Accent Research and RedBridge Group have published their third quarterly multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll, which survey a large national sample (in this case of 4909, conducted from October 29 to November 20) and use demographic modelling to project a detailed seat-by-seat election result. It records a continuing deterioration in Labor’s position: where the first result had Labor on a minimum 73 seats with another nine two close to call, and the second had it down to 64 with 14 too close to call, now Labor is down to 59 with too-close-to-call still at 14. With the Coalition credited with a clear lead in 64 seats, this means the poll gives Labor no chance of retaining a majority on the present numbers, with the probability of the Coalition doing so at 2%.
The seats that get the Coalition from their present 55 to 64 are Bennelong, Gilmore, Macarthur, Paterson and Robertson in New South Wales; the by-election loss of Aston in Victoria; the new seat of Bullwinkel in Western Australia, which is notionally marginal Labor; Lyons in Tasmania; and Lingiari in the Northern Territory. Potential further gains are Dobell, Hunter, Macquarie, Reid, Shortland and Werriwa in New South Wales; Chisholm, Corangamite, Hawke and McEwen in Victoria; and the teal seats of Mackellar in New South Wales and Curtin in Western Australia. Conversely, Labor is rated a chance of gaining Casey in Victoria and Sturt in South Australia. A line chart display of the national primary vote looks to me like it has the Coalition on 39%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 11%.
Also:
• JWS Research has results from a survey on attitudes to the US presidential election result, which was rated negatively by 51% and positively by 28%. Here as in the US, a wide gender gap was recorded, men being 35% positive and 40% negative compared with 22% positive and 60% negative for women. The survey was conducted November 8 to 11 from a sample of 1000.
• The JWS Research survey was conducted in tandem with its quarterly True Issues issue salience survey, which found concern about cost-of-living at a new high: 61% named the issue unprompted when asked to identify three the government should be most focused on, up twelve points since August. It also ranks last out of 25 on a measure of the government’s performance, behind interest rates and housing affordability, with its best scores being for defence, innovation, mining and provision of public services. Another finding of the survey was that 49% supported the government’s cut to HECS debts, with 32% opposed. The latter finding was approximated by the last Resolve Strategic poll, which Nine Newspapers this week reported found 54% supportive and 27% opposed.
• Anthony Albanese has asked the Labor national executive to intervene in the preselection process for the Sydney seat of Barton with a view to favouring his Left faction colleague Ashvini Ambihaipahar, a regional director for the St Vincent de Paul Society, Georges River councillor and unsuccessful candidate for Oatley at last year’s state election. The seat will fall vacant with the retirement of Linda Burney, the member since 2016 and likewise a member of the Left. Others seeking the position include Sam Crosby, who also has a director role at the St Vincent de Paul Society, and was formerly executive director of progressive think tank the McKell Institute and unsuccessful candidate for Reid in 2019; Shaoquett Moselmane, a former member of the state upper house; and state upper house member Mark Buttigieg.
• The Guardian reports state party president Leah Blyth is the front-runner for Liberal endorsement to fill the South Australian Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Simon Birmingham. Whereas Birmingham is a leading moderate, Blyth has the backing of arch-conservative Senator Alex Antic. Adelaide councillor Henry Davis is also nominating with a promise to represent the “sensible centre”, but The Advertiser reports he has “acknowledged he would not be favourite”.
Centre @ #744 Sunday, December 8th, 2024 – 9:47 pm
How’s your confident prediction for the election result looking now, Centre? 😐
Oh wait, you saw the Newspoll and you’ve run away.
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 9:46 pm
So Newspoll suggests it is on a knife edge. 5 months is a long time in politics, but it seems that the close to 50/50% is looking baked in.
_______
Pretty much. The full court press on Albanese is resulting in very minor shifts in voting intentions, despite the negative personal stats.
Kirksdarke
Most of the idiots that voted Trump didn’t even know what policies they were voting for
I saw you were around C@t so I thought I’d wait 3 minutes for one of your cheap shots.
