The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
jt1983
2019 results are still fresh for some.
I didn’t expect Labor to win in 2019. So I am okay in that regard. But if they don’t get over the line this time, I will be triggered.
It’s called work ethic, Steely. Lib pollies are renowned bludgers, and Scommo never goes anywhere without an army of protectors. You really are pushing that panic button!
Steelydan @ #235 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:28 am
How quickly and conveniently you have forgotten Tony Abbott doing pretty much the same thing in 2013. 😐
Morriosn is likely to lose but few PM’s have a legacy like Aukus and Quad alliances. These alliances will be the building blocks of Australia’s international security for decades to come. Could Labor have achieved this, I want to believe they could have but decisions like Rudd dismantling of the pacific solution and Gillard banning live exports after a four corners show, say otherwise.
Was that a kid’s soccer game? I thought it was rugby and Morrison was tackling the kid. He could have put that kid in hospital. Morrison was visibly out of breath before that tackle, standing with his chest heaving.
Morrison just had to go in to get the ball never mind the kids and fell over. The only reason the kid wasn’t crushed was Morrison put his hands each side of the kid to stop fall.
Morrison should be charged with assault. No player in a soccer game is allowed to tackle like that and there are stricter rules in modified rules for children.
Morrison is a complete aerskole.
Boerwar @ #209 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:13 am
You don’t like democracy?
Morisson is certainly going to have a legacy
It is going to be all those who died from COVID because he could not organise the vaccines and we had a delayed roll out.
Scott from Adelaide
The quad’s upgrade is mainly a Biden initiative, so whoever is in power would embrace it anyway. As for aukus, maybe someone else as PM would not have pissed off Macron so much.
Morrison has done a fuckload more damage than good when it comes to our international reputation.
Ok – using the AFL Categorisation of the level of offence:
ScoMos tackle is Reckless, the impact level is high (he is a chubby unit) and the contact is to the body of the boy who obviously was winded and possibly has sustained a few broken ribs in the process.
So we are talking a level 4 penalty, Scotty should be booted from the campaign for 4 weeks, but knowing the tribunal and that he is from Sydney, I expect Scott to be fully available for the Grand Final on Saturday…
Victoria @ #246 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:34 am
How feral the Liberals go after Labor’s costings are released will tell the story. I feel another 6 month media blackout coming.
@ Steelydan
Aukus and Quad are the easy show-pony things. The tough stuff is things like getting the NDIS to run smoothly and putting people in a position where their wages aren’t going backwards. The LNP deserves to be put to the sword simply for being the most corrupt government since Federation (correct me if I’m wrong but at least try to provide some evidence to the contrary).
Poor Steely can’t be that naive , surely.
Any politician worth their salt never stops campaigning right up to the day itself. Look back over the past 60 years of elections and try and understand what a good political work ethic is.
There’s one thing l do know, Morrison hasn’t got it.
I wasn’t aware of this. Not likely, surely?
Michael Secomb@secomb_michael · May 17
Replying to
@philmupp1
Roy Morgan says Dutton will lose Dickson on a 6% 2PP ALP lead.
Victoria @ #193 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:08 am
Oooooh Jenny!
mundo @ #259 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:43 am
Shorten didn’t campaign in 20 seats in 2019, didn’t campaign on friday and the media didn’t go that hard at him in the last few days of the campaign – it was over by the last week?
This time it’s different – the lnp and their media hacks have an air of desperation about them.
Alpha Zero @ #259 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:43 am
No, Don’t boot him from the campaign! Do you want the Libs to win?
@Victora – I get that…
It’s more the degree to which think Morrison DELIBERATELY targeted a child – as opposed to what almost certainly happened – he’s was over-excited and his tripped over his own feet.
Here’s a solution for the ACT strategic voting conundrum described by William in the Crikey article: Park your 1 vote with the Labor #2 candidate (Northam). Then put Gallagher in at 2, and Pocock at 3.
If Gallagher is short of a quota, your vote will go to her just as if you’d put her at #1. If she’s not, your vote will go at full value to Pocock.
“Because we have two daughters who are voting at a federal election for the first time, we will have a team meeting to make sure that we vote formally before I tell them how to vote.”
Shellbell
Always good to see the family that votes together, stays together.
Another 4 votes for the good guys, lol
Morgan gonna Morgan.
If Dutton goes by anything like 6%, of course, this time in 2025 we will be sagely nodding about how the Morgan poll is the one that counts. Link to the actual poll story?
I note that the Morgan poll state breakdowns have (I think consistently?) had Labor getting enough swing in Qld to win Dickson and several others based on a uniform swing.
Qld seat polls have been rare (nobody willing to stake their rep on it, probably) which has led to this weird setup where a number of national polls state breakdowns have been bullish about Labor in QLD and yet everyone just assumed it’s gonna be wrong and at most Brisbane and maybe Ryan will fall. It isn’t automatically wrong…
Aren’t we all getting a bit desperate parsing a soccer mishap for political advantage/meaning/consequence?
Listen to questions coming from the media stooges Albo is dealing with.
They’re really are putrid filth.
Turnbull is out campaigning in Western Sydney – hopefully it’s the lnp’s version of the bob brown convoy from 2019.
C@tmomma @ #251 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:35 am
Then, there was the recent episode of Morrison’s minders man-handling the (admittedly rather loquacious) ex Solomon Islands High Commissioner. Flanked By Minders episode 101.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-solomon-islands-high-commissioner-manhandled-by-morrison-s-security-20220512-p5akuj.html
@ jt1983
I much prefer to believe he deliberately targeted the boy, it makes me feel better. I’m not in any mood to give the proven creep the benefit of any doubt.
