I would guess that Newspoll will return on the eve of the resumption of the parliament, which is still three weeks away. This is an off week for Essential Research; there may be a Roy Morgan poll, or there may not. Until then:
• Kylea Tink, the newly elected teal independent member for North Sydney, says she believes a new federal integrity commission should have the power to sack parliamentarians for sufficiently serious breaches of a parliamentary code of conduct; David Pocock, newly independent Senator for the Australian Capital Territory, says he would have “real concerns about an unelected body being able to dismiss elected representatives”. The federal parliament denied itself of the power to expel representatives through legislation passed in 1987, such power only ever having been exercised in 1920, when Labor MP Hugh Mahon made “seditious and disloyal utterances” regarding British policy in Ireland. Mahon then re-contested his seat of Kalgoorlie but was narrowly defeated, which remains the only occasion of a government party winning a seat from the opposition at a by-election.
• If you can’t wait another three years for my 2025 federal election guide, Robin Visser offers an online geospatial tool for examining polling booth results at the recent federal election.
Victorian state news to go with that related in last week’s dedicated post on the subject:
• Roy Morgan has results of a “snap SMS poll” of state voting intention in Victoria, showing Labor with a rather inplausible two-party lead of 59.5-40.5 from primary votes of Labor 43.5%, Coalition 29.5%, Greens 12%, United Australia Party 2% and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 1%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1710. A similar poll in November produced the same two-party result.
• Morgan’s result is at odds with a detailed assessment of the state of play by pollster Kos Samaras, who expects Labor to struggle to maintain its majority in the face of four to five losses to the Liberals, two to the Greens and others yet to independents. However, it’s also “extremely difficult to see how the Coalition get anything north of 38 to 40 seats” in a chamber of 88.
• Jane Garrett, who held a seat in the Legislative Council for Eastern Victoria region, died on Saturday of breast cancer at the age of 49. Garrett moved to the chamber from the lower house seat of Brunswick at the 2018 election, which duly fell to the Greens. She resigned from cabinet in 2016 after a dispute with the United Firefighters Union in her capacity as Emergency Services Union brought her into conflict with Daniel Andrews. Garrett announced last December that she would retire at the election. Labor’s ticket in Eastern Victoria will be headed by incumbent Harriet Shing, who was last week promoted to cabinet, and Tom McIntosh, a former electrician and (at least as of 2019) electorate officer to federal Batman MP Ged Kearney, who is presumably well placed to fill Garrett’s casual vacancy in the interim.
Also:
• As detailed at length on my live commentary thread, South Australia’s Liberals copped a 6.0% swing in Saturday’s Bragg by-election to add to the 8.8% one they suffered at the March state election, leaving about 2% intact from a margin that was 17.4% after the 2018 election, and had never previously fallen below 12.8%. The next by-election off the rank is for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central, to be vacated with the retirement of Nationals member Vince Catania. The Nationals last week preselected Merome Beard, proprietor of Carnarvon’s Port Hotel, whose BLT comes strongly recommended. Labor is considered unlikely to field a candidate, but the Liberal state council voted last week to call for nominations.
Apparently, there’s a Teal standing against Matthew Guy in his own seat. One to watch. 🙂
Watt demonstrating the difference between a Government wanting to help and one that begrudgingly helps when there are no alternatives.
You know what would blow Conservatives’ tiny little minds? A photo of PM Albanese and Nick Kyrgios together. 😀
On the Divided States, Dolly’s finally said something meaningful.
Mavis
What did he say?
@Victoria – sure, more data’s always good and yeah, I can agree that 59.5% may be a little bit of Roy Morgan being weird.
But there’s a big jump from 59.5, to “expects Labor to struggle to maintain its majority in the face of four to five losses to the Liberals”.
citizen says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 9:10 am
Another resident of the Murdoch home for retired hacks continues to pontificate:
“Left media’s wage push fails Economics 101
Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers will have a tough job re-educating the media class about the benefits of economic growth and the dangers of unfettered spending and unchecked inflation.”
