Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Evidence that late deciders are breaking to the Coalition, but Labor maintains a solid lead in the final Ipsos poll.

The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.

Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.

UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Regarding the “shy UAP voters”, they’re probably “Liberals” or One Nation voters who think that their normally preferred party doesn’t give due consideration to the One World Government plot, the Lizard People or the danger posed by the microchips secretly inserted during vaccinations…

  2. SA Bludger – 748pm

    You make a good point – planes at 35,000 feet are pressurised to (I think) the equivalent of 10,000 feet. While the air you are breathing is still 21% Oxygen, the lower pressure makes the Oxygen content the equivalent of what you’d get with about 18% at sea level. Such that this can cause major problems for people with chronic lung conditions, who may need around 2 litres per minute oxygen to ‘bring them back’ to the equivalent Oxygen content when they fly.

    So post Covid going on all those flights could delay your recovery for sure I would imagine.

  3. This is what LNP have to look forward to for the next 6 years..

    Using just a marker pen and a white board, Labor’s shadow minister for infrastructure and transport, Anthony Albanese, breaks down what he calls the ‘so-called infrastructure plan’ contained in the Coalition’s 2014 budget.


  4. Tricot says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:49 pm

    Freya…you just might be right this time…..Still, it ain’t over till the fat man/lady starts singing and many of us here will wait for AG to call it before getting stuck in. Who knows, perhaps Morrison will claim, if he loses, the the polls are rigged and the LNP has been cheated out of the election….?

    I am waiting for all the rigged votes and stolen election conspiracy theories coming out after the 22nd and even another ‘cooker convoy’, though the price of fuel may kill that one. We import enough crap from the US, and the Aussie Trump going down would be redux of the embarrassment there. I men FFS, my neighbours in Hicksville went off to cooker camp and I had the guy down the road with the ‘Impeach Dan Andrews’ sign….anyhow Gardening Aus is up next for a bit of sanity, unless they do a tour of the garden at Kirribilli house

  5. It’s Friday night before an election but I’m feeling as easy as Sunday morning. As Alban -easy as sunday morning.

  6. Upnorth:

    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:48 pm


    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:26 pm

    [‘Good to hear old mate. Me thinks there will be some surprises tomorrow night!’]

    There could be but they’ll not be found in the NT, unless crime is an issue, which it should be though it’s not really a federal issue.

  7. Looking good!

    I’m nervous as hell but also increasingly confident we’ll end up with some sort of majority tomorrow.

  8. I visited Campbells in the mid-90s? I picked up a couple of crocks (port and muscat) for my Dad.
    Unlike the usual two-tone cylindrical stoneware bottle, these were slightly curvaceous with some interesting “wattle” patterns. e.g.:

    The port crock had a green and brown colour palette.

    Do they still make crocks these days?

  9. Wow!

    Albanese absolutely killed it on the ABC.

    Compare that to Morrisons blundering, question avoiding, stump speeching effort the other night.

    What a great PM Albanese is going to make!

    My take is that leigh Sales was quietly impressed.

    Go Albo!

    Labor 91 seats.

    Only call I’m making.

    Note that please Late Riser

  10. From a rational, data focused point of view, one part of me expects the ALP PV to be a bit higher than the polls 1-2% so around 38-39 due to the high profile of the Inds, the difficulty sampling as they are not everywhere and perhaps a bit of under sampling of the ALP as a caution/reaction to the 2019 poll failure, guess over egging the error correction but not by much.

    The other part will be waiting an hoping for the best as everything is pointing in the right direction and this campaign is nothing like 2019 but we will only know when AG has the first swing number in, then we know.

  11. 29% to 3rd voices and 36% to Labor. 65% comprise the Not-A-Lib plurality. The LNP will lose seats everywhere…to the Mutineers, to Labor. I would venture to think that in their contests with Labor – in the 130-odd seats in which the 2CP contest is with Labor – the Reactionaries will obtain an overall 36-37/90. 40-42%.

    The immense 3rd voice vote will conceal the dimensions of the underlying swing against the Reactionaries.

    This would represent a swing of 10-12% away from the LRP vis-a-vis Labor. The total swing away from them will be greater than this – registering even more strongly in seats won by then Lite – and will sweep them from blue ribbon seats in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and in the regions too.


  12. ltep @ #1668 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 7:14 pm

    From humble beginnings big things grow William.

    Sad I wasn’t around quite at this time:

    January 12, 2004


    Welcome to the first ever posting from The Poll Bludger. I am a Melbourne-based amateur psephologist hoping to use the magic of the internet to impart the accumulated wisdom of a life spent obsessing over the Australian electoral process. As anyone who is truly in touch with the aspirations of mainstream Australia can tell you, millions of people out there are crying out for a one-stop point of access for the very latest information on preselection contests, preference deals, electoral redistributions and all the other things that make Australian democracy such a uniquely pulse-quickening affair. The Poll Bludger offers all this and more.

    Bless! 🙂

  13. Saw on ABC news the presentation they are putting up tomorrow night.

    A big screen with one side Blue for LNP seats, one side Red for Labor seats and a teal/grey colour for Independents.

    If a seat changes hands it changes to the colour of the party/independent that has taken it.

    I will have a bottle of Opal Nera nearby my usual drinks (yes Upnorth, the Bundy OP is there too) and every time a Blue goes Red or Independant’s a shot of that is going down my hatch!

    Got a feeling I’m going to get very drunk, very early!

    Go Labor and Albo!

  14. Saw on ABC news the presentation they are putting up tomorrow night.

    A big screen with one side Blue for LNP seats, one side Red for Labor seats and a teal/grey colour for Independents.

    If a seat changes hands it changes to the colour of the party/independent that has taken it.

    I will have a bottle of Opal Nera nearby my usual drinks (yes Upnorth, the Bundy OP is there too) and every time a Blue goes Red or Independant’s a shot of that is going down my hatch!

    Got a feeling I’m going to get very drunk, very early!

    Go Labor and Albo!

  15. PaulTu says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:34 pm

    hla says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:24 pm

    ’10’ is actually the way you write 8 in octal.

    BTW, there are 10 types of people in the world.
    Those who understand binary, and those who don’t.

    Err. If was only binary you would only need 0 and 1
    Sorry, I should have put the binary joke in a different post since it caused confusion. However ’10’ really is the way you write 8 in octal.

  16. Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:55 pm
    * An optimist says the glass is half full;
    * A pessimist says the glass is empty;
    * The engineer says that the glass is twice as large as it needs to be.
    That one’s new to me. I love it!

  17. BH says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:54 pm

    Loose unit

    I hope Albo, if he is PM, will reorganise pressers.

    I seem to remember when they sat in a room, orderly, but still asking hard questions on policy, not gotchas.


    Pretty easy really.

    Speaking as a former Press Secretary, the way to do it is inform the reporters that they will recognize one questioner at a time.

    When the PS recognizes each questioner in turn, they would be required to first identify themselves, with their media affiliation.

    There would be limited supplementary questions before moving on to the next inquisitor.

    You would hope that the press pack themselves or the travelling Canberra press gallery reporters would cooperate to avoid turning pressers into the free-for-alls that occcurred during this campaign.

  18. Discussed housing loans at 3% with PUP handing out HTVs. I asked if banks were paying out 4% on deposits and could lend it to companies or overseas at 5% how much would go into housing at 3%?
    I suggested Clive knows most of his new followers know nothing about Corporate finance, they are uninformed in areas like that. I asked if ALP are supporting him to get a pay rise, shouldn’t he vote for them. Left him concerned and confused.

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