The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
porotisays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 2:45 pm
Sandman at 2:40 pm
I would wait for other reports on that. The Daily Telegraph is down there with the Daily Mail when it comes to ‘quality’ political coverage..
Agree Poroti but it comes with a video taken by Joshyboy … hard to top that.
With Hanson contracting contracting Covid I wonder if she has taken the time to update her great classic ” If you are reading this, it means that I am dead.” video ?
BKsays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 2:26 pm
I have just redone the calculation on Labor’s costing.
It represents a huge 0.3% increase on budgeted expenditure for 2022/3.
“LABOR COST BLOWOUT” will on lots of Murdoch front pages on the strength of this.
Note that Labor did not match the $3.3b saving claimed by the government in its costings.
Hear Hear. Don’t let the reality get in the way of a BS story to tell the punters . How predictable the RWNJs.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among women; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
Is others correct? Should it be 14.0% among men?
Long time lurker, first time poster.
I’d just like to point something out regarding the betting odds.
Firstly, they were badly wrong in 2019, so I am not sure why anyone gives them much notice.
Secondly, the market is driven not by underlying probabilities but by balance depending on how much money is being staked. The LNP were at $4.20 (I think?) just a week ago. Irresistible odds to many particularly given their `miracle in 2019′. I must admit, I don’t really want to go through the process of making a SB account, but if SB was an agency next to my office, at $4.20, I would’ve gone myself to get my own $200 election night insurance policy. I am almost certain that a lot of money has come in for the LNP and that has been a partial factor in the changing odds.
Thirdly, the polls are tightening because just about every polling agency knows that if they print a 2PP of 54-46 days out from an election and they are wrong again, that is the end of their polling days. Showing a tightening is a sell-able narrative post-election that the final week really did show a stunning reversal and Morrison is a bona fide miracle worker.
This election is over and Albanese has already won it because 40% of us have already voted. I am really surprised at the death of qualitative thinking. I did not need a poll in 2019 to tell me that Morrison would beat Shorten – on election day I picked that Morrison would win. In 2019, Shorten was a very negative campaigner and Morrison was actually likable as an optimist and easy-going bloke. In 2022, Morrison is done. There has never been such a viscerally disliked Prime Minister in modern Australian history.
@Poll Bogan:
“Firefox wrote:
Labor are a huge part of the problem. The Greens and I make no apologies for holding Labor accountable and “keeping the bastards honest” – someone has to.
I write:
The reality is the Greens need to take votes from Labor to win seats; hence this dynamic. All it is doing at this exact moment, though, is harming the progressive cause. The Labor VS Greens battles are in a handful of seats. In the rest of country, like most areas familiar to this bogan, it is Labor and Greens versus a torrent of RWNJ horror. We rarely trade cheap shots at each other here. In fact, we even work together here and there. There is a lot worse. Some perspective here would be great. Surely none of us want to wake up Sunday to Scotty from Marketing.”
Precisely. The FF and Adam Bandt version of “keep the bastards honest” looks like “drag Labor down before they can get back into office, keep the actual bastards in power”. Like the right wing media claiming they are just “holding Labor accountable” when they go after Labor while ignoring the Libs.
What possible excuse does Bandt have for making public demands of a hypothetical balance of power Labor government, and for going to places like the Hunter Valley, except to give credence to all the Liberal scare campaigns about “vote Labor get Greens” etc and run down the Labor vote (it’s not like he’s actually going to win a seat like Hunter. By all means campaign in Ryan and Higgins).
If your reading this I am laughing at little Johnny not “having a strong feeling about the election outcome”, Pauline Hanson getting the virus that does not exist, Scomo pumping out his ‘cant manage money, cant manage the economy’ mantra, and Freya finding new ways to interfere with the notion of intelligence.
Saturday night will be a hoot on Sky News too.
So anyone have any thoughts on this?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/19/voting-covid-19-phone-cut-off/
“A total of 193,882 Australians reported testing positive for COVID between Sunday and Wednesday. These people are expected to self-isolate past election day but are ineligible for phone voting. Instead they must rely on their mail ballots arriving in time or miss out on voting. Some have been told by the AEC that their ballot papers won’t be delivered until after the election.”