CHRIS MITCHELL (Oz headline)
The Coalition, Mitchell and friends can get back to us in nine years time. After their performance re debt and profligacy, they lack any economic high moral ground whatsoever. Best they just STFU.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 9:40 am
Cronus @ #83 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 9:23 am
C@T
“ So, all hope is not lost and Australia should keep going in the Renewables direction.”
“Agreed. Regardless of the SCOTUS/EPA decision, the simple fact is that renewables are cheaper. Even those who don’t believe in climate change can surely understand this clear fact.
The beauty of it is, it will give Australia an economic advantage as well!”
+1.
Frednk @6:27
I listen to my subconscious, lets call them “my SC”. I don’t always believe but them they do raise interesting questions.
What was written (thank you):
“It is now generally accepted we have to go through an economic transition and there is no one in the Liberal party with the smarts to deal with that. They really have deteriorated into a collection of private school prats, with a solid sprinkling of religious nutters..”
What my SC saw:
“It is now generally accepted we have to go through an economic transition and there is no one Liberal party with the smarts to deal with that.”
Oh, says my SC, they’ll split? Hmm, says my “rational” self. I see how well the description of the prat-nutter club also fits the Qld LNP. Maybe they already did.
———
Thanks BK for this link.
The growing sense is that the world is only speeding up. This lends a sense of urgency to politics – one that hardly fits with the incrementalism preached during the campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pace-of-change-emerges-as-a-key-challenge-for-albanese-20220703-p5aynq.html
I think he’s captured the mood. Uncertainty is unsettling. Sean Kelly focusses on the government tasks. But the rest of us are here too. Uncertainty puts a brake on the countless daily decisions that confront all of us. But nervous uncertainty does the opposite and mistakes rise with hasty reflexive decisions. Some of those decisions have consequences. How does a federal government counter that? (eg ‘frightened Alan Kohler’.)
———
zoomster @ 8:13
“It’s a common mistake to think that being in Opposition means you should oppose everything the government’s doing.”
But it’s easier than doing what you suggest, namely to be an alternative government. So when you’ve got nothing to offer…
———
Dog’s Brunch @ 8:13
Re HH=MTG, Yep.
———
C@tmomma @ 8:41
That’s a wonderful reply by Buttigieg. Thanks for posting.
———
And it’s off the the dentist…be safe all.
andrew rickert
@_rockrit
#BREAKING: A cargo ship is adrift off the Royal National Park, south of Sydney. 21 crew will need to be evacuated by helicopter. Toll and Lifesaver + polair + military choppers all on the way.
@9NewsSyd
Pasha Bulkar 2.0?
The lack of action over this scandal undermines the claim that America makes to be a democratic beacon and custodian of human rights. Magnistky Act? Tumbleweeds;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/03/judge-puts-biden-on-the-spot-over-immunity-for-saudi-prince-jamal-khashoggi
Just like the west – including dear C@t – only ‘discovering’ human rights abuses in China once it seemed likley that China would surpass American preeminence and that triggered the White House.
Meanwhile, America is virtually at war with itself, and is likely to elect a ‘smart Trump’ in 2024.
But hey, let’s all hitch our wagon to the Good Ole’ US of A. …
A cargo ship with 21 crew on board has lost power off the Royal National Park, south of Sydney.
The crew are stranded and will need to be evacuated by helicopter.
Severe weather battering Greater Sydney is making the rescue difficult.
”
citizensays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 9:10 am
Another resident of the Murdoch home for retired hacks continues to pontificate:
Left media’s wage push fails Economics 101
Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers will have a tough job re-educating the media class about the benefits of economic growth and the dangers of unfettered spending and unchecked inflation.
CHRIS MITCHELL (Oz headline)
”
Chris Mitchell
Unfortunately or fortunately (it depends the way you see it), that Economics 101 has to be rewritten, which says economics works for the people and not the other way round.
