The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
Dai Le Independent for Fowler
@dai_le
·
18h
Despite Labor’s attack on me via their text and voice messages across the electorate of Fowler, flowers and food from local residents, & volunteers support make it all worthwhile. #fightforfowler #makefowlerindependent #myfowlercommunity
Looks like Labor messed with the wrong person in Fowler.
Crying Fowl.
That could’ve been one of William’s headings in a less busy time.
I wonder if Albanese’s comment about the LNP making fun of his Italian family name, in it’s “won’t be easy under Albanese” ads, will resonate with many voters with non-Anglo names?
By the best, best use ever of a candidate’s name by the opposing party:
Sneddend
(Of Billy Snedden)
“Yes, it makes me sick looking at Canavan. He’s a tool.”
***
Well on that at least we can agree.
The problem is though that Labor has learned nothing from Adani – just during the last sitting period (the Budget week), Labor teamed up with the Coalition to reaffirm their support for fracking the Beetaloo Basin, the emissions from which will dwarf even that of the toxic Adani mine in QLD.
What’s more, not only did Federal Labor support the Coalition, the NT Labor gov is also working with the Liberals to support fracking the Beetaloo.
Arky:
Yeah his record is pretty shocking!
WWP: “Secondly in economies that are ‘smarter than fucking stupid’ they are transitioning to low carbon and green steel production. ”
What countries, and what percentage of the steel that they produce is from green energy?
rossco – the pollsters usually just ask if someone will vote for the Coalition. Or during the campaign, with candidates list closed, once they have the respondent’s postcode most of them give the respondent a readout of the actual candidates in their seat. There’s no point breaking it down into Liberal vs National because they are running in different seats, and in Queensland it is just one party the LNP.
“And it isn’t the greens that originate the fucking urgent necessaity of these things it is the fucking scientists who fucking know what they are talking about. ”
***
Yes, exactly. If you won’t listen to us, listen to them at least.
“LNP is practicing voter supression.”
Maybe. Usually that’s making sure only voters who don’t vote for you are unable to vote.
Here, it seems it’s just people with Covid. Which will include a load of LNPers.
Unless they have targetted those who are ALP and with Covid…
Here everyone. Save your scroll wheel.
https://twitter.com/AdamBandt
She might survive Covid, but I really hope she doesn’t survive the election!
Gilmore, as in Fiona , suspended also. Noticed that nice boy Andrew’s odds have moved southwards (hello P1) a tad.
happyez @ #859 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:28 pm
True – it could work against them I guess – I may not agree with how everyone votes but I want everyone to have a vote.
Asha @ #378 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:59 am
where did you get this from?
Queensland. Not just cooking the books … cooking the planet.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/19/australias-climate-data-to-un-questioned-as-study-finds-land-clearing-in-queensland-underreported
Someone remind me. Which party is in power in Queensland?
Two days ago Michael Pache, on reporting the election for the Nine outfit to 6PR radio, was so sure of himself that Albanese was “wasting his time” at the NPC because nobody listens to these events any more but Morrison was using his time better in and around Sydney electorates….
Morrison was still in Darwin at the time and Pache thought it would be the sensible time to come on another trip to Perth – But. no way says Pache……You (Sandgropers) will not be seeing him again.
Well, surprise, surprise we are stuck with him on the last day of the campaign….
So much for what so-called Political Editors know about anything…..
How does Pauline survive a hoax?
Tricot: Michael Packe is heard on 2GB in Sydney too, little more than a Liberal stooge.
So Scomo is in WA tomorrow and Albo is in South Australia and Victoria?
@Firefox:
“The problem is though that Labor has learned nothing from Adani”
Labor learned that climate change is a big issue that shouldn’t be turned into a referendum on a single coal mine more or less. It’s much easier for people to say “what’s one more coal mine which may not even produce much coal” than to say “let’s do nothing at all about climate change”. The Adani campaign let the Coalition off the hook complete with their do nothing approach because the argument became about ONE COAL MINE.
It is the biggest fucking error in the history of environmental campaigning in this country, and thankfully I think the Greens brains trust DID also learn it even if they publicly profess the Adani campaign and the convoy and all were a smashing success, because the Greens haven’t repeated the mistake this time.
Also Labor learned that you can’t just keep saying “trust me” to working class people whose focus is on keeping their jobs this week and feeding their family tomorrow, not on climate change over the next few decades, if you’re going to talk about eliminating the industry that provides jobs for them and their town you have to offer them a plan for the future and care for their communities. This one the Greens I don’t think have learned because they don’t need to, they aren’t interested in winning those seats.
What have YOU learned from Adani, Fire-Fox?
“What countries, and what percentage of the steel that they produce is from green energy?”
So your second question is the wrong question, it should be how close can we get to 100% green steel by 2030.
And you know the biggest variable in that equation- customer demand. Same for green hydrogen, noone knows the brown / blue / green demand projections because it is unclear whether idiots or scientists win this thing and whether cheap and dirty is allowed to fuck with the planets future.
