I don’t have a huge amount of material off which to hang the new open thread that is now past due, partly because a certain event has crowded other matters out of the media, but mostly because of a threadbare schedule of post-election opinion polling in which this is an off week. All we have on that score is the soon-to-be-superseded Roy Morgan weekly update, which tells us only that its latest voting intention poll comes in at 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor, out from 52-48. This is at the high end of how the Albanese government has been doing from this particular series since it came to office, which has been substantially softer for it than the two results we’ve had from Newspoll and the one from Resolve Strategic.
The only other item of electoral news to relate is the confusing news of the United Australia Party’s self-deregistration. This came as a surprise to the party’s sole Senator, Ralph Babet, with Clive Palmer seemingly unclear as to whether the decision was made on his own initiative or that of the party’s supposedly independent executive committee. Palmer, who if Forbes is to be believed is worth $2.1 billion, told Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail that he wished to spare himself the barely existent expense of maintaining registration, and would re-register the party shortly before the next election, despite not planning to run himself.
However, electoral law maven Graeme Orr told the Age/Herald that he might be in for a disappointment on this score, as the electoral laws appear to leave the United Australia Party name off limits to him and anyone else for the remainder of the parliamentary term. Babet will continue to be identified as a Senator for the party for parliamentary purposes, which do not relate to the Australian Electoral Commission’s party registration process.
Ven @ #47 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 8:37 am
Which is trumped (lol) by criminal matters.
Which is pretty much what is said 6 months before every election these days.
GoldenSmaug @ #52 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 8:54 am
Indeed. NSW could not get that lucky.
There is another unwelcome front in our little Anthropocene Extinction Event. It is, IMO, far more important than the death of a woman in Scotland.
This killer has the same style of impact as the bark beetle species which have killed tens of millions of hectares of forests in north america and eurasia. Our newbie brings a tree-killing fungus along for lunch. The early signs are that Australian figs (45 species) have no natural immunity, putting both the figs and Australia’s numerous species of frugivores at risk of extinction. The good news is that only the female flies and she is not a strong flier. It says something for the pathetic state of our biosecurity arrangements that no-one knows how the beetle reached Australia. It also says something for the pathetic state of our MSM that this most significant event is well-buried.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/11/beetle-infesting-trees-in-perth-could-pose-deadly-threat-to-moreton-bay-figs
https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-200-summary/
Welll..sheeeeeit.
Apparently Russians withdrawing completely from around Kharkiv and back to a more defensible line on a fairly major river (Oskil).
Seems that the Russians have gotten most of their troops out, but left a LOT of equipment and ammunition behind.
Not over, Ukrainians will be looking over their shoulders towards the north i guess and keeping a close eye on how well the Russians manage to re-equip the troops they have withdrawn.
Amazing how something like this goes static for weeks and then they hit a tipping point. Wont hear about it for years i suppose but i am wondering if the capture of that Russian General a few days ago meant there was no-one left in the area with the authority to step up and take command?
The equipment and ammo left behind (especially since its ALL stuff the Ukrainian’s can use immediately) certainly suggests a general rout rather than any kind of proper withdrawal. Ukrainians may not get as much intact booty out of this withdrawal from the rest of Kharkiv as that HAD to be at least somewhat controlled. but even if the Russians blew up a lot of ammo there on the way out, its shells that wont be fired at Ukrainians.
Anyone got any lived experience of winter in that part of the world?? Wonder to what extent the rivers that seem to be shaping as defense lines will freeze this year (drive 50 tonne tanks across??) given the heatwave conditions in Europe so far??
C@t at 6.44
I’m surprised the ABC haven’t contacted me! My dad’s Aunty, who is/was Scottish, was the Nanny to the new King and his siblings! I know nothing else to say but, you know, close proximity to royalty and all that.