The current Economics 101 is at its wits end because of Climate change and natural disasters as a result of that. The Economics 101 never envisaged Climate change in its theory and calculations. And the world are at the beginning of climate change effects.
Unless you really want to witness ‘rapture’ in your life time, the Economics 101.
But the thing is overwhelming majority of people all over the world don’t believe in ‘rapture’.
theunaustralian.net @TheUnOz
BREAKING: NSW Premier Holds Emergency Press Conference To Announce That The State’s Number 1 Citizen John Barilaro Is Safe And Dry From Recent Flooding
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 10:11 am
andrew rickert
@_rockrit
#BREAKING: A cargo ship is adrift off the Royal National Park, south of Sydney. 21 crew will need to be evacuated by helicopter. Toll and Lifesaver + polair + military choppers all on the way.
@9NewsSyd
Pasha Bulkar 2.0?
”
The crew will not be rescued for the time being as per maritime office at NSW Premier Press Conference just now. Instead tug boats will be sent to pull the ship away from cliffs near Watermola beach.
Kos Samaras assessment is very wide of the mark, particularly about the “Teals”. There is no momentum for the “teals” anywhere for the state election like there was at the Federal election. The movement to find and promote candidates in electorates started in the middle of 2021. Also the Morrison government was on the nose badly but seem to be possibly heading towards re-election, which created the “need” for progressive types in leaf suburbs to take actioned.
The Guy lead opposition might cause a reaction in some seats but a lot of the territory covered by the 2 “teals” in Melbourne was already lost to Labor at the last election. The Labor government is still reasonable popular in those areas. There was a lot of tactical voting which help elect Daniels and Ryan by Labor voters and that is not going to happen in areas already in Labor hands.
I’ve been wondering what would be the best way for the Albanese Government to navigate a relationship with a second Trump (or first DeSantis) administration in the United States after the 2024 presidential election. And how the dynamics might play out with China, which may still be isolated from the world in it’s zero-COVID bubble by then.
Of course, the next election is due in Australia in the first half of 2025, so it all might be a moot point because it is fairly predictable how a Dutton Government would handle things. But say Albanese is elected for a second term either in majority or minority (say with Teals holding balance of power). What would be the most beneficial approach from the perspective of the Australian people?
Ideas?
I don’t know if people have no knowledge past 1980 or if they believe that if they wait another decade or two the trickle down part will actually start.
But we’ve got all the evidence: it is really really really bad.
But rather than look for something better people cling onto it. It is bizarre.
But then again our covid response is killing thousands and everyone seems happy with it and comfortable with the very real threat that long covid decimates work force participation and creates a massive burden.
And then NSW is flooded again but still as they watch the devastation people are more excited by jailing protestors than radical action.
MelbourneMammoth @ #116 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 11:27 am
Invest now in Thoughts and Prayers.
The tug (SL Diamintina) is at the Portland Bay but the ship is drifting at 0.8 knots towards the coast. Although has put down its’ anchors, these are probably dragging.
And there does seem to a be a copter on the way.
https://www.vesselfinder.com/
Things are happening so much faster these days . Now there is a hardy annual , blooming since forever. Although not as classic a vintage as ‘young people today………..’
There is no momentum for Teals in the Victorian election because Morrison is not involved.
Further on China, and noting Andrew Earlwood’s comments, the risk of another isolationist POTUS coming to power in USA is one of many reasons why I would prefer Australia went with the French or UK nuclear sub option rather than USA.
The SSN project is a long term build – at least 6 to 8 years each sub. SSN technology in the US is classified and requires Congressional approval to export. What if we commit to the US design, the POTUS changes, and Trump II changes his mind and says no export? Our naval shipbuilding plan would be wrecked.
Whereas with UK or France, once the contract is signed there are no more legal barriers. Plus, in the context of the UK (11) and French (10) SSN construction programs, another 8+ Aussie SSNs are a big deal, and very unlikely to be dropped once started. The USN is building 60+ SSNs, so Australia’s 8 would just be a distraction.