One Country for consideration is Germany, one producer to look at Salzgitter AG group but there are others.
happyezs at 5:32 pm
Easy peasy, Invermectin ,a dose of hoax cure clears up hoax diseases in no time.
@Lars: Oh yeah, Labor made SKY NEWS run audio of Dai Le openly talking about owning the Cabramatta branch of the Liberal Party, making a mockery of her “independence”. We all know Labor and Sky News are joined at the hip. That was Labor messing with Dai Le, totally.
No wait, Dai Le challenged Sky to play the audio if they had it, only it turned out they really did!
Maybe Dai Le is just a bullshit artist and Liberal stooge and doesn’t like getting found out?
“It is the biggest fucking error in the history of environmental campaigning in this country”
***
Labor’s position can be described as such, yes. Sitting on the fence got them nowhere and they have still learned nothing from it. Years later they are still pretending to care about the climate crisis when all they are really doing is making it much worse.
“BKsays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:20 pm
Pauline will be OK. Clive Palmer sent her a course of ivermectin.
—————–
and they’re both starting in the 5th at Randwick tomorrow
“What have YOU learned from Adani, Fire-Fox?”
***
That you can’t trust Labor on climate.
WWP: “Secondly in economies that are ‘smarter than fucking stupid’ they are transitioning to low carbon and green steel production. ”
Me: “What countries, and what percentage of the steel that they produce is from green energy?”
WWP: “Blather. Deflect. Obfuscate.”
It’s a simple question WWP. Let me give you a hint to the answer. The number starts with a zero.
barney @ #874 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:40 pm
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?
Glad to hear that Blowhard will be coming to Perth tomorrow. Should increase the chances of a couple of WA seats flipping to Labor. Probably worth a % or two to ALP in Hasluck and Tangney (don’t mention Curtin).
What happened to Briefly? He was a stalwart last election. is he still with us or too scarred from 2019?
I am wondering how morale is in WA Labor circles.
And what is with all this greens advertising material on here??
Reading about the personal feud between Simon Holmes a Court and Frydenberg. I’m pretty certain that if he doesn’t get Josh this time he will be back again with more money next time.
She’s a real little Aussie battleaxe. Was she not kicked out of the Liberal Party for her behaviour?
It needs more of the old timers to call out this rude behaviour.
Evan….Pache makes a pretence of being even handed, but for a long time he has put a glow on the Liberal side and not much gloss on the Labor one….His whole comment about Albanese addressing the NPC was intended as a put down while his man, being smarter so say, was doing his good works around Sydney.
Pache was quite categorical – when questioned – about whether Morrison would be back in Perth – the answer being “No”….Now, I don’t expect Pache and his like to be told everything that Morrison is doing but he had no idea where Morrison was and where he was going to be….
Mind you, he is speaking to like-minded types such as Liam Bartlett who hosts the 9-12 shift on 6PR…Bartlett is another one who vigorously protects his even-handedness which is a joke when he has the likes of Peta Credlin as a guest, quotes daily from the Australian newspaper, is loath to admit the West newspaper exists and has rarely if ever, referred to the Guardian newspaper.
Fortunately, Bartlett’s ratings are low and have been sinking for some time…..
Just Quietly @ #878 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:42 pm
Briefly rubbed out till after close of proceedings was the word IIRC
@Firefox: If your only comeback to me is to refuse to engage any of my points and just go “hurr durr Labor” don’t waste anybody’s time with the comeback.
I get it – you think if people don’t instantly support 100% perfect action on climate they’re evil and wrong and you just need to keep yelling at them until they 100% agree with you.
Which just means if it is left up to people like you, NOTHING WILL EVER HAPPEN but you will be sitting there smug in moral certainty while the world burns around you.
Have a good day.
Briefly changed screen names a couple times. I don’t know what the latest is.
If you install C+ as an extension for Chrome you can block the low value commenters, trolls and other idiots.
Any armchair psephologists want to dissect this one? Criticism of Indis not allocating preferences… hopefully Antony Green right that it does not increase informals, but hard to see how it would not? Worrying… I am hoping to see ScoMo freed up to tackle the U8s or lay on a beach in Oahu…
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/kooyong-voters-confused-by-ryan-voting-cards-could-be-the-difference-between-winning-and-losing-20220513-p5al6m.html
nath says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Reading about the personal feud between Simon Holmes a Court and Frydenberg. I’m pretty certain that if he doesn’t get Josh this time he will be back again with more money next time.
__________________________
If I had an inheritance of those proportions – I’m not sure I would pick as my top spending priority funding vanity campaigns for other people in Federal politics.
The other day I commented that I’d learned (because I had a hunch and checked) that FEE-HELP debts form part of the measure of household debt (2.1% of total Australian household debt in 2021).
This is important I guess when people (read economists) decry the net household debt to income and equity ratios, because if there’s an extent to which that debt is structural and only somewhat discretionary (you can choose whether or not to incur FEE-HELP debt, after all, but for many people it’s a bit of a Hobson’s choice*) then the narrative that people are over-leveraging themselves might be a bit mean-spirited.
