I would guess that Newspoll will return on the eve of the resumption of the parliament, which is still three weeks away. This is an off week for Essential Research; there may be a Roy Morgan poll, or there may not. Until then:
• Kylea Tink, the newly elected teal independent member for North Sydney, says she believes a new federal integrity commission should have the power to sack parliamentarians for sufficiently serious breaches of a parliamentary code of conduct; David Pocock, newly independent Senator for the Australian Capital Territory, says he would have “real concerns about an unelected body being able to dismiss elected representatives”. The federal parliament denied itself of the power to expel representatives through legislation passed in 1987, such power only ever having been exercised in 1920, when Labor MP Hugh Mahon made “seditious and disloyal utterances” regarding British policy in Ireland. Mahon then re-contested his seat of Kalgoorlie but was narrowly defeated, which remains the only occasion of a government party winning a seat from the opposition at a by-election.
• If you can’t wait another three years for my 2025 federal election guide, Robin Visser offers an online geospatial tool for examining polling booth results at the recent federal election.
Victorian state news to go with that related in last week’s dedicated post on the subject:
• Roy Morgan has results of a “snap SMS poll” of state voting intention in Victoria, showing Labor with a rather inplausible two-party lead of 59.5-40.5 from primary votes of Labor 43.5%, Coalition 29.5%, Greens 12%, United Australia Party 2% and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 1%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1710. A similar poll in November produced the same two-party result.
• Morgan’s result is at odds with a detailed assessment of the state of play by pollster Kos Samaras, who expects Labor to struggle to maintain its majority in the face of four to five losses to the Liberals, two to the Greens and others yet to independents. However, it’s also “extremely difficult to see how the Coalition get anything north of 38 to 40 seats” in a chamber of 88.
• Jane Garrett, who held a seat in the Legislative Council for Eastern Victoria region, died on Saturday of breast cancer at the age of 49. Garrett moved to the chamber from the lower house seat of Brunswick at the 2018 election, which duly fell to the Greens. She resigned from cabinet in 2016 after a dispute with the United Firefighters Union in her capacity as Emergency Services Union brought her into conflict with Daniel Andrews. Garrett announced last December that she would retire at the election. Labor’s ticket in Eastern Victoria will be headed by incumbent Harriet Shing, who was last week promoted to cabinet, and Tom McIntosh, a former electrician and (at least as of 2019) electorate officer to federal Batman MP Ged Kearney, who is presumably well placed to fill Garrett’s casual vacancy in the interim.
Also:
• As detailed at length on my live commentary thread, South Australia’s Liberals copped a 6.0% swing in Saturday’s Bragg by-election to add to the 8.8% one they suffered at the March state election, leaving about 2% intact from a margin that was 17.4% after the 2018 election, and had never previously fallen below 12.8%. The next by-election off the rank is for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central, to be vacated with the retirement of Nationals member Vince Catania. The Nationals last week preselected Merome Beard, proprietor of Carnarvon’s Port Hotel, whose BLT comes strongly recommended. Labor is considered unlikely to field a candidate, but the Liberal state council voted last week to call for nominations.
Socrates @ #45 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 8:26 am
Soc,
I don’t know, maybe my optimism was fuelled by an article by Perry Bacon Jr., of 538 fame, who wrote in The Washington Post recently that maybe the Democrats won’t lose the Mid Terms after all, due to the fact of the Jan6 Commission and the rulings by the SCOTUS. Such that, it won’t be your normal Mid Term, party of government, reversal election at all. As the most recent Quinnipiac poll in Georgia seems to indicate. I tend to find Nate Silver and the others at 538 a bit too conformist in their thinking. But hey, who am I to argue with the cognoscenti? That’s why I’m hoping that Perry Bacon Jr is right. 🙂
At least when people on Twitter ask #Where’sAlbo, he’s not around because he’s doing the job of a national leader, unlike Scott Morrison, who was in Hawaii or hiding away in Kirribilli House not wanting to front the media.
Frednk at 6.27
The AGE and the Herald sun will be disappointed for sure! Perhaps it will lead to a reflection on the service they provide.