____________
I propose the following theme song for royal coverage: “I’ve danced with a man, who’s danced with a girl, who’s danced with the Prince of Wales…”
Commentator should be Roy Slaven, who at least has the first syllable of ‘royal’ in his name…
imacca,
Putin is playing dirty (dirtier) now:
(from earlier)
President Zelenskyy is defiant despite Russia’s latest vandalism exacted on Kharkiv:
Felix Light
@felix_light
BREAKING – Large-scale electricity blackout in Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv, cause unknown – Reuters witness
Felix Light
@felix_light
·
1h
RT editor in chief Margarita Simonyan Telegram repost: “Electricity is a privilege, not a right”
Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
·
1h
Zelensky to Russia, tonight…
Plus, Ukrainian asymmetrical warfare 😉
Snappy Tom,
I’m available for Weddings, Parties, Anything. 😉
imacca
If they are deep frozen, the rivers stop being barriers to vehicles. The intense cold has been problematic for invaders since the day dot. But Ukraine/Russian armies have a rich tradition of winter campaigns. What would probably be more problematic would be very deep and clingy mud off any macadmized roads in autumn/spring.
Civilians staying alive also becomes problematic during long hard freezes.
It’s impossible to predict the NSW election result on the latest poll. Just not enough data. But given that Labor needs to win a net 9 seats for majority government, that looks to me quite unlikely. There are only 4 LNP seats with margins under 5%. A minority Labor government looks a much better prospect, given there are 3 Greens and 2 leftish independents in the current house (Piper and Greenwich). But a minority LNP government is also a real possibility, given there are 3 SFF members and a more conservative independent in the current house as well. But will all these minor party and independent members hold their seats? Will there be teal independents elected? Will people associated with Dai Le win current ALP seats in south-west Sydney? I don’t think there is any polling data to help us answer these questions. But if I had to guess right now, my money would be on a hung parliament.
imacca
What the German High Command looked for in the early weeks of Barbarossa were very high numbers of Russian soldiers surrendering. They did not get the numbers they badly wanted.
I am not sure of the numbers who surrendered in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Offensive but it rather looks as if the bulk of Russian troops have retreated effectively. I don’t know. It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks as the reported numbers start becoming more reliable.
Boerwar at 8.59
Oh no! A woman died in Scotland? Tell me more – 24/7…
PM
So-called ‘progressive’ promoters of cross bench power might lose a bit of zeal for the concept if the far right controls the BOP.
PM
Only two SFF with Dalton jumping ship. Interesting to see if that makes it harder to keep Murray out of the hands of the Nats.
Presumably Donato holds onto Orange.
UK Cartoons:
Nicola Jennings on #KingCharles and #LizTruss & their opposing views on environmental issues
Warren Brown:
Will someone do a study of the old anglophone hagiography/non anglo questions-must-be-answered split in attitudes to the significance of QE2?
Taylormade @ #27 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 7:29 am
Do you mean they’re politics, or there politics, or their politics or thier politics?
Well, SUKKAR?
It is said that the failed Soviet invasion of Finland (the Winter War) led Hitler to believe he could take Russia – which, while he nearly did, ended costing him and Germany everything.
Thanks BK. From the dawn patrol:
“George Brandis says that the sub-plot to our AUKUS pact is that we may need UK rather than US submarines.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-sub-plot-to-our-aukus-pact-we-may-need-uk-rather-than-us-submarines-20220909-p5bgts.html”
________
Soapy sam tolls the bell on the biggest non secret of all. AUKUS was always about the Brits using American nuclear technology to build us SSNs. That must have been obvious for months, and now that the Americans have ‘tolled the bell’ that they couldn’t accomodate us with early Virginia Class subs, any prospect of another outcome seems to have vanished.
This is a catastrophe in the making. In every way.
First of all, the Brits wont be building us a mature – as in construction down pat and boats in service and fully operational – design. They actually can’t, given that they no longer make the big astute reactor that sits in the back. Moreover, the RAN will demand the necessary sub systems to ‘integrate’ with the Americans. many of which the Brits don’t use. This will all give Fort Fumble enough wriggle room to do what they always do with big procurement programs: change the specifications as they go along. Expect a years long delay in the design phase and very very probably, a decades long delay in the construction phase: 2060 here we come. … and I haven’t even mentioned the best bit yet: the inevitable costs blow outs. Oh joy.
