I don’t have a huge amount of material off which to hang the new open thread that is now past due, partly because a certain event has crowded other matters out of the media, but mostly because of a threadbare schedule of post-election opinion polling in which this is an off week. All we have on that score is the soon-to-be-superseded Roy Morgan weekly update, which tells us only that its latest voting intention poll comes in at 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor, out from 52-48. This is at the high end of how the Albanese government has been doing from this particular series since it came to office, which has been substantially softer for it than the two results we’ve had from Newspoll and the one from Resolve Strategic.
The only other item of electoral news to relate is the confusing news of the United Australia Party’s self-deregistration. This came as a surprise to the party’s sole Senator, Ralph Babet, with Clive Palmer seemingly unclear as to whether the decision was made on his own initiative or that of the party’s supposedly independent executive committee. Palmer, who if Forbes is to be believed is worth $2.1 billion, told Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail that he wished to spare himself the barely existent expense of maintaining registration, and would re-register the party shortly before the next election, despite not planning to run himself.
However, electoral law maven Graeme Orr told the Age/Herald that he might be in for a disappointment on this score, as the electoral laws appear to leave the United Australia Party name off limits to him and anyone else for the remainder of the parliamentary term. Babet will continue to be identified as a Senator for the party for parliamentary purposes, which do not relate to the Australian Electoral Commission’s party registration process.
“Didnt he get completely confused? He wanted Moscow, he wanted oil. But then decided to go for the more symbolic target of the city named after the leader and so overextended the famous 6th Army that it became the infamous 6th.”
I think that was later, and they thought they could kick the Russians out of Stalingrad easily. Bogged down in City, after they had bombed it to more easily defensible rubble……. bad move.
Oskil River seems to be a barrier in some parts, but not so much in others then??
Also, by falling back into Luhansk and Donets the Russians may be looking to take a stand in the older, long term prepared defensive lines and works that were in place from 2014??
Ven at 10.19
…He did a Morrison with aplomb.
____________
I think you insult Albo. Until he has himself secretly sworn into sveral ministries and oversees widespread dodgy dealing, he’s nowhere near doing a “Morrison.”
Ven says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:19 am
”
Australia’s hidebound immigration system is broken and needs to be fundamentally transformed, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil says, otherwise the country’s economy will quickly fall behind its global competitors. Peter Hartcher and Matthew Knott report on her concerns.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/too-long-too-expensive-immigration-system-is-broken-home-affairs-minister-20220911-p5bh56.html
”
Lisa Miller asked Albanese on ABC Breakfast interview today on what Home Affairs minister said on immigration and Albanese replied that Home Affairs minister will do what she has do and he is only focused on the Queen Elizabeth current events.
He did a Morrison with aplomb.
________________________________________
The difference is that Morrison simply used that trick to deflect, while imposing close control from his position. Everything that has happened since the election demonstrates that Albanese genuinely trusts and expects his ministers to take the lead on their portfolios, with Albanese’s intervention only going to what he regards as the critical issues – as well as issues going to his own portfolio.
The media, meanwhile, are desperately trying to winkle out some misspeak from someone that can be portrayed as division and policy confusion – like they desperately tried to do during the election campaign (though only with Labor).
The Establishment has been working on rehabilitating Charles and make Camilla acceptable for yonks. That will be amplified now.
The reality is that, to the extent it does so, the monarchy is a powerful force for looking backwards, keeping things the same and not rocking the boat.
Apart from staying schtum, being ultra wealthy, a bit of rule keeping and process work, that is the way it is supposed to work.
In some ways, like all countries, Britain is mired in and by its past. Brexit was many things and one of those things was an outpouring of the Way We Were.
IMO, having a 73 year old grumpy old man as Head of State and a retread Queen Consort of no particular skill, ability or character is not what Britain needs right now.
Factor in Truss and the British leadership swamp is well-crocodiled.
Snappy Tom says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:19 am
Upnorth at 10.00 re rotating male/female Test cricket captains for Head of State…
You may not have seen my post in the wee small hours (previous thread.)
I support your concept, as long as it involves sandpaper and underarm bowling. Oh, and sledging – Rodney Hogg-style. (According to his twitter feed… https://twitter.com/rmhogg?lang=en …Rodney is available as a “Corporate speaker, After Dinner Speaker, Sportsnight entertainer, MC…!”)
