The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
I can see AG muttering words to the effect of ‘This is looking ominous for the Coalition” or “This is looking like the recent WA election” by around 7.30 or so…
I am someone who was worried about the 2019 result due to the fact that many, normally, ALP supporters that I spoke to were shying away from Shorten because he was seen as being a ‘faceless man’ in the role of knifing Rudd whom the electors had chosen.
My best hopes in an unpredictable election…on the premise that the split in Reactionary opinion will manifest in stronger than past pref flows to Labor and away from the Lying Reactionaries in contestable seats:
Labor win Swan, Pearce, Hasluck, Canning, Tangney, Moore, Durack, Boothby, Sturt, Bass, Braddon, Chisholm, Higgins, Deakin, La Trobe, Flinders, Reid, Robertson, Lindsay, North Sydney, Bennelong, Banks, Ryan, Brisbane, Petrie, Longman, Dickson, Flynn, Leichardt, Forde.
X-Bench win Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Nicholls, Hughes, Wentworth, MacKellar, Bradfield, Grey, Cowper
Labor 99
Cross-bench/pseudo-Reactionary 15
Wilkie 1….Easily wins on PV
Apostate 1…. Bandt easily wins on PV
Lying Reactionaries 35
2PP…not that it is all that relevant…53.5/46.5, and very unevenly distributed, reflecting the success of the Lite in drawing votes away from both Labor and the Lying Reactionaries in around 20 seats. 2CP results for Labor are better in the seats in which it is in the contest, reflecting a swing of around 7-8% to Labor nationally in the electorates in which the final throw is between Labor and the LRP.
Result called….11 pm Eastern Australian time…after most of the pre poll results are added and their pref assignments are included….
Morrison concedes….Tuesday week after the election is declared by the AEC.
Bravo Albo!!
Journalists should stop fixating on the financial price tag of proposed federal government programs. That information is irrelevant, especially when presented with zero context (such as whether there is unused real resource space in the economy; whether there are realistic ways of increasing supply of the required real resources; how big the program is as a share of total federal spending and as a share of national economic activity).
When evaluating proposals for federal government programs the relevant question is “How will we resource this?” not “How will we pay for this?” If the real resources are available for sale in the government’s currency, the government can always make the payments. There is no financial constraint. The real resource constraints, the political obstacles, and how to reduce or overcome those two things are what matter here.
Antony G calls it 19:38
Albanese claims victory 21:15
Morrison concession 23:25
Bree @ #456 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:22 pm
ROFL. 😆
Socrates
ABC Time of election call 9.15PM.
I am really bad at this but I want to put down WB to call it at 8:28 EST before there is anything meaningful out of WA and AG to do it about half an hour later say 20:53 with some WA input (I should check the tape to see when WA booths actually came in in 2019 but I haven’t)
“Morrison concession 23:25”
A week later after he fails to drum up any support for a 6 June rebellion to storm Parliament house and keep him in power.
I thought that Capt James Cook was just stopping over to collect some Sandwiches
(Bree says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 12:22 pm
Unemployment falling to 3.9% is a big win for the Liberal Government just a few days out from the federal election and with so many undecided voters still out there. This 3.9% unemployment rate will flip those undecided voters to voting Liberal and the government will be re-elected, this is the simple reality.)
The simple reality is the unemployment figures are double that (8%), unless you consider one days work as being employed.
SA Voter @ #495 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:57 pm
I’ve recorded your guess as 21:30 PM Poll Bludger Time. 🙂
(PB is UTC +10:00.)
Already the ALP is avoiding scrutiny after banging on about being accountable they have reverted back to the same playbook.
Late Risersays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 12:17 pm
PB GUESSING GAME, May-18 12:39
TIME THAT THE WINNER IS DECLARED by A.Green
_____________________
20:51 for Taylormade please.
Tom @ #498 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:01 pm
Just checking that you’re updating your guess from 8:20PM to 7:30PM?
Nicholas
“When evaluating proposals for federal government programs the relevant question is “How will we resource this?”
That’s an awesome thought – hadn’t thought of it that way before.
