Federal election minus two days

Intelligence from Goldstein and Fowler, plus a detailed survey on the gender electoral gap and related political attitudes.

The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:

Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.

• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.

• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,043 comments on “Federal election minus two days”

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  1. Even Freya is stymied as it is all down to Newspoll now because Ipsos is a ‘Labor leaning poll’…
    Thus, 5 out of 6 formal polls – two of them at 53-47 – must be shonky ‘cos they are not Newspoll..
    Ipso facto the only poll which will ‘get it right’ is Newspoll …..
    Good luck with that Freya…………You have just condemned the majority of the polling industry for being duds……

  2. Interesting that as we’ve moved from real polls based on data to herded polls based on the vibe, the greens vote hasn’t moved.

    It looks like the polling execs actually believe their models in predicting a swing to the greens even despite the teals taking a significant chunk of vote in some seats.

    Maybe it’s not important. The execs are idiots anyway. But if I were trying to fudge the numbers to make it less likely the poll underestimates the lib 2pp, I would have taken the greens down to their last election performance.

  3. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:25 pm


    You said there was nothing we can do. We export fully one quarter of world exports.
    Of course there is something we can do.

    “86% of the world’s coal reserves are somewhere else.” Oh look a squirrel’
    Personal abuse.

    Not that Greens furphy. You have heard of substitution or don’t you move much past your habitual abusive condescension?

  4. Laura Tingle@latingle
    · 6h
    Sorry. But this is embarrassing for my profession


    What is a Profession?
    The Australian Council of Professions defines a ‘Profession‘ as:

    A Profession is a disciplined group of individuals who adhere to ethical standards and who hold themselves out as, and are accepted by the public as possessing special knowledge and skills in a widely recognised body of learning derived from research, education and training at a high level, and who are prepared to apply this knowledge and exercise these skills in the interest of others.

    It is inherent in the definition of a Profession that a code of ethics governs the activities of each Profession. Such codes require behaviour and practice beyond the personal moral obligations of an individual. They define and demand high standards of behaviour in respect to the services provided to the public and in dealing with professional colleagues. Often these codes are enforced by the Profession and are acknowledged and accepted by the community.

    Being a member of a Profession, e.g. a ‘Professional‘, is generally seen as an indicator of integrity, ethics, trust and expertise.


    Don’t worry Laura, you and your lot don’t qualify. Embarrassing? Sure. A Profession? In your dreams.

  5. And the confirmation at 51 that more than half the Australian people disapprove of Scott Morrison.

    Has always been a big hurdle for the LNP to jump, not putting his mug on any corflutes – Labor is doing everything it can that this is a referendum on ScoMo.

    The social media and online sites are awash with Morrison’s face in paid for Labor ads

  6. “ two of them at 53-47 – must be shonky ‘cos they are not Newspoll..
    Ipso facto the only poll which will ‘get it right’ is Newspoll …..”

    Newspoll is the only one that is right is a comment that has been made by a lot of Labor supporters today though.

  7. Boerwar: “No Party in Australia can get the global temperature to 3 degrees, 2 degrees or 1.5 degrees.”

    By that same rationale we would still have a hole in our ozone because of CFC’s. CFC’s were phased out by countries agreeing to do that, and the ozone is well on its way to healing.

    What needs to happen is for the people who are doing the worst damage, and have done the worst damage for a century or more, aka us, to stop doing so much damage. Then, and only then, can we assist others in reducing emissions PER CAPITA for everyone. Right now, you’re Mr Creosote stuffing his face until he’s puking all over the joint, and then telling everyone else they need to go on a diet.

  8. Heh. The Ipsos data could be seen at above 53 ALP on the other measures (by stated preference or 2019 preferences). Seems to make sense given the seats being visited by the leaders. I’m expecting 52-48 or 53-47 from Newspoll tomorrow.

  9. Voice Endeavour

    Assuming that the Teals have done elsewhere what Pocock has done to the Greens vote in the ACT (cannibalized it significantly) and assuming that the polling is accurate and that the Greens have picked up 1-2% nationally, THEN, the Greens increase MUST be concentrated in the non-Teal seats AND the increase in Greens votes in non-Teal seats is likely to be significantly higher than 1-2%.

  10. “I agree there are definitely Angel of Death references at least back to Exodus in the Judeo Christian tradition. But that is by no means all of them.”

    The name destroying angel applies to several similar, closely related species of deadly all-white mushrooms in the genus Amanita.

    Destroying angels are among the most toxic known mushrooms; both they and the closely related death caps (A. phalloides) contain amatoxins.



  11. ‘Pi says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:33 pm

    Boerwar: “No Party in Australia can get the global temperature to 3 degrees, 2 degrees or 1.5 degrees.”

    By that same rationale we would still have a hole in our ozone because of CFC’s. CFC’s were phased out by countries agreeing to do that, and the ozone is well on its way to healing.
    ‘By the same rationale…’ the Liberal Party would have got the ozone hole down to 70% of its former size, the Labor Party would have got the size of the ozone hole down to 60% of its former size and the good old Greens would have closed the hole down completely. Except for the countries that had exemptions, of course.

