The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
[ltep says: Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:01 am
Who’s ready for a night of disappointment?]
For the lnp maybe..
According to Simon Birmingham, Albanese has made another gaffe, this time stating that Australia’s borders are still closed.
Edit: Sorry Firefox if I stole your customary position as first post on the page.
What do you mean ltep? Ipsos?
A pivotal moment in the campaign- and the result – come# with the release of the Unemployment figures at 11.30.
If it has a three in front of it, Morrison’s final two days will be easy for him – who do you trust to run the economy. If it continues at four or above, it will provide Jim Chalmers with great opportunity with cut through messages.
It will be a moment of consequence.
ltep says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:01 am
Who’s ready for a night of disappointment?
Going to be an interesting night for sure. Can Murdoch still swing an election?
No no lynchpin, was just a tongue in cheek comment, absolutely no intelligence (in all senses of the word) from me.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #6 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:40 am
Tsk. Tsk, Dr Fumbles! You left out one of THE best Oz movies ever:
The Cars That Ate Paris
😀
Who’s ready for a night of disappointment?
———-
An active and fulfilling sex life is one of the secrets to a long life, get kinky.
I don’t think anyone listens to Boringham ltep
Filthy Eunice, shame on you 😉
Al Pal @ #53 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:12 am
If the figure is that it will have had nothing to do with Morrison and everything to do with the pandemic putting the brakes on worker importation.
Al Pal
Apparently the last one was 3.96%, but ABS round to one decimal point so it was reported as 4.0%. Likely to be 3.8 or 3.9 this time.
But I think it has been so predicted that it won’t shift the dial.
Ok ltep. Why stir the pot, though?
Poor Itep, l’ve noted for sometime now he has the Mundo disease. It will swallow him whole, you know, wish giving father to thought.
ltep @ #39 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:01 am
The graveyard shift comes to PB much earlier these days than it ever did in the past. In that sense, every night is a night of disappointment and a night better spent on other pursuits.
“The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among women; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.”
Given the sample size and the academic (rather than commercial) source of the poll, this is worth taking especially seriously. So, a large sample size delivers a bigger primary vote for the ALP among both men and women. That’s very bad news for the Coalition, that was probably hoping to make up ground lost to women, by getting greater support from men… Perhaps the association of Neoliberalism-Conservatism with Masculinity is fading away? In addition, the fact that there are more women undecided than men is good news for the ALP.
So far, so good.
Its not like albo crash tackled a child or was too gutless to speak at the national press club.
Nbn costs to rise 20% – yet another lnp failure.
Rocket
Agreed. But sometimes these monthly figures jump around a little.
I think that a Labor majority government is at about 90% likely, a Labor minority government at about 9% likely and a Coalition minority government at 1%
So I think it highly unlikely those of us who want the end of this government will be disappointed.
Still I think there is a real possibility we don’t get a final result Saturday night.
On movies.
The Castle
“I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences”…
Yes, I agree. This time around I would expect a high degree of tactical voting in “allegedly safe” Liberal party (and a couple of Nationals) held seats. So, I would expect the ALP national primary vote to be artificially distorted downwards…. and yet, I also expect a very positive result for the ALP in terms of seats won, and very bad results for the Coalition in terms of seats lost.
The most openly corrupt incompetent government in Australias history is competitive…& that angers me.
At some point corruption has become the new norm.
What the feck!
Alpo,
Gay men vote too and they do have representation among the Liberals but I think a majority would support Labor.
Albanese should trump Morrison today or tomorrow and get down on bended knee and propose to Jodie. That would be the feelgood front page to end them all and to end the election with. 🙂
@Eunice – Shame on you! I was a spinster until I was briefly married at 54. I travelled the world and the seven seas. Never did me no harm and I’m still kicking.
On a more serious note: I can live with any election result. I am lucky that my career and family wealth mean I am shielded from the cost of living crisis. But I seethe with anger over the state of democracy in this country. The narrative is entirely controlled by Murdoch and there is no prospect of changing it. This is the most incompetent government in living memory and yet the dark forces mean that they cannot ever be removed. We will continue to be a more inward, smaller, more parochial, narrower and bigoted nation.
As a gay man who knows many other gay men most tend to be left wing/would never vote lnp.
There are some that would – i question why, but the majority dont support the lnp.