Tragically, a quick google search has not revealed footage of Hogg, walking back to his bowling mark, swearing his head off. Lip-reading was not required to understand exactly what he was saying. A role-model…
中华人民共和国
Cobber – I’m sorry I missed it. Mornings are about about getting the Nipper to school. But I agree 100% with all you suggestions. Maybe Kerry O’Keffe can “swear” them in each year. I really think we are getting some momentum with this Model. He can tell the Frog joke (google that)!
”
Any Remeikis writes that Labor’s core election commitment to legislate for a national integrity commission before the end of the year has been thrown in doubt by the suspension of parliament after the Queen’s death. Mark Dreyfus, planned on introducing Labor’s anti-corruption commission bill to parliament on Wednesday, when it was to immediately be sent to a joint committee for review.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/12/parliament-suspension-puts-albanese-anti-corruption-watchdog-election-promise-in-doubt
”
Albanese said today on ABC interview that he would add those days lost this week in October sitting.
He acted so sombre when he said that.
Ukraine COMPLETELY TAKE BACK the Kharkiv Oblast. In one day, Russians retreating from Izyum donated more artillery and armour to Ukraine than Germany and France have in 8 1/2 years of war.
Ukrainian army has reached the border to Russian Belgorod oblast. No RU troops in sight. If wanted, UKR could advance further into RU. Obviously, no such decision (militarily important, but politically unrealistic, as the West would be terrified) was made
Also , i do take issue with Charles saying the WHOLE of the U.K. and might i say the WHOLE of the world are devastated at the passing of the Queen.
1. many people do not like the Royals at all.
2. billions of people i suspect don’t know or care about her passing.
3. many are just trying to find shelter and food.
4. i also take issue with him claiming authority over me when nobody has asked for my opinion about it .
I thought i lived in a democracy where we get to decide .
Big news all:
“Queen Elizabeth II live updates: Princes William, Harry could walk side by side behind Queen’s coffin”
It’s not confirmed of course but there is a chance. We live in hope.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/huge-crowds-expected-as-the-queen-elizabeths-coffin-begins-its-journey-to-london/news-story/edd4d1f1d99d8f41c66193e7176175d5
Snappy Tom @ #97 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 1:19 am
I was always a big fan of Rodney .. even when he got (Sir) Geoffrey Boycott lbw first ball at Sydney 🙂
Ok, I will game play it myself
Scenario 1 – It fails due to opposition from the formal opposition; Dutton takes a stand against it. Then blame is transferred to the LNP.
Scenario 2 – It fails due to opposition from sections of the opposition. LNP leadership is blamed due to inability to control MPs and Senators.
Scenario 3 – It fails due to opposition from sections of the opposition and Greens (like the Republic vote where those opposing a republic teamed up with those wanting a popularist republic). Greens split with a division between the “pure” wing and the “pragmatic” wing. LNP leadership is blamed like scenario 2.
Scenario 4 – It fails due to merely One nation and Sky News types. More hand wringing about Racist Queensland and small states etc.
B.S. Fairman says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:21 am
TPOF – What happens if the Voice referendum fails? Has anyone game played that scenario?
_____________________________________
I don’t know. In a practical sense, I think if it fails, a non-constitutional voice will be legislated, but it would be subject to all the uncertainty that previous legislated representative bodies have faced.
In a symbolic sense, though, it will be seen in Australia and throughout the world as a national failure of character.
That said, I can’t think how circumstances would be better at any time in the future to pursue a Voice referendum. I should add that Albanese promised a Voice referendum first and in this term of Parliament. The death of the monarch is not compelling a reason enough to bring on the Republic vote (which is far more divisive emotionally) and sideline the Voice.
B.S. Fairman
The Greens are frontrunners by a country mile when it comes to damaging the Voice. Apparently, they fear a process to giving Indigenous Australians recognition as well as a way of expressing their views systematically.
They appear to favour the current situation in which the nation has no way of formally recognizing anything like a democratic expression of Indigenous views.
Apparently they favour the current system of self-appointment by Indigenous leaders who are then ‘legitimized’ through various whitefella-dominated power centres such as political parties like the…. Greens.
Republican though I am, I think a monarch whose sense of humour has been at least partly shaped by his love of The Goon Show won’t be all bad. The question now is whether he will have to give up his position as Patron of the Goon Show Preservation Society.