____________
Associating the Costello and Murdoch organisations with the word ‘service’? OK, ‘service’ to some version of Right-wing politics might fit…
Secretary Pete for President in 2024!
Victoria
“ More will vote at the midterms.
The house and senate will hold.”
The trouble is, holding is not enough. The Democrats need to pick up a Senator to pass anything, with Manchin and Sinema not going anywhere. Things might change, but at present they are headed for a slide, the opposite of what you and Cat are suggesting.
I also think the Democrats badly need a clean out of aging politicians in their ranks. Too many 70+ Senators are neither representative nor effective enough. Diane Feinstein should have quit a decade ago.
Have a good day all.
The ch9 chopper flying over western Sydney with vision of the floods – wonder if the voters of Lindsay know what inaction by the Liberals has contributed?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-floods-live-updates-more-wild-weather-on-the-horizon-as-residents-told-to-evacuate-20220703-p5ayrc.html
Hollie Hughes is probably acting out the ‘Madam Lash’ fantasies of the privately schooled Tory men, all pearls and lipstick with a variety of ‘instruments of chastisement’ that they crave.
Also noted that the attention given in some quarters to the PM’s partner has reminded me of the partner that JBish used to parade around such as Exhibit A below:
How soon we forget!
I am intrigued by all the queuing at Sydney airport. It’s getting worse.
People are being told to arrive at the airport increasingly early, thereby overloading and poisoning the check-in process with all semblance of sequence destroyed. The worse it gets, the more the authorities call for patrons to come earlier again.
Unless some intelligent evaluation of the process and how to establish flow and balance capacity with load.
That it has progressed to this situation is an indictment on all the management concerned.
What is it with federal liberal party leaders taking holidays during natural disasters
Hugh Riminton
@hughriminton
Opposition Leader #PeterDutton is taking a holiday – back the week before the Opening of Parliament.
Its hard to reconcile how much rain is falling in NSW.
BK says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 8:18 am
Hollie Hughes is a time warp back to the 50’s.
______
And so is her hideous lipstick!
Yep. Bright red ; a thick layer. It yells 50’s, here I am, and proud of it. But the rhetoric. Marxist, the teachers have probable not read his work, let only be teaching it. My bet is it is nothing but a word for Hollie Hughes also. Such bullshit.
Have to admit I’m a bit skeptical of this poll. Whilst I agree is all but certain for labor to win a majority government, I find it unlikely that the ALP will win by a bigger margin than 2018.
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 8:17 am”
Yannis and others, such as the supporters of Modern Monetary Theory, should work a bit harder trying to offer a system that doesn’t get rid of what the majority of the people around the world see as the positive aspects of Capitalism (in its basic form: e.g. private property). Given the poor performance of the true Socialist left at so many elections around the world, in favour of parties and presidents that are more Social Democratic, reformists, progressive but not revolutionary, my conclusion is that it’s time to get rid of Neoliberalism, but its replacement can only be some form of Social Democratic Keynesianism, with an ecological update (Environmental Sustainability).
In my view, one of the keys to link big capital with a better deal for the workers (and unemployed) is a serious reform of the taxation system that has favoured the 1%, big companies and multinationals over the past 40 years of Neoliberal reforms around the world. During the Social Democratic period of the evolution of Capitalism (from the end of WWII to the early 1970s) the top tax rate was well over 70% in most Capitalist countries, including the USA. It was the Neoliberals who dragged that down, then shrunk government services, and attacked workers’ entitlements through a war against unionism and the spreading of individualism. All that can be changed, step by step, through subsequent reforms within a classic democratic system. The more people enjoy the benefits of the reforms, the more voters the Progressive governments will have, the more ambitious the reforms may become during the following term, etc. In my view, we are at about the starting point of this process, as suggested by so many election results around the world: recently in the USA, Australia, France, Chile, Colombia… and just wait for the coming elections in Brazil.
If Social Democrats fail to offer a satisfactory solution to the material aspirations of the majority, in a system that is also environmentally sustainable, the reaction is going to be swift and what’s going to come next as a replacement is probably some form of Nationalistic Authoritarianism, as we have already seen in the USA with Trump and are seeing right now with Putin in Russia.
