I would guess that Newspoll will return on the eve of the resumption of the parliament, which is still three weeks away. This is an off week for Essential Research; there may be a Roy Morgan poll, or there may not. Until then:
• Kylea Tink, the newly elected teal independent member for North Sydney, says she believes a new federal integrity commission should have the power to sack parliamentarians for sufficiently serious breaches of a parliamentary code of conduct; David Pocock, newly independent Senator for the Australian Capital Territory, says he would have “real concerns about an unelected body being able to dismiss elected representatives”. The federal parliament denied itself of the power to expel representatives through legislation passed in 1987, such power only ever having been exercised in 1920, when Labor MP Hugh Mahon made “seditious and disloyal utterances” regarding British policy in Ireland. Mahon then re-contested his seat of Kalgoorlie but was narrowly defeated, which remains the only occasion of a government party winning a seat from the opposition at a by-election.
• If you can’t wait another three years for my 2025 federal election guide, Robin Visser offers an online geospatial tool for examining polling booth results at the recent federal election.
Victorian state news to go with that related in last week’s dedicated post on the subject:
• Roy Morgan has results of a “snap SMS poll” of state voting intention in Victoria, showing Labor with a rather inplausible two-party lead of 59.5-40.5 from primary votes of Labor 43.5%, Coalition 29.5%, Greens 12%, United Australia Party 2% and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 1%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1710. A similar poll in November produced the same two-party result.
• Morgan’s result is at odds with a detailed assessment of the state of play by pollster Kos Samaras, who expects Labor to struggle to maintain its majority in the face of four to five losses to the Liberals, two to the Greens and others yet to independents. However, it’s also “extremely difficult to see how the Coalition get anything north of 38 to 40 seats” in a chamber of 88.
• Jane Garrett, who held a seat in the Legislative Council for Eastern Victoria region, died on Saturday of breast cancer at the age of 49. Garrett moved to the chamber from the lower house seat of Brunswick at the 2018 election, which duly fell to the Greens. She resigned from cabinet in 2016 after a dispute with the United Firefighters Union in her capacity as Emergency Services Union brought her into conflict with Daniel Andrews. Garrett announced last December that she would retire at the election. Labor’s ticket in Eastern Victoria will be headed by incumbent Harriet Shing, who was last week promoted to cabinet, and Tom McIntosh, a former electrician and (at least as of 2019) electorate officer to federal Batman MP Ged Kearney, who is presumably well placed to fill Garrett’s casual vacancy in the interim.
Also:
• As detailed at length on my live commentary thread, South Australia’s Liberals copped a 6.0% swing in Saturday’s Bragg by-election to add to the 8.8% one they suffered at the March state election, leaving about 2% intact from a margin that was 17.4% after the 2018 election, and had never previously fallen below 12.8%. The next by-election off the rank is for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central, to be vacated with the retirement of Nationals member Vince Catania. The Nationals last week preselected Merome Beard, proprietor of Carnarvon’s Port Hotel, whose BLT comes strongly recommended. Labor is considered unlikely to field a candidate, but the Liberal state council voted last week to call for nominations.
poroti @ #120 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 11:14 am
The earth is spinning faster. So, yeah, the world is speeding up.
The planets rotation should be slowing down instead of speeding up. The thought is that as glaciers and icesheets melt the earth will speed up in the same way a figure skater speeds up as they bring in their arms. Or it may just be natural variation due to whatever the f goes on down there in the core and mantle.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 12:30 pm
Doubt the teals will win any seats in the Victorian election since Victoria is at a different stage of the political cycle and this election is not about the Liberals because that was the last election and this election is about a eight year old state government trying to hold onto a big majority.
________
That’s possible. But the people behind the Teals and their supporters might like to keep it moving, knowing they are very likely sweeping out the same kind of people.
Q: It’s time for Albanese to get back home.
I am sure Albanese agrees, however he has had important relationships to repair.
Penny cant do everything….maybe Penny could actually!
It would certainly help the Teals if Tim Smith and Bernie Finn were still around.
Nath
They can wish all they like but they owe their federal election success to the failures of the Morrison Government and poor local member performance.
They can wish all they like but they owe their federal election success to the failures of the Morrison Government and poor local member performance.
______
And strategic voting by thinking Labor supporters.
At least we know where he is and dont feel the need to speculate about hair transplants and meetings with leaders of secretive Christian sects while the place burns down.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 12:38 pm
Nath
They can wish all they like but they owe their federal election success to the failures of the Morrison Government and poor local member performance.