  12. Hearing online Labor ads in Perth in high rotation ..

    7Plus online here in Perth showed 2 ALP Ads during the 4pm News, in Hasluck so I assume they are able to target GHasluck based Ads usin IP Address and location in Windows

  13. Boerwar: “Except for the countries that had exemptions, of course.”

    And now you understand how negotiations in good faith work. The ozone is healing because of them. We don’t get positive outcomes when we’re Mr Creosote telling everyone they need to go on a diet while we continue to stuff our faces.

    Glad we had this chat.

  14. Itep…Not this Labor supporter……
    I think you are misreading the situation.
    I suspect most Labor supporters have regained some respect for Newspoll as it has been more on the mark than most in the last 12-18 months. However, none of us have forgotten how this so-called trusted poll got it so wrong in 2019 which still makes it fallible. Bit like the 737 Max I suppose….Hope that the bugs have been sorted out but now guarantees….
    So, you must be like your Liberal friend Freya who is pitching all your hopes on a miserable Newspoll for Labor?
    Could be, but does not make them accurate…….

  15. The participation rate?

    Simply, for a raft of reasons including the method of calculation, the one off unemployment figure is a nonsense

    Always has been

    Always will be

    The only use is the trend line and the underlying data driving that trend line

    And how good was Whitlam?


    By 1980 we had double digit unemployment

    Thank you Mr Howard

  16. Lynchpin says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:35 pm

    I guess Fumbles if all 11 Undecideds go to Libs they’d be in front. But that’s probably unlikely.

    Oh agreed, just an observation that final will probably come in closer to 52/48. Have to have miracle 2.0 to overcome all those undecideds, i guess, especially as 25% of voters will do prepoll, the pool is getting slimmer, just a bit hard to see a clear “Pathway to Victory” for the Pentacostals, to paraphrase a Hillsong TV show

  17. “If 200,000 have Covid and can’t vote, won’t that have an enormous effect on seats where only a few votes make a difference?

    How can you factor that in.”

    Going by the official figures: https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics, it looks like it will affect the 18-59 demographic the most, and females slightly more than males. Could be a real factor if the phone voting system gets overwhelmed or people get rejected even if they’re in iso.

  18. On Ch 7 news:

    Was fun to see Josh ‘TrillionDollarDebt’ Frydenberg invoke the debt and deficit mantra in relation to Labor’s costings.

  19. I’ve no idea how it’s going to play out, and honestly even a Coalition majority wouldn’t shock me after 2019.

    But there does seem to be a sniff of herding in this weeks polling. Perhaps the pollsters adding a little extra hedge to reduce the chance of over representing ALP in their polls after the last Federal election?

    The ‘it’s too close to call’ commentary though seems to be based on more wishful thinking and pushing a narrative than the actual polling numbers. We had the same talk in SA a couple of weeks ago. Qld was supposed to be close before that. Dan was going to lose skin in Vic. Makes for more interesting press than “the ALP are gonna win even bigger than the polls say” but not particularly illuminating.

    Thank fuck it’s soon going to be over. If democracy is the worst form of government (apart from all the others), then election campaigns are the worst way to for a democratic government (apart from all the others…

    … maybe)

  20. Snappy Tom @ #955 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:11 pm

    GlenO at 4.51 re replacement Senators…

    It is only a ‘convention’ for State Premiers to replace resigned/deceased Senators with one a) from the previous Senator’s party; and/or b) recommended by that party.

    Askin and Bjelke-Petersen were legally entitled to ignore this convention in their participation in the Tory conspiracy against Whitlam.

    “Entitled to ignore this convention” is overstating it. Even Joh paid some attention to it by nominating Pat Fields (a Labor Party member) over Colston. Ignoring it completely would have mean putting up a Country Party nomination.

  21. Ticktock @ #897 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:51 pm


    If you install C+ as an extension for Chrome you can block the low value commenters, trolls and other idiots.

    Is there an option for Firefox (the browser, not the commenter here) users?

    Back from dinner, so apologies if already answered.

    As far as I know “a r” created a plug in for Firefox but I’ve not used either. The C+ extension for chrome is called “PB Comments Plugin”, so perhaps you can search the equivalent extension library for Firefox. ??

  22. Player One @ #856 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:31 pm

    Queensland. Not just cooking the books … cooking the planet.


    Someone remind me. Which party is in power in Queensland?

    Ummm… you do realise that it’s a case of the federal government cooking the books, right?

    Queensland says 455,756 ha. The Federal government recorded it as 245,767 ha. It’s the federal government that has cooked the books (and the country, and the world).

    Basically, Morrison and his cronies have lied about the rate of land clearing in order to claim a bigger cut in net emissions, while doing absolutely nothing to actually reduce net emissions.

    And now you’re doing Morrison’s job for him, by trying to blame Labor for something the Liberals intentionally did.

