The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.
Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.
UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.
Ill tip Newspoll 54-46
Reposting the tables, a lot in here…
Will tomorrow’s newspoll have the characteristic extra digit we’ve had in past final poll? If so I’m tipping 51.5 to alp.
34 and 33 for primaries is so low…
Rudd puts the extra $7.4b in Labor’s costings in some context. I’ll say this for the man, he certainly has always been a good communicator.
https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1527207020344246274
Ipsos “looks” right. Which is always a dangerous thing to say.
Pretty good to be on 49-40 with 11 undecided on the unforced numbers with the Libs relying on the strong break of undecided voters in their favour seen in 2019 just to get to 53-47. This is not 53-47 based on some half assed dividing the undecided the voters up the middle shit that some people here do when evaluating polls with an undecided.
The media apologists saying “but Albo’s gaffe on day 1 was actually relevant to whether he’s across his brief and Scott’s gaffes are just misstatements!” can shut up now. The “borders are closed” thing was obviously talking about the recent past and how that has affected the Labor market and they’re just shouting gaaaaaaffe, while Morrison’s actual factual error on trans surgery for minors vanished into the ether. I’m glad to see a few media people finally realising how awful their colleagues are, if a bit little and late.
ltep @ #3 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:43 pm
Yes, but in line with the general trend over the last 20 years away from the major parties.
Concerning reading for them, but good news for democracy.
Kevin Rudd claimed it the morning of the 2007 election as he did yesterday campaigning in Melbourne during a sky news interview where he gave it to them and their Murdoch puppeteer:
“There is a feeling of change in the air”
I can also feel a whiff of this in the air- an informal, colloquial yet fairly accurate way of reading the electorate.
Ipsos has just confirmed this and I think we can breathe easy.
Colloquial indicators are everywhere- for instance have a look at all the comments in Andrew Constance’s face book posts- a historically conservative rolled gold Liberal seat of Gilmore and the comments are running 9/1 pro Labor and highly critical of the BS LNP claims.
Then you’ve got rumours of the RAAF VIP squadron having a business jet on standby at Mascot so Albenese and Wong can be flown to Yarralumbla in the early hours of Sunday morning to be sworn in so they can attend the security conferences. It invokes the spirit of the last two man government to be speedily sworn in to get down to business- the great, tall man himself.
lib/nats combined primary vote around 35/36% likely to get into the 50’s in seats
Even though this isn’t a Newspoll prediction site, I expect it to be ALP 38, LNP 36 and Green 11 so no change and 53/47.
Malcolm Mackerras predicting a bare Labor majority of 76 seats, 1 Green gain and no Teal gains. One term Albo?
‘Pi says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:40 pm
Boerwar: “Except for the countries that had exemptions, of course.”
And now you understand how negotiations in good faith work. The ozone is healing because of them. We don’t get positive outcomes when we’re Mr Creosote telling everyone they need to go on a diet.
Glad we had this chat’
——————————————–
Of course I know how negotiations in good faith work. I have been directly and personally involved in three sets of international negotiations.
The international negotiations worked in ‘good faith’ when India and China held a gun to the world’s head so that they could continue to INCREASE their CO2 emissions. Modi has subsequently promised to try to get Indian coal burning up by another 250 billion tons a year. Nothing he has said since has contradicted this.
But, back to the original point from which you seem perpetually keen to depart:
The claim that the Liberals would get the world temperature to 3 degrees, Labor would get the world temperature to 2 degrees and the Greens and Teals would hold the world to 1.5 degrees is both a scientific and a political lie.
Stated preference is effectively 55 to 45
sprocket_
I think you could be right about the afr holding back the Ipsos poll so it that it wouldn’t make the 6pm news.
I’m tipping Newspoll 51.8/48.2 tomorrow (their last one is to a decimal place usually from memory) – and it will be released before the 6pm news for maximum effect!
D
Very interesting story about telling prospective voters that a Federal ICAC is at stake. Hope your idea filters through
What do you mean by the Revisionist?