Edited to ad:
The only way that our SSN program doesn’t blow out massively – either on cost or timeframe – is if we contract with a partner that has an entirely mature design to offer and the government enforces a strict discipline that there would be no variations in specifications beyond the initial contractual requirements of American combat systems and weapons. Only America and France are capable of delivering a program with that scope. The Brits – even on paper – are not.
Disaster. Disaster. Disaster.
Boerwar at 9.18 re Red Army prisoners in Barbarossa…
This page…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa
…suggests over 2.3 million “prisoners and missing” among the almost 5 million troops lost by the Red Army from June 1941 to January 1942.
Given that Red Army strength in the West was just under 3 million in June 1941, the Germans basically destroyed the Red Army almost twice over during the course of Barbarossa/Typhoon, yet still faced a formidable opponent in early 1942. It is doubtful any other nation (probably in history) could’ve withstood such losses without surrendering.
Are you suggesting the Germans expected to be more effective than they actually were? (Or is your view confined to the very beginning of Barbarossa?)
And yes, while the Germans were often tactically incredibly effective during Barbarossa, the operation failed – because ‘success’ could only be achieved by knocking the Soviet Union out of the war. In addition, German/Nazi hubris built in an assumption it would all be over in a matter of weeks, so it was not necessary to provide troops with proper clothing to withstand a Russian winter. What the occupation forces were supposed to wear in winter – in the event of Barbarossa succeeding – remains a mystery.
A-E
A re-run of the Bristol Beaufort?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #69 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 9:30 am
I wouldn’t worry. Australia will never have nuclear submarines unless they are built, maintained, fuelled, armed and manned by foreigners. We might be allowed to polish the brightwork.
Snappy Tom
I am going on the comments of a senior German general at the time. I assume the logic was that killing Russian soldiers involved huge casualties for the German army. Surrendering Russian soldiers not so much.
Boerwar,
I’m not sure the Russian troops have the stomach for a winter battle this time.
Not to mention that the Ukrainian military also captured the battle plans and other assorted high quality information when they captured the 2nd In Command Russian general in the Kharkiv insurgency.
If being Regent required a selection process, would Chucky get a gig?
One of the things that kept the Boer War going for much longer than made any sense to anyone were the occasional small victories by Boer guerilla units.
The one thing that more or less ensures there will be no immediate prospect of a negotiated outcome, and that the war is extended, is Ukraine battle victory.
A_E at 9.30
This ‘Fort Fumble’ of which you speak…is it Australia’s Dept of Defence, Britain’s Ministry of Defence…or both (a combined operation!)?
PS I cling to one positive – the piece was written by the now-irrelevant Brandis. I would urge you to express your views to the Defence Review (closing date in October.)
If Charles were below the legal age, or temporarily mentally incompetent, he would be designated Prince Regent.
He would then, presumably, inspire a new batch of Regency Bodice Rippers.
All the talk now is about Charles and how long his reign may be.
Seriously surprised if it lasts a year before he is over it and gives it to William. Lol!
“If being Regent required a selection process, would Chucky get a gig?”
From the country that chose BoJo?
“Are you suggesting the Germans expected to be more effective than they actually were? (Or is your view confined to the very beginning of Barbarossa?)”
My understanding of Barbarossa was that the German High Command delayed the advance on Moscow in order to prioritize seizing the South and its oil resources. Hitler saw Moscow as a symbolic target, rather than as the major, essential to the Russian war machine transport hub that it actually was. That gave the Russians a way to bring in new production from the relocated factories in the Urals, and aid from the US landed from the Pacific, and troops from Siberia and the East. Turned out in hindsight to be somewhat of a strategic mistake. Underestimated Russian resolve and gave the Russians room to move and fight back.