________
I agree with you that they might fizzle. But you never know, this is also about the soul of the inner East electorates. They may not be Liberal any more, State and Federal. We will see.
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 7:40 am
Johannes Leak is a jerk.”
—————
Jerks sue for defamation
barney @ #158 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:13 pm
Not for being called a jerk. And it would be a spectacular contortion for a political cartoonist to sue someone for freely expressing their opinion.
poroti
On golden oldies, you’re right of course. “The world is always moving faster, and the youngsters of today never had it so good.” It’s always worth a reality check. Maybe I’m just getting old?
But part of the mood that S. Kelly seems to be reaching for is a response to 9 years of federal government inaction. Australia has been asleep, sometimes waking, sometimes heckling, but not very much doing. Urgency is not necessarily speed but it is the need for it. We must catch up. But we need reassurance too, which means straddling a two-speed strategy. That can be unsettling in itself.
I would think Brighton, Bulleen, Ripon, Caulfield, Sandringham and Kew in Victoria might be vulnerable to a respected local Teal.
“Snappy Tomsays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 12:09 pm
Poroti at
Venat 10:47 am
Rupert’s orcs ‘Economics 101’ is just an example of what this JK Galbraith quote below was pointing out. It’s why so
many ‘Demented plutocrats’ have been fans of certain ‘flavors’ of the Dismal Science.
“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith
____________
Outstanding quote from the late, great JKG.
He also once said, ‘Economics is useful in forming a source of employment for economists.’”
—————
Zinger of a quote from JKG: At the end of the day we’re all dead
Victorians were willing to throw out a reasonably good Labor government for Ted Baillieu because he seemed decent. I don’t think Matthew Guy is going to get that feeling going for him.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 12:51 pm
I would think Brighton, Bulleen, Ripon, Caulfield, Sandringham and Kew in Victoria might be vulnerable to a respected local Teal.
—————————–
Maybe if the Andrews Government was an eight year old Liberal government but it isn’t.
Rex
‘I’d like to see an imaginary cohort of people spend lots of money getting some other group of imaginary people to take on an imaginary group of people, and that is all I think about.’
Well, go for it, then.
You do realise that when you’re waiting for someone to do something, that you are someone?
How many Australian men will make it through to the quarters? deMin will struggle against this Chilean chap I reckon. Kubler has been stunning but Fritz is v good. And this is just the sort of game in the past that Kyrgios has shown just how far below expectations he can fall.
I am gonna say; 1.
There’s no way the Labor numbers in Vic are that high.
But there’s also zero chance of a change of govt in Nov. Guy is as electable as my morning bowel movement. And not nearly as clever.
zoomster @ #165 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:56 pm
You have misquoted me.
Nath
Dan Andrews and his team would expect to lose seats because the last Victorian government to get back to back swings after being elected was Dick Hamer in 1973 and 1976.
somethinglikethat @ #167 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:58 pm
The Libs will gain Hawthorn in my opinion and Pesutto will take the leadership.
If he can purge the party of it’s kooky religious right and become a Teal progressive party, it will seriously challenge at the 2026 state election.
Rex
How is directly quoting you misquoting you?
Next you’ll be sending me a letter.
zoomster @ #171 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 1:05 pm
I didn’t say what you quoted.
Rex
I copied and pasted. I didn’t change a word.
zoomster @ #173 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 1:07 pm
You copy/pasted what the dickhead Pi said.
If the blue ribbon seats are pissed of with the religious nutters taking over the Liberal party and the teals are organized enough to claim them, what will the Liberals have left?
This poll would suggest all Liberal seats are there for the taking.
The Western Australian’s voted for the leader of the opposition and the deputy leader directly with the Liberal party selecting between the two.
Perhaps Victoria can do better and vote directly for the leader of the opposition.
Rex Douglas @ #170 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 1:04 pm
I used to listen to Party Liners on the ABC radio here. Pesutto was the ‘blue’ rep.
He talked a lot of sense for a Liberal. This scenario would not surprize me at all.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 1:04 pm
…
If he can purge the party of it’s kooky religious right and become a Teal progressive party, it will seriously challenge at the 2026 state election.
I don’t know about retaking Hawthorn, but I agree with what needs to happen for the Liberals to ever get near power again. The question is, will the Liberal brand have any value to the Teals.
Rex
Oh, apologies – why didn’t you make that clear to start with, since I’d obviously made an honest mistake?
It really doesn’t change my point — if you want something to happen, then do something to make it happen. Don’t sit around wishing.
I don’t doubt that teals may try to run in some of the inner seats and may get some level of support but that doesn’t mean they have a chance to even make it into the 2CP let alone win.
