The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
I think there’s a reasonable chance we won’t know who has won on Saturday night.
Xenophon might not be making a return to the Senate given that article.
It is far from the first time he has been accused of poor dealings with women.
I remember Ann Bressington, a former running blasting him as well.
Scott from Adelaide
BOER war
And in typical style, the British ruling class did not even give James Cook a promotion or the Knighthood he truly deserved.
He finds a continent that no one else has the sense to colonise, starts the stealing of the land from the inhabitants, and paves the way for it to become a remote colony of Britain. As well, Cook sailed squillions of sea miles to explore ways to make Britain wealthier. The continent he sticks the flag on will go on to be a precious jewel in the map of Anglo-world influence 200 plus years later, including using its geography for satellite spy works. Unlike Hong Kong, there is no 99-year lease and none of India’s demands for independence nor Independence wars of the USA.
It also has loads of strange animals to study. So does Captian Cook become Captian Sir James Cook? Does he get given a medal? Not on your bloody life, mate! Cook is just a poor boy who worked his way up using his brilliance at mathematics and high intelligence to command missions to the other side of the Earth. Give him a gong? Give the commoner a title, that is a funny joke!’
If it was not seen nowadays as rewarding the theft of a continent from Aboriginal Australians, I would give a posthumous Knighthood to Capt. Jame Cook for Outstanding Seamanship and Contributions to the British Empire by claiming Australia as a colony.
Of course, I would sign a treaty with Aboriginal Australians, pay reparations, and implement the recommendations of The Statement From the Heart first and foremost.
It’s time to end the politics as usual and get on with taking action to address the climate crisis and growing inequality. Just put Labor somewhere above the Libs/Nats and give your higher preferences to the Greens and indies.
Don’t waste your vote on Labor and especially not on the Coalition. A vote for either of them is a vote for more coal and gas.
Lets kick Morrison and his far right nutters out and get on with the job!
FTR – I think there’s a good chance we may not have an actual declaration/concession/victory on Saturday… but it is likely to be clear what the outcome WILL be.
If the swings on we will know Saturday night.
From Imogen Champagne at Crikey on Tacklegate:
‘But the coverage didn’t stop there — and now we get to the truly icky party of the situation. Acting Minister for Education Stuart Robert (a man who has a few things to tackle as well) fronted up on Radio National this morning and was asked about the tackle. His response perfectly encapsulated the Coalition’s attitude to blame-shifting, as he described the event as “an error by both of them”.
Yes, according to the man in charge of education in this country, the seven-year-old was equally to blame for being tackled to the ground by a full-grown man during a casual training session in a non-contact sport. Righto.
_______________________________
By way of full disclosure: I’m a life member of the I hate Scomo club.
How on earth did the bozo actually do this? The ball was nowhere near him, it was going the other way. There was absolutely no reason to run into that kid. He just fell over – on top of him – for no apparent reason.
He is as clumsy as he is incompetent..
Did anyone say ICAC?
“I think there’s a reasonable chance we won’t know who has won on Saturday night.”
***
And it’s almost certain that we won’t know the makeup of the Senate on Saturday either, although we should have a bit of a better idea. It’s going to take weeks for them to work out all those prefs, especially for the QLD contest.
If Labor win they will be able to attribute victory to those who have been badly hurt by Reactionary rule – younger voters, women, working people who need a pay rise – and to the self-started, internal dissolution of the Lying Reactionary plurality.
“If Labor win they will be able to attribute victory to”
***
…Morrison and how loathed he is.
SA Bludger
I am not expecting any kind of landslide, and since the Greens could easily take 1 or 2 seats off Labor, I am not confident about a Labor majority government.
Equally if neither side gets a majority I am quite confident Labor will form a minority government. Bandt, Wilkie and any new Greens will vote for supply for Labor. I suspect, if there is a deal for a Federal ICAC and action on climate change, Steggall and most of any new Teals will vote for supply to Labor. Rebeccah Sharkie is unknown, but she also wants action on climate change, and it would only take a BRT to Mt Barker to get her vote.
What I have very little confidence in, is any kind of Morrison majority government. There are too many different places the LNP could lose seats, and they only have a thin majority now. The 2019 election result is different from current polls by more than MOE, and there are only two days left.
Then once Morrison is in minority, for the reason I have listed above, I do not expect Morrison to form government. It would be political suicide for the Indies, and Morrison has made a lot of enemies.
So overall, I am still very confident the government is going to change. There are risks, but that is life.
Yesterday I used the preference flows from 2016 to look at the Queensland numbers from the Resolve polling… I thought it might be fun to see what the federal swing looks like, as well as the state swings, based on BludgerTrack’s numbers.
