YouGov: 50-50 in Queensland

A new poll finds the Greens the chief beneficiary of a significant drop in support for Queensland’s Labor government, though Annastacia Palaszczcuk continues to be viewed favourably.

The Courier-Mail has results from a YouGov poll of state voting intention in Queensland showing Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Labor government and the Liberal National Party opposition tied on two-party preferred. This compares with a result of 53.2-46.8 in Labor’s favour at the October 2020 election, and 52-48 in Labor’s favour at a similar poll in February. The primary votes are Labor 34% (down from 39.6% at the election and 39% at the February poll), LNP 38% (up from 35.9% and steady), Greens 14% (up from 9.5% and 10%) and One Nation 10% (up from 7.1% and 8%).

Annastacia Palaszczuk nonetheless retains net positive personal ratings of 45% approval (down five since February) and 39% disapproval (up three), while Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is up five on approval to 31% and down five on disapproval to 23%, with the uncommitted remainder of 46% suggesting an ongoing weakness in name recognition. Palaszczuk leads Crisafulli as preferred premier by 41-28.

Further questions on Palaszczuk, some tailored to reflect lines of criticism she has received recently (particularly from the News Corp papers), find 50% agreeing and 19% disagreeing that she “enjoys the high life” and 35% agreeing and 32% disagreeing that she is “easily influenced” (presumably by lobbyists). However, 52% agree that she works hard and 60% that she cares about Queensland, compared with 27% and 25% who disagree.

The poll was conducted from June 23 to 30 from a sample of 1044.

UPDATE: Further results from the poll in Thursday’s Courier Mail include a finding that Annastacia Palaszczuk is rated best Queensland Premier of the twenty-first century by 21%, compared with 20% for Peter Beattie, 17% for Campbell Newman and 12% for Anna Bligh. Asked who they would favour as Labor leader if Palaszczuk became unavailable, the runaway winner was uncommitted on 57%, followed by “someone else” on 17%. That left 11% for Steven Miles, 7% for Cameron Dick, 5% for Yvette D’Ath and 3% for Shannon Fentiman. After being required to accept the proposition that Queensland has a “health crisis”, 54% included state government mismanagement as a factor to blame, with COVID-19 and the flu on 52% and underfunding of aged care and disability places on 39%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

42 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 in Queensland”

  1. The premier obviously needs to take up the ukulele, cook some curries, assemble a few chook sheds, look like a slob and disappear when the going gets tough. That should keep Murdoch happy.

  2. If this poll is indicative, I don’t think Palaszczuk will be too concerned, having ‘enthusiastically welcomed Coaldrake’s review into public sector culture and accountability as “bold”, “comprehensive” and “exactly what I [she] want[s]”.’

    After Fitzgerald, most Queenslanders are concerned with the stench of corruption, in whatever form it takes. One of the most effective ways of to counter, for instance, the power of lobbyists is to release cabinet papers after 30 days – not 30 years.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/queensland-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-takes-steps-to-release-cabinet-documents-after-just-30-days-following-coaldrakes-report/ar-AAZ0Iln

  3. Historyintime says:
    Monday, July 4, 2022 at 7:50 pm

    I doubt Queenslanders care about a Premier who enjoys a good time.
    —————-
    That would depend on if they like the premier or not just like some people were upset by Morrison bludging on Hawaii but others didn’t care.

  4. Framing a polling question in emotive language about ‘enjoying the high life’ smells a lot like push-polling. Of course people are more likely to agree than not – it’s taking a shot at a politician! 50% agreement is thus a relatively low score!

    Note the ‘works hard’ question got 52% agreement – how does that square with the ‘high life’ thing?

  5. ‘Note the ‘works hard’ question got 52% agreement – how does that square with the ‘high life’ thing?’

    Hard working party girl. No one really cares if she is a bit disengaged for a bit.