The predicted $7 billion odd sounds a lot – especially when it is annunciated on the news by some 20 year old on work experience……………Seven Biiilllioinnnnn (!) but when $5 billion was wasted by the LNP on the change of purchase of submarines from the French – pin money……So much of our commercial media has proved itself to be really low grade stuff – again…
John Howard says that he didn’t sense a lot of enthusiasm for Albanese, and compared it with his experience in ’07 when he knew it’d be a big fight with Kevin Rudd.
“All it is doing at this exact moment, though, is harming the progressive cause.”
***
Labor are not on the side of the progressive left, and they’re certainly not on the side of environmentalists or anyone who cares about the climate crisis, either.
Sad to hear about Pauline contracting COVID. Being 68 and unvaccinated definitely won’t help. Please all join me in praying for her recovery.
“drag Labor down”
***
Drag Labor kicking and screaming to the left, more like it.
“Labor are not on the side of the progressive left, ”
And I’m not a true Scotsman?
Firefox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 2:15 pm
“In a minority government, the Greens are going to be a fair way down the consultation list.”
***
Just assume that’s correct for one second, even if the Greens weren’t involved at all and Labor did some deal with the Teals or Katter or whoever, that still completely destroys the desperate scare campaigns Labor is currently running about minority government. Labor’s lies are there for all to see.
Labor and the Lite will not be doing deals. By enacting their policies, Labor will deliver most of the objectives of the Lite, so they have no need to offer anything to Labor. Nor will Labor put themselves in a position where they depend on the enemies. So no dealing will take place.
The Apostate/Greens kid themselves into thinking they can coerce, blackmail, strong-arm or otherwise extort concessions from Labor. They should understand that Labor stand to make political gains by refusing to deal with the Apostate/Greens.
Any concessions at all by Labor to their enemies, the Apostate/Greens, will have benefits for one side only: their Labor-phobic opponents. Deals would only harm Labor and profit their antagonists. Therefore there will be deals. None. At all.
Firefox @ #618 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 2:25 pm
Deflect all you want, but the Greens in Griffith have been campaigning hard on the claim that Labor and Liberals are equally bad. And to be clear, I’m not exaggerating, here – it didn’t say “Labor is almost as bad”, it said they were equally bad.
I’m a Labor/Greens swing voter, who lots here accused of being a secret Greens member. I will speak of the value of both parties, and I will criticise both parties.
Labor exaggerated when they claimed voting for Greens would lead to Morrison winning. Greens exaggerated when they claimed Labor and Liberals are equally bad. Both sides have done it.
You know what’s leading me to lean towards Labor at this election (in the House)? I’ve received multiple anti-Labor (of the form “they’re as bad as the Liberals”) leaflets in my mailbox from the Greens. The only negative leaflet I’ve received from Labor has been an anti-Morrison one. Labor’s leaflets have otherwise been positive campaign messages.
When two parties are equal in their flaws and their value, you have to decide based on secondary considerations. Labor has won, in that regard, for this election.
Here’s my cheat seat for Saturday nights election
COALITION (75) 2PP RESULT
Reid 3.2
Robertson 4.2
Lindsay 5.0
Banks 6.3
Page 9.4
Bennelong 6.9
Chisolm 0.5
Higgins 2.6
Casey 4.6
Deakin 4.7
Latrobe 5.5
Longman 3.3
Leichardt 4.2
Brisbane 4.9
Ryan 6.0
Flynn 8.7
Bass 0.5
Braddon 3.1
Boothby 1.4
Sturt 6.9
NT
Swan 3.2
Pearce 5.2
Hasluck 5.9
OTHERS (6)
North Sydney 9.3
Wentworth 1.3
Mackellar
Hughes 9.8
Warringah 7.2
Flinders 5.6
Kooyong 6.4
Monash 6.9
Goldstein 7.8
Nicholls 20.0
Indi 1.4
LABOR SEATS TO WATCH
Macquarie 0.2
Eden-Monaro 0.8
Dobell 1.5
Gilmore 2.6
Greenway 2.8
Hunter 3.0
Paramatta 3.5
Shortland 4.4
Paterson 5.0
Corangamite 1.0
Dunkley 2.7
Lilley 0.6
Griffith 2.9
Lyons 5.2
Lingiari 3.1
Cowan 0.9
Make of that what you will. My outliers are Page and Nicholls.
