I would guess that Newspoll will return on the eve of the resumption of the parliament, which is still three weeks away. This is an off week for Essential Research; there may be a Roy Morgan poll, or there may not. Until then:
• Kylea Tink, the newly elected teal independent member for North Sydney, says she believes a new federal integrity commission should have the power to sack parliamentarians for sufficiently serious breaches of a parliamentary code of conduct; David Pocock, newly independent Senator for the Australian Capital Territory, says he would have “real concerns about an unelected body being able to dismiss elected representatives”. The federal parliament denied itself of the power to expel representatives through legislation passed in 1987, such power only ever having been exercised in 1920, when Labor MP Hugh Mahon made “seditious and disloyal utterances” regarding British policy in Ireland. Mahon then re-contested his seat of Kalgoorlie but was narrowly defeated, which remains the only occasion of a government party winning a seat from the opposition at a by-election.
• If you can’t wait another three years for my 2025 federal election guide, Robin Visser offers an online geospatial tool for examining polling booth results at the recent federal election.
Victorian state news to go with that related in last week’s dedicated post on the subject:
• Roy Morgan has results of a “snap SMS poll” of state voting intention in Victoria, showing Labor with a rather inplausible two-party lead of 59.5-40.5 from primary votes of Labor 43.5%, Coalition 29.5%, Greens 12%, United Australia Party 2% and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 1%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1710. A similar poll in November produced the same two-party result.
• Morgan’s result is at odds with a detailed assessment of the state of play by pollster Kos Samaras, who expects Labor to struggle to maintain its majority in the face of four to five losses to the Liberals, two to the Greens and others yet to independents. However, it’s also “extremely difficult to see how the Coalition get anything north of 38 to 40 seats” in a chamber of 88.
• Jane Garrett, who held a seat in the Legislative Council for Eastern Victoria region, died on Saturday of breast cancer at the age of 49. Garrett moved to the chamber from the lower house seat of Brunswick at the 2018 election, which duly fell to the Greens. She resigned from cabinet in 2016 after a dispute with the United Firefighters Union in her capacity as Emergency Services Union brought her into conflict with Daniel Andrews. Garrett announced last December that she would retire at the election. Labor’s ticket in Eastern Victoria will be headed by incumbent Harriet Shing, who was last week promoted to cabinet, and Tom McIntosh, a former electrician and (at least as of 2019) electorate officer to federal Batman MP Ged Kearney, who is presumably well placed to fill Garrett’s casual vacancy in the interim.
Also:
• As detailed at length on my live commentary thread, South Australia’s Liberals copped a 6.0% swing in Saturday’s Bragg by-election to add to the 8.8% one they suffered at the March state election, leaving about 2% intact from a margin that was 17.4% after the 2018 election, and had never previously fallen below 12.8%. The next by-election off the rank is for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central, to be vacated with the retirement of Nationals member Vince Catania. The Nationals last week preselected Merome Beard, proprietor of Carnarvon’s Port Hotel, whose BLT comes strongly recommended. Labor is considered unlikely to field a candidate, but the Liberal state council voted last week to call for nominations.
Send in Carrie Mathison to take out Vlad.
“Australia Institute@TheAusInstitute
“The economy is supposed to serve the people, not the people the economy. And we sometimes get that confused.”
– @JosephEStiglitz
on @abc730
.
Professor Stiglitz is touring Sydney, Hobart, Canberra, and Melbourne in July 2022 courtesy of @TheAusInstitute
. #auspol”
Good to see Josepth Stiglitz. one of my favourite non-fascist economists, in town to comment on policy. This is timely, since we now have a non-fascist government again. I will be interested to hear what he has to say.
Snappy Tom and Shellbell
World in Union, what an inspirational piece.
The UN is not hamstrung on Ukraine because of Russia’s veto – it’s hamstrung because of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
It is entirely possible for the UN GA to take action in spite of a permanent security council member’s veto. And they did – to berate Russia and implore them to stop their invasion. But military options were never even put on the table, I imagine for the same reason a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine was never on the table.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_377
Barney in Cherating says:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 5:11 pm
“It is ridiculous that a veto country can start a war and then veto any UN response against themself.
I think you’d call it a conflict of interest.”
Agreed, the UN is terribly anachronistic. Having served under the blue beret on two occasions, I’m of the firm belief that the only thing it has going for it is that it’s better than nothing. Or was at least but now it seems to border on useless and appears no longer suited for purpose given that it’s so easily undermined.
I have no better solution I should add and I suspect that in this extremely divided world that perhaps no universal solution currently presents itself. It was a product of extreme times and so it’s successor might well be borne of the same, I hope not.
Ch 7 news – Apparently Perrottet does hold a hose, at least for PR purposes. He is shown hosing down flood debris from a driveway.
Poroti
Thanks 🙂
Albanese has a determined look.
And he’s clearly seen things in the past week.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jul/07/australia-news-live-fourth-covid-booster-nsw-floods-jacinda-ardern-dominic-perrottet
FWIW, several more ministerial resignations this morning in the UK.
