at the passing of the Queen.
    1. many people do not like the Royals at all.
    2. billions of people i suspect don’t know or care about her passing.
    3. many are just trying to find shelter and food.
    4. i also take issue with him claiming authority over me when nobody has asked for my opinion about it .
    I thought i lived in a democracy where we get to decide .
    ”

    Kelta: I thought i lived in a democracy where we get to decide .

    Me: Now you know.
    Jokes aside, like Albanese said today on ABC Breakfast interview, sometimes “Traditions” are more important than “inconveniences” to us.

    https://amp-theage-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theage.com.au/politics/federal/tradition-sometimes-inconvenient-but-important-pm-20220912-p5bhb9.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16629497343275&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com

    From the article:
    “Tradition, I know, sometimes can be inconvenient. But traditions are important. Traditions and protocols are one of the things that bind us together. And I do think that the 22nd September can be a moment that brings our nation together,” Albanese told ABC television on Monday morning, adding Opposition Leader Peter Dutton had added his support for the national day of mourning.

  9. The ugly truth about Alan Joyce

    Qantas, for about half a decade, has benefited one man above everyone else, including customers, staff and even shareholders: chief executive Alan Joyce.
    Now, Joyce’s ascendancy has reached a point where Qantas is losing the natural and lucrative loyalty of the business community.

    Senior, junior, middle-level; the frustration with delayed and cancelled flights, lost luggage and epic call-centre waits extends up and down corporates.

    The unpleasant experiences are so common they’ve become unexceptional. A man charged $500 for a flight he never took, told it had been refunded, when it wasn’t. A mother with a young daughter who took eight hours to get from the Gold Coast to Sydney. Passengers left overnight at Tokyo Airport with no beds, food or water.

    From 2012 to 2020, he was paid $75 million. In the three years after the company’s infamous $2.8 billion 2014 loss, his cash and share-based remuneration was $50 million. In the last two years he got $4.2 million.

    More –
    https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/the-ugly-truth-about-alan-joyce-20220911-p5bh4b

  13. Vensays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:59 am
    ”
    Simon Katichsays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 7:42 am
    Run off-road crashes occur primarily on country roads, accounting for about 40 per cent of all road deaths every year, says a new federal government report.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/why-crashes-like-buxton-tragedy-account-for-40-per-cent-of-road-deaths-20220909-p5bgtd.html

    BK, this often leads to a renewed push to remove significant trees from road sides rather than reducing speeds. Often in the name of constructing solid road shoulders (at great expense). Road works are so political; tragic deaths like this understandably resonate but the thought of redcuing a speed limit (adding 5 minutes to a 30min journey) seems impossibly hard yet significant road construction and tree removal is the go-to option.
    ”

    SK
    Before Queen Elizabeth death you might have seen on ABC TV the reporting of horrible car crash in Sydney SW(outside Sydney metropolitan area), where 5 High school children were killed in car accident because the 18 year old driver (who escaped death) crashed car into a tree on a lonely stretch of road.
    My point is I agree with you.

    ____________________________

    The Victorian Liberals are campaigning non-stop about Mythical “Pot-Holes on country roads”…

    Meanwhile, here is the largest rail infrastructure project that the Liberal Party has delivered in the past 4 decades…

  14. Vensays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 12:20 pm

    ”
    Snappy Tomsays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:23 am
    Ven at 10.19

    …He did a Morrison with aplomb.
    ____________

    I think you insult Albo. Until he has himself secretly sworn into sveral ministries and oversees widespread dodgy dealing, he’s nowhere near doing a “Morrison.”
    ”

    ST
    My point on “doing a Morrison” is to point to the fact that like Morrison he would not answer the question and tried to Segway into another topic but he did it with some class unlike Morrison.

    Albanese is saying these decisions will be made by the appropriate Minister and he’s not aware of what the final decision will be, whilst Morrison’s approach was I don’t want to talk about that because they had no plans to deal with the issue.

  15. We have just had ten years of grey corruption through the way in which press questions were ‘answered’ by the Corruption of Thieves’.
    I do hope that Albanese keeps answering questions directly and honestly.
    Listening to today’s presser it came to me that some members of the MSM have yet to notice the difference.