I stand by my posts…
You are going to lose 😉
Massive difference between 27% and 33% primary vote. Has there ever been such a discrepancy between Fairfax and newscorp polls?
Most likely an aberration and the real primary around 30, but in general the pollsters seem to be confused and poll weighting is yielding some odd results
In a recent survey, despite two years of often-spectacular growth, 56 percent of voters believed we were in a recession. Half of voters thought the unemployment rate was at a 50-year high when, in fact, it is at a 50-year low. Half of voters thought the stock market was down for the year even though at the time of the survey it was up over 25 percent.
Uneducated swill.
In other words, Americans live in two different worlds complete with different facts.
Kirsdarke @ #746 Sunday, December 8th, 2024 – 9:49 pm
You do know it was all performative, don’t you? Trump WILL deport all the Illegal Immigrants who are also convicted criminals. No one will mind that. He’ll make a big song and dance about it and declare ‘Mission Accomplished’. There will be no 20 Million deportations because too many businesses depend on illegal workers to survive. He may deport the Haitians because they have been vilified in the eyes of the community and people are expecting it. He will cancel Birthright Citizenship. However, that may be a bridge too far for Hispanics because they think it’s okay to draw the bridge up after them but birthright citizenship is how their families get to stay in the US and if it’s taken away they may not like it.
We’ll see.
I’ll add to the Bennelong comment. Since the 2017 By election, the Asian booths have swung 20 to 25% against the Liberals. Any thought that the Chinese community have forgiven Dutton for his bigoted rhetoric is pure fantasy. The latest Newspoll makes a mockery of the seat by seat analysis.
Resolve (Fairfax) includes a response option for independent candidates, where Newspoll does not.
The large difference is partly down to that.
Steve Davis
After Dutton’s comments on immigration today (we won’t set a target until after we are elected and we see how bad things are) people who vote Liberal might not know what policies they are voting for.
Dutton might apply that to everything.
We are still waiting for the nuclear power costings
Perhaps he will wait till after the election for that too.
Peggysays:
Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 9:56 pm
Massive difference between 27% and 33% primary vote. Has there ever been such a discrepancy between Fairfax and newscorp polls?
Most likely an aberration and the real primary around 30, but in general the pollsters seem to be confused and poll weighting is yielding some odd results
============
I’m new to this polling discussion Peggy and to be quite honest don’t know what to make of it, but from what I read of the posters on this site the Resolve poll is not well regarded, but the Newspoll poll is very well regarded.
New thread.
Centre @ #751 Sunday, December 8th, 2024 – 9:56 pm
You don’t deal with reality well, do you? What you meant to say is that YOU want the Coalition to win. There’s no magical numbers that say so, it’s just you and what you want to happen. And if you want to call my calling you out for what is as plain as the nose on your face, a ‘cheap shot’, then too bad. All your cheeky chappy stuff doesn’t wash with me. You’re just another Coalition supporter trying to make every post a winner for the horse you have in the race.
Rossmcg
Duttons latest is that the nuclear fantasy figures are to be released next week. We have heard it all before.
You’re being very generous to people on this site ThelC. From what I mostly read on this site, the poll that is favourable to my biases is well regarded, and the one that isn’t is not well regarded
Griff
Yep!
I wonder if there is a negativity saturation point?
Where people say, yeah, yeah, he is probably a terrible person, but then he is one of “The Political Class™”, and any one else we elect will be the same.
Last Newspoll result prior to ScoMo winning was ALP 51.5 to Coalition 48.5. Morgan was 52-48. The last Newspoll before Albo’s win put the ALP on 36% of the Primary vote and the Coalition on 35%.
I’d have thought a site dedicated to polling would be wary that the polls (here and abroad) have a tendency to overestimate the left vote and underestimate the right. Might explain why the betting sites are shortening the odds for the Coalition?
Democracy Sausage says:
Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 1:28 pm
This Indian woman Albo is imposing as a candidate for the seat of Barton, against the wishes of the NSW ALP and the branch members – what makes her so special? If you are passing over Sam Crosby for someone with a name nobody can pronounce, she better be good.