The Northern Ireland secretary, Brandon Lewis; the security minister, Damian Hinds, the science minister George Freeman, the Treasury minister Helen Whatley, the pensions minister Guy Opperman, the technology minister Chris Philp and the courts’ minister James Cartlidge all handed in their notice early on Thursday morning.
They do say leadership can be a lonely experience.
citizen @ #1357 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 5:52 pm
Never waste a crisis.
Wranslide @ #1303 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 4:06 pm
A sincere apology to us all will suffice. 😉
(Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner, I’ve been trying to wrangle a new Smart Washing Machine which is telling me I’m washing some shoes, when I’m actually washing the sheets. ) 😆
Re Cronus @5:44 ”…[The UN] was a product of extreme times and so it’s successor might well be borne of the same, I hope not.”
My thoughts too. Its setup reflects the immediate postwar world, even the pre-Cold War world, with permanent Security Council seats and vetos for the old imperial powers Britain and France as well as for the emerging superpowers. That’s not going to change. No one will give up their seat or their veto, nor allow any new members a veto.
But the UN we have is better than nothing.
Aw, I want to see Putin looking ridiculous in a Batik shirt!
” Aw, I want to see Putin looking ridiculous in a Batik shirt!”
Maybe he’s worried that Albo might shirtfront him…
Would it also not be the case, as per the machinations of the 1922 Committee of the UK government atm, that the UN General Assembly could meet and vote to change the rules, in order to remove a Permanent member of the Security Council, who commits war crimes? Thus disabling their veto power?
I call on Albo to include Abbott in our G20 delegation, so Abbott may now deliver a ‘shirt front’ to Putin!
Any reform of the Security Council would require the agreement of at least two-thirds of UN member states in a vote in the General Assembly and must be ratified by two-thirds of Member States. All of the permanent members of the UNSC (which have veto rights) must also agree.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council
Steve777 @ #1364 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 5:59 pm
It sounds like PM Albo might do just that!
Steve777 @ #1367 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 6:05 pm
Bugger. 🙁
They sure didn’t draft their constitution very well then. It’s a Catch 22.
Boris gone.
Re Boerwar at 4.57 pm
Indonesia is not a credible mediator between Russia and Ukraine for one reason: it lacks any influence over Putin, and Putin is clearly not inclined to negotiate the way things are currently going in Donbas.
Currently the best prospect as a mediator is Turkey. Negotiations occurred in Instanbul in March. Lavrov was in Turkey a month ago. Turkey has just seized a Russian ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain. Turkey controls which ships may enter the Black Sea, hence it has some potential leverage.
It is unlikely that Indonesia will join the ICC soon, but that is for domestic reasons, namely a culture of impunity for perpetrators of crimes against humanity. If Indonesia joined the Court then some future Indonesian perpetrators could face a potential prosecution over such crimes in West Papua, and the likelihood of that recurring is high.
Putin’s disinclination to negotiate could be affected by growing disaffection with his war in Russia. Here is a recent statement from a priest in Belgorod, which was recently hit by a Ukrainian attack:
‘Now, though, a senior figure in the Russian Orthodox Church has spoken out for peace. Following the explosion in Belgorod, Metropolitan Ioann of Belgorod and Stary Oskol said it was time “to turn swords into ploughshares”.
On the website of the Belgorod Diocese, he wrote: “We humbly pray that the deceased find peace and that the injured heal. We pray for an end to the bloodshed that is taking place on Ukrainian soil, but which has today come to our homes too.”‘ (end quote)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62042455
Borexit!!
Trump gorn.
ScoMo gorn.
BoJo gorn.
Good!
Boris Johnson has agreed to resign, but wants to stay on as PM until new Tory leader elected by autumn
Boris Johnson has agreed to resign, the BBC’s Chris Mason reports. He says he wants a new Tory leader to be in place by the party conference. He wants to stay on as PM until then.
(The Guardian)
BK @ #1368 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 6:17 pm
Hopefully Putin will be next.
”
Jackolsays:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 5:43 pm
The UN is not hamstrung on Ukraine because of Russia’s veto – it’s hamstrung because of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
It is entirely possible for the UN GA to take action in spite of a permanent security council member’s veto. And they did – to berate Russia and implore them to stop their invasion. But military options were never even put on the table, I imagine for the same reason a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine was never on the table.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_377
”
All 5 Permanent members of security council have nuclear weapons.
So does it imply that they can do what they want to do?
Oh wait…..
nath says:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 1:37 pm
a r says:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 1:28 pm
nath @ #1254 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 12:50 pm
The problem is who is going to decide what is factual and verifiable. It is an impossible task.
We all do. It’s not as hard as you make it sound.
________________
I think it’s incredibly difficult. A bit easier in the case of the two extremes you have posted.
Here’s another scenario. In the 1920s, it was considered factual and verifiable by the vast majority of Australians, including politicians and medical experts that Aboriginal Australians were incapable of responsibly exercising the vote. To publish anything contrary would have been against the law, as you wish it to be.
I’d much rather Freedom of the Press as we have it now, where evidence can be provided and contested, rather than some nebulous system of verifiable truth you seem to have invested in. If such a body, perhaps the Ministry of Truth, gets in to the hands of your political opponents, you might consider that sub-optimal.