All preference flow percentages are flows to Labor.
Federal numbers: Greens 81.94%, PHON 49.53%, Other 49.22%.
Results: 54.52% Labor (+0.22% compared with BT)
NSW: Greens 81.24%, PHON 57.17%, Other 43.7%
Results: 52.93% Labor (+0.03% compared with BT)
VIC: Greens 83.34%, PHON ??? (using 35.64% from 2019), Other 53.5%
Results: 55.33% Labor (+0.83% compared with BT)
QLD: Greens 80.09%, PHON 48.11%, Other 45.61%
Results: 51.2% Labor (+0.4% compared with BT)
WA: Greens 78.83%, PHON ??? (using 37.21% from 2019), Other 39.73%
Results: 53% Labor (-1% compared with BT)
SA: Greens 84.42%, PHON ??? (using 41.66% from 2019), Other 57.02%
Results: 57.15% (+1.25% compared with BT)
If you plug these into Antony Green’s Election Calculator (using state numbers only), you get 87 seats for Labor, assuming no swing for Tasmania.
And if you work out what the average swing across Tasmania, ACT, and NT must be to give the federal 2PP, you get a huge 15.5%. Which seems implausible, but it’s what the numbers say…
Interestingly, using the BludgerTrack’s own 2PP calculations, the swing across Tasmania, ACT, and NT would need to be 16.9% to match the Federal and State 2PP numbers.
I suspect we will know the result on Saturday evening, but I have been the opposite of right on occasion.
Bludging @ #559 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:38 pm
I’m sure the second wealth older people squeal they’ll head straight back to ignoring poor and young people if their previous form is anything to go by. Already abandoned job seeker being raised.
Firefox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:35 pm
It’s time to end the politics as usual….
Yes, I concur. I see the Apostates are advocating prefs for the Pseudo-Reactionaries ahead of Labor. The Apostates have their evil hearts set on blackmail.
Gee and I thought Bandt was going to release a platform that might appeal to 50% +1 of the electorate.
Baldign middle-aged white man
“By way of full disclosure: I’m a life member of the I hate Scomo club.”
Membership of that club comes with free associate membership of the “Yes you are paying attention club” and the “Yes you have a conscience club”.
SA expat – Anyone on the ground in Grey and Sturt? Keen to hear pre-polling vibes
Socrates,
Are they affiliated with the empathy club?
We won’t be waiting for prepoll or WA to know the outcome.
All the legitimate polling (polling in the last week doesn’t count because it’s all just herded to where the higher ups think it’ll be rather than being based on data) points to something along the lines of 80 Labor, 8-12 others and high low 60s or high 50s for Liberals.
WA is a guaranteed 2 gains for labor, maybe up to 4 if the swing is really on, but if the swing is on that much, it’ll be called for Labor very early. WA’s not going to change the election. AG will just bake in an assumed +2 labor seats from WA.
This isn’t the American presidential election, where prepolling was a giant left right divide. The election period since prepoll opened has been a snoozefest, with no major policy announcements or slip ups. Prepoll will swing in the same direction and broadly the same magnitude as on the day votes. AG will just use booth matching and treat prepolls and postals as a booth. He knows what he’s doing and it’ll be fine.
Coalition majority government ruled out at 19:10
Coalition minority government ruled out at 19:40
Labor minority government ruled out at 20:10.
Bludging
I need to check with you that I’ve squeezed your categories into my columns in an OK way, by you.
(My column) — Bludging descriptor
(ALP) — Labor 99
(Teal) — Cross-bench/pseudo-Reactionary 15
(Ind) — Wilkie 1
(GRN) — Apostate 1
(LNP) — Lying Reactionaries 35
BTW: Thanks for painting the joyous wild man last night.
Firefox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:41 pm
“If Labor win they will be able to attribute victory to”
***
…Morrison and how loathed he is.
Not so much. Politicians as a group are near-universally reviled. Political leaders in particular are regarded with special contempt. To be chosen for political leadership in Australia is to be damned.
Voters are motivated by many things. Phobia is a big one. The Reactionaries and their sidekicks campaign on fear and hate far more than on hope and unity. The Apostates are no exception. They come to campaigns armed with phobias and resentments.
“Equally if neither side gets a majority I am quite confident Labor will form a minority government. Bandt, Wilkie and any new Greens will vote for supply for Labor.”
***
Even though Labor HQ have repeatedly ruled out working with the Greens in the event they do not reach 76 seats, it is interesting to note that Labor supporters are actually factoring it in to their calculations. Apparently even they know that Butler and the ALP’s desperate attempts to deceive voters are baseless.