Nice one Albo.
@Sohar
Not sure, but maybe someone has applied the estimated QLD TPP across all seats and came up with this. I personally didn’t think RM did individual electorate polling, but may be wrong.
William
A couple of typos in your thread intro ..
“52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Daniel”
and
“others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among women”
SD: “Morrison does not need to be flanked with minders.”
lol. Morrison won’t be seen in public without his minders. He’s terrified of normal people interracting with him. Everything he does is stage-managed.
Bellwether @ #275 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:54 am
I think we can all agree that Sport is the winner here.
Evan says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 8:47 am
Where is the much hyped Albo dirt file that was apparently going to be dropped early this week?
Or is Shari Markson still working on it?
If Albo does win, he can thank largely the women of Australia, harking back to Paul Keating’s victory speech of 1993, the gender gap this time seems to be enormous.
Blokes over 40 seem to love Morrison – well this 53 year old beer drinking bloke can’t stand Smirko and voted Labor last week, I’m the exception to the rule I guess, or one of them.
Proud to be a member of the Poll Bludger Labor blokes pissup club, eh Upnorth!
中华人民共和国
Morrison is a wanker enough said.
Phil Gaetjens has been called in to impartially investigate the tackle.
”
Dsays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:23 am
The most openly corrupt incompetent government in Australias history is competitive…& that angers me.
At some point corruption has become the new norm.
What the feck!
”
ALP should be winning in a canter like in WA State election. But it is not and LNP is still competitive this election. That itself is astonishing to put it mildly.
700000 18-24 enrolled new for this election and it seems 18-24 year olds constitute about 25% voters in Griffith and Brisbane as per a report discussed on ABC News radio this morning.
That is the reason why Greens have such high hopes for those electorates.
Red13 @ #262 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:46 am
Not to mention how Labor were pilloried in 2019 for putting their feet up and having a beer because they thought they had it in the bag in 2019. Not that that was the case, it was just the media misrepresenting drinks to commemorate Bob Hawke’s legacy.
Expat Follower
If Albanese had crashed on top of that kid it would have been a massive picture on the front of The Australian and I’m sure their writers would be saying that it was emblematic of Labor’s ‘crash through’ style.
The Lib bots must be getting a good hourly rate to spout this endless gumph so early in the day.
@Expat Follower
It goes down with the John Howard attempted delivery and Bill Shorten’s weird sausage eating as classic campaign moments, as they were meant to be perfectly scripted but went totally, hilariously, awry. Nothing to read into it, but funny as hell when it happens to an ordinary person and no one got hurt.
Lars Von Trier @ #282 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:57 am
pay that
Smart of Albo to be doing a huge campaign blitz for the last 2 days of the campaign, in comparison Shorten at this point in the 2019 campaign had virtually shut up shop whereas Morrison was going from electorate to electorate even on the election day of that Saturday.
Hardly betrays weakness in the Labor position, Taylormade, nice try though!
UpNorth: Beer fridge filled, beer belly primed for a big one mate! Wishing you the same in Thailand.
mundo says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 9:54 am
Nice one Albo.
中华人民共和国
You keep your chin up for me digger. Go get em. We got this matey if you keep your chin up and get every vote between now and Saturday 6.00pm. You and thousands of other Labor people like C@t are working their guts out for a win.
The Tories are shitting themseleves and Albo’s 20 seat tour is kicking the Turds in the goolies.
You keep the faith old son. It’s never easy for Labor to win – every bastard is against us – but I reckon we got this one.
Player One @ #280 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:56 am
Nah, Bellwether won.
Steelydan says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 9:28 am
Loath him all you want but Morrison does not need to be flanked with minders.
—
Benefit of having a pre-vetted, sympathetic crowd when he mingles with ‘the public’.
Any thoughts on which channel’s election night panel is the one to watch?
Victoria :
There have been another 14 COVID-19 deaths.
There are 512 cases in hospital, with 32 of those in intensive care and seven requiring ventilation.
There were 13,201 new cases today.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
NSW :
The state has recorded 22 more COVID-19 deaths.
There are 1,283 cases in hospital and 46 of those are in intensive care.
There were 10,964 new cases announced today.
Evan says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:00 am
Smart of Albo to be doing a huge campaign blitz for the last 2 days of the campaign, in comparison Shorten at this point in the 2019 campaign had virtually shut up shop whereas Morrison was going from electorate to electorate even on the election day of that Saturday.
Hardly betrays weakness in the Labor position, Taylormade, nice try though!
UpNorth: Beer fridge filled, beer belly primed for a big one mate! Wishing you the same in Thailand.
中华人民共和国
Keen as Mustard cobber!!
”
Rossmoresays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:32 am
Good summary from Kevin Bonham on the latest polling.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1526917332424986624?s=21&t=6XyLn65IcbqvP3_X41Q7Cg
”
KB prediction after Essential poll is 77 to ALP.
Rossmoresays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:32 am
Good summary from Kevin Bonham on the latest polling.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1526917332424986624?s=21&t=6XyLn65IcbqvP3_X41Q7Cg
____
+1. A few nervous nellies around PB would benefit from reading KB’s summary of current polling.
Hold the line!
Nice, Lars. An early wry smile for the day.