Interesting…
I agree with the assessments on the “teals”.
The “teals” won two federal seats that Labor had no chance of winning – Kooyong & Goldstein – so both Labor & Greens voters chose to vote tactically to ensure the ‘teal’ got into the top 2.
There would be no momentum for this at a state level because looking at the seats that most overlap this territory:
– Hawthorn is already narrowly held by Labor
– Labor were <1% away from winning Brighton with a 19 year old candidate and no resources
– Labor were <1% away from winning Sandringham, again with very little effort
– Kew is held by <5% by the Liberals, a teal would probably do the best there but still not win
A "teal" needs as many votes from Labor & Greens voters as it does from Liberal voters to win, and they have no incentive to vote tactically if Labor are already so close to winning, or in the case of Hawthorn already hold the seat.
BK – And John Kennedy is a much less offensive MP than Josh Frydenberg.
In Kew, there would have been more momentum if Dim Tim was still running. Now he just seems to be running for a Sky News gig (which he might actually be good at as he is actually a little bit progressive compared to the rest of the rants on there).
Venat 10:47 am
Rupert’s orcs ‘Economics 101’ is just an example of what this JK Galbraith quote below was pointing out. It’s why so
many ‘Demented plutocrats’ have been fans of certain ‘flavors’ of the Dismal Science.
BK @ #121 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 11:45 am
I’m not so sure.
There are a few ratbag Libs still who might be vulnerable to a sensible local Teal.
WWP at 11.30
I don’t know if people have no knowledge past 1980 or if they believe that if they wait another decade or two the trickle down part will actually start.
But we’ve got all the evidence: it is really really really bad.
But rather than look for something better people cling onto it. It is bizarre.
____________
Trickle down economics works superbly – for those at the top. What’s bizarre is the electorate buying the ‘aspirational’ bullshit that neo-liberalism can be good for them and they can ‘make it.’ The unwritten rules specifically prevent that sort of nonsense.
Socrates at 11.55
Further on China, and noting Andrew Earlwood’s comments, the risk of another isolationist POTUS coming to power in USA is one of many reasons why I would prefer Australia went with the French or UK nuclear sub option rather than USA.
The SSN project is a long term build – at least 6 to 8 years each sub. SSN technology in the US is classified and requires Congressional approval to export. What if we commit to the US design, the POTUS changes, and Trump II changes his mind and says no export? Our naval shipbuilding plan would be wrecked.
Whereas with UK or France, once the contract is signed there are no more legal barriers. Plus, in the context of the UK (11) and French (10) SSN construction programs, another 8+ Aussie SSNs are a big deal, and very unlikely to be dropped once started. The USN is building 60+ SSNs, so Australia’s 8 would just be a distraction.
____________
+1
While we’re at it, we may have to consider negotiating a nuclear weapons partnership with the French if the US goes substantially AWOL.
We do own about 40% (IIRC) of the world’s uranium, so there’d be ‘security of supply’ for the French.
Rex
If there’s no prospect those MPs will have any power at all, there’s no point spending the time, money and resources to get rid of them.
Poroti at
Venat 10:47 am
Rupert’s orcs ‘Economics 101’ is just an example of what this JK Galbraith quote below was pointing out. It’s why so
many ‘Demented plutocrats’ have been fans of certain ‘flavors’ of the Dismal Science.
“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith
____________
Outstanding quote from the late, great JKG.
He also once said, ‘Economics is useful in forming a source of employment for economists.’
zoomster @ #130 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:07 pm
Most of the funding for the federal Teal came from local donations. They were only seed funded by climate200 to get things started.
If the locals wish to kick in enough to replace their ratbag with a respected local Teal, the money will come.
BK at 11:45 am
The yanks do/did speak of a pollie having or gaining ‘The mighty Mo’ ‘ . Mo’ short for momentum. Now we have our own version. The Teals have a problem as they lack ‘the ‘Mo’ (rrison).
The Teals may not have ‘Mo’ there but they do have a Reichspud. Dutts would push alot of the Teal voter’s dislike buttons.