  16. How fitting its a steam train and by the looks of it they found Frydenberg’s calculator because that track looks less than 2.6 meters well short of 26km.

  22. ”
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:52 am
    @socrates: 10.21am.

    The UCL study does not account for the following facts.

    1. Time is now of the esssence.
    2. UK cannot offer a ‘ready to go’ design. If they could offer a MOST (mostly off the shelf) variant of the Astute, things may be different.
    3. Already the fascination of the ADF and RAN for things that the Brits don’t currently offer as part of their SSN is readily apparent. Past conduct is always a pretty good guide to future performance and the fact that any UK designed and built sub will have to go through a complete design phase would ring the loudest of all loud warning sirens.
    4. The on,y way to get subs fast enough and the government of the day to enforce discipline in the process is if we go with a genuine – mature – MOST proposal. The US wont do that for us. The UK can’t. Leaving only France.
    ”

    A-E
    It was always France A-E, it was always France. That is the reason I said a couple of days after AUKUS deal announcement (with all the razzmatazz) that AUKUS deal was a fraud perpetrated on Australian people.
    It is becoming more and more clear by each day that Morrison wanted to wedge ALP on AUKUS deal and run a khaki election. That clause of 18 months review of the deal after the announcement was a clear giveaway.
    It appears the only thing and the most important thing Morrison did not envisage was the fierce opposition and fury from French President Macron regarding the deal. Macron absolutely trashed Morrison and Australia’s reputation on world stage. Even Biden had to completely distance himself from Morrison and tried to assuage Macron feelings by sending high level team lead by VP Harris and himself being very conciliatory on world stage towards Macron at G20 summit.

  24. TPOF, yes i agree the voice must come first , then begin the Rep process in the next term.
    the masses can’t handle too much at once.
    It has to be sold as an exciting new start for our country..

  26. ”
    Keltasays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:14 am
    Yes Player one , i admit i have never voted LNP in my life ,i have voted Labour , green and indie at different times , but if Labour approve more Coal , oil or gas projects i will never vote for them again..
    ”

    Kelta
    Like AE and others on this blog asked P1 , will you preference ALP above LNP if push comes to shove? 🙂

  27. Alpha Zerosays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 12:39 pm
    The Victorian Liberals are campaigning non-stop about Mythical “Pot-Holes on country roads”…
    _____________________
    Not mythical at all. Drove from Portland to Hamilton on the weekend and it was a friggin nightmare and you can’t really swerve to avoid them when you have a 50 tonne B’Double coming towards you.

  28. ”
    Player Onesays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:07 am
    Oh, great …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds

    The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study.

    It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.
    ”

    P1
    The world has crossed the Rubicon.
    I don’t whether it will make much of a difference with what ALP does or don’t do. Our generation may not see it but the world could reach a minimum of 2.3°C.
    Now it is entirely in the hands of big emitters and rich countries to stop it below the above temperature by providing technological advances to Third World countries..
    Australia will stop selling fossil fuels only when other countries stop asking using them.

  31. Ven , fear not , my pref’s start at the bottom with UAP, One moron or 2, then nutty Christian groups , then the Liars nutters peanuts, i work my way up from there.
    preferencing the LNP before Labour Greens and co , well, i would rather put wasps up my ass.
    im to left of centre to do such a thing.

  32. Another very consequential week in the USA.

    Jan 6 and the stolen top secret documents are going to feature heavily.

    Trump and his cronies are going to get very uncomfortable.

    We live in interesting times

  33. C@tmomma @ #135 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 11:23 am

    They already have. So, what are you going to do? Vote against Labor, like selfish, unrealistic numpties such as Player One, who fail to recognise that a world outside Australia exists and which is engaged with energy superpower, Russia, in a new form of war, that of holding countries to ransom due to it being the majority supplier of their country’s energy needs but which Australia is willing and able to step up to the plate and supply that which Russia seeks to damage those nations, and their people, with?

    What a sad case you are, C@t.

    By all means let’s use war profiteering to justify Labor’s appalling policies.