  6. One Nation’s vote going up seems a bit hard to credit when they went backwards at both the state and federal elections. The Greens… well, that’s easier to believe. Any seat within the three federal seats they won would be a target. Assuming each federal seat corresponds to three state ones:

    Brisbane: McConnel (ALP), Cooper (ALP), Clayfield (LNP).
    Ryan: Maiwar (Grn), Ferny Grove (ALP), Moggill (LNP).
    Griffith: South Brisbane (Grn), Bulimba (ALP), Greenslopes (ALP)

    Of that lot: Maiwar and South Brisbane are already Green. Cooper and McConnel would be easy wins on federal figures, and the Greens came a close third in 2020 – they’ll be hard for Labor to hold.

    Greenslopes, Ferny Grove and Bulimba look like Green wins on federal figures, although the Greens came a more distant third in 2020. Bulimba’s a funny one: the Greens only got 13.4% in 2020, but would’ve won on federal figures (assuming Labor comes third, like they did in Griffith).

    The two LNP seats would probably stay that way, although Moggill might be close.

    Further south in Moreton, the Greens did well enough to make Miller possibly interesting. They’ve got over 20% last two state elections, so it’s on the list.

    2024 is a long way away, but if the Greens get a decent vote they’re a good chance for 4-6 seats. Maiwar, South Brisbane, McConnel, Cooper, maybe Moggill, and one other (pick any of the other Labor seats).

    If Greenslopes goes Green and Labor loses their majority, that’d make it a very special sort of bellwether. Four (and-a-half) parties over 60 years?

    __________

    Say all that happened, plus a 3.2% 2pp swing in the vanilla ALP/LNP seats – there’s seven seats under that margin (all outside Brisbane, for whatever that’s worth). Labor down 7 to LNP, another 3 to Green = 42. LNP up 7, but minus Moggill = 40. Assuming the rest of the crossbench stays the same:

    ALP 42
    LNP 40
    Grn 6
    KAP 3
    ON 1
    Ind 1 (Sandy Bolton)

    That would probably be a Labor minority govt, although a messy one that would have consequences for 2028 (and the 2025 federal election). All a long way off, though.

  7. I’m in Bulimba and for some reason the Greens ran pretty dead here at the last state and Council elections. The candidate, Rolf Kuelson, was an unphotogenic old bloke who I never really heard from outside of a few corflutes. No letter box drops or social media presence that I can recall. Stark contrast to what we got with Chandler-Mather. So that 13% could presumably have got a lot higher.

  8. Joeldipops: ” So that 13% could presumably have got a lot higher.”

    Or a lot lower, the more they learned about him.

  9. “Bulimba’s a funny one: the Greens only got 13.4% in 2020, but would’ve won on federal figures (assuming Labor comes third, like they did in Griffith).”

    Trust me. It is ALL about aircraft noise over there.

  10. I don’t see how the ALP could get too close to the Greens and retain its regional standing. Maybe if they were very close to a majority and just dared the Greens to vote against the Government in a vote of no confidence. But nothing formal.

    Anyway, eventually the LNP are going to win one.

  11. “Or a lot lower, the more they learned about him.”

    I meant with a completely different candidate, to be honest.

  12. “ Further questions on Palaszczuk, some tailored to reflect lines of criticism she has received recently (particularly from the News Corp papers), find 50% agreeing and 19% disagreeing that she “enjoys the high life” and 35% agreeing and 32% disagreeing that she is “easily influenced” (presumably by lobbyists). ”

    IMHO such tailored questioning detracts from the veracity of the polling, exactly the type of thing I expect from a poll commissioned by Murdoch.

  13. Cronus at 8.56

    …35% agreeing and 32% disagreeing that she is “easily influenced” (presumably by lobbyists). ”
    ____________

    The Murdochracy must be furious they couldn’t manufacture howling accusations of corruption out of that push-question!

