Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Evidence that late deciders are breaking to the Coalition, but Labor maintains a solid lead in the final Ipsos poll.

The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.

Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.

UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Leigh Sales.. swansong opening statement.. “very little policy difference between the parties”, well there in a nutshell you have the crux of the problem.. ignorant journalists.

    This following Probyn statement today on News 24 about a boring campaign without policy (risk).. well yes what would they expect after 2019 hammering Labor took from the ignorant journalists.. Probyn included.

  2. ”Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are neck-to-neck as the better PM, Newspoll finds.”

    Of Prime Ministers there can be only one. It doesn’t matter who is “preferred” or by how much.

  3. The money number – what every polling site tomorrow will be reminding people about, 54% of Australians want to see the bum rush for Scott Morrison

    Morrison net approval-13 (41-54)

  4. Leigh Sales has some sort of personal vendetta against “mediscare.” Over the years she’s been unable to stfu about it

  5. “Has there been a more exhilarating election for us political junkies ever?”

    Depends on what makes an election exhilarating for you.

    To me this one has been pretty uneventful for 6 weeks, with Albanese’s moment on wages maybe making a critical winning difference and wrenching the story of the election out of the boxes chosen by Murdoch and Morrison for a critical period. But the notion of removing the Coalition after 9 long years IS exhilarating.

    For my lifetime, Australia 1993 (because of the shock win) or US 1992, 2000 or 2008 (genuinely up and down eventful campaigns with shit flying everywhere without the sheer malignancy of 2016) were probably the most exhilarating I have followed. Oh, and Victoria when Kennett lost to Bracks.

  6. BTRProducer says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:41 pm
    I am also doing a top rate steak dinner for tomorrow night. Medium rare, so it’s ALP red inside.
    That’s a bit of a lame measure – why not get “ALBO 4EVER” tattooed on your backside? Could be quite the talking point?

  7. Considering we were bracing for something like 52-48 or even 51-49, this is an extreme relief. Heck, on its own it’s a pretty good poll (I’d take a 53-47 election eve Newspoll any day of the week.)

    Oh well, the poll that counts is tomorrow and we’ll find out then.

  8. Albo sounds tired and who could blame him. I think overall he’s run a good campaign despite media commentary that it’s been terrible. He can enjoy a well deserved rest at 6pm on saturday, but hopefully it’s short lived and Albo is given the great honour of being the country’s next PM.

  9. Freya Starksays:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:39 pm
    2pp 0+36+10+1.5+1+4.5 = 53.0

    Did not expect that. Maybe Coalition won’t win after all.

    Welcome back to the real world Freya.

  10. Sceptic, i have had a feeling that a certain proportion of journalists have been a bit disappointed that their actions have consequences. They had such fun with all of Labor’s policies in 2019 that now they are moping that the only thing they have is Albo’s gaffes. Not even they seem to like gaffe-journalism.

  11. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Wait a minute.

    What about the herding effect, the soft vote, the large number of undecideds, the late breaking stampede of the undecideds to the Coalition, the MOE, the shy Tory effect and the coy Tory effect?

  12. Only 72 seats have independents, so I wonder how many voters are going to head to the polling booths thinking they are going to be voting for one of these new fangle independents only to discover they haven’t got one.

  13. It trust WB will be logged in, from his Costello TV suite, and call the election as soon as he is confident and before the aged infidel Mr Green.

  14. To me, Albanese on 730 looks and sounds remarkably chipper given the hard slog of the past six weeks, with a dose of Covid-19 to boot.

  15. @BTRProducer – I will be doing the same as you. I recently visited Campbells Winery in Rutherglen. They suggested I try their Fortified Wine (apparently you can’t call it port).

    Yep. “Port” is now “Fortified”, but “Tawny Port” is just “Tawny.”
    “Muscat” is still “Muscat” for now; “Tokay” is now “Topaque”.

  16. The first leg of The Trinidad Trifecta has been delivered with a becalming newspoll.

    Now for the Swans to complete leg 2.

  17. BTRProducer says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:46 pm

    If Labor get over 100 seats I will do that next week.
    Good for you! Have a good night tomorrow evening.

  18. ” L-NP 35 ALP 36 Green 12 ON 5 UAP 3 other 9”

    On those numbers I get Labor 2PP ≈ 0 + 36 + 10 + 2 + 1 + 4.5 = 53.5. Assuming a sample size of about 2,000 —> MOE ≈ 2%

  19. Everyone seems to forget Albo had COVID less than a month ago. I’m a healthy 40 year old and it took me more than 6 weeks to “get over it”, and I wasn’t on a plane every day.