Arguably a remotely believable 4-point Coalition bump in PV, but I doubt it….this is a bloodbath and Morrison will never recover
And yes, I have 18-month old wagers on a Labor win…but most importantly looking forward to a return to honest, competent government, for the people – in very tough times
Not likely Freya – 80+ seat win is on track
Boerwar: “India and China held a gun to the world’s head so that they could continue to INCREASE their CO2 emissions. ”
Like Australia.
China has done a damn-sight more in implementing renewables than we have here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China
” In early 2020, renewable energy comprised about 40% of China’s total installed electric power capacity, and 26% of total power generation.”
We can start criticizing their co2 emissions when we generate less per capita than they do.
Will be interesting to see Labor’s primary in Newspoll, with 39 and 38 in the previous two polls.
I believe it’s on, come Sunday we will have a majority Labor Government. These figures confirm it.
Itep
Stated preference is 49 to 40 2pp with 11 undecided
Assuming they fall in line it would translate to 55 to 45
A 3.5 drop for Labor in 1 NP would have knobs all over it imo
@ Freya Stark
You mean one term Morrison?
Mackerras hasn’t had his finger on the pulse since Keating tossed Hawke.
Serially incorrect in his predictions.
I’ve no idea how it’s going to play out, and honestly even a Coalition majority wouldn’t shock me after 2019.
But there does seem to be a sniff of herding in this weeks polling. Perhaps the pollsters adding a little extra hedge to reduce the chance of over representing ALP in their polls after the last Federal election?
The ‘it’s too close to call’ commentary though seems to be based on more wishful thinking and pushing a narrative than the actual polling numbers. We had the same talk in SA a couple of weeks ago. Qld was supposed to be close before that. Dan was going to lose skin in Vic. Makes for more interesting press than “the ALP are gonna win even bigger than the polls say” but not particularly illuminating.
Thank fuck it’s soon going to be over. If democracy is the worst form of government (apart from all the others), then election campaigns are the worst way to for a democratic government (apart from all the others…
… maybe)
Pi says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:48 pm
Boerwar: “India and China held a gun to the world’s head so that they could continue to INCREASE their CO2 emissions. ”
Like Australia. China has done a damn-sight more in implementing renewables than we have here.
==================================
THAT point is about your spurious point about ‘negotiating in good faith’. It did not happen in the climate agreement.
But, back to the original point from which you seem perpetually keen to depart:
The claim that the Liberals would get the world temperature to 3 degrees, Labor would get the world temperature to 2 degrees and the Greens and Teals would hold the world to 1.5 degrees is both a scientific and a political lie.
And before you rotate back to my being a bad person, I fully support that Australia must stop emitting 1.8% of the world’s CO2.
I am glad we’ve had this chat about the Greens huge scientific and political lie.
from previous thread
Ticktock @ #897 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:51 pm
Back from dinner, so apologies if already answered.
As far as I know “a r” created a plug in for Firefox but I’ve not used either. The C+ extension for chrome is called “PB Comments Plugin”, so perhaps you can search the equivalent extension library for Firefox. ??
One question may be whether the Liberal primary has a 2 or a 3 in front of it.
For Ipsos
Kevin Bonham has 53.6%
Australian election forecast has 53.7%
By their calculations
Interesting the AEF model forecast is 54.2% for the final Ipsos so pretty close
They are tipping 53.6% for final Newspoll so if the model is out by say 1% we are looking very solid for 80+ seats
Before…
And after…
😀
Shane there was a 3 point drop in Ipsos, though.
What time does newspoll normally drop? morning or afternoon
Participation data?
Simply the one off unemployment figure is useless, on a raft of criteria including the method of calculation
That said, we did change the methodology to reflect the international criteria
Subject to the analysis of the inputs the only use is the trend line
And 1974
Noting unemployment was at 12% by 1980
How good was Whitlam
Thank you Howard – you stuffed the place and you have continued to stuff us ever since
May your Party implode
Rhino, Newspoll is expected tomorrow evening.