  14. This is typical of the Courier Mail , it’s always been pro NLP ( nationals run the conservative party up here) but around 2012 it went rogue in its rabid dislike of the Labor party. Every day you walk past a convenience store you see headlines lacing up the ALP. Amazingly multiple watchdogs keeping an eye on the Qld government is not enough for the LNP/ courier alliance yet Scomoe needed no federal ICAC. The questions stated in this poll seem leading and well in line with current anti ALP CM headlines. When will this Murdochcracy learn it’s pathetic bias achieved nothing. The Queensland government has increased its majority at every election since the CM turned rogue. It’s pretty bad living in a town of 2.5 million that doesn’t have a reputable newspaper.

  15. The LNP may have gained some advantage, with Campbell Newman defecting to the Liberal Democrats. The LNP are trying to ‘denewmanise’ the party and it’s hard to do with Newman inside the tent making his commentary on Sky news. If David Crisafulli becomes premier it will be on time for a change. Crisafulli hasn’t had much cut through but the LNP doesn’t have any other alternatives to replace him. Jarrod Bleijie is too polarising and shadow treasurer David Janetzki recently quit as deputy for personal reasons. Janetzki may not be the right choice anyway. There isn’t much enthusiasm from Brisbane voters for a regional/rural leader after previous leaders Lawrence Springborg and Deb Frecklington failed to make inroads into Brisbane.

    Annastacia Palaszczuk has won three elections in the face of dire predictions by Tory’s in the comments sections on the Courier Mail website. I suspect this will be her last election even if she wins. Labor tends to handle succession plans better then the Liberals. The Liberals have had leaders John Howard and Colin Barnett outstay their welcome with voters.

    The Greens for Labor and even for the Liberals is a worry. While minor parties popularity can be a flash in the pan. The difference is the Greens will have federal members in some of those state seats they are going after to draw on for resources.

    Interesting times ahead…….

  16. Interesting times alright but most up here realise that the LNP is still pretty much unelectable. Unlike the Libs in NSW there are not enough moderates to win over the city. The ALP has a lock on most Brisbane seats and the Greens’ are proving just as big a threat to the LNP in socially progressive week heeled area in western Brisbane ( Ryan). The LNP will win at some stage but without Brisbane it would be a slim majority. Crisafulli might be from the south east but Gold coast and Brisbane are extremely different places. Crisfulli was also very close to Cando and most of the Cando crowd ( Bleiji, Bates, Nichols, Mander) still knocking out their pipes in parliament.

  17. The LMP don’t need Brisbane to win. The other path is through the ALPs 16 regional seats, all of which are winnable either for the LNP or a conservative independent.

  18. Qld Labor’s strategy seems to be to keep running further and further to the right to neutralize the LNP, to the extent that they now seem to be just about dropping any concrete plans whatsoever for carbon abatement, by 2030, 2050 or anything else. So yeah of course the Greens are gonna increase their numbers at Labor’s expense, and that could even happen outside Brisbane. But the real problem with endless triangulation is that eventually rank and file enthusiasm will melt away, and voters will start wondering what the fucking difference is between the major parties, at the state level at the very least. I agree with Historyintime, most of their regional seats could easily be lost to the LNP at a bad election, and they’re got few prospective gains to make up the losses.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/05/queensland-emissions-reduction-goals-blown-under-government-resources-plan-advocates-say

    Above is just the latest in a series of Qld Labor pasokification. If I was a Brisbane based ALP MP I’d be fuming. Not that I’d care about the substantive policy, no Labor MP is that trivial. But it’s going to be impossible to explain at the next election.

  19. “Qld Labor’s strategy seems to be to keep running further and further to the right to neutralize the LNP”.

    @Furtive Lawngnome

    The problem with your argument is you have picked one issue and made the predictable ‘both parties are the same’ argument. You ignored QLD Labor legalised abortion, brought in euthanasia, brought in more progressive vegetation laws, scrapped the Vlad laws, stopped the privatisation of the electricity industry, and brought back civil unions ceremonies that were scrapped by the previous LNP previous government.

    Your argument of ‘If I was a Brisbane based ALP MP I’d be fuming’. Is very simplistic and makes out that all Labor MP’s are just single issue politicians.