As far as I know anything about these things, when the election is called depends upon the AEC indicative 2PP, which is determined beforehand. The envelope is opened on the night by the Returning Officer.
Therefore, especially in seats some may think will go to the X Bench, there may be a 2PP of Labor V Liberal or National and the actual results in these seats, ie unexpected Teal gains, could be held up for quite a while, at least until the Returning Officer gets the word to AEC HQ that it looks like another 2PP count needs to be conducted and then AEC HQ gets the word back to the Returning Officers at each booth in that electorate to do the revised 2PP. So, it could be a long night actually.
Quite possible we will not know the overall result for a few days due to the record number of pre poll, absentee and postal votes being cast this election.
It could come down to WA too – the seats of Swan Pearce, Hasluck and Curtin.
Those thinking AG will be able to make a definitive call at 7.30PM eastern standard time could be very wrong
“Already the ALP is avoiding scrutiny after banging on about being accountable they have reverted back to the same playbook.”
Nah not scrutiny, just minimising the window and source material for the liar from the shire, the MSM and idiot cult members to lie about it.
You know how it is after all Morrison only won on the back of lies about tax rises.
Late Riser @ #514 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:09 pm
No, my guess for the actual declaration is still 20:20. Cheers
I’ve rewatched the video of Morrison bowling over the child. I think he was slipping anyway, the child just got in the way. My thought for the day, imagine if the child hadn’t been there? Morrison would still have gone arse over tit. The pictures would have been him sprawling on the ground with the headlines something like “Morrison campaign comes a cropper”.
Remember, though, that similar statements were made in the lead up to the recent State elections – that we’d have to wait days for the results due to high postal votes due to COVID etc – when in fact it was clear on the night who would be able to form government.
Yes, the call in some seats was delayed, but that isn’t an issue if there are already enough seats across the line.
C@tmomma @ #500 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:11 pm
True this. Unless the AEC is already planning to do 2CP including Independents in some seats – probably not unless the Indy is the incumbent or came second last election – they’ll need to do a new preference count.
Fortunately though, this won’t affect the result if Labor get 76+ seats so maybe the result will be known before then. If it’s obvious that Labor can’t get to a majority, it may be a long way to see whether The Filth can.
“A week later after he fails to drum up any support for a 6 June rebellion to storm Parliament house and keep him in power.”
If he does it, he would be stupid, hamfisted, and malevolent about it. And I hope it fucks everything up for him, including the LNP. He won’t recognise it though, due to his high-functioning mental illness.
Nick Xenophon’s complicated love life has returned to haunt him in the dying days of the election campaign with a woman who worked at Parliament House revealing he bombarded her with text messages before leaving her.
Former Parliament House executive chef Yunari (who requested her full name not be published) has told news.com.au she was left “distressed and embarrassed” after dating Mr Xenophon for two years while he was a senator, before he left her for a woman 25 years his junior with whom he would have a child.
Mr Xenophon was a senator for South Australia from 2008 to 2017 first as an independent then leader of micro-party the Nick Xenophon Team. He is now running for the Senate again.
Yunari has attracted support from another woman who has previously accused Mr Xenophon of “manipulative, controlling and inappropriate” behaviour during a seven-year relationship, which he has denied.
“I am embarrassed I was ever involved with him,” Yunari told news.com.au.
“It’s not a nice feeling whenever you turn the TV on and you see that person on TV.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/nick-xenophons-ex-reveals-desperate-texts-before-leaving-her-for-another-woman/news-story/87f3995804e08e636ddb3321cf45b0fc
Hardly anyone in the media took notice of the last Ipsos where Labor were leading 57-43. its bound to drop and theres much more emphasis on it this week.
“There’s no need to dip into your Super to come to this concert on Sunday. ”
Starts the email from Sydney Philharmonia Choir about their Sunday (Day After) Concert at the Town Hall.
And this, in the spirit of very good omens, is on the programme:
https://youtu.be/Q2nQxo80E6k
https://www.sydneyoperahouse.com/events/whats-on/SydneyPhilharmoniaChoirs/2022/jubilation.html?
subgeometer @ #501 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:02 pm
I need to check that you’re OK putting 23:25 as the time someone concedes. IOW that your guess is still valid if Albanese concedes at 23:25. (I think most are assuming it will be Morrison’s concession, but 2019 and all that.)