    “We wuz only trying to help, Honest Injun! We wuz gonna use the money to pay for the stage 3 tax cuts”

  34. imacca at 11:33 am

    Yup, Gulf Stream slows down and / or stops. Northern Europe and the UK get VF cold. Glacier type average cold.

    The east coast of America will also become quite ‘Nanook of the North’ territory.

  35. Taylormadesays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 1:04 pm
    Alpha Zerosays:
    Monday, September 12, 2022 at 12:39 pm
    The Victorian Liberals are campaigning non-stop about Mythical “Pot-Holes on country roads”…
    _____________________
    Not mythical at all. Drove from Portland to Hamilton on the weekend and it was a friggin nightmare and you can’t really swerve to avoid them when you have a 50 tonne B’Double coming towards you.

    ____________________
    As I was saying Mythical.
    Or from the Ukraine:

    The correct solution to the problem (if there is one) though is to reduce the amount of traffic that drives on them in the first place by investing in rail and active transport measures…

  36. Is the DOJ offering Trump some type of deal?

    Or are they going to go the full monty and charge him with treason.

    As i said, interesting times…..

  37. Vwn

    Australia will stop selling fossil fuels only when other countries stop asking using them

    Ah yes, the cry of ‘drug dealers’ everywhere .

  38. I actually spent a week in Hamilton a few months ago and travelled to portland amongst other places around there.
    I was quite surprised as to the very good condition of the road network.

    Taylormade is talking out of his arse as per usual.

  39. the World being forced to look for alternative energy sources will be painful, the longer Putin holds back supplies the better.
    sometimes you just have to RIP OFF the band aid and get on with it .

  40. Snappy Tom @ #140 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 11:29 am

    P1 and Kelta

    Yes, the ALP govt may – may – approve some fossil fuel ventures.

    The ALP will approve fewer such ventures than the Coalition. The ALP will reduce emissions more than the Coalition..

    What a great policy – “Sure, we will also kill people … but not as many as them! So vote for us!”

    A sure fire winner.

  42. @Alpha Zero

    I can’t comment about Victoria but I can assure you here in regional NSW the roads are in a shocking state. Months and months of solid rain has completely waterlogged all the sub base layers under the roads, so now even small showers see potholes sprout like mushrooms. Councils for months have just been quick patching over the worst of them, as there hasn’t been enough dry weather to do meaningful repairs. In my LGA of coffs harbour the coastal villages are in reasonable shape (although many sections will eventually need complete resurfacing), but ‘west of the ranges’ it’s a completely different story. We’re also in a reasonable position financially for a regional council, but if you head north into the clarence valley LGA pretty much their entire road network outside of the pacific highway and major state roads is a complete shambles.

    It actually gets to the heart of why the nationals pork barreling is so irresponsible – state and federal nats will turn up o turn the first sod or cut the ribbon on some piece of infrastructure that they’ve provided a grant for, but there’s generally no recurrent funding allocated with the grant for ongoing maintenance of whatever the asset is, which increases the long term maintenance burden on councils and ultimately leads to increased rates for locals

  43. Where will Charles live? One has to pick a palace or two, or three (Oz Headline)
    After years of waiting, Charles finally has the top job; but does he have to move home too? The new King faces tough choices about what to do about the many residences at his disposal.

    My heart bleeds for him. I wont sleep tonight.

  44. A couple of la Ninas and the roads in Victoria and NSW are, on average, worse than they were 3 years ago. Another la Nina is in the pipeline. Road surfaces will get worse before they get better.

  45. I do a reasonable amount of country driving, my compliant would be the amount of bloody road works going on. Geelong Bacchus-Marsh is a getting a serious upgrade. Ballarat-Colac is getting it’s edges sealed.

    The people who care about country roads see the work, it is not going to be an issue for city folks.
    What are the Liberals smoking?

  47. Boerwar @ #193 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 1:14 pm

    A couple of la Ninas and the roads in Victoria and NSW are, on average, worse than they were 3 years ago. Another la Nina is in the pipeline. Road surfaces will get worse before they get better.

    Taylormades roads have been dodgy for a long time. Before the Andrews government. I seem to remember that some of the federal funds for the East West Link were to go to there. Not sure.

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