  20. They liberalised abortion and euthanasia extremely recently, when public opinion was so overwhelmingly in favour that their refusal to do so just looked obscene, even compared to the SDA controlled Labor parties interstate. As for privatisation, Qld Labor are responsible for most of it, especially power.

    In any case I dunno how you run on that in Cooper, McConnel, Greenslopes etc etc. They’ve got decent chances of picking up Currumbin, Burleigh, Chatsworth, Clayfield and Everton, less so Coomera and Glass House, but just about any of their seats they hold on 6-8% margins could easily flip back blue- they’ve kept a lot of them mainly by virtue of not being completely psychotic on COVID, so wouldn’t count on that being an election issue in 2024. And if the swing’s really on anything like it was in 2012, it could get much much worse.

  21. I’m with you political nightwatchman, green supporters like to harp on one or two issues, but with Cando and his mates fresh in my mind I can tell the lawngnome that there are other issues beyond brown coal ( as important as that is), this government has methodically worked on the issues you mention and as a public servant been a good sensible boss. No matter what the greens say they are not anything like the same and that’s an statement that sh*ts me to tears.

  22. from what i recall greens ran on free public transport, cannabis legalisation, public housing expansion, rent caps, reclaiming state assets and a new state public pharmaceutical company, in addition to halting new fossil fuel expansion. if qld labor are hoping to counter that with ‘we legalised abortion in 2018 and VAD in 2021’, all i can say is good luck lol.

  23. I would be surprised if the ALP won any seats at the next election. It’s already stretched tight in the regions, Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast. That just leaves the Gold Coast as an area of possibility, and there are 3 or 4 seats there that are winnable in a very good year. But with a Frderal Labor Government and a 10 year old State Government, why would it be even a good year?

    However, say its an average year. Maybe the Government defies electoral gravity and demographics agaun. Thats the last 30 years in Qld.

  24. if qld labor are hoping to counter that with ‘we legalised abortion in 2018 and VAD in 2021’, all i can say is good luck lol.

    Labor needs to govern for everyone and just can’t win by retaining a couple of seats the Greens will be gunning for in South East Queensland. And Labor needs to hold seats in Wide Bay, Central, North, and Far North Queensland. And if you think Labor best chance on retaining power in Queensland is by simply trying to out Green the Greens. I’m glad your not a Labor political strategist.

  25. Further to the ‘push-polling’ – I wonder if the ‘voting intention’ question was asked before, say, the ‘high life’ question.

    Little doubt that asking about ‘high life’ would detract a bit from Labor PV response.

  26. Enjoys the high may have been interpreted by some as enjoying being Premier and working hard in the job. The other numbers seem to back this interpretation. No matter how the Courier/ Murdochcracy spins this 50/50 is not that bad when people are not focussed on the contest. I just wonder when the courier Murdochcracy will work out that this type of rogue hyper partisan coverage is detrimental in a city where many can’t stand the NLP. Their motto used to be we’re for Qld when it should be we’re for the NLP.

  27. “As for privatisation, Qld Labor are responsible for most of it, especially power. ”

    Pray tell, what part of the power sector has been privatised?

    The Qld state government still owns most of the generators, all the poles and wires, and is the monopoly retailer everywhere outside SEQ.

  28. The media war against Anna and her ALP government has been relentless here in Queensland. They are throwing everything at them, and this includes Murdoch and Ch9.

    Result of this effort according to YouGov: 50% ALP….

    The one remaining under pressure seems to be Crisafulli….

  29. “Political Nightwatchman says:
    Tuesday, July 5, 2022 at 12:00 pm
    The LNP may have gained some advantage, with Campbell Newman defecting to the Liberal Democrats. The LNP are trying to ‘denewmanise’ the party and it’s hard to do with Newman inside the tent making his commentary on Sky news.”

    To “denewmanise” the LNP you have to change all the old guard. Newman was the leader of a disastrous government, but behind him was an enthusiastically supporting team. Many are still there. Moreover, apart from changing the faces, you have to substantially change the program and priorities. Good luck to the LNP now that the Qld ALP can offer policies that will have the support of the Federal ALP government. If the LNP gains government, state and federal relationships will be strained yet again.

