The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
I’m 40 but definitely 70 at heart most days 😛
ltep @ #140 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 8:29 am
ltep says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 8:38 am
What happened to the Indue scare campaign? Focus groups mustn’t have been too hot on it.
——————————–
The lib/nats arent abolishing it , and Labor is going to abolish it , is all what needed
I agree with the sentiments about the Cons paring it down to its all about Morrison, to keep some feel good about themselves. It’s not. It’s the whole bloody stinking lot of all of them. Libs and Nats. Name me one decent representative or one decent thing they’ve done. Cheats, liars, self aggrandising Murdoch sycophants the lot. Pathetic.
End of Rant. Beautiful morning, just stunning. The garden and bush are my saviours. And the dogs. And of course, him.
MONKEYPOX!!!!!!!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/monkeypox-alert-spain-men-show-symptoms
Australian dream was an 80s comedy starring Graham Blundell as an a former butcher of the year winner and aspiring Qld national party politician. It’s not a great movie but he keeps talking about his pork sword . Reminds me of a pretty rotten time to live in Brisbane with Joh and his police force breathing down your neck.
Morrison thought it was Bambi.
Thanks BK. More than 90 mins there I reckon.
The loose unit – 755am
Stuart Robert just referred to tackle-gate as an “error from both of them”
It’s almost like blaming welfare recipients for Robodebt. Who would do that?
Where is the much hyped Albo dirt file that was apparently going to be dropped early this week?
Or is Shari Markson still working on it?
If Albo does win, he can thank largely the women of Australia, harking back to Paul Keating’s victory speech of 1993, the gender gap this time seems to be enormous.
Blokes over 40 seem to love Morrison – well this 53 year old beer drinking bloke can’t stand Smirko and voted Labor last week, I’m the exception to the rule I guess, or one of them.
Proud to be a member of the Poll Bludger Labor blokes pissup club, eh Upnorth!
The ScoMo tackle didn’t take Albo’s NPC address off the front page, the newspapers were never reporting it anyway.
The Courier Fail putting HOSPITAL EMERGENCY right above the ScoMo photo is such a brilliant fuckup by them. Thanks guys!
The Terrorgraph small target strategy joke is legit funny.
As usual the Herald Sun can’t even manage a good pun anymore. It is truly the failed state of Murdochistan.
Canada reports 13 new suspected cases of monkeypox. Spain reports 7 new cases and Portugal reports 9 new cases of monkeypox.
meher baba @ #100 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:48 am
Have a look at “Gettin’ Square”: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0341376/
Good point BW, More children would be squashed under a labor govt
Thanks for the Dawn Patrol BK!
2 days to go and the best either Paul Kelly or the Odious Leak can muster is how dare Albo plan to go to Japan if he wins, I’m pretty sure that “should Albo go to Japan” is not a major kitchen table discussion topic.
ABC Newsradio going on about undecided voters still – I am pretty sure most people have decided.
Tech question: How do I update my Avatar photo?
I don’t want a photo of me, and I’ve uploaded a photo on my PressPatron account, but it’s still showing the old photo?
UK Cartoons:
LongMemory82 @ #164 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 8:53 am
I would like to know to – is there a guide anywhere?
Bronnie Taylor (yes, sister of) is an ex-palliative care nurse (if you can be ex). That history, and the weight of the name, has been a good influence I think. It’s interesting that Nats seem to understand these things. Animals, suffering, inevitability, life, death. The original NSW VAD bill (defeated by one vote back then) was a child of Trevor Khan, National, lovely bloke.
Why would Albanese think that Australia’s border is closed, another gaff surely, well for Australia’s sake I hope it was and that he actually does not believe the border is still closed. This bloke is starting to scare me, hopefully he is worrying others enough as well.
There is some major bludging here. Just took me nearly 3 hours to catch up on last night!
Australian Movies: my fave 2 are Sweet Country and High Ground. Should be mandatory viewing.
Here’s hoping Ispos plays nice. It’s good to be half ltep’s age.
Hey bludgers. I dunno about you, but I feel like that the largest swings (8-10%) will come from QLD and WA, with moderate swings (5-7%) coming from SA and NSW, and small swings (2-4%) from VIC and TAS.
Thanks BK. More than 90 mins there I reckon.
__________
About 110, Itza.
The darkness is always scared of the light.
Steelydan
Yeah Albo is terrifying. Didn’t you know he tackled an 8 year old to the ground!
Keep going C@t.
You are representative of the backbone of the ALP.
Like the people I was HTV yesterday….lady who recently lost her father, the bloke in the wheelchair who was volunteering not so much because of ALP but because our local MP had helped him so much, the Coles worker trying to get better wages and conditions plus all of the others who believe.
Compared to the other parties? Most of their workers weren’t volunteers but paid.
Says it all
The loose unit
Cheers!
Steelydan says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 8:55 am
Why would Albanese think that Australia’s border is closed,
——————————
Australians are still stranded overseas, due to Morrison’s broken promise
Zoe Daniel
@zdaniel
· 15h
In a new low, ‘people’ on social media are spreading the lie that it’s only necessary to mark me number 1 for the vote to be valid. This is orchestrated DISINFORMATION designed to cause informal voting. Tell your young people, tell everyone. NUMBER EVERY BOX.
Australia borders are not fully open to every Country
Albanese is correct in saying Australia’s borders are still close
Holdenhillbilly @ #176 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:00 am
Just don’t number every box 1
Holdenhillbilly @ #178 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:00 am
I do wonder if changing from 3 to 2 weeks for early polling and also not having as many aec staff/polling places was an lnp tactic to try and dissuade people to vote?