Firefox @ #631 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 2:36 pm
The last time a party started going into elections with the attitude of “keeping the bastards honest”, they were soon annihilated as a party. I really hope the Greens aren’t taking that view…
‘“Labor are not on the side of the progressive left, ”
And I’m not a true Scotsman?’
***
https://www.politicalcompass.org/aus2022
For a second opinion, take the ABC’s Vote Compass and see where you stand: https://votecompass.abc.net.au/
The progressive/conservative axis is upside down compared to that of The Political Compass but they tell pretty much the same story. This was my result when I did it a few weeks ago…
Sandman: Borrowed (hope you dont mind)
Sure will Freya. I’ll get the Flying Spaghetti Monster right on it.
Golema Pichka @ #575 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:51 pm
Thank you for your contribution. It’s good to get a read from a couple of demographics that Scott Morrison thinks he can count on.
Someone should keep The Greens bastards honest.
BeaglieBoysays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:09 pm
Sandman: Borrowed (hope you dont mind)
NP Beagle.
Freya Stark @ #658 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:01 pm
Not happening. Prayers are for those who believe in ineffectual solutions. I believe in Medical Science.
Firefox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:09 pm
‘“Labor are not on the side of the progressive left, ”
The Greens are not progressive. They are a decoy outfit that run Labor-phobic polemics as counter-point to the campaigns of the Lying Reactionaries. They aim to disable Labor. They use every defamation, distortion, dissembling disinformation and denigration they can think of in order to defile and defeat Labor.
“Deflect all you want, but the Greens in Griffith have been campaigning hard on the claim that Labor and Liberals are equally bad. And to be clear, I’m not exaggerating, here – it didn’t say “Labor is almost as bad”, it said they were equally bad.”
***
I believe the statement you are referring to was from the post below, and it is not what you claim it is.
“…there is increasingly very little difference between Labor and the Liberal Party, but we don’t want another 3 years of the Morrison government so we are preferencing Labor second.”
That statement is accurate and also makes it clear that the Greens want to kick Morrison out and are putting Labor second.
This continued desperation from Labor is doing them no favours whatsoever, nor is it the behaviour of an undecided or impartial voter…
Notwithstanding my analysis of the Apostate/Greens, I voted the WA Labor ticket in both houses, which meant putting the Greens at 2 on the Senate ballot. They do not deserve it, but they profit from it anyway.
What is the difference between Xi and Bandt?
One has fourteen demands. The other only has seven demands.
Good to see Vic Gov accepting all 20 recommendation in principle from the Ashton review into ESTA (Triple Zero call system). The review doesn’t make for good reading.
Also good to see SA Gov moving to abolish their EV tax. Embarrassed that Vic Labor Gov have imposed such a tax on Victorians.
Late Riser:
First weird screw up in Anthony Greens new fangled on-air graphics system…6:56pm
PB GUESSING GAME, May-19 13:01
TPP (FINAL)
ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP Median
ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP Mode
ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP Mean
ALP 55.4 to 49.0 LNP Max
ALP 51.0 to 44.6 LNP Min
ALP / LNP 51 Respondents
full list here:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/18/essential-research-2pp-labor-48-liberal-46-undecided-7/comment-page-20/#comment-3912635
LR – put me down for:
91 | 52 | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | 2
AG will call it at 8:30pm – we won’t even need to go west.
ScoMo will appear at 11:45pm
Albo will be on after midnight!
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:13 pm
“Someone should keep The Greens bastards honest.”
You could always preference the Australian Democrats in the Senate (all mainland states apparently)
On the Labor costings the emphasis should be selling this as an investment and an economic boost (eg child care –> greater female participation –> bigger economy and greater wealth. Don’t expect to see this in the Daily Mordor press tho’.
Monika @2:53
Your post is lucid, and you make sagacious points.
No doubt many Bludgers would appreciate hearing any more insights that you’d like to share with us.
