The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
Reposted from the previous thread
mj @ #977 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:09 pm
It’s not so much the political make up, it’s more the voter demographics that have proven to be reluctant to vote for the uncertainty that a change agenda represents.
“Malcolm” is a great movie, mainly* because of all the trams.
* not only
Hi William. Is that “52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson”?
I think this is a Typo William 🙂
Some of my favourite Aussie movies
Two Hands
Shine
The Odd Angry Shot
Fav Aussie movies…
Malcolm
Proof
Death in Brunswick
The Big Steal
Mad Max
Two Hands
Spotswood
Romper Stomper
The Dish
Muriels Wedding
The Boys
Too many to list, the low budget 80s/90s stuff is pretty good and well worth the time
And the classic, Bad Boy Bubby, you’ll never look at clingwrap the same way again.
“Bad Boy Bubby” mmmm crunchy cockroach 😳
Would that be Dr Fumbles McStupid ” The Lion Tamer ” or Dr Fumbles McStupid ” Our son ” ??…
The FJ Holden
Takes me back to my own youth growing up in the outer burbs in the early eighties when life was all about old cars with loud exhausts driven intoxicated at frightening speeds, girls, booze, weed, fights and avoiding the cops.
Now don’t go signing my name on anything
Italian Spiderman for me.
Voodoo Blues, With triple overhead foxtails?
I have to confess, for the last about a year or so, whenever hillsong scotty spoke on television
all I here is the annoying sound of the Martians from “Tin Burton’s” film Mars Attack!
Arrgh Arrgh 😯
Voodoo Blues says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:53 am
The FJ Holden
Takes me back to my own youth growing up in the outer burbs in the early eighties when life was all about old cars with loud exhausts driven intoxicated at frightening speeds, girls, booze, weed, fights and avoiding the cops.
_________________________
We were all clean living and goody goodies, well I was, being the oldest and having a car so had to be taxi driver, 1965 Ford Cortina 2 door, white it was with a 1.3 donk
@ martini henry
I actually had a Datsun 1600 which I bought from the wreckers, then fully worked it bored out the cylinders racing exhaust the lot, then wrapped it around a tree one Saturday night.
Scomo a Go Go
The look on the alien leaders face as the dove flys off kills me.
Only good bit in the entire movie though
ShaneB all I meant was that whenever hillsong scotty spoke, all I heard was a monotonous annoying drone 😆
DR Fumbles McStupid.
Some other memories of a misspent youth include every one having really long hair and my old man hated long hair on boys so that was a constant battle and mine was always a bit shorter than everybody else.
Amusement arcades,TAB’s that were just a blue haze of tobacco smoke, pornographic magazines that had somehow found their way from Holland to provincial QLD, and house parties that always ended up looking like a mixed martial arts free for all with the cops arriving at about 10.30 and dragging a few off to the watchouse.
Stone was another minor b grade Australian classic A mid seventies Australian flirtation with the outlaw biker genre.Bed time.
The soundtrack to ‘Malcolm’ by Simon Jeffes & Penguin Cafe Orchestra, wonderfully innovative at the time, remains memorable, along with the trams..
https://www.smh.com.au/national/dislike-of-morrison-remains-the-dominant-factor-in-this-campaign-20220517-p5am7a.html
ScoMopology is perfect.
The high % of undecided in this seat poll gives some uncertainty to the race. We’ll have to see.
Charlie’s Country and Lantana are my favourite Australian movies of the last few decades.
Lantana is the best Australian movie I’ve seen. Also loved Animal Kingdom.
Loved The Sapphires but spent the first few minutes yelling at the screen because no-one was cropping canola back then AFAIK.
Watched Ten Canoes for the first time on a QF heading home from London. Fantastic movie.
Mad Max 2 – created the look and expectations of the post-apocalyptic movie genre.
And that bit at the end (you know, with Max & Feral Child & Wes on the truck?), first time I saw it in a packed cinema, damn near everybody SCREAMED!!
FJ Holden with theme song sung by the actual FJ Holden ( I think) was a bewdy. It was advertised as a raunchy teen movie but ended up being a slice of real life, even a scene where the guys father criticises some people piling their plates too high at the local RSLs smorgasbord. It ends with the young guy getting no where with his life.
For what its worth, Kieran Gilbert is reporting that senior Labor sources say that there is no evidence of a shift against the ALP in key seats (Im guessing this must be in their daily seat track polling).
George Miller grew up on the Warrego Highway. Warrigal’s theory is that Mad Max is a Warrego Highway nightmare with a long-term resident/med student’s experiences of road trauma as accelerant – we lived even further out west on the A2 when the oil crisis of 1973 was in the news. I think I’ve aired this loose bit of pop psychology before.