C@t at 8.14
I mean, isn’t that what the SCOTUS has flagged? For states to be the masters of their own destinies?
____________
As long as said states pursue the Right sort of destiny…
BK @ #59 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 8:46 am
I’ve read that the issue is trying to replace the 15,000 (!!) airport staff shed during the Covid shutdown, with some messaging being come early, and other being everyone coming early is clogging the system.
BK, airport was asking yesterday to come 2 hours early and not more or less as the 2 hrs was the sweet spot that seemed to keep the system flowing.
As a teacher I used to squeeze a bit of Marxism in between organic chemistry and Newtonian physics in car crashes .
Windsor Bridge, Windsor live camera:
Snappy Tom @ #64 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 8:49 am
No, the Left sort of destiny. As various Progressive states have stated. It’s what the SCOTUS wants!
Jaeger at 8.34
Peter Hannam @p_hannam
Calls to lift Warragamba’s dam wall are being aired anew (eg on @2GB873). 14m adds c.1000GL capacity, costs several $bn and only traps about 1/2 floodwaters entering the Hawkesbury-Nepean valley (and permanently damages cultural + enviro values in 6000ha of World Heritage area.)
____________
If the wall is raised, will future govts be tempted to allow property developers to establish housing estates on lower-lying land? Of course not! Scouts’ honour!
Rep Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) tells CNN there are new witnesses who have come forward to Jan 6 Select Committee after the testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson
UK cartoons:
NZ:
About to take my son to QANTAS domestic for a flight to beautiful Adelaide to play in a football tournament.
Mrs Shellbell offered to come along in a way which suggested I should decline to accept the offer
Alpo,
Your theory, as manifest in the words of the federal government, simply put: make multinationals pay their fair share. 🙂
There will be a bona fide shit fight to the end in the USA.
The supreme court feral judges will do their darnest to give the states the power to overturn elections.
Dont know when a decision is due to be handed down. I guess it will be before the 2024 election.
C@t at 8.41
Secretary Pete for President in 2024!
____________
He did provide an excellent answer – and was sufficiently on top of the data to know that ‘late term’ abortions in the US account for 1% of cases.
I thought he was an impressive candidate in the last primaries, with a few strong early results. He just couldn’t develop a base among any non-white voting groups. That would be his challenge for 2024.
#weatheronPB
A single distant forlorn bark
fails to stir the grey still world.
Maybe the clouds will lift.
A bit of wind makes Sydney Airport a nightmare in its own right.
Another resident of the Murdoch home for retired hacks continues to pontificate:
Alpo at 8.49
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 8:17 am”
Yannis and others, such as the supporters of Modern Monetary Theory, should work a bit harder trying to offer a system that doesn’t get rid of what the majority of the people around the world see as the positive aspects of Capitalism (in its basic form: e.g. private property). Given the poor performance of the true Socialist left at so many elections around the world, in favour of parties and presidents that are more Social Democratic, reformists, progressive but not revolutionary, my conclusion is that it’s time to get rid of Neoliberalism, but its replacement can only be some form of Social Democratic Keynesianism, with an ecological update (Environmental Sustainability).
In my view, one of the keys to link big capital with a better deal for the workers (and unemployed) is a serious reform of the taxation system that has favoured the 1%, big companies and multinationals over the past 40 years of Neoliberal reforms around the world. During the Social Democratic period of the evolution of Capitalism (from the end of WWII to the early 1970s) the top tax rate was well over 70% in most Capitalist countries, including the USA. It was the Neoliberals who dragged that down, then shrunk government services, and attacked workers’ entitlements through a war against unionism and the spreading of individualism. All that can be changed, step by step, through subsequent reforms within a classic democratic system. The more people enjoy the benefits of the reforms, the more voters the Progressive governments will have, the more ambitious the reforms may become during the following term, etc. In my view, we are at about the starting point of this process, as suggested by so many election results around the world: recently in the USA, Australia, France, Chile, Colombia… and just wait for the coming elections in Brazil.