Funny, that the Russians accuse Ukraine of being “Nazified” but its the Russians that now seem to have seriously underestimated the Ukrainian’s and Europe’s willingnes to stand. Maybe it all comes back to someones in Putin’s circle telling him what they thought he wanted to hear and that it would be easy and just “kick the door in and the whole rotten edifice will collapse”??
“If being Regent required a selection process, would Chucky get a gig?”
Lol! Maybe it will go all Game of Thrones on them…the media will love that. 🙁
The Russians have been crippled by both the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives.
There are a lot of troops trapped in the Kherson region on the wrong side of a the Dniper river. The river was always going to be a choke point as there were only a handful of bridges over what is one of the biggest rivers in Europe (comparable with the Rhine and Danube). Those Russians can’t be redeploy elsewhere and are going to run out supplies at some stage.
Clearly out the Kharkiv region means the Ukrainians can now concentrate their forces into the south and find the weak points in the line and exploit them.
Taylormade says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 7:29 am
Scottsays:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 6:35 am
Scott Morrison will be envious of Anthony Albanese , that Anthony Albanese will be the first Prime Minister who begins a new era under a king as Australia Head of State.
_____________________
Did you come up with that little gem all by yourself Scott ?
Some people take thier politics way too seriously.
中华人民共和国
LOL – Taylormade (sorry being 3 hours behind Up-Far-North just got it)
Boerwar @ #76 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 9:17 am
I dont agree. Putin feels he can bide his time on Ukraine (once the Kyiv overthrow failed). He will insist on terms that Kyiv will not accept atm and wait for Europe and the US keep lose interest. But if Ukraine battle victories are serious enough that Russians start to worry about Crimea or that Putin needs to start calling up more resources, then he may want to negotiate on terms that tempt Kyiv. Front line losses will filter through to Russian elite and on to the street. It will be a loss of face. They will look for someone to blame and that will threaten Putins hold on power. It is a long way from that atm. But another few days like we just had will set the cat off.
imacca @ #55 Monday, September 12th, 2022 – 9:01 am
Oskil is not a fairly major river. It has a couple of dams on it, but is not major apart from them.
Look at this: Trucks retreating, posted this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJi5gyrRWXk
And this: Not too hard to cross.
So, according to protocol we are having a day to mourn and media simps like Lisa Millar (who has the shits because she’s met the late Queen and didn’t get a gig in London for the Funeral Porn) try to wedge Albo because some people (rightly IMO) over his compliance with that protocol?
Boerwar says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 9:49 am
If Charles were below the legal age, or temporarily mentally incompetent, he would be designated Prince Regent.
He would then, presumably, inspire a new batch of Regency Bodice Rippers.
中华人民共和国
This is where my idea of rotating the Head of State between the Male and Female Cricket Test Captains come in (with the reserve powers removed).
The selection process is done by the Board of Selectors! Immediately changed if they are dropped/injured/retire. It’s “seamless”.
Didnt he get completely confused? He wanted Moscow, he wanted oil. But then decided to go for the more symbolic target of the city named after the leader and so overextended the famous 6th Army that it became the infamous 6th.
People are so down on King Charles but I suspect he won’t be a bad King. He has shown concern about climate change and poverty in the past and seems to have a decent sense of humour.
His ability to change major things is limited but I suspect he wants to cut out some of the pomp around the monarchy. He has playing under his Mum’s rules for seven decades and he knows what likes and doesn’t. Once she is buried in Windsor castle for a few month expect changes in how the royal family works.
As for the occasional grumpiness, he is 73 (true grumpy old man territory).
Simon Katich says:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 9:30 am
But Ukraine/Russian armies have a rich tradition of winter campaigns.
It is said that the failed Soviet invasion of Finland (the Winter War) led Hitler to believe he could take Russia – which, while he nearly did, ended costing him and Germany everything.
_______________________________________
People tend to focus on ‘winter’, but the key word is ‘invasion’. That’s the difference between Germans v Russians in 1941 and Ukraine v Russians in 2022.
As for the occasional grumpiness, he is 73 (true grumpy old man territory).