B.S. Fairman says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:29 am
Albanese believes – and I think he is right – that the only way a Voice referendum can succeed is if it is pitched directly to the voters as a national moral challenge that is above inter-party political skirmishing. To the extent that the significant parliamentary parties (and I include the Greens here) raise objections and issues, the Government response has been and will continue to be largely of addressing the issues raised rather than playing on political positioning (a real challenge in the case of the Greens).
When you asked about the scenario, I did not take that as a question about the political ramifications but the technical and moral ramifications, and answered that accordingly.
Ray (UK) says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:29 am
was always a big fan of Rodney .. even when he got (Sir) Geoffrey Boycott lbw first ball at Sydney
中华人民共和国
Saw David Gower make 98 in the second Innings at the SCG in 1980. It was the fams first trip to Sydney! We ate McDonalds which at that stage wasn’t available in Queensland (digusting) and took train into the City then walked to the Cricket.
Gower was a beautiful batsman. An abiding memory of a wonderfully spent youth.
B.S. Fairman @ #82 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 9:54 am
The captured Russians have been usefully exchanged for Ukrainian POWs.
Upnorth at 10.25
…Cobber – I’m sorry I missed it. Mornings are about about getting the Nipper to school. But I agree 100% with all you suggestions. Maybe Kerry O’Keffe can “swear” them in each year. I really think we are getting some momentum with this Model. He can tell the Frog joke (google that)!
____________
Is it possible for one nation (i.e. Australia) to invite another nation (i.e. the UK) to invite a specific person to be the second nation’s High Commissioner/Ambassador to the first?
If it is, I propose we invite the UK to send David ‘Bumbles’ Lloyd as High Commissioner to Australia, on condition that Bumbles includes the story of how a Jeff Thomson delivery struck him (Bumbles) in the genital region, splitting his ‘protector’ in such a way that it trapped certain elements of his anatomy between the two not-quite-separated parts, hence magnifying his agony as every movement he made induced a plasticised ‘squeezing’ of things that should never be squeezed…into every speech.
Jeff Thomson to be appointed to role that sees maximum liaison between him (Thommo) and Bumbles. Given that our Constitution doesn’t really regard the UK as ‘foreign’ (so Foreign Minister not appropriate) I’m not sure what Thommo’s job title should be…
Anyone know which of our portfolios relates to the UK High Commissioner? That’s Thommo’s job.
TPOF @ #90 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 9:40 am
Except the Winter War was the Russians (Soviets) v Finland and the Soviets were the invaders and the war ended via a negotiated settlement in part because the Finns were able to hold back and then repel the Soviets during a winter campaign where the soviets were believed to have far superior forces. People started to believe the Russians were weak and then Germans found out what happens when you poke the bear.
So…. both the timing and the invader are important but there are other similarities to be aware of.
Lol.
Thomas C. Theiner
@noclador
·
11h
Battles Russia lost against Ukraine so far:
Battle of Konotop
Battle of Trostianets
Siege of Chernihiv
Battle of Sumy
Battle of Okhtyrka
Battle of Lebedyn
Battle of Romny
Battle of Kharkiv
Battle of Zolochiv
Battle of Hostomel Airport
Battle of Hlukhiv
Battle of Hostomel
Battle of Ivankiv
Battle of Kyiv
Battle of Siversk
Battle of Mykolaiv
Black Sea Campaign
Battle of Voznesensk
Snake Island campaign
Battle of Vasylkiv
Battle of Bucha
Battle of Irpin
Battle of Makariv
Battle of Brovary
Battle of Slavutych
Battle of Izium
Battle of Kupiansk
And Ukraine is going to crush Russia in the following battles next:
Battle of Kherson
Battle of Lyman
Battle of Lysychansk
Battle of Vuhledar
Battle of Melitopol
Never has an army lost so many battles so badly in such a short space of time as the Russian.
Lots of little villages make for an impressive list.
https://youtu.be/1r3S5UKP7ME
@socrates: 10.21am.
The UCL study does not account for the following facts.
1. Time is now of the esssence.
2. UK cannot offer a ‘ready to go’ design. If they could offer a MOST (mostly off the shelf) variant of the Astute, things may be different.