Again, a “teal” winning requires not only appealing to moderate Liberal voters who are their target demographic, but also shifting tactical votes from Labor & Greens voters to ensure they finish second and get in the 2CP count. That only happens when Labor have no chance of winning the seat, which was the case in Kooyong, Goldstein, Wentworth, Warringah, North Sydney, etc.
Labor & Greens voters in those seats knew that the only real contest was between Liberal and Independent so they voted independent.
That isn’t the case in Brighton, Sandringham & Caulfield where the margins are all less than 1% and Labor could win with the slightest of swings. It’s also not the case in Hawthorn which Labor already hold. Labor & Greens voters have no incentive to shift to the right and support a “teal” independent just to unseat a Liberal, when Labor themselves are competitive to win those seats, and even if the Liberal incumbents do retain them, they won’t be in government anyway.
Kew & Bulleen might be good seats for a teal to run in, just to shake things up and force the Libs to dedicate resources (good way to send a message to Guy especially if Liberal voters are dissatisfied with their leadership), but they still wouldn’t win.
Victoria:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 9:57 am
[‘Mavis
What did he say?’]
In BK’s words in the Dawn Patrol:
[‘Alexander Downer writes that he is a huge fan of the United States. But there are aspects of its society that are divisive and violent, and we want to try to keep those aspects out of our own country. That will require very real leadership given the weight of American culture through the media, the arts and entertainment.] – the AFR is paywalled.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 12:15 pm
I thought that’s what the Greens were about.
…we had some Voices candidates contest the last State election. They did better than I expected but obviously fell short. If there’s no mood to change, then there’s nothing to work with.
At this stage leading into the Federal election, my twitter feed was filled with Voices groups being addressed by the likes of Cathy McGowan, appeals for candidates, etc. I follow all the main players and there’s no indication that there’s anything happening.
Which is to be expected. The community’s attitude towards the State government is totally different to that towards the Morrison one.
Rex Douglas @ #174 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:38 pm
OMG I so hated the Life of Pi.
Dolly Downer likes his own drivel a little too much.
Hawthorn was the surprise of the 2018 election. It even surprised the ALP candidate, John Kennedy, who had gone to bed before the results. This lead to a crazy situation of people having to call the retirement home where he lives to wake him up and get him dressed to address the party members and media.
I suspect that the Liberals will win it back but it probably depends on the sentiment. If the Liberals run as poorly as last time then Kennedy might be re-elected.
nath says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 12:53 pm
“Victorians were willing to throw out a reasonably good Labor government for Ted Baillieu because he seemed decent. I don’t think Matthew Guy is going to get that feeling going for him.”
Sheesh, a guy has a lousy lobster with mobsters just once and he’s tarnished for life, talk about unfair (chuckles).
(Apologies, I forget who posted this, but thank you, it’s an interesting read.)
https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-international-affairs-council-director-kortunov-within-russia-two-fundamentally
It’s a 7 point summary of an article written by the director of Russian International Affairs Council, followed by a more recent interview with him. Point 7, seems relevant to Australia.
Hmm, “South and South-East Asia, in the Middle East, in Africa and in Latin America”. Australia seems to have a useful geographic and political position. I don’t know enough to speculate intelligently on what Australia might actually do or be encouraged to do, or how Russia (and China?) might respond. But I expect we’ll see some push/shove in trade and diplomacy, and increased efforts towards international aid, emergency assistance, and perhaps even immigration. I also wonder if “ABC Australia” (SE Asian broadcasts) couldn’t use a shot in the arm.
“Snappy Tom : “While we’re at it, we may have to consider negotiating a nuclear weapons partnership with the French if the US goes substantially AWOL.” ”
What about if Marine Le Pen became the president of France shortly afterward?
The UK is probably our best option – as much as we need to hold our nose with Boris Johnson, the two-party system there probably prevents someone like Nigel Farage from ever becoming Prime Minister.
Cronus says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 1:41 pm
nath says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 12:53 pm
“Victorians were willing to throw out a reasonably good Labor government for Ted Baillieu because he seemed decent. I don’t think Matthew Guy is going to get that feeling going for him.”
Sheesh, a guy has a lousy lobster with mobsters just once and he’s tarnished for life, talk about unfair (chuckles).
_________
That’s all that is known about him. Plus his pathetic 2018 campaign. Ted Baillieu however came from a great family still highly respected in Melbourne. Which is why people were willing to give him a go.