Current voting 2pp for women – if true the lnp will be toast:
I won’t guess a time, but you can put me down for “AG battles misbehaving ABC Election Computer.” 🙂
Nearly 200,000 Australians who’ve tested positive for COVID-19 and are self-isolating risk not being able to vote in this election because they’re ineligible for phone voting and instead must rely on their postal ballots arriving in time.
Since 2013, about 2000 blind or vision-impaired Australians have voted via the phone voting method. The Australian Electoral commissioner was given the power to allow “coronavirus-affected individuals” to use phone voting from 6.01pm on the Wednesday before the election when the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 was amended in February. The Wednesday cut-off is written into the act and can’t be changed by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).
A total of 193,882 Australians reported testing positive for COVID between Sunday and Wednesday. These people are expected to self-isolate past election day but are ineligible for phone voting. Instead they must rely on their mail ballots arriving in time or miss out on voting. Some have been told by the AEC that their ballot papers won’t be delivered until after the election.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/19/voting-covid-19-phone-cut-off/
Late Riser – 9.32pm
“You know how it is after all Morrison only won on the back of lies about tax rises.”
***
It’s all rather absurd. The Coalition are suggesting Labor will raise taxes, when in fact Labor have teamed up with the Coalition to give tax cuts to the rich and have committed to going through with them should they win.
I’m almost certain the CPG has been deliberately stacked with former young Libs.
I want Casey Briggs being awesome.
Can anyone advise what time Chalmers is up re costings ?
TIA.
5-10 mins @Rex
Eve Tingle realises what a shit show that journalists are nowadays.
9.30 pm
All over,
Let the palooza begin.
Jubilation at the end of darkness,
And a new beginning.
All hail, King Albo.
(Ready the dungeons)
Wed 325pm Sydney time
Rex Douglas @ #535 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:24 pm
When are the lnp going to cost the $30 billion in election promises – currently they have only costed 35 of hundreds of announcements.
Jaeger @ #295 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:03 am
For me it’s 7 all the way (but I will watch part of 9’s coverage for their exit poll).
Time declared on the night:
22:22
Much appreciated thank you Late Riser. 🙂
Seat estimates to come when time permits.
Gee there’s some confident PBers here.
Yikes to that Xenophon article. Questions over public interest, but there is a work connection given the Jenkins Review.
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:23 pm
I’m almost certain the CPG has been deliberately stacked with former young Libs.
There is a double-standard applied to Labor at all times and in all places. This is a feature of the Labor-phobia that is implicit in the world view of most in the media and in the chattering classes, among whom the editors of Rexology are a typical example.
SA Bludger @ #544 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 1:28 pm
The data backs that confidence up – same time in 2019 it was 30% alp, 40% hung parliament, 30% lnp, in 2022 it’s 60% alp, 30% hung parliament and 10% lnp.
The error in polling this time would have to be even greater and using preference flows form 2019 even the resolve poll gave the alp 80+ seats.
On the unemployment figures out today, Albo should make a virtue out of not remembering them. Because they don’t mean much.
As the population raises, with the birth rate below replacement level, two years of closed borders guaranteed we were creating new jobs faster than new workers. So unemployment will fall almost regardless of Federal policy.
But the real measure of economic health is no longer unemployment, but under-employment. That number is far larger, varying from 10% to 18%, depending on whose figures you believe. So people have low job security, and accept low pay as a result.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-anthony-albanese-to-release-labor-s-costings-six-million-australians-voting-early-as-campaign-enters-final-days-20220518-p5amh8.html
@SA – I honestly see no reason to not have a degree of confidence at this point, albiet considered and not absolute in any way.
I mean, you never know – I was certainly not at ALL confident this time three years ago. It’ll likely be closer than it should be… but I’ll be here Sunday with a mea culpa if I was over-confident.
BC says headlines would have been Morrison comes a cropper. Knowing the Murdochcracy would be something like”Scomoe falls for Australia, how good is he! you definitely should vote for him!!!”