3. Already the fascination of the ADF and RAN for things that the Brits don’t currently offer as part of their SSN is readily apparent. Past conduct is always a pretty good guide to future performance and the fact that any UK designed and built sub will have to go through a complete design phase would ring the loudest of all loud warning sirens.
4. The on,y way to get subs fast enough and the government of the day to enforce discipline in the process is if we go with a genuine – mature – MOST proposal. The US wont do that for us. The UK can’t. Leaving only France.
Upnorth
McDonalds or the lack of McDonalds in Quinceland ? 🙂
Snappy Tom says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:49 am
Upnorth at 10.25
…Cobber – I’m sorry I missed it. Mornings are about about getting the Nipper to school. But I agree 100% with all you suggestions. Maybe Kerry O’Keffe can “swear” them in each year. I really think we are getting some momentum with this Model. He can tell the Frog joke (google that)!
____________
Is it possible for one nation (i.e. Australia) to invite another nation (i.e. the UK) to invite a specific person to be the second nation’s High Commissioner/Ambassador to the first?
If it is, I propose we invite the UK to send David ‘Bumbles’ Lloyd as High Commissioner to Australia, on condition that Bumbles includes the story of how a Jeff Thomson delivery struck him (Bumbles) in the genital region, splitting his ‘protector’ in such a way that it trapped certain elements of his anatomy between the two not-quite-separated parts, hence magnifying his agony as every movement he made induced a plasticised ‘squeezing’ of things that should never be squeezed…into every speech.
Jeff Thomson to be appointed to role that sees maximum liaison between him (Thommo) and Bumbles. Given that our Constitution doesn’t really regard the UK as ‘foreign’ (so Foreign Minister not appropriate) I’m not sure what Thommo’s job title should be…
Anyone know which of our portfolios relates to the UK High Commissioner? That’s Thommo’s job.
中华人民共和国
See Cobber we are starting to form the Genesis of a very good model! Thommo can Head the Protocol Office of the “President of the Republic of Australia”. He and Bumbles would have lots to do together.
The Chairman of the Board of Selectors could swear in the new President each year at the MCG just before the start of the Boxing Day Test.
I also think that in this modern age a new King or Queen should be required to ask for permission to continue at each Election….
C@t at 10.51
…Thomas C. Theiner re Russia’s lost battles in Ukraine…
Never has an army lost so many battles so badly in such a short space of time as the Russian.
____________
It depends how one counts ‘lost battles’: the Red Army (and Air Force) lost WAAAAAY more people and equipment in 1941.
The Soviets lost the equivalent of their entire army a couple of times over, yet remained in the war. Tsarist Russia fell over much smaller losses in WW1.
Of the Soviet Union in 1941, we might say ‘never in the field of human conflict has so much been lost by so many who yet became vital to the defeat of such darkness*’
*This in no way suggests Stalin’s regime brought ‘light’ – we just know a Nazi Europe would’ve been catastrophic for human civilisation.
Sept. 11, 2022
.
Ivan Nechepurenko
Russia’s Defense Ministry released a new map of areas it claims to control in the Kharkiv region that appeared to confirm a pullback amid the Ukrainian offensive. The map showed Russian forces having withdrawn to the eastern side of the Oskil River, about 10 miles east of Izium, with the river appearing to represent the new front line in the region. That would indicate that Ukrainian forces have driven Russian troops from almost all of Kharkiv.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/11/world/ukraine-russia-war
Snappy Tom,
Partisans can get a little carried away sometimes. 🙂
poroti says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 10:53 am
Upnorth
We ate McDonalds which at that stage wasn’t available in Queensland (digusting)
McDonalds or the lack of McDonalds in Quinceland ?
中华人民共和国
Sorry should have made it clear – The McDonalds cobber. I mean who puts a Gherkin on a burger?
Actually our go to for fast food in Quinceland was “Big Rooster”. It was a very irregular treat for us though. “Red Rooster” ended up buying “Big Rooster” out.
As has been pointed out by better observers than I (France 24 we were watching a fair bit, prob there), the new King’s first speech was full of the promise of continuing his late mother’s traditions. She was really popular, he much less so. They know what worked, and will continue to work, and make it work they have to. So, he’ll adopt her modus operandi as best he can. Apolitical to all appearances (if not intents and purposes), meet and greet, meet and greet, be a good host, and keep the show on the road. The Queen Consort is pretty straight forward and grounded by all appearances; that helps too.