  20. Mavis says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:46 pm


    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:26 pm

    Both NT seats are safe in Labor’s hands.
    Good to hear old mate. Me thinks there will be some surprises tomorrow night!

  21. Late Riser, thank you so much for collating our election guesses.

    My seat guess:
    ALP 85, LNP 56, Grn 1, CA 1, KAP 1, Ind 7

    My vote guess:
    TPP ALP: 53.2
    PV: ALP 36.5, LNP 35.0 Grn 11.0 ONP 4.0 Oth 13.5

  22. Freya…you just might be right this time…..Still, it ain’t over till the fat man/lady starts singing and many of us here will wait for AG to call it before getting stuck in. Who knows, perhaps Morrison will claim, if he loses, the the polls are rigged and the LNP has been cheated out of the election….?

  23. Lars Von Trier @ #1760 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 7:44 pm

    BTRProducer says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:41 pm
    I am also doing a top rate steak dinner for tomorrow night. Medium rare, so it’s ALP red inside.
    That’s a bit of a lame measure – why not get “ALBO 4EVER” tattooed on your backside? Could be quite the talking point?

    Well you got 3 more years of Campbellism tatoed on your butt didn’t you 🙂

  24. alias @ #1772 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 7:47 pm

    To me, Albanese looks and sounds remarkably chipper given the hard slog of the past six weeks, with a dose of Covid-19 to boot.

    I think the alp are quitely confident of winning tomorrow – and the media is talking about whether it’s a minority or majority government.

    Broncos had a big win last night
    Lions are 8-1
    Hopefully the lnp have less than 60 seats come sunday.

  25. This afternoon I had a sci-fi film type moment – you know where they find the ‘hive’ where the aliens originate (think Aliens, Starship Troopers, Edge of Tomorrow). I drove past what I think was ‘Save Josh’ Central. There were masses of posters, bunting, corflutes, big signs inside – and absolutely no pictures of Morrison anywhere and no Liberal Party logos that I could see.

    On the big banners/posters I could only see a few words as I was stuck at the lights – ‘Monique Ryan’ and ‘Labor’ – so that looks like tomorrow’s theme, tagging her that maybe because she was briefly a Labor Party member she will back Labor if elected or something like that.

  26. Albo kicking arse here tonight. He has a bit of Keating in him. And a chunk of Hawke. And a bit of Gough.

    Fuck he’s going to be a good PM if tomorrow goes well.

  27. Margin of error is only for accuracy. It does not count for systemic bias. If the methodology doesn’t pick up a Shy Tory effect, a poll of half a million won’t help!

  28. Victoria says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:09 pm
    “No rain in Melbourne town, but cold nights ahead. Brrr……”

    I’d be disappointed if it were otherwise, that’s why we’ve paid the bucks, just so we have an excuse to wear our jackets, scarves and gloves for one week each year. We popped into South Melbourne market today, deeeeelicious!

  29. Already been discussed I’m sure, but the story of the day for me is UAP reportedly doing very well at pre-poll. Katharine Murphy reports rough counting by volunteers suggests up to 20% taking ONLY UAP HTVs in outer suburban seats.

    Labor’s recent primary weakening seems to be going to minors/INDs, which suggests a fair chunk will come back in prefs. The issue is that’s impossible to predict.

  30. The Australian@australian
    #BREAKING: Labor’s lead narrows to 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis as the campaign heads to the finish line.
    #Newspoll #ausvotes

    The Oz must have enjoyed printing that 🙂

    I see others have already reported the final Newspoll. This explains why Albo was in Adelaide trying to get Sturt and Boothby over the line today, whereas Scomo was in Perth trying to save the furniture.

    Even if the Newspoll is out by MOE in the Liberals favour, it is still 50.1/49.9 to Labor, and enough swapped seats to see a Labor minority government.

    Morrison is gone.

  31. hla

    BTW, there are 10 types of people in the world.
    Those who understand binary, and those who don’t.

    An oldie but a goodie!


    * An optimist says the glass is half full;
    * A pessimist says the glass is empty;
    * The engineer says that the glass is twice as large as it needs to be.

    I’ll wait in the car, shall, I.

  32. Has Antony Green ever called an election wrong, giving government away to the wrong side? (Not merely a seat but the PM’s office.)

  33. All the best to the Good Guys for tomorrow 🙂

    And big respect to those doing Polling Station duty

    I’m hoping to catch the early returns live, when I get home from the night shift

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