Labor promise higher deficits.
Pauline Hanson tests positive for Covid two days out from election
The unvaccinated One Nation leader has tested positive for Covid just two days out from the federal election.
There is a deity and she has a sense of humour?!
My social circle is relatively small however, thus far, out of everyone I have encountered who voted for the LNP in 2019 not a single one is voting for them this year.
This includes a person in senior management on over $300k pa and who receives $100k bonuses if performance targets are met.
This includes tradies who own their business and employ people and who are also on six figure incomes.
This includes tradie dads who, at last night’s soccer training for our kids, all laughed and ridiculed ScoMo and called him a “dickhead” whilst watching the child-tackling incident on their iPhones.
Not a single person I have met so far is voting LNP this time around. The hatred is visceral. You can sense it in the way they talk about him and dismiss him.
If the polls have got it ‘wrong’ and are underestimating the visceral hatred for ScoMo, it’s heading for a massacre Dan Andrews 2018 style.
Those are just my views based on my experiences admittedly, on a smallish sample.
Firefox, Bandt has already said the Greens will not support the Coalition. No further negotiation needs to happen.
Late Riser says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:48 pm
Bludging
I need to check with you that I’ve squeezed your categories into my columns in an OK way, by you.
(My column) — Bludging descriptor
(ALP) — Labor 99
(Teal) — Cross-bench/pseudo-Reactionary 15
(Ind) — Wilkie 1
(GRN) — Apostate 1
(LNP) — Lying Reactionaries 35
BTW: Thanks for painting the joyous wild man last night.
Cheers LR.
🙂
(I think I made a classification error in my estimates, above. Should be Cross-bench/pseudo- Reactionary 14 and Lying Reactionary 36, other correct)
I have everything crossed for victory and am about to go and vote.
[ltep says: Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:50 pm
Labor promise higher deficits.]
After the highest deficits on record and 1 trillion in debt the lnp shouldn’t throw stones in glass houses.
Unlike the lnp this money is being spent on areas that will be productive for the economy – If you look at that $7.4 billion difference between the budgets, you add up skills in universities and training in universities, cleaner and cheaper energy and childcare
“Politicians as a group are near-universally reviled.”
***
There is a fair bit of truth to that statement actually. Some – the duopoly especially – are more reviled than others.
I say this all the time but we need Katy and Jim in charge of the budget after Saturday. They are a great team
Firefox @ #578 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:52 pm
The same duopoly that gets around 80% of the votes as against ~ 11?
Firefox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:49 pm
“Equally if neither side gets a majority I am quite confident Labor will form a minority government. Bandt, Wilkie and any new Greens will vote for supply for Labor.”
***
Even though Labor HQ have repeatedly ruled out working with the Greens in the event they do not reach 76 seats, it is interesting to note that Labor supporters are actually factoring it in to their calculations. Apparently even they know that Butler and the ALP’s desperate attempts to deceive voters are baseless.
Albo plays the long game. He will never, ever parlay with the Apostates. Never. Your plans for the standover-politics of the mafiosi will fail as long as Albo is the leader.
You premise your strategy on betrayal. This is utterly shameful.
Voice Endeavour @ #566 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:48 pm
I think your guess is consistent with “AG declares a win for Labor at 20:10” and I’ll record it that way, but please let me know if I got it wrong.
$7.4b added to the deficit under Labor’s plan. Sweet FA
“Firefox, Bandt has already said the Greens will not support the Coalition. No further negotiation needs to happen.”
***
Sure, if you want us to just consider each individual bit of legislation on it’s own then we can work with that. Much harder for Labor that way though.
Regardless of negotiations or otherwise, the very fact that Labor supporters themselves know that the Greens have ruled out working with the Coalition and that they know that they do not need to reach 76 seats in order to gain government (see Gillard/Greens/Ind from 2010-13) totally blows their own desperate disinformation campaigns out of the water.
Firefox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:52 pm
“Politicians as a group are near-universally reviled.”
***
There is a fair bit of truth to that statement actually. Some – the duopoly especially – are more reviled than others.
The perpetual bad-mouthing of politicians by other politicians is a singular feature of this. Political phobia is seeded, watered, fertilised, cultivated and harvested by political exponents. No-one is better practiced in the use of phobia than the Greens. This is their specialty.
This election boils down to one simple decision: You vote for the shouty man you get the shouty man.
Barney
“Are they affiliated with the empathy club?”
I expect so. You would be banned from the Newscorp Staff Club, of course.
The Greens have one seat. They’re unlikely to have more.