I am an Australian republican, 100%. I’ve no time for either of them, but they (like me) are accidents of their birth. That doesn’t stop what’s going on, going on. I think it absolutely fascinating as an anthropological study if nothing else. We are the species, and this is what we/they do.
Oh, great …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds
But hey, let’s approve the mining of more fossil fuels.
Yes Player one , i admit i have never voted LNP in my life ,i have voted Labour , green and indie at different times , but if Labour approve more Coal , oil or gas projects i will never vote for them again..
Political in all the scenarios for a failed referendum, the government would take a hit and Albo in particular would be wounded. It might not be fatal but it would be seen as a demonstration of his inability to accomplice his number one priority. It will also make the ALP even more reluctant to press progressive causes.
From Dutton’s point of view, either win with LNP leadership backing or Scenario 1 are safest. A successful referendum with his backing would allow him to show himself to be a strong leader who could stand against the harder elements of the Right.
Scenario 1 (successfully opposing it) would make him a hero of the Right and secure his position even if it cost them at the next election (and if he loses Dickson it would make him a martyr and therefore Rightwing sainthood).
Scenario 2 and 3 screw him and make him look weak.
Scenario 4 totally weakens the party and results in the demise of the LNP as a politic force replaced by other RW groups.
P1 at 11.07
…At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers…
___________
My late, Pommie, father used to bang on about the importance of a warm Atlantic current for life in the UK.
Apparently, Western Europe, although relatively far from the equator, has quite a mild climate. London is 51.5 degrees north. The only piece of a non-Antarctic continent that far south of the equator is Tierra del Fuego – the southern tip of South America, with its ‘sub-polar’ climate.
Is there a global heating scenario in which the warm Atlantic current is disrupted and places like the UK become less hospitable than the Falklands?
Even then, the climate change deniers would say ‘what happened to global warming?’
Kelta @ #131 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 11:14 am
They already have. So, what are you going to do? Vote against Labor, like selfish, unrealistic numpties such as Player One, who fail to recognise that a world outside Australia exists and which is engaged with energy superpower, Russia, in a new form of war, that of holding countries to ransom due to it being the majority supplier of their country’s energy needs but which Australia is willing and able to step up to the plate and supply that which Russia seeks to damage those nations, and their people, with?
How about this for some lateral thinking then? Again which bloody literalists like Player One are incapable of or unwilling to acknowledge. That the sooner we can contribute to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, the sooner the world can get back to focusing on a Renewable future. But to get there we have to go via a metaphorical dirt road first because Russia is blocking the way forward.
Andrew Earlwood
I share your concern with any RAN SSN option (or any sub option) that involves a new design. Time slippage is a certainty.
I think the greater number of industry and naval personnel linkages between the RAN and UK rather than RAN and US or France is a significant factor though, and will influence the decision.
Really USA is no chance, and correctly so. Then why announce an 18 month study of US v UK design procurement? It should have been UK vs France in terms of realistically deliverable options.
There is a new edition of one of my favourite youtube channels that comments on Ukraine and related matters. Today’s episode is on the timely topic of Naval Arms Exports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tr4FhwkCZUI
Guesses?Predictions?
From The Guardian
New high commissioner to UK chosen but not announced, PM says
Over on Sky News, Anthony Albanese says the decision on who will be the Australian high commissioner to the UK has been made, but won’t be announced as yet:
Well that decision will be announced in the fullness of time. It wouldn’t be appropriate to announce it at the moment. The focus right now is very much on paying tribute for the 70 years of loyal service that Queen Elizabeth gave Australia as our head of state. And also yesterday, of course, the proclamation of King Charles III as Australia’s new head of state. So it’s a very historic day here in Australia, as well as in the United Kingdom and in commonwealth nations around the world.
OK. More on subs.
Let’s assume that all three western nuclear submarine capable countries could actually offer a MOST design that could be built or at least assembled in Adelaide, starting by no later than 2027.