If Social Democrats fail to offer a satisfactory solution to the material aspirations of the majority, in a system that is also environmentally sustainable, the reaction is going to be swift and what’s going to come next as a replacement is probably some form of Nationalistic Authoritarianism, as we have already seen in the USA with Trump and are seeing right now with Putin in Russia.
____________
Ironically, neo-liberal economics creates its own destruction by abandoning so many to the predations of the market. The victims of neo-liberalism often then run to the far Right, which implements not neo-liberalism, but crony capitalism.
Could it be that neo-liberalism itself was a Big Lie all along – a smokescreen for the 1% to get the economy arranged for their benefit? Perish the thought!
I just listened to yesterday’s Insiders. I thought Senator Pocock sounded eminently sensible (I had no reason to think he wouldn’t) which was positive.
Despite Karvelas’ attempts to goad him, he didn’t make a huge fuss about staffing. It seemed he had bigger fish to fry and gave the impression he wouldn’t ‘let the perfect be the enemy of the good’.
@ Socrates831am
Love the new acronym. May I humbly suggest adding U ( unrepentant) to make LOTUS?
After all, it seems appropriate for an Opposition living in Lotus- eaters land , blaming stupid voters for the result and believing if they only hang in there, unrepentant in their belief of their divine right to rule , that the voters will come back to the fold in ’25.
Maybe there’s a Homeric theme to their current malaise, that of hubris and nemesis.
citizen at 9.10
Another resident of the Murdoch home for retired hacks continues to pontificate:
Left media’s wage push fails Economics 101
Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers will have a tough job re-educating the media class about the benefits of economic growth and the dangers of unfettered spending and unchecked inflation.
CHRIS MITCHELL (Oz headline)
____________
I love it! Another ‘test’ for Labor: ensuring the (presumably non-Murdoch) meeja have the ‘Right’ understanding of economics!
The electorate awaits the results with baited breath!
C@T
“ So, all hope is not lost and Australia should keep going in the Renewables direction.”
Agreed. Regardless of the SCOTUS/EPA decision, the simple fact is that renewables are cheaper. Even those who don’t believe in climate change can surely understand this clear fact.
Socrates
“ In SA Liberals now the crazies faction (dominated by RW pentecostalist Paradise church) now seems to be in the majority. You have to conclude this is one of the reasons the former Bragg MP Vicky Chapman resigned; she had introduced the legal abortion bill.
Labor and the Greens should highlight the parts of the Liberal party wanting to take Australia down a US Republican style assault on individual rights. Such a battle would be bad for Australian society.
Happily, with Teals and Greens now taking inner urbanLiberal seats, I think this is electoral suicide for the Liberals. Christian baptists and pentecostalists are 20% of the US population; they are less than 2% of the Australian population.”
It really seems that ideology and division is all the Coalition have to work with nationwide. They’re out of touch with Australian society and totally devoid of 21st century policy or innovation. Quite literally, they’ve got nothing.
The truth is out there …
https://michaelwest.com.au/gas-lies-as-super-profits-ramp-up-so-too-does-the-fossil-fuel-propaganda-war/
Beetaloo. Narribri. Scarborough. North West Shelf. Browse. When does it stop? It probably doesn’t, until the planet boils in its own greed …
Australia may have new players, but the game remains the same. Except it is us that is being played here, folks 🙁
Dog’s Brunch says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 8:13 am
“Many thanks BK , Hollie Hugh’s is branching out into vaudeville in this clip from ABC Insiders (YouTube) where she doubles down on the Marxist Teachers theme so beloved of her leader Der Spud. Is she trying to become the Oz version of Marjorie Taylor Green?”
https://youtu.be/Q_QjgLIrEnc
Very amusing indeed. Hollie Hughes is a genuine caricature.
The US could do a lot toward encouraging renewable production just by ending the staggering amount of fossil fuel subsidies currently contained in the US tax code. No direct regulation required– just get rid of the implied cost reductions that those subsidies enable.
The problem, though, is that this will further increase energy prices, which are already causing political tantrums among whiny American voters not accustomed to paying full freight for their energy usage. Imposing a windfall-profits levy on energy and pumping the money directly into renewables production might help some, but none of this is going to happen before the midterms.