I think The Guardian editorial captures the zeitgeist about right… ScoMo does not deserve to be re-elected, though many doubts prevail with Albo and ALP
The more seats the ALP win off the preference of non-primary voters, especially if this leads to a comfortable majority, i fear may lead to overreach when it comes to perceived mandate. Having said that, their platform is hardly radical. The controls that may come with having to navigate both the Greens and Lambie/Xenophon in the senate will be interesting, im not sure whether an additional filter in the form of teals in the Lower House would add that much more to the challenge. Accordingly, as long as the largest party forming govt whether in a majority or minority is not the crucial issue to me and i suspect many others… relative to removing Morrison and co
I wish Teals all success… to the extent they represent moderate liberals outside (or perhaps ultimately again) inside the party, its a good thing
Cant wait for Sat night to come, this has been tortuous and at times vacuous
2 days out and Morrison doubles down on the boofhead footy vote, and gives up wooing the female vote by knocking over an 8 year old.
Is this the optics the battling Liberals want on the 2nd last day?
Confessions: thanks for that link , who would have thought that Nikki Savva would be the must read of this campaign. Her story really resonates with the liberals major problem , Scomoe. He was touted all along as the next big thing, he came equipped with his own nickname and self constructed daggy dad persona. Behind it all was a ruthless hardhead who doesn’t seem to be telling the full story about himself ( maybe Deves is telling a bit of it on his behalf). The Libs with the vociferous and stout backing of the media could have changed captains and presented a new veneer over the tired old team of underwhelming performers but decided to persist with the cult of Scomoe. His childish behaviour on the soccer field is emblematic of his campaign to me. He has no substance and just doesn’t work hard at providing good governance. The biased media will sell you the sizzle but the sausage is pretty ordinary. But what do I know, he might well win again and give conservative gee up merchant Freya a big buzz and bragging rights but the signs don’t look good for him right now at least to me.
Those headlines are not for the SfM tackle but they still work!
Picnic at hanging rock
Prince planet:
Savva represents the opinions of many moderate Liberals when it comes to Scott Morrison and today’s Liberal Party. She also always has the best insider Liberal goss, so is a must read/watch on the party’s machinations.
Headlining & front pages…grr
Another SFM stunt!
Drowned out Albo’s NPC address.
The biased media will sell you the sizzle but the sausage is pretty ordinary.
D @ #36 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:59 am
As it was always intended.
Who’s ready for a night of disappointment?
Not sure the smirko headlines will help him with women – then again if they have lost the female vote they are toast.
2 days to go, feeling good about labors chances.
I am so tired of seeing obnoxiousness and entertainment equated with leadership, but it sells clicks and printed poo tickets.
Dy/Dx @ #29 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:41 am
After yesterday’s effort where Morrison thought he was back on the Rugby field, there may well be a swing TO Labor in the dying days of the campaign!
Nikki Savva is constructing a ‘Blame Scomo” meme to let her beloved Liberal Party off the hook and set herself and her allies up to take back influence in the party after the defeat.
Don’t be fooled. The real story is the Liberals and Nationals have become unredeemably dysfunctional.
William mentions he had an about tatical voting.
I think there will be a lot of tactical voting for Habermann by normaly Labor voting people in the seat of Grey. Greens, Labor and One Nation are all suggesting voting for Habermann ahead of Liberals which should also help,
Maybe you Itep
ltep @ #39 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:01 am
mundo 😐
Maybe you two could get a room together? Maybe Lars von Liberal, Freya Stark and nath could join you in the Gloat Room?
Warrigal says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:23 am
Loved The Sapphires but spent the first few minutes yelling at the screen because no-one was cropping canola back then AFAIK.
Sound like my wife who goes on and on about the RAM advertisement (mortgage broker I think) because the RAM is a wether. Can’t trust a company that can’t get it’s sheep sorted.
ajm @ #43 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:07 am
Maybe all the above?
The 48-hour seat blitz will see Mr Albanese visit five states starting in Sydney and Brisbane today before pushing into a further three states, likely Tasmania, South Australia and Victoria on election eve.
Joining him and making their own campaign stops will be front benchers Richard Marles, Penny Wong, Jim Chalmers, Tanya Plibersek and Jason Clare.
“We are in the final sprint,” campaign spokesman Mr Clare said.
Mr Albanese visited the Marconi Club on Wednesday evening where he appeared alongside shadow home affairs minister Kristina Keneally and spoke about his heritage at an Italian community event.
“People made fun of your name,” he said of growing up in a different era of multicultural Australia.
The Labor leader then joked the Liberals still thought such jokes were okay, in reference to the attack ad slogan: “It won’t be easy under Albanese”.
Ms Keneally, a former state premier and Senator who was recently installed as the candidate for Fowler in western Sydney, is facing a tough challenge from independent former Liberal Dai Le, according to reportedly leaked polling, that a Labor source disputed.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/18/labor-secret-weapon-election-issue/