Each country could probably provide various modules, manufactured at their home facilities for assembly at Osbourne as a ‘starter kit’ whilst our own capabilities spool up. But in addition France could also build 4 subs for us entirely in France at the same time (two this decade – hulls laid down in 2025 and 2027, and a further two being laid down in about 2033 and 2035). America could also do that, but wont because it would jeopardise its already backlogged order book for SSNs for the USN. Britain couldn’t do any more than produce some modules for Australian assembly because of the ‘4 boats in a row’ Dreadnaught SSBN build.
Going with the Brits requires ‘everything to go right’ to avoid cost and timeframe blow outs. However, everything that has caused every single cost and timeframe blow outs in our recent ADF big acquisitions is firmly on the table with any British proposal: because in truth that do not have a MOST design for our requirements. Not so with the Americans or French. That’s why I rank the UK option dead last.
That’s even before one considers how ill suited the Astute Hull design is for further evolution for ‘block 2’ upgrades (ie. vertical launch systems, large multi purpose bays for Special Forces ISR and drone servicing and launches).
Snappy Tom @ #134 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 11:19 am
Yes, didn’t you see the documentary? The Day After Tomorrow, they called it. 100% factual account of things that actually happened. Or something like that.
P1 and Kelta
Yes, the ALP govt may – may – approve some fossil fuel ventures.
The ALP will approve fewer such ventures than the Coalition. The ALP will reduce emissions more than the Coalition.
In our compulsory, full preferential system, protesting by voting 1 for the Greens or a ‘climate indie’ is fine.
Placing the Coalition ahead of Labor is voting for a govt that will not only do the least to reduce emissions, but tell lies so their mates can profit from ventures that increase emissions while trying to fool the electorate into thinking Australia will ‘meet and beat’ its targets ‘in a cantor.’
That’s why, P1, certain posters here repeatedly ask about your preferential voting pattern. You help choose the nation’s action on climate change. If you preferenced Liberal ahead of Labor, you preferenced worse than a 1.5 deg increase in global temperature.
Let’s hope there is none in Australia. God forbid we mine it here to aid in a carbon free future. Best the Russians do it.
“Palladium has come to be the most valuable of the four major precious metals, trading higher than platinum, gold and silver.
And though use of palladium, part of the platinum group metals (PGMs) family, is highly concentrated in the automotive industry, to produce catalytic converters, experts say its unique hydrogen absorbing properties mean the critical mineral could play a key role in the envisioned hydrogen economy.
Over the past decade, the silvery white metal has attracted market attention for several different reasons, one being its massive price jump from an average of US$640/oz in 2012 to over US$3,100/oz in March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions and boycotts that followed.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/stockhead/heres-how-palladium-the-hottest-precious-metal-right-now-can-survive-and-thrive-postice/news-story/09dd12fd5983af643e732bf53956f883
Oh wait – P1 you better get all over this – an outrage – there may be a new mine in Australia? Never.
“Alison Britt, director of mineral resources for Geosciences Australia told Stockhead that while other countries, including the US, Canada, Zimbabwe and even Australia produce palladium, it was in relatively small amounts and grouped with platinum production – meaning the exact quantity of palladium production was unknown.
“Interestingly, this may change in the future following the recent discovery of Chalice Mining’s Gonneville deposit at the Julimar Project (in WA), which is dominantly palladium, along with platinum, nickel, and cobalt.
“Time will tell how much palladium this deposit will end up producing but it does serve to illustrate the ongoing need for new discoveries to ensure we have feedstock of the future.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/stockhead/heres-how-palladium-the-hottest-precious-metal-right-now-can-survive-and-thrive-postice/news-story/09dd12fd5983af643e732bf53956f883
“Is there a global heating scenario in which the warm Atlantic current is disrupted and places like the UK become less hospitable than the Falklands?”
Yup, Gulf Stream slows down and / or stops. Northern Europe and the UK get VF cold. Glacier type average cold.
B.S. Fairman says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:19 am
Political in all the scenarios for a failed referendum, the government would take a hit and Albo in particular would be wounded. It might not be fatal but it would be seen as a demonstration of his inability to accomplice his number one priority. It will also make the ALP even more reluctant to press progressive causes.
From Dutton’s point of view, either win with LNP leadership backing or Scenario 1 are safest. A successful referendum with his backing would allow him to show himself to be a strong leader who could stand against the harder elements of the Right.
Scenario 1 (successfully opposing it) would make him a hero of the Right and secure his position even if it cost them at the next election (and if he loses Dickson it would make him a martyr and therefore Rightwing sainthood).