  30. “Historyintime says:
    Tuesday, July 5, 2022 at 7:47 am
    I don’t see how the ALP could get too close to the Greens and retain its regional standing.”

    I agree that the Greens shouldn’t be the major focus of the ALP concerns in Qld (or anywhere else, for that matter). The important thing is that both parties are consistent with their principles and put the LNP last in their how to vote cards.

    The Greens are in the business of nibbling at the ALP primary vote, but the ALP is in the business of smashing the LNP and win government…. VERY different political priorities.

  31. To be honest, that’s not nearly as bad as I was expecting it to be.

    Bit concerning for the state government, sure, but even more so for Crisafulli: the Courier Mail and the opposition have been throwing everything they’ve got at the government over the last six months, and while the government has taken a hit, basically none of it has gone the LNP’s way.

  32. Alpo:

    To “denewmanise” the LNP you have to change all the old guard. Newman was the leader of a disastrous government, but behind him was an enthusiastically supporting team. Many are still there. Moreover, apart from changing the faces, you have to substantially change the program and priorities.

    Yup.

    Every LNP leader that has come after Newman was a member of his ministry and an enthusiastic supporter of his government's agenda, with Nicholls and Frecklington holding portfolios directly responsible for some of that government's most loathed actions.

    Until they can elect a leader who wasn’t part of the Newman government, with a ministry mostly consisting of post-2015 MPs, the state LNP are going to continue to struggle in South-East Queensland.

  33. Interesting to read posters going on about the LNP Opposition having the Merdeocracy and Ch 9 on side here in Qld.
    Have they been watching Stokes’ Ch 7 lately?
    It seems Crisafulli has a guaranteed 5min spot on 7 news every night. Add Ch 7 to the Opposition supporters list.
    But, as was pointed out, even in a Merdeoch- sponsored poll, with obvious leading questions, the LNP still couldn’t get ahead. No Labor or Greens voter would countenance taking part in a CM poll either.
    Just plain suss.
    To win an election comfortably, the LNP have, repeat, have, to take a fair few urban seats in SE Q. as well as Labor seats in the regions.
    For ’24, short of a major collapse in the Labor vote, for the LNP and its Can-do leftovers, it’s a case of ” tell ’em they’re dreaming”
    ’28? Maybe. But they’re going to have to get closer to Labor in numbers by then.
    Time will tell.

  34. “Have they been watching Stokes’ Ch 7 lately?”…. Isn’t Ch7 in Qld now part of the Nine Corporation, just like Ch9?

    But yes, I agree with you that Ch7 is all “LNP my love”…..

  35. Dandy,

    I was referring to the retail energy market, which is really less a market and more a corporate rent-seeking free-for-all using, as you say, government infrastructure. Labor introduced it.

    But plenty of power generation in Queensland is corporate owned, and other than rooftop solar generation, it’s probably the majority of renewable energy if this map is anything to go by https://electricity-generation-map.epw.qld.gov.au/#results

    State government owns Ergon, Energex, CS Energy and Stanwell, but most of their capacity is in coal; they get slugged when fossil fuel commodities spiral out of control, like they did a few weeks ago, and pass the cost down the chain. If Labor wants to run on its stewardship of the electricity grid, where their lethargy towards building new renewables capacity has directly resulted in double digit hikes in electricity prices, when miners are making obscene profits while paying negligible royalties on the resources they extract here and sell overseas, again I have to say: good luck with that

    PN,

    ‘And if you think Labor best chance on retaining power in Queensland is by simply trying to out Green the Greens. I’m glad your not a Labor political strategist.’

    Caring even slightly about the fate of the planet *is* governing for everyone. But perhaps there might even be a third way between outgreening the Greens and playing the Matt Canavan tribute band

  36. Furtive Lawngnome: “Caring even slightly about the fate of the planet *is* governing for everyone.”

    By relentlessly attacking the ALP to put the LNP in power the greens only govern for themselves.

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