Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Evidence that late deciders are breaking to the Coalition, but Labor maintains a solid lead in the final Ipsos poll.

The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.

Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.

UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 34 of 37
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  2. William Bowe says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:04 pm
    “I’ll be in a broom closet at Nine in Sydney, off screen.”

    And do you get to come out of the closet at any stage?

  6. bug1 says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:57 pm
    Alex Dyson (Teal) in Wannon has had the best campaign ive seen down here, he is just one of those great talkers, has a presence etc.

    I think it might come down to him vs Tehan rather than ALP vs Tehan

    I have a feeling that wherever a presentable, credible Rebel/No-Longer-A-Lib runs they will have an excellent chance. For many a long year Lib-loyal voters have stuck with their team more from a reluctant sense of duty than from enthusiasm. They have been utterly taken for granted by the idiots – the evangelicals, the con-artists and careerists, the reactionaries and laissez-faire ideologues – that have taken possession of their Party. Their number is up.

  8. In general, I predict Asian-Australians to swing to Labor this election.

    The LNP made a calculated three-dimensional chess move predicated that sacrificing votes from this demographic was worth the greater number of gained votes in low-education white communities through racist dog whistling.

  11. In one of my previous places of employment there were said to have been interesting encounters in a broom closet back in the day.

  12. William Bowe says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:04 pm

    I’ll be in a broom closet at Nine in Sydney, off screen.

    Sweeping all before you.

  16. William Bowe at 7:04 pm

    I’ll be in a broom closet at Nine in Sydney, off screen.

    Getting kitted up for your quidditch debut ?

  17. Alex was saying on a live chat that there are some oldies telling him they voted for him, there is some inter-generational word-of-mouth going on.

    If he is doing that in any meaningful way, its more likely to be taking votes from Libs.

  19. happyezsays:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:11 pm
    “Labor will win Boothby and Swan, says Chris Uhlmann.”
    Love this. Add two Teals to this and before we start, the numbers are: L/NP 73, ALP 71 (given that one seat was redistricted to nominal ALP).
    Just a little thought there.

    What about Hawke in Victoria. Doesn’t that have to be thrown in somewhere? I can’t see the Liberals winning it.

  22. Victoria says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:09 pm

    No rain in Melbourne town, but cold nights ahead. Brrr……
    中华人民共和国
    Georgeous day here. Now down to 30c. Humidity is high as occassional Thunderstorms.

    I remember the 1990 Federal Election Upnorth. We had a Tropical Low cross on Election day and got 12 inches (300mm) of rain during the day. HTVs were a bit damp!

    They had to dealy the Kennedy vote as the booths got washed away. Rob Hulls was elected. Labor did well in QLD. Let’s hope history repeats!

  23. sprocket_ says:

    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:00 pm

    From Kate McClymont…

    [‘Fun defamation fact: Craig McLachlan and Ben Roberts-Smith have the same law firm acting for them in their defo matters: Mark O’Brien Legal.’]

    They’ve taken instructions in two suits that even Dershowitz would have trouble with. I think it’s a case where both applicants have not been upfront, even economical with the truth. They will (O’Brien Legal) however will be well & truly be rewarded for their services.

    ________________________________________

    Great optics: Gillard on the hustings with Albanese, Malinauskas, in Boothby, polling suggesting that women are viscerally turned off by Morrison, which I think – hope – will make a difference to the election outcome.

    ________________________________________

    Although probably not changing many votes, it’s nevertheless of interest that Payne agitated for an increase of nearly $1.5B in aid for the Solomons but had her submission rejected by the suites in the National Security Committee. And the question arises, who leaked this at the eleventh hour? My guess, Dutton.

    ________________________________________

    As for those who’ve tested positive for C.19 & therefore are not permitted to physically vote, this should’ve been foreseen by the government. I think a large percentage will be denied the right to exercise their civic obligation.