Scenario 2 and 3 screw him and make him look weak.
Scenario 4 totally weakens the party and results in the demise of the LNP as a politic force replaced by other RW groups.
______________________________________
Dutton is a purely political animal, so I will address what happens to him politically. I disagree about the impact on Albanese, but I won’t argue it further.
As for Dutton, I don’t see how any Scenario would be a winner if he personally is a loser, especially if the referendum carries a clear majority of the population (though failing in three states). In a nation tired of politics, a successful political opposition to the Referendum would only strengthen disgust with the Coalition in its political heartland, where it has to regain a lot of seats from Teals if it is to win the next election or get even close. It’s a hell of a lot easier winning previously held marginal seats from Labor (and vice versa) than it is winning them from Independents (ditto re Dai Le in Fowler).
The political rules have changed. The independent (and Greens in Brisbane) wins in the last election have had a seismic impact on those rules. I cannot see how opposition to the Voice will benefit any mainstream party, whether the referendum gets up or not. If Dutton joins in support, even with a lot of blather about more material issues, then he will get the kudos for bipartisanship on a symbolic issue that is finally settled. If he doesn’t (and if the Greens don’t) they will wear the moral opprobrium among many of their own supporters, whatever the outcome.
A_E at 11.26
…Going with the Brits requires ‘everything to go right’…
____________
What could possibly go wrong?!
Reminds me of the Clausewitzian notion of ‘friction’ – from which is derived the notion that ‘no plan survives first contact with the enemy.’
Clausewitz determined that combat is such a stressful environment it magnifies the vulnerability of any weakness in planning to abject failure.
Those Hollywood movies where they ‘synchronise watches’ because an operation depends on precise timing? Guaranteed to fail.
Logistics experts operating in a crisis can be relied on to send the wrong supplies to the wrong place at the wrong time etc etc.
‘Military precision’ is for the parade ground. Clausewitz’s studies led the Prussians/Germans to adopt a highly flexible approach: training should assume almost any team, thrown together from a variety of units, can achieve an objective.
A bunch of cooks, anti-aircraft gunners (with only some of their guns) and some infantry – all possibly led by a sergeant – can take a hill.
Unfortunately, Australian defence procurement embodies ‘friction’ much, much more than ‘flexibility’ or ‘achievement of objectives.’ To this extent, we could say our defence dept is Clausewitzian!
Douglas & Milko for your friends in Sainte-Foy : this (improved) website gives historic temperatures
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/climate-history/vic/melbourne
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/climate-history/nsw/sydney
Scrolling through the tables you see that Melbourne has been hotter in March than Sydney. From memory in the first week of March
Check out the hottest minimum temperatures overnight, they kill
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Isn’t it true?
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Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 7:38 am
In 1,095 years of Monarchy, 73-year-old King Charles III is the oldest person to ever assume the British Throne since its inception in 927 A.D.
…And he is still 6 years younger than Joe Biden
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When compared to them Indian President Ms. Draupadi Murmu is spring chicken. 🙂
Shift to the right in Sweden on the back of anti-immigration.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/11/swedish-election-exit-polls-far-right
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Taylormadesays:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 7:29 am
Scottsays:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 6:35 am
Scott Morrison will be envious of Anthony Albanese , that Anthony Albanese will be the first Prime Minister who begins a new era under a king as Australia Head of State.
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Did you come up with that little gem all by yourself Scott ?
Some people take thier politics way too seriously.
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TaylorMade
You missed your chance to “LOL Scott”. 🙂
Comparisons with the Republic referendum are hopelessly inappropriate.
Supporters of an Australian republic were divided down the middle between those who wanted a replication of the existing arrangements, but with an Australian head of state, and those wanted an elected Head of State with specified powers. There were many on each side who preferred the status quo Monarchy to the other version. It was this powerful division that Howard exploited to defeat the referendum.
Price and Thorpe, though not alone in their views, are outliers among indigenous people in their attitude to the voice. They will be given an inordinate amount of media time because the media love conflict, but my observation is that there is great support across the indigenous community for the Voice. Certainly, opponents will exploit their views to damage the referendum, but those views do not reach down into the indigenous community or, indeed, the wider voting community, in the way that the differences among republic supporters formed a chasm.