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
Important message on voting in the Reps: don’t mix up the Senate and House of Reps voting instructions. If your Reps seat has more than 7 candidates, and you vote 1-6 in the Reps (the small green ballot paper) and stop, then your vote is informal.
Steelydan @ #166 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 8:55 am
Don’t be stupid.
Rocket Rocket says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:52 pm
beguiledagain
Fascinating story – I had wondered about Canada Bay but never looked into it.
How was Trudeau? Was he interested in his Pacific ‘neighbours’ on the tour?
——————————————————————–
PET was an unlikely politician. A playboy in his youth, riding around Montreal on his motor-bike wearing a military helmet and railing against conscription during World War II. Then an academic and left-wing federalist who angered the separatists in Quebec.
I recommend the excellent Wikipedia profile. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Trudeau
Trudeau “pere” was an intellectual, a law professor who stumbled into politics in his middle ’40’s. He struck a chord with the progressive Canadian electorate in 1968 when he succeeded another unlikely politician Liberal Prime Minister Lester Pearson, a former diplomat. I covered his election campaign which became rock-star “Trudeaumania” across Canada, the first of his four electoral victories.
On that Pacific tour in 1970 he was 50 and still a bachelor, attracting significant media coverage. The Sydney tabloids Sun and Mirror had him on their front pages for days, with speculation about his romantic involvement with actresses Barbara Streisand and Margot Kidder and other women, including his future wife Margaret Sinclair. This was surprising because Margaret had not even been mentioned in Canada as a potential “first lady.” His appeal to women was also surprising because he didn’t have the matinee idol looks of his son Justin, “Trudeau fils.” He looked more like an ascetic monk.
He was very interested in the Pacific and Asian nations because he had visited most of them as a backpacker in the 1940’s and ’50’s. In New Zealand, for example, he delighted in telling the straight-laced Tory Prime Minister (Holyoake?) that he had been arrested and jailed on his previous visit to that country.
We arrived in Australia in the middle of a political crisis. He was supposed to spend the weekend on the barrier reef with Prime Minister Gorton and Andrew Peacock. But they had to stay in Canberra to deal with a Labor no-confidence motion. Trudeau ended up on a boat with their wives.
The Scomo tackle is his Latho moment even though the mainstream media will down play it.
The loose unit @ #181 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:03 am
They’d make it non-compulsory if they could.
I still can not understand why the Lib/nats and their corrupt propaganda media hacks are so worried about who will be the acting Prime Minister , when Albanese is over seas
If the federal election was 50/50
I just realized, the moron crash tackled a kid playing soccer, a non contact sport.
If it had been rugby, or any physical contact game, it could (if you were an idiot), at least be understood, but tackling like that in soccer is just out and out assault.
No kid consents to that, there is no voluntary assumption of this risk, and no soccer kid would be prepared for it!
The change to the early voting period was agreed to by both parties.
See this speech from Shadow Special Minister of State, Don Farrell, and I quote:
Labor always considers proposals for electoral reform thoughtfully because any changes directly affect our democracy. We have done that with these bills and believe that the amendments will strengthen our electoral system.
…
The other big change this bill makes is to limit the prepoll period to 12 days. The 2019 prepoll ran for nearly three weeks, increasing costs and staffing challenges for the AEC. This also has an impact on parties and candidates, and, it must be said, a significant impact on smaller parties and independents. While it provides flexibility for voters, it means that they’re going to the polls before they’re armed with all of the policy information needed to make an informed choice. More and more people are voting by prepoll at each election, but the majority do so in the week before polling day. In fact, in 2019, 50 per cent of prepoll votes were cast in the last five days, so this change will not affect the majority of prepoll voters.
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F1b11dbef-9ff2-4537-83cb-bd5f6b79020f%2F0019%22
Greg Rudd @ #185 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 9:05 am
Men over 40 are laughing about it, women/men under 40 aren’t so much.
You missed this one BK.
It confirms what i’ve been commenting on for a while. Don’t underestimate the level of anger at the Libs here in Victoria.
From brand new seats to Liberal crown jewels under threat, voter volatility may yield surprises in Victoria this federal election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-19/factors-shaping-federal-election-in-victoria/101077438
Would a hung parliament be a bad thing? Albo says “no”! …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-19/election-hung-parliament-explainer/101033200
Democracy, eh? What a concept!
How seriously idiotic do you have to be.
Morrison did a welding stunt by removing his safety glasses.
He got in the middle of kids playing basketball and the ball hit him square in the nose and knocked off his glasses.
Now falling right on top of a kid on a sports oval.
He reminds me of the character frank Spence, from some mothers do ave ‘em.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Election betting:
Things hotting up – and the flow still solidly to the Coalition:
Labor $1.57
Coalition $2.76
In % probability terms:
Labor 63%
Coalition 37%
$6.23 million in matched bets
Men over 40 aren’t all laughing about it. Scomo could have seriously injured this child.
Because we have two daughters who are voting at a federal election for the first time, we will have a team meeting to make sure that we vote formally before I tell them how to vote.
beguiledagain
Thanks for those reminiscences. I have been fascinated how Canada in the 20th Century had ‘left wing’ governments about two thirds of the time, and ‘right wing’ ones for one third, while Australia was the opposite.
Trudeau ended up on a boat with their wives.
He must have hated that!
“They’d make in non-compulsory if they could.”
If they could they’d require you own an investment property to be eligible.
They don’t believe in democracy.