If you listen carefully, you can hear the fossil fuel cartel singing … “Oh! what a lovely war” …
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-resources-exports-break-records-amid-global-energy-crisis-20220703-p5ayok.html
On the job. Doing the job. Well:
Emergency services minister Murray Watt on the NSW floods crisis:
Emergency services minister Murray Watt has been doing the rounds on the media this morning – he’s now on ABC News Breakfast. He’s talking about the federal government assistance that’s already been offered to New South Wales for the unfolding flood crisis, some of which we mentioned earlier:
What we have already done is approve two different deployments of ADF troops. So late on Friday night I approved two night-time helicopters from the ADF to be deployed and made available, especially for night-time operations. And also 100 troops. Some of them are actually involved yesterday in some of the evacuation activity, particularly around the Windsor area.
And then yesterday afternoon I approved an additional 100 troops at the request of the NSW government and they will become available from 8am today at 24 hours notice.
One other thing that we have also activated at the request of the NSW government is the European Union’s Copernicus emergency management system, the satellite system they use providing improved radar and visibility over the system as well.
Murray Watt is asked about financial or other kinds of assistance for people who have been affected again and again by floods:
All I can do is assure people in those regions that the federal government will be supporting them. This is a terrible thing for anyone to have to go through just once, let alone four times in 18 months. So I’m not surprised to hear that people are at breaking point.
Obviously there has been assistance provided, whether it be payments or mental health support, after past disasters in the region and I’m sure that we will be very generous in our approach this time as well.
The process from here is that the NSW government needs to formally declare a disaster. We are expecting that will happen pretty soon and that will trigger a whole range of federal and state government support, everything from disaster payments to further counselling support. But as I say, I assure people that their pain is really felt at the federal and state levels and we will be standing with people as they seek to recover going forward.
Cronus @ #83 Monday, July 4th, 2022 – 9:23 am
The beauty of it is, it will give Australia an economic advantage as well!
Popcorn time tonight:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-04/liberal-party-factions-war-federal-election-four-corners/101198202
Another election in Vic where the polls point to Labor doing great, while the pundits point to reasons why the electorate are angry and it’ll be a tight one?
African gangs were meant to cost Labor the last state election and anger at lockdowns were meant to spill over into federal and cost Albo seats. How’d that work out?
Ironically, neo-liberal economics creates its own destruction by abandoning so many to the predations of the market. The victims of neo-liberalism often then run to the far Right, which implements not neo-liberalism, but crony capitalism.
Could it be that neo-liberalism itself was a Big Lie all along – a smokescreen for the 1% to get the economy arranged for their benefit? Perish the thought!
Isn’t there a Greek word for that? A Kakistocracy of Plutocrats. The best stayed in business, pulling the strings of the worst, who went into politics.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 8:36 am
“At least when people on Twitter ask #Where’sAlbo, he’s not around because he’s doing the job of a national leader, unlike Scott Morrison, who was in Hawaii or hiding away in Kirribilli House not wanting to front the media.”
Albo’s holding the hose needed to put out Morrison’s foreign policy fires across the globe. Then he’s preparing to hold the hoses Morrison wouldn’t dare touch to deal with energy, climate change, the Voice and new submarines. So many bin fires left by Morrison but Albo and the crew are just dealing with them in a businesslike manner. Dialling down the rhetoric and dialling up the action. Now this is what I expect of government.
Just for the record
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.086%2C$multiply_0.9591%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_538%2C$x_100%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/aee6d78a948472485deeb8c4a38920b433ddf241#image.jpeg
(smh)
Mr Bowe, I think you haven’t commented at all on the Guardian Essential NSW poll that came out a couple of days ago. 37 Coalition, 32 Labor. No 2PP breakdown but at least it is something.
Voice endeavour
I would like to see other polls. The Morgan poll is a little too optimistic in my view.
Socrates
Albanse is a keen tennis player . Wimbledon has a week to go. The haters can’t wait to see if he goes.
theunaustralian.net @TheUnOz
BREAKING: ScoMo Scoffs At Albo Visiting The Ukraine, Saying: ”That’s Nothing I Once Visited The Hostile Seats Of Kooyong & Warringah.”