You mean, Councillor and unionist Ashvini Ambihaipahar. What does gender & ethnicity got to do with
quality candidate selection? Sam Crosby is the most unsuited Labor candidate I have ever campaigned for in over 50 years of Labor activism. The 2019 Federal election campaign in Reid showed him to be smug, arrogant and completely lacking simpatico with ordinary people. He focused his campaign on the wealthier eastern part of the electorate. When, unsurprisingly, he lost he sulked and never verbally thanked the big body of volunteers at the post election function.
So yeah a grass roots community and union activist easily passes over Sam Crosby, a Sussex Street operative and close buddy of Sam Dastyari.
Further, DS, what qualifies you to be a spokesperson for the NSW ALP & Barton branch members?
Better off than in 2022?
In 2022 inflation was at 6%, the RBA had commenced raising interest rates, belatedly given they were of the view that inflation was a temporary post COVID blip which the recovery of supply chains would fix
It didn’t, then we had pressure on energy and food prices due to the Russia/Ukraine situation
Inflation continued to 8%, interest rates having increased
The increasing of interest rates has worked, which it always does but, the price of that success is that Central Banks (globally) are contracting the economy, dampening demand
So what you get is what you get – and compared to elsewhere Australia has weathered the storm pretty well, other like economies with higher interest rates and some in recession with rising unemployed
Australia is on the cusp of the RBA (and the government) cautiously declaring that inflation is under reasonable control and that interest rates will ease
The anticipation of this is, over the last 4 weeks, leading to a recovery in sentiment (so discretionary spending)
For these reasons, the question “are you better off now than in 2022” has only one answer and it has to have only one answer
The real question is, having done the hard yards over the 3 years since the RBA stepped in because of inflation (and they lift rates incrementally – not by 4% in one hit), will you be better off in 2025 than you were in 2022?
And the answer to that is that you will be – because in 2022 we had out of control inflation on which the RBA had to move
In 2025, with inflation under control, we will have improved economic activity as confidence takes hold, interest rates reduce and wages increase (also tax cuts continuing to feed in)
Obviously you will not read this in the media, with the bias they have
But you will here it during the election campaign – because media will have to report what the government is saying
So those crowing that polling (and how useless is polling asking a question where there is only one answer to the question they pose – destroying confidence in any integrity polling has and it is done for media?) will be choking on their weeties when the question that should be being asked is asked
With the given that inflation is under control, confirmed by interest rates reducing, will you be better off in 2025 than you were in 2022 when inflation was entrenching and increasing
So wet your pants people, but that is the question and it (also) only has one answer
Let us call a spade a spade, and see what the response of the Tories on here is
1) In 2007, when coming to government Labor inherited rampant inflation, interest rate settings not reflecting this because it was an election year
2). In 2022, when coming to government Labor inherited rampant inflation, interest rates not reflecting this because it was an election year
On both occasions, following the elections (and a change of government), the RBA commenced increasing interest rates to address rampant inflation (and I should not have to explain the damage entrenched and increasing inflation does. Google Paul Volker)
What intersected in 2008 was the GFC, with the RBA responding by cutting the Cash Rate to near ZERO and the government providing impetus including by bringing forward out year purchasing of such as military uniforms, both to survive the economy
In the lead up to the GFC, the 10 Year Bond Yield had increased to have a 7 in front of it, and was increasing (in the current cycle it has a 4 in front of it for comparative purposes)
Post the GFC, the state of the economy (technically in recession) saw interest rates staying at near ZERO until the worst of the Pandemic saw the Cash Rate reduced to ZERO (well 0.1%) and the RBA buying back its securities to inject liquidity into the economy to survive the economy
The recovery from such events as the GFC and the Pandemic takes years, if not a decade or more
These are the facts
Abbott and austerity delivering confidence and that confidence trickling down saw the economic recovery from the GFC stalled – witness the Cash Rate at emergency settings
Someone should put these FACTS before the divisive, racist Dutton and the wet lettuce leaf which is his Treasury spokesperson