Boerwar: “THAT point is about your spurious point about ‘negotiating in good faith’. It did not happen in the climate agreement.”
Yes it did. The agreement reflects the co2 emissions per capita of China and India, which is a fraction of what it is in oz and every other industrial nation. Your argument is the pure essence of bad faith. People who do less damage need to make larger cuts because there are more of them. It’s pathetic.
I’m not a greens supporter. I work in designing and building energy infrastructure and have for decades. Your arguments are the arguments of trumpkins.
Ratsak how do you define “herding”?
The newspoll before the 2019 election was released in the afternoon.
Done.
Deal.
I’ll take it.
53/47 is a landslide!
What was Ipsos just prior to 2019. – does anyone know?
Correct – the logo is “C+”, but the name is “PB Comments Plugin”.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin/
I’ll take it.
Malcolm Mackerras predicted a Liberal victory in the recent SA state election. ‘In my opinion, the Liberal Party is more likely to win such a number (of seats) than Labor’. Based on that, I’ll take his prediction for this federal election with a grain of salt.
https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/sa-election-likely-to-be-a-cliffhanger/
Ipsos 2019 was
Lnp 39%
Alp 37%
Green 9%
Onp 3%
Other 12%
Lnp 2pp 49%
Alp 2pp 51%
Final IPSOS in 2019 was 51/49 with primaries of 39 (Coalition) to 33 (ALP) and 13 for Greens.
Too low for Coalition and too high for Greens.
It appears they did pick up that early votes were more favourable to the Coalition than remaining votes.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/ipsos-poll-shows-election-contest-tightens-to-51-49-20190516-p51o6t.html
Lynchpin says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:59 pm
What was Ipsos just prior to 2019. – does anyone know?
—————
16 may 2019
Labor 51% – Primary vote 33%
lib/nats 49% – Combined primary vote 39%
@Lynchpin
“What was Ipsos just prior to 2019. – does anyone know?”
Last ipsos in 2019 was 51 – 49 to the ALP, although the LNP was still sitting on a 39% PV, compared to the ALP on 33% PV.
This time it’s looking far more solid for Labor (fingers crossed it’s true on the night and we can all rest easy with morrison and co being turfed out awaiting calls from a fed ICAC)
Pi says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:56 pm
Boerwar: “THAT point is about your spurious point about ‘negotiating in good faith’. It did not happen in the climate agreement.”
Yes it did. The agreement reflects the co2 emissions per capita of china and india, which is a fraction of what it is in oz and every other industrial nation. Your argument is the pure essence of bad faith. People who do less damage need to make larger cuts because there are more of them. It’s pathetic.
I’m not a greens supporter. I work in designing and building energy infrastructure and have for decades. Your arguments are the arguments of trumpkin’
==========================
Personal abuse. They threatened to scuttle the whole agreement. Blackmail is not negotiating in good faith.
There is NO WAY that Australia could persuade India and China to stop increasing their CO2 emissions in good faith or in bad faith. There is therefore NO WAY that ANY Australian political party can get the world’s temperature to a 3, a 2 or a 1.5.
But, back to the original point from which you seem perpetually keen to depart:
The claim that the Liberals would get the world temperature to 3 degrees, Labor would get the world temperature to 2 degrees and the Greens and Teals would hold the world to 1.5 degrees is both a scientific and a political lie.
And before you rotate back to my being a bad person, I fully support that Australia must stop emitting 1.8% of the world’s CO2.
So without getting to excited about it, who thinks the liberals will splits and we’ll end up with teals. uber libs and nats.
“34 and 33 for primaries is so low…”
That’s with don’t knows. Ipsos have always given noticeably high 3rd party and others readings. It is going to be interesting to see how that pans out. The Teals mean there SHOULD be elevated IND votes this time you’d think.
This narrowing is really alarming because it means Labor/Greens will have difficulty gaining “progressive senate control” (William Bowe’s words: https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/11/labors-two-state-wish-list-for-progressive-senate-control/)
Arguably Greens voters should be voting tactically for Labor in the Senate (as much as it pains me to say that).