    _______________________________________

    Dear Late Riser (thanks for taking this on), would you please record my predictions thus: Labor 79 seats; the Cons 64; independents 6; and, the teal candidates, 2. As for what time Green will make his prognostication, I don’t know given the historically large number of postals and prepolls – unless that is, a swing’s on.

    ________________________________________

    I asked old Ray (82) tonight (had to shout as he forgot his hearing aids), a lessee in the trailer park, how he thinks the election will pan out. He said, “Better the devil you know.” I also enquired of old Violet (82), who agreed with old Ray. I’m sure their responses aren’t indicative?

    ________________________________________

    Itza, good post re. the difficulty of coming out, particularly in a profession that once thought that being gay was a malady.

  24. I see here that people are again talking about democracy sausages. I have been voting for over 50 years, I have handed HTV card, in 1974, also in 2005, 2007 2011 and 2013. From Wentworthville in Sydney, Bundaberg in Qld and Yamba NSW. Not once in all the 50 years have I seen a BBQ cooking near a polling booth. The closest I have seen is some ladies with a cake stall.

  28. ‘Muskiemp says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:17 pm

    I see here that people are again talking about democracy sausages. I have been voting for over 50 years, I have handed HTV card, in 1974, also in 2005, 2007 2011 and 2013. From Wentworthville in Sydney, Bundaberg in Qld and Yamba NSW. Not once in all the 50 years have I seen a BBQ cooking near a polling booth. The closest I have seen is some ladies with a cake stall.’
    ===============================
    Shy sausage effect?

  30. It looks like ScoMo is going to do it – waste an entire day in WA. Dumbfounded. Has he given up on the East Coast?

    His minders vetted this for raw meat, but as they say “two ears, one mouth.”

  31. Bystander @ #1669 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 7:14 pm

    happyezsays:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:11 pm
    “Labor will win Boothby and Swan, says Chris Uhlmann.”
    Love this. Add two Teals to this and before we start, the numbers are: L/NP 73, ALP 71 (given that one seat was redistricted to nominal ALP).
    Just a little thought there.

    What about Hawke in Victoria. Doesn’t that have to be thrown in somewhere? I can’t see the Liberals winning it.

    I am in Hawke. New seat assumed ALP safe. Raf Epstein said he had been talking to people at a new shopping centre and hardly found a ALP voter. Practically no campaign from anyone but the ALP guy so I doubt that is reflective of whole electorate

  33. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:03 pm

    ‘Snappy Tom says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:52 pm

    Boerwar, do octopi use an 8-based counting system?

    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10?’
    ============
    Nope. Octal system.
    ————————————
    ’10’ is actually the way you write 8 in octal.

    BTW, there are 10 types of people in the world.
    Those who understand binary, and those who don’t. 🙂

  36. Make of it what you will

    “Labor and the Country Liberal sources are predicting their candidate will take the vast outback Northern Territory seat of Lingiari, which pundits believe could decide who forms the next government.

    The Territory’s two federal seats – Lingiari and Solomon, covering Greater Darwin – have long been marginal, with Labor’s outgoing MP, Warren Snowdon, managing to retain Lingiari for over two decades.

    Solomon has tended to change hands in accordance with the ­national mood.

    The Territory’s normally sleepy election contests hosted repeated visits from both federal leaders and enjoyed pledges of hundreds of millions of dollars.

    The federal Nationals, supporting the Country Liberals, see Lingiari as their best hope for a win.

    Betting odds late on Friday favoured Labor’s Marion Scrymgour over the CLP’s Damien Ryan, $1.25 to $3.75, to take Lingiari. But on-the-ground reports suggested a low Aboriginal turnout could significantly narrow Ms Scrymgour’s margin.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-labor-neck-and-neck-in-pivotal-outback-seat-of-lingiari/news-story/28c4459d1bc08cc2cdf1481b0086f783

  37. China’s central bank cut a key interest rate while keeping another unchanged, an unexpected policy shift that economists said would likely help the country’s moribund housing market but bring only limited relief to its struggling economy.