The Teals already have more and look to gain more.
In a minority government, the Greens are going to be a fair way down the consultation list.
$7.4b over four years. Say $2b in a yearly budgeted expenditure of $500b represents an additional 0.4%.
Almost rounding. Pfftt!
“This election boils down to one simple decision: You vote for the shouty man you get the shouty man.”
***
Morrison has a repulsive personality, no doubt about that.
But this election is about so much more than just personality. It is about the future of our country and of our planet.
The choice is simple. A vote for Labor or the Coalition is a vote for more coal and gas – it is a vote to deny what the science is telling us we need to do in order to avoid further catastrophic climate change.
Vote climate. Vote Greens.
Firefox,
That’s basically how Gillard Government worked. Negotiations happened before legislation was introduced into Reps and once an agreement was reached the legislation passed and the Senate was just a rubber stamp.
Firefox, I imagine there aren’t too many votes to win here.
Voice Endeavour @ #563 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:48 pm
I get where you’re coming from, but Antony Green doesn’t rely on opinion polling data to make the call. He won’t make the call until he has enough data to be confident that Labor (or the Coalition – but that’s not relevant with this election) has won enough seats to form government.
That means he needs to be ready to call 76 seats for Labor. And to do that without at least some confidence about WA results, there will need to be enough seats counted far enough with a big enough margin to Labor for them to get there outside of WA. Which means the counts have to have proceeded far enough. Even if we pretended the on-the-night counts for everywhere else were completed by, say, 8pm, you then need to factor in about a 2% margin requirement in case the non-local pre-polls, declaration votes, and postal votes tilt things.
Using BludgerTrack’s numbers for a moment, there would be 10 electorates on 2% or less margin gained by Labor. Add to this the 3 WA seats that are currently held by Liberals but that would be won by Labor, and the 5 WA seats currently held by Labor, and you’re looking at 18 electorates that would fail to be called at that point, and the predicted 89 total is still only at 71. Not enough to call it.
Even if Antony Green were willing to take as assumed that Labor would win Fremantle, Brand, Bert, and Perth, as the Labor-held seats on a decent margin, Cowan is on a margin of 0.9%, which means he wouldn’t call it… and that leaves Labor on 75. And he won’t call an election if parliament could be hung.
Typically, by 8pm, only about 40% or less of votes are counted anywhere except Tasmania. And numbers don’t usually start coming from NT (or WA) until after 8pm – that’s another two seats that Antony Green wouldn’t be able to call yet.
Antony Green wouldn’t just assume anything. His job is based on him making accurate calls and being the most trustworthy election analyst in the country. If he were to call the election incorrectly, it would look very bad for him. He’ll call it when he’s satisfied the chances of being wrong are tiny. And considering the polling failure in 2019, he’ll be more careful than ever before.
“The Greens have one seat. They’re unlikely to have more.
The Teals already have more and look to gain more.”
***
The Greens currently have 10 seats in the parliament and there is a pretty good chance they will have more, actually.
There are currently two Teals in the parliament – Haines and Steggall. It is likely there will be a few more after the election. I’ll go with 5 or 6 (so plus 3 or 4 new Teals).
I don’t think #pollfail will factor into a call of the election, since that is based off of the data of votes counted, booth-matched projections etc.
who did the Guardian recommend at the 2019 election, anyone remember?
“ A poll-shaped object from online Chinese-language media outlet Sydney Today. The poll w/ 6093 Chinese participants in Australia had ALP at almost 75% & under 18% for L/NP. This compares to 2019 #ausvotes poll they did where it was L/NP 61%, ALP 28%”
https://twitter.com/redrabbleroz/status/1527081791143956480?s=21&t=ottErYLCTvV95pgI3TofnQ
The first Russian soldier on trial for war crimes committed in Ukraine has entered a Guilty plea in the Ukraine court holding his trial. He is alleged to have shot an unarmed civilian in an Ukrainian village.
This may have an effect on Russia’s willingness to exchange the Prisoners of War who surrendered from the steelworks of Mariupol. Some Russian politicians are calling for their designation as a terrorists and declaring their regiment, the Asov Unit, a terrorist organisation. However, the Asov unit fights under the command of the Ukrainian defence force. There are no private military groups in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, residents of the areas under Russian control Ukrainian people are being forcibly relocated to Russia after being put into Assignment Camps for processing. It looks like Russia has been learning from our Stop the Boats campaign, only for Russia it is Stop the Residents.
Putin may even award himself a glass trophy etched with a design of an Ukrainain house with a child playing in the garden, and bearing the slogan ‘I Stopped These.’