Ill benefit from lnp policies but i want them to lose, the corruption needs to stop.
Good summary from Kevin Bonham on the latest polling.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1526917332424986624?s=21&t=6XyLn65IcbqvP3_X41Q7Cg
D @ #36 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:59 am
The Murdoch media don’t want to talk about what Albo has to offer.They much prefer to lilt the uninvolved voters into believing the chant. Who is Albo ? Why he is a nice bloke but totally inexperienced and you mustn’t elect such an inexperienced person to be PM.
Blah Blah Blah!
I think a healthy thing in nz and Australia is that gay folks feel okay to support either major party.
For ex I don’t like NZ Labour because of their tight immigration policy…
C@tmomma @ #46 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:07 am
If Labor loses I’ll be depressed to the point of despair this time.
Don’t know about you C@t, but I take this pretty seriously.
On the Morrison Rugby tackle, I thought we were told by our betters that when it comes to sport, men play men, women play women, boys play boys, and girls play girls……I must have missed the part which said that said 110kg uncoordinated oxen could also play boys
Grime @ #75 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:32 am
Scotty’s from Marketing dontcha know.
You think he didn’t do it deliberately?
There are 2 scotts
@FreyaStark
I really do feel this is changing. With new media and great blogs like this people no longer need Murdoch in their lives. 90% of people get their news from Facebook or online sources and no one will pay for an article , so Murdoch’s views are becoming less and less relevant and tougher to access. Considering the barrage against Albo, the polls effectively haven’t changed. Murdoch media has become more biased and conniving because it is losing control of the people. Even conservatives are looking elsewhere. The Murdoch empire is crumbling, and it is great to watch!!
Thanks Rossmore. That certainly provides perspective.
mundo @ #79 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:34 am
As seriously as getting up in the dark on Saturday morning and going down to the polling booth as booth captain to set up, then staying there all day, from 8am until 6pm, with only a 2 hour break in-between, then staying behind afterwards to pack up and scrutineer? That seriously?
I imagine not.
Jesus Christ- people are getting delusional…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
Watch this and pick the PB….Most unedifying
SM thoughts were for a photo-op and the safety of the vulnerable around him was not considered.
To different from the other Scott
I will have
………….
Ben Fordham on 2GB this morning , accusing Simon Holmes a Court of bullying Liberal Senator Jane Hume, and then a cosy chat with Katherine Deves, followed by accusing Albanese of being unqualified to be PM – Ben is a Liberal stooge, like everyone else on that station
C@tmomma @ #83 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:38 am
Yep. Good on you. Been there done that.
This Saturday however I’m staying in off my bad hip and dicky knees and going to watch it all unfold here on PB.
Hope the weather’s fine.
Shrinkflation bites: popular food brands quietly downsize while charging same price or more
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/19/shrinkflation-bites-popular-food-brands-quietly-downsize-while-charging-same-price-or-more
@Scott
Every person named Scott regardless of age I know is a conservative white jock who votes Liberal and is a fan of the PM (and of Abbott even more so). So you real name is likely to be something different.
@Rossmore
Kevin Bonham’s analysis is completely objective and based on data and mathematics. However two days before an election intangibles and gut feeling are much more important – the latter is what I have loads more of through the wisdom of life experience.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:27 am
Albanese should trump Morrison today or tomorrow and get down on bended knee and propose to Jodie. That would be the feelgood front page to end them all and to end the election with.
—
At the pace he is going he may not be able to get back up Cat.
Hold the faith kindred spirit, we’ve got this one for the “undeserving”. Screw the bloody Tories.
Mundo, you really are the ultimate concern troll.
I remember in the early counting on election night in 2019
The Lib/nats had 9 seats to Labor 0 and the Lib/nats combined primary vote was over 42%
If that is not repeated early this Saturday night
Its a Labor government coming in
mundo @ #91 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:42 am
I’m doing it WITH a bad hip and knees. Me, my son and my strong painkillers. Because I’m pouring every ounce of effort into winning this swing seat for Labor.
I think I’ll stick with the popcorn.
Australian election night feast: golden chive palmiers, raw prawn curry and a green rice bundt – recipe
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2022/may/19/australian-election-night-feast-golden-chive-palmiers-raw-prawn-curry-and-a-green-rice-bundt-recipe
Just passed a big billboard ad “Labor wants to own 40% of your house”.