  38. Good evening PB cobblers. Feels good tonight, doesn’t it? To know the campaign is done, and it’s just time for the great unwashed to vote, eat a snag, and then sit back and wait for the numbers to roll in.

    It’s been a heck of a ride, these last 6 weeks (let alone the last 3 years). Whatever happens tomorrow, I have no regrets about Albo’s campaign. It’s been virtually flawless. This time 3 years ago, I couldn’t say the same thing about the Shorten campaign. So if he doesn’t win tomorrow night, it wasn’t for want of trying. Can’t see there being a scathing post-election review coming out.

    Albo deserves to win. I’ve done my bit to help. Volunteered for the Reds. Donated a decent chunk of change. Bought some merch. Now it’s over to the Australian people.

    Ready with my fellow PB Piss heads to crack open some frothy cold ones at 6pm tomorrow night. ABC on the telly, PB on the laptop. Going to be a big night.

    For tonight, however, it’s the 7:30 Albo interview then I am cracking a bottle of red and watching Keating The Musical. I always tear up when they get to the Light on the Hill song.

    Keep on believing in the Light, True Believers. It’s gonna get brighter tomorrow.

  39. William Bowe @ #1612 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 7:04 pm

    I’ll be in a broom closet at Nine in Sydney, off screen.

    _______________________________________
    Under the stairs? With Harry?

  40. Described as the ‘Election Whisperer’, Data strategist Elisa Choy has
    used big data and artificial intelligence to give her final election
    prediction following 24 hours of intensive analysis of voter sentiments.
    According to this analysis, Saturday’s election will see history in the
    making for Australia with
    • 13 new Independents sweeping in to power (17 independents
    in total),
    • the Liberal/National Coalition government suffering a net loss
    of 19 seats,
    • and Labor forming a minority or slim majority government with
    at least 76 seats (a net gain of at least 7 seats).

    Not very bright AI

  42. Just got an email from ‘LiberalHQ’ , begging for my vote:

    Dear voter,

    We’re writing to you because your choice at this election is important for Australia’s future.

    The pandemic has been very tough.

    However, on almost any measure – economic growth, jobs growth, debt levels, fatality rates or vaccine rates – Australia’s recovery is leading the world.

    Treasury predicted unemployment could reach 15%. This week, unemployment fell to just 3.9% – the lowest level in nearly 50 years.

    The recent Budget showed the largest turnaround in Australia’s finances in over 70 years.

    The Liberal plan includes more jobs, lower taxes, better roads, cleaner energy, record health investments, and stronger national security.

    Australia is turning the corner. Now is not the time to risk it.

    Labor has confirmed they will deliver higher debt and deficits. That means higher taxes.

    Labor has recently argued for higher taxes – on retirees, housing and families. Mr Albanese has argued for an inheritance tax.

    Mr Albanese has stumbled on economic details. He’s just not up to the job.

    We’re asking you to back our plan. For how to vote information, click here.

    With your support, the Liberal team will deliver a strong economy and a stronger future.

    Yours sincerely,

    Liberal HQ

  47. William Bowe at 7:04 pm

    I’ll be in a broom closet at Nine in Sydney, off screen.
    _____________
    You need a celebrity agent. Create a bit of a bidding war.

    you need an offsider, someone for you to play the straight man against. ‘The Poll Bludgers’!! Develop a schtick, some routines.

  49. Listened to the Elisa Choy’s analysis that Victoria linked.
    She is predicting either a Labor minority or very small Labor majority.
    She is also predicting between 13 and 17 new independents winning from the Coalition. That is a lot.
    Scott from Adelaide

  50. If 17 independents are being elected it means there is a swing on and therefore Labor will do much better than 7 seats. Most AI uses a learning process and this clear has not been learnt by their system.

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