Check out the indexation graph in this story, for a look at what’s going to happen this year:
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/how-many-years-does-it-take-a-wa-uni-graduate-to-pay-off-their-hecs-debt-the-figure-is-rising-20220518-p5amf5.html
So what’s likely to happen to the FEE-HELP debt as a proportion of household debt measure I wonder, particularly as the base fees themselves rise?
*Or is that two Hobson’s choices: one, whether to study at all (the alternative being, on balance, lower lifetime income expectations), and two, whether to pay upfront when for many households (in particular the lower income households that free tertiary education and then the Hawke-Keating-Dawkins HECS arrangements were designed to assist) this simply wouldn’t be an option.
David Rowe
Al Pal @ #691 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:28 pm
I think the phrase “Angel of Death” predates Mengele by a couple of thousand years. Should anything which was appropriated by the Nazis 80+ years ago or attributed to them now be forbidden? A’Court may be too young to even know the Nazi connection.
Lars
Nothing wrong with the DUP taking a small step in acknowledging a step in the right direction from the UK government. If someone had have said a year ago there would be legislation along the lines that has been drawn up, most would have said they were crazy. The bottom line still hasn’t changed. There won’t be a functioning government in Northern Ireland unless either that legislation is implemented, or the EU back down and come to an agreement satisfactory to unionism. I suspect we are going to land where this should have landed all along, and that all the EU bluff and bluster will amount to little. That is, no checks on goods moving within the rest of the UK to Northern Ireland, with checks only taking place if said goods are moving to the ROI. All the talk of trade wars should have been called for the bluff it is long ago. An EU initiated trade war with the UK would actually make inevitable the very situation that the EU say they are trying to avoid, a land border between the ROI and NI, policed and enforced by the EU.
Arky @ #884 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:44 pm
Here’s the reality:
COALition: 3 degrees.
Labor: 2 degrees.
Minors and Independents: 1.5 degrees.
Before you make your final choice, remember that we are seeing the effects of 1 degree already. What would even 1.5 degrees look like if 1 degree is this bad? Let alone 2 degrees or 3 degrees.
Now, make your choice.
”
rosscosays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:11 pm
Can someone explain to me why/how pollsters give one primary vote figure for the LNP coalition. Except for Queensland, the Liberals and Nats are different parties with different constituents. Where there is no incumbent LNP member they even compete against each other. The only thing the Libs and Nats have in common is a desire to keep Labor out of office.
So how can their primary vote figures be combined into one number? And what does the number really mean. The pollsters must know who are Lib voters and who are Nats so why not publish the figure.
I have a feeling, without any evidence, that the Nats primary vote has probably remained fairly stable, so any fall in the combined number would have to come from the Libs side.
Has anybody done a seat by seat analysis over a period of time to track the movement in actual primary votes for the Libs, Nats and Labor?
”
In every seat where ALP is competing with either Libs or Nats or Teals or Greens or Indies , the non-ALP want to win.
You are right that LNP number in opinion polls adds Libs+Nats+LNP PV and unlike last time Nats vote is steady.
But for ALP to win an election, its PV should be more than that of Libs+Nats+ LNP vote, what ever it is.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2022/05/18/what-cost?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Politics%20%20Wednesday%2018%20May%202022&utm_content=The%20Politics%20%20Wednesday%2018%20May%202022+CID_35fafffe4d0d7d6141373478b0f136ce&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=Read%20on&cid=35fafffe4d0d7d6141373478b0f136ce
The 2GB shockjocks too claim they’ve been even handed this election, but that’s a laugh, they’re all Liberals, the lot of them, even John Stanley at nights who pretends he’s neutral.
Ben Fordham and Ray Hadley and Jim Wilson are all clearly on Morrison’s side.
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:47 pm
nath says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Reading about the personal feud between Simon Holmes a Court and Frydenberg. I’m pretty certain that if he doesn’t get Josh this time he will be back again with more money next time.
__________________________
If I had an inheritance of those proportions – I’m not sure I would pick as my top spending priority funding vanity campaigns for other people in Federal politics.
__________
It certainly wouldn’t be a top priority, certainly not up there with my interest in red heads, but perhaps the chance to destroy the ambitions of Josh and Tim was just too delicious a proposition to resist.
BK @ #886 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:47 pm
I still think Cash looks like Deves. And is that Latham behind her?
I’m losing my Rowe interpretation skills!!
@Confessions:
Is there an option for Firefox (the browser, not the commenter here) users?
Arky
I get it – you think if people don’t instantly support 100% perfect action on climate *(and housing and health and and defence and everything else)* they’re evil and wrong and you just need to keep yelling at them until they 100% agree with you.
Which just means if it is left up to people like you, NOTHING WILL EVER HAPPEN
I made an addition. But you’ve described how the Greens do politics perfectly.
Gosh, if she has taken Invermectin she should be aware of the article someone posted a few days ago that around two thirds of users were suffering long term incontinence.