So people got better as they got older and grumpier. George Carlin got a lot funnier in that way…
The English, particularly their cartoonists, are gold medal winners in cloying sentimentality
”
Keltasays:
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 7:20 am
After loosing my niece , brother and mother all within 3 weeks 2 months ago i can sympathize with the Queens family , but for F@#$ sake the rolling crap fest is just bovine excreter .
bring on the republic…
”
Kelta
Albanese today on ABC interview won’t even utter the word ‘ Republic’ let alone talk about it. He won’t touch the topic with a barbed wire.
PM
Your analysis of NSW suggests it might come down to Dr Joe McGirr, who has an interesting heritage.
On the one hand both his grandfather and great-uncle were leaders of the NSW ALP. On the other hand his aunt is Baroness Gardner of Parkes – a tory life peer.
I think he is unlikely to support a Labor minority government
”
Australia’s hidebound immigration system is broken and needs to be fundamentally transformed, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil says, otherwise the country’s economy will quickly fall behind its global competitors. Peter Hartcher and Matthew Knott report on her concerns.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/too-long-too-expensive-immigration-system-is-broken-home-affairs-minister-20220911-p5bh56.html
”
”
Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil has rightly recognised the shortcomings of the $1bn-a-year “golden ticket” visa scheme, which is set to be scrapped over the coming year. The national interest demands no less, says the editorial in The Australian.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/action-on-golden-ticket-visas/news-story/c1f56e4a3cb9826a262844a000504875
”
Lisa Miller asked Albanese on ABC Breakfast interview today on what Home Affairs minister said on immigration and Albanese replied that Home Affairs minister will do what she has do and he is only focused on the Queen Elizabeth current events.
He did a Morrison with aplomb. It was sight to behold. I was chortling out loud. Even my daughter,who is in HSC , recognised that.
Upnorth at 10.00 re rotating male/female Test cricket captains for Head of State…
You may not have seen my post in the wee small hours (previous thread.)
I support your concept, as long as it involves sandpaper and underarm bowling. Oh, and sledging – Rodney Hogg-style. (According to his twitter feed… https://twitter.com/rmhogg?lang=en …Rodney is available as a “Corporate speaker, After Dinner Speaker, Sportsnight entertainer, MC…!”)
Tragically, a quick google search has not revealed footage of Hogg, walking back to his bowling mark, swearing his head off. Lip-reading was not required to understand exactly what he was saying. A role-model…
Ven
Albanese today on ABC interview won’t even utter the word ‘ Republic’ let alone talk about it. He won’t touch the topic with a barbed wire.
___________________________________
Because he has made it clear he wants to focus on the Voice and does not want constitutional change distractions while trying to build community consensus about the Voice. And I think he is dead right.
A belated good morning all. Thanks to BK for the roundup, mercifully funeral free.
On this article, I see George Brandis has finally reached the conclusion that several bludgers reached a month ago: there will be no US subs for the RAN. George needed a lot of words to say it in a way that did not include that Peter Dutton had lied when he said the opposite.
“George Brandis says that the sub-plot to our AUKUS pact is that we may need UK rather than US submarines.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-sub-plot-to-our-aukus-pact-we-may-need-uk-rather-than-us-submarines-20220909-p5bgts.html
There are technical reports on the feasibility of nuclear submarines for the RAN dating back to at least 2009. There was a detailed engineering feasibility study in 2012 by University College London. It concluded:
– Australia building SSNs is quite technically feasible, and not necessarily more expensive than building a new class of large SSK from scratch.
– Australia’s existing nuclear regulatory regime could manage safety of the project with expansion
– There would be synergies for Australia building SSNs in partnership with the UK.
https://issuu.com/uclaustralia/docs/could_australia_s_future_submarines
andhttps://phys.org/news/2013-08-nuclear-powered-submarines-do-able-australia.html
I just caught up with Andrew Earlwood’s earlier post. The 2012 UCL study was done before the Suffren had been completed, but it clearly preferred the US or UK options, with UK easier to build at ASC.
TPOF – What happens if the Voice referendum fails? Has anyone game played that scenario?