___________________________________________________________
In the 1920s, stating that Aborigines possessed capacities equal to white Australians, might not have been widely held as true, but even then, it probably would have been accepted as a valid opinion.
There is a difference between publishing opinion and reporting what is alleged as fact. The same holds now, or should do.
Sky News is quite entitled to state that no one should ever vote Labor. It’s another thing to “report” the government’s policies will cause a recession, at least without providing some independent evidence.
I am somewhat in favour of laws prohibiting the reporting of lies as fact or other misinformation, but there are problems with it. Any such allegation of wilful misinforming the public would have to be proved beyond reasonable doubt, otherwise it comes close to limiting free speech. Defamation laws provide some remedy to wilful inaccuracies, but not everyone has access to expensive lawyers and defamation is not always easy to establish.
There are no easy answers. I think the best thing is to call our bias and partisan reporting whenever we can and do our best to support quality media.
Boris may be going but the enablers linger on
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/07/anger-boris-johnson-prime-minister-democracy
They could be going from the frying pan to the fire:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/07/anti-green-mp-steve-baker-considering-running-for-pm-if-boris-johnson-goes
Trump gorn.
ScoMo gorn.
BoJo gorn.
__________
Clowns, the three of them! Damaging ones.
Boris going just gives the British another Conservative PM!
Just announced on Sky that Boris is expected to resign today.
nathsays:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 6:25 pm
Boris going just gives the British another Conservative PM!
————————————
Who is Murdoch pumping for Nath?
Dr John says:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 6:28 pm
nathsays:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 6:25 pm
Boris going just gives the British another Conservative PM!
————————————
Who is Murdoch pumping for Nath?
_______________
Another Tony Blair 🙂
”
nathsays:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 6:25 pm
Boris going just gives the British another Conservative PM!
”
Stating the obvious. Did anyone on PB said otherwise or did you expect anything else?
David Panton dumps JBish … in a restaurant …
“ For a man who accompanied Ms Bishop to the United Nations, the Melbourne Cup, the Mexican wedding of TV host Karl Stefanovic and dinner with the heir to the British throne, Mr Panton has shown what appears to be an enormous lack of respect.”
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/hook-ups-break-ups/poor-form-julie-bishops-ex-david-pantons-big-breakup-mistake/news-story/75877275a286fc952a276ded3d5c20fe
BK @ #1381 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 6:25 pm
So good!
Oliver Sutton,
Meh, turns out property develops have standards. JBishop doesnt deserve that much respect.
Sir Henry Parkes at 6.22
I recently sent feedback (not a complaint) to the ABC, suggesting their reporters need to sharpen their language to ensure they remain independent of any govt.
Example: instead of ABC reporter saying “The govt will…” it should be framed “The govt says it will…”
OK, I’m a pedant!
Liberal party phone survey just answered. press 1 etc and so on. Didn’t ask the right question. Can the religious nutters get elected in Victoria. Matthew Guy is not the problem. He I think is a decent guy who is trying to tun a rabble.
Agreed. But unfortunately we can’t write trump off just yet. Fingers crossed that the Republicans end up seeing him as too much of a risk to give him another chance in 2024.
nathsays:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 6:29 pm
Dr John says:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 6:28 pm
nathsays:
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 6:25 pm
Boris going just gives the British another Conservative PM!
————————————
Who is Murdoch pumping for Nath?
_______________
Another Tony Blair
__________________________________
More wars again suits Murdoch media therefore ?
Some questions PB’s resident lawyers.
What happens to Witness K? If his case continues, can Colreavy represent him?
If Witness K needs a new lawyer, wouldn’t the new laweyer be exposed to state secrets like Colreavy was?
Bystander @ #1392 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 6:42 pm
Yeah that’s true. He’s not really gone yet.
It must be said that the Blair conservative government was very successful.
Granny Anny, maybe they wouldn’t even be allowed to comment on the case… Judges can be sticklers like that sometimes.
Re Cat at 6.18 pm and 3 out of 4 RW nasties gorn (with Putin the next to fall?)
What is the link between the UK Tories and Putin’s Russia, apart from loads of cash?
Complete denial about the extent of their Covid mismanagement. See the toady’s letter to Johnson from Nadhim Zahawi, a former oil boss who was Minister responsible for Covid vaccination in the UK.
He lauds the departing PM for “our handling of Covid”. On official figures only three west European countries have a worse per capita death from Covid figure than the UK: Italy, Belgium and Greece. Of those only Italy is actually worse, because Belgium has used a wider definition of those who have died from Covid, and the Greek health system was substantially ruined by a decade of EU austerity edicts.
That’s an interesting point Pi. The case was discontinued by the AG, so it’s likely that Colreavy won’t have to attend that court room ever again. I wonder if he is allowed to discuss what they did to him.
Apparently you have not heard of the ‘mobster with a mobster’. scandal that engulfed Guy at the last election. You can be sure that Labor will make sure that everyone is reminded of it come November.
Oliver Sutton @ #1381 Thursday, July 7th, 2022 – 6:30 pm
He made his money through her connections and now he’s off.