  23. Matt31

    Nothing wrong with the DUP taking a small step in acknowledging a step in the right direction from the UK government. If someone had have said a year ago there would be legislation along the lines that has been drawn up, most would have said they were crazy. The bottom line still hasn’t changed. There won’t be a functioning government in Northern Ireland unless either that legislation is implemented, or the EU back down and come to an agreement satisfactory to unionism. I suspect we are going to land where this should have landed all along, and that all the EU bluff and bluster will amount to little. That is, no checks on goods moving within the rest of the UK to Northern Ireland, with checks only taking place if said goods are moving to the ROI. All the talk of trade wars should have been called for the bluff it is long ago. An EU initiated trade war with the UK would actually make inevitable the very situation that the EU say they are trying to avoid, a land border between the ROI and NI, policed and enforced by the EU.

    As someone with skin in this game, you do realise that you are proposing a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

    How will it be enforced? How many border checkpoints you propose to stop people “smuggling” goods between NI and the Republic. and please understand that this “smuggling” just means that you have crossed the border to do your grocery shopping. What about the people who have built their lives since 2001 on the seamless border, when both were part of the EU?

    So that you can understand the disruption in the lives of people on the Island of Ireland, let me ask you to think of it a different way.

    Have you ever been to Coolangatta? Quite a nice town on the Gold Coast. Some very nice Thai and Indian restaurants.

    Check this Google map reference:

    You will notice that the border between NSW and QLD runs through the Coolangatta CBD. It is seamless, excel in daylight saving time. Then, the time changes by 1 hour when you cross the road. Restaurants on the QLD side need to state that their opening hours are in QLD time, and visa versa.

    Ok, so the locals get used to it.

    But in NI, crossing the road means that you are in a different country. You are crossing a customs border. So, given the some 700 km of roads that wind over that border , how many customs checks are acceptable? Who will pay for the border checks? How long a queue is acceptable to people just going across the border to their home / job / medical appointment.

    I hired a Hertz car in Dublin four weeks ago. I had to state whether or not I was going to NI. If I was there was an extra charge. Totally different to hiring a car in 2019.

    I just do not get what the Unionists think they have to gain by putting a customs border, and inevitably some border-force-type outfit enforcing it, which will make it a police border, between NI and the Republic.

    You are throwing away the Good Friday agreement: so you can get your Jacobs Cream Crackers without inspection by the EU or something?

  24. ltep @ #959 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:13 pm

    “ It is only a ‘convention’ for State Premiers to replace resigned/deceased Senators with one a) from the previous Senator’s party; and/or b) recommended by that party.”

    This isn’t true. The constitution was amended in the 70s and the replacement must now come from the party that the former senator was elected as, and must be a member at the time they’re chosen.

    In addition, if someone is chosen by a Parliament and ceases to be a member of the party before they take their seat, the choosing of that person is deemed to not have taken place, and the state parliament must again choose someone. This is to prevent state parliaments appointing a member of the party other than the person selected by the party for the nomination. The parties invariably have rules that instantly expel someone if they are chosen by a state parliament without being the nominated candidate.

    I think you’ll find that the constitutional amendment was made in the 80s after Joh’s flouting of the previous convention.

  25. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:37 pm


    The problem with super is the lack of transparency from the funds re investment in fossil fuels.
    WRONG. I have Unisuper and all of it is in Global Environmental Opportunities. I am able to review the investments, including what companies are the top 20 that they invest in and in what proportion. I can change my investments at the drop of a hat (well, $10 actually). They have ‘Sustainable’ as well though I have not looked into that so much.

    You could try moving your super to Unisuper if that is an important consideration for you. It is no longer restricted to uni staff and family any more.

    To be sure, not all super funds are that transparent. I had some super in PSS (Commonwealth public service) and their only option for change was to move to cash. I also have USS (in the UK) and can’t find out what they invest in.

    So yes, try moving to Unisuper if you need to change to more environmentally friendly funds. They should be encouraged for making it so transparent.

  26. King Coal’s japes already cost us one ally. Another cost of continuing the trade, eg the defense implications – which will become more serious as consequences of climate breakdown emerge. Rolling famine, killing heatwaves. (The famine coming from blockading Ukraine is an ominous development, a potential starting point

    So what if there’s a lot of it, here and elsewhere? Only vested interest profits by mining more of it

  27. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #983 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:21 pm

    Interesting, the undecided are breaking slightly to the LNP according to the poll

    IPSOS number have been very stable over the couse, not like that other poll with absurd variations

    Whilst I have your attention Dr, that recommendation of Steersman was spot on,even better medicine than the Coles offering.So many thanks 🙂

  28. “OH said the booth was not too bad today.
    Started saying vote for a FICAC let’s clean up corruption.
    Couldn’t believe the impact on the voters.
    Another booth worker arrived & OH told him this was getting a favourable response.
    By knock off the chap said he couldn’t believe the difference.”

    Me on last phone bank of the campaign till 1/2 hour ago. 🙂 Generally got good responses, and quite a few who were genuine undecideds who wanted me to answer their questions. FICAC a clincher issue for a number of them. Definitely made em lean ALP i think and quite strong reactions.

    IPSOS i am cool with. To everyone out their campaigning tomorrow, well done and good luck. 🙂

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