PaulTu @ #680 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:23 pm
Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher tried.
Bludging says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:18 pm
Notwithstanding my analysis of the Apostate/Greens, I voted the WA Labor ticket in both houses, which meant putting the Greens at 2 on the Senate ballot. They do not deserve it, but they profit from it anyway.
________
lmao.
“Notwithstanding my analysis of the Apostate/Greens, I voted the WA Labor ticket in both houses, which meant putting the Greens at 2 on the Senate ballot. They do not deserve it, but they profit from it anyway.”
***
On behalf of the WA Greens, we most humbly thank The Artist for his preference and support in the fight against the Reactionaries, their surrogates… etc… 😀
Frydenberg looks like a beaten favourite at this presser.
Fyi. A Current Affair have a story tonight on the ghost who is the Liberal candidate in Jason Clare’s seat. She’s a Muslim lady but isn’t at the Pre Poll, even though her husband is. Weird. Is it because the Liberals thought a Muslim man might drive Liberal voters away as they had thoughts of terrorists?
I was taken to task yesterday by the esteemed William for referring to a Simon Holmes ACourt tweet pointing out that John Howard was “ the angel of death”.
William pointed out the quote was originally made by an unknown Liberal, according to the Saturday Paper.
I hadn’t realised that the angel of death was the name given to Nazi doctor Josef Mengele , who performed unimaginable deadly medical experiments on children in death camps.
Irrespective of the source Holmes ACourt still posted it.
Howard responded yesterday saying the comment was beneath contempt.
Whatever it’s source, the Teal leader should never have repeated it, irrespective of its origin.
It goes to the simple issue of character. It’s a test he has failed, without argument. It goes to his moral compass. Shameful.
Re King O’Malley at 2.41 pm
Check pre-poll booth figures compared to 12 Feb day booth figures for by-elections in Bega (southern part of Gilmore) and Monaro (part of Eden-Monaro) available from William’s site.
You will see the pattern was still for pre-poll booths to be a few percent more favourable to LNP than polling day booths, with record pre-poll numbers. So don’t assume this difference will not recur on Sat night.
Boerwar at 3:20 pm
So does that make Bandt twice as good as Xi or half as bad ?
Bloody Climate Scientists! Sticking their oar in again …
https://theconversation.com/a-new-climate-politics-the-47th-parliament-must-be-a-contest-of-ideas-for-a-hotter-low-carbon-australia-182770
The article concludes …
Giving your first preferences to pro-action independents and minor parties is the best way to ensure the next government takes action.
hazza4257 @ #611 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 2:19 pm
Isn’t he a Green? nath sock-puppet? 😀
Firefox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:26 pm
“Notwithstanding my analysis of the Apostate/Greens, I voted the WA Labor ticket in both houses, which meant putting the Greens at 2 on the Senate ballot. They do not deserve it, but they profit from it anyway.”
***
On behalf of the WA Greens, we most humbly thank The Artist for his preference and support in the fight against the Reactionaries, their surrogates… etc…
No good deed will go unpunished. There’s no doubt in my mind: the Apostates from WA will use their sinecures in the Senate to attempt to defeat Labor. Indeed, this is implicit in everything they have promised to do.
“Howard responded yesterday saying the comment was beneath contempt.
Whatever it’s source, the Teal leader should never have repeated it, irrespective of its origin.
It goes to the simple issue of character. It’s a test he has failed, without argument. It goes to his moral compass. Shameful.”
***
Howard is responsible for the deaths of up to two and a half million innocent civilians that resulted from the invasion of Iraq. It is he who has unquestionably failed the character test.
Like a good Liberal she is at home in the kitchen, and well away from the licentious gaze of non adherents.
Player One says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:29 pm
The first task of the government in Australia’s 47th parliament must be to increase the national emissions target for 2030.
True. But rest assured, the Senate, a hot-house for Reactionary plotting, will prevent Labor – should they win – from accomplishing much in this area.
The best hope is that Labor and the Lite give the Reactionaries the hiding of the century. This might caution them to not oppose Labor. But I wouldn’t count on that.
@ FreyaStark
“Please all join me in praying for her recovery.”
Sorry, can’t help, I’m an atheist.