I’d love to see a progressive lefty style group start seed funding local independent candidates to take on some of Labors fossil fuel union puppets.
4 Corners has some bloodletting tonight..
Recriminations over the Coalition’s federal election loss have boiled over spectacularly, with senior Liberal Party figures engaging in a vicious blame game over the impact of factional infighting on the result.
Four Corners has spoken to dozens of Liberal Party members about the Coalition’s devastating loss, which has been blamed in part on the failure to preselect candidates in more than a dozen NSW seats until weeks before the election date.
The situation was further inflamed when a NSW party official, businessman Matthew Camenzuli, took the Liberal Party to court in a failed bid to force preselection votes for ordinary branch members.
Speaking for the first time about his actions Mr Camenzuli launched a broadside at former prime minister Scott Morrison’s representative in NSW, rival faction leader and then-cabinet minister Alex Hawke.
“I think the guy’s a cancer,” he told Four Corners. “I think Alex and the movement that he’s built is a cancer that has infected the party … and it needs to be excised. This cancer needs to be cut out.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-04/liberal-party-factions-war-federal-election-four-corners/101198202
Snappy Tom : “While we’re at it, we may have to consider negotiating a nuclear weapons partnership with the French if the US goes substantially AWOL.”
France sources most of its Uranium from Africa. True, it gets some from Oz, and there’s no reason to think that that trade can’t expand. But for now, Australia is not a primary exporter of Uranium to France.
Rex: I’d love to see a progressive lefty style group start seed funding local independent candidates to take on some of Labors fossil fuel union puppets.
“I’d like to see an imaginary cohort of people spend lots of money getting some other group of imaginary people to take on an imaginary group of people, and that is all I think about.”
FTFY
Rexy ol’ boy, without the ALP voters strategically voting for Teal independents, Teal independents get exactly nowhere. Your brainfart is akin to saying why oh why can’t ALP voters vote against the ALP?
It’s time for Albanese to get back home.
It’s time for Greens voters to realize that only a small rump crazies think like they do. They should be concentrating on what they do best… flag stunts.
Pi @ #137 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:20 pm
Teal voters vote for issues, not parties. Labor will find it is not immune.
lol. You can keep your LNP advice for the LNP people you vote for P1.
They were Labor voters. Not anymore. They want to keep the Libs out, so they’re lost to Labor.
Pi
“France sources most of its Uranium from Africa. True, it gets some from Oz, and there’s no reason to think that that trade can’t expand. But for now, Australia is not a primary exporter of Uranium to France.”
Ironically, France also supplies the LEU reactor cores for Australia’s only existing reactor at Lucas Heights. It also replaces the cores every ten years and takes the old ones back for reprocessing.
The cores for the Lucas Heights 20MW reactor are only slightly smaller than the LEU cores for the Barracuda SSN reactors. So much for France being “not-superior” option for SSNs for Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/17/australia-considered-buying-nuclear-submarines-from-france-before-ditching-deal-peter-dutton-says
The more I have looked at it, Australia and France combined could produce every element of an SSN program. Australia could even supply to France some of the state of the art elements of the Collins Class not yet on the Barracudas, such as the anechoic tiles and Nulka decoys.
Is today Neo-liberalism Day in the USA?
Rex: “They were Labor voters. Not anymore. ”
Sure Rexy. But hey, I’m happy for the greens muppets to believe that delusion for as long as they like.
sprocket_ @ #135 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:16 pm
This sounds like an episode for fellow bludger Aaron newton to enjoy.
Pi @ #141 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 12:25 pm
Dream your little dreams.
Me : lol. You can keep your LNP advice for the LNP people you vote for P1.
P1 : Dream your little dreams.
Cope harder about your Constance loss.
Doubt the teals will win any seats in the Victorian election since Victoria is at a different stage of the political cycle and this election is not about the Liberals because that was the last election but this election is about an eight year old state government trying to hold onto a big majority.