Late Riser says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 1:44 pm
…
I also wonder if “ABC Australia” (SE Asian broadcasts) couldn’t use a shot in the arm.
I spent some time in Tonga. All used to stop ( the locals) to listen to Radio Australia hour that related to to Tonga.
The Liberals threw all that away to try and keep Murdoch happy.
Labor brought it up during the election campaign, the ignominious in the Liberal party dismissed it with talks of home and away.
I hope Labor follow it through and what was an excellent and appreciated service returns.
”
porotisays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 11:44 am
The growing sense is that the world is only speeding up.
Things are happening so much faster these days . Now there is a hardy annual , blooming since forever. Although not as classic a vintage as ‘young people today………..’
”
poroti
Things are happening faster these days because of
1. Climate change
2. Internet.
The destruction is faster due to climate change and unending wars.
People can do things faster because of internet.
How brain and body is not equipped or evolved to cope life at this faster rate because they want to do things at their pace and enjoy life.
Jan6 : “OMG I so hated the Life of Pi”
One of my fave books though…
Teal movement benefited from having a polarising figure such as Barnaby Joyce federally. They won’t have that advantage going against a Victorian state Labor government. I also tend to agree some seats that have ‘teal suited demographics’ that Labor hold I doubt they will target. They may aim for a couple though that the Liberals hold such as Kew.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 11:59 am
Interesting…
Senator Lidia Thorpe
@SenatorThorpe
·
3m
NAIDOC started as a day of protest. In 1938, it was 1 of the first major civil rights gatherings in the world….
———————————-
Thorpe does history like she does just about everything else.
”
Socratessays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 11:55 am
Further on China, and noting Andrew Earlwood’s comments, the risk of another isolationist POTUS coming to power in USA is one of many reasons why I would prefer Australia went with the French or UK nuclear sub option rather than USA.
The SSN project is a long term build – at least 6 to 8 years each sub. SSN technology in the US is classified and requires Congressional approval to export. What if we commit to the US design, the POTUS changes, and Trump II changes his mind and says no export? Our naval shipbuilding plan would be wrecked.
Whereas with UK or France, once the contract is signed there are no more legal barriers. Plus, in the context of the UK (11) and French (10) SSN construction programs, another 8+ Aussie SSNs are a big deal, and very unlikely to be dropped once started. The USN is building 60+ SSNs, so Australia’s 8 would just be a distraction.
”
I agree but with one rider.
Agree to have a few subs built on long-term basis by USA in order to preserve the friendship and get a few from France by end of this decade and get the rest from UK.
Thus keep everyone happy.
Pi @ #191 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 1:31 pm
More of a Vernon God Little person.
Barney
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 7:40 am
Johannes Leak is a jerk.”
—————
Jerks sue for defamation”
I am not qualified to comment on Leak’s personality.
My personal view of Leak’s cartoons is that they lack in wit, insight and humor and are so biased as to be irrelevant to any meaningful political debate.
@Politican Nightwatchman, I agree.
While I don’t think they would be particularly competitive, I think if the “teal” movement wants to send a message to the Liberals, the 3 seats they should run in are Kew, Malvern and Bulleen.
They should stay out of the race in seats like Brighton, Sandringham & Caulfield which Labor are only a tiny swing away from winning, or Hawthorn which Labor are trying to hold, because a 3 way contest may actually help the Liberals in those seats.
But if they run candidates in the 3 seats the Liberals hold by between 4.7% and 6.6%, while they will probably not be particularly competitive, it’s another front the Liberals have to fight on and dedicate resources to when they are already trying to defend the inner bayside, win back some of the east, and cut into the margins in the sandbelt and outer suburbs.
Ven
“I agree but with one rider.
Agree to have a few subs built on long-term basis by USA in order to preserve the friendship and get a few from France by end of this decade and get the rest from UK.
Thus keep everyone happy.”
That would be a maintenance and logistical nightmare, and for Australian taxpayers, a financial one too.
If any of USA, UK, or France would build us some SSNs up front, that changes things a lot. But it would still not change the order of preference IMO.
For anyone interested, Hugh White has another Quarterly Essay out, which I have just started reading. He is more concerned about the US alliance than myself, AE, or for that matter Kevin Rudd. He is less optimistic about China too:
https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2022/06/sleepwalk-to-war/extract
“More broadly, while Rudd’s proposals for “managed strategic competition” suggest measures to reduce the risk of conflict over flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, they do not address the underlying differences between America and China over strategic leadership in East Asia. They assume that China might accept America’s strategic presence in Asia in order to reduce the risk of war. But there is no sign of that.”
Hugh White.