The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
Puffytmd
You may enjoy this 12 minute video from the “Crash Course” mob.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PLBmUVYYeg
Mark the Ballot’s updated modelling
– mode ALP 2pp – 51.6
– mode ALP seats – 80
– mode LNP seats 64
– mode other seats 7
Overall probability estimates:
“Labor has a 73.2 per cent probability of forming majority government. The Coalition has a 7.5% probability. There is a 19.2 per cent chance of a hung parliament.”
https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2022/05/modelling-2020-election-part-ii.html?m=1
This compares to:
AEF :74% ALP majority; LNP majority 5%; hung parliament 21%
Buckley’s and None: 58.5% ALP majority; LNP majority 12.8% ;hung parliament 28.6%
PuffyTMD 12.01
reference for Australia increase in corruptopm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/25/australia-records-its-worst-ever-score-on-anti-corruption-index-after-decline-to-match-hungarys
Please ignore typos. I ran out of edit time to fix them all.
PB GUESSING GAME, May-18 12:39
TIME THAT THE WINNER IS DECLARED by A.Green
19:20 Scott, May-16 17:53
19:30 Tazza, May-16 22:37
19:45 Sceptic, May-17 17:10
20:00 max, May-16 14:05
20:15 d-money, May-15 18:57
20:20 Tom, May-16 18:23
20:20 Douglas and Milko, May-17 15:46
20:25 Rossmore , May-17 10:23
20:30 Puffytmd, May-16 21:30
20:35 GlenO, May-15 22:29
20:37 Hugoaugogo, Jan-00 00:00
20:42 Balding middle aged white man, May-18 21:47
20:45 Mr. Curlew, May-15 22:10
21:00 Historyintime, May-15 22:29
21:00 Rocket Rocket, Jan-00 00:00
21:00 mj, May-17 00:10
21:00 yabba, May-17 12:08
21:15 frednk, May-16 18:18
21:15 Boinzo, May-17 11:35
21:30 sonar, May-15 18:31
21:30 Luke, May-16 19:19
21:30 The loose unit, May-16 17:12
21:30 JM from QLD, May-17 11:04
21:30 Late Riser, May-18 12:39
21:45 King OMalley, May-15 22:05
21:46 Dandy Murray-Honeydew, May-17 09:54
21:55 Edward Boyce, May-15 15:01
22:10 Sandman, May-16 20:15
22:15 BeaglieBoy, May-16 14:13
22:15 Grant_ExLibris, May-17 12:53
22:25 Outsider, May-16 17:26
22:45 Ophuph Hucksake, May-16 18:30
22:45 SA Bludger, May-18 20:24
23:00 It’s Time, May-17 10:20
Monday, 2PM JayC, May-16 20:29
No predictions this time. Steve777 , May-16 21:08
none Jan, May-17 10:25
Nope Geetroit, May-16 17:45
WeWantPaul @ #447 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:10 am
Sorry, was I meant to give your ill thought out brainfart credibility?
BK time declared 2035 EST
My guess is no firm result on the night.. Hopefully Im wrong.
Unemployment falling to 3.9% is a big win for the Liberal Government just a few days out from the federal election and with so many undecided voters still out there. This 3.9% unemployment rate will flip those undecided voters to voting Liberal and the government will be re-elected, this is the simple reality.
two days to go – I feel like a cat on a hot tin roof, not sure which way to jump but just want to be confident.
The MSM has been rabid in its pursuit of Anthony Albanese. The righteous pursuit of gotchas moments and reporting that the Opposition Leader has run away from answering / and providing responses to their incessant questions (often the same one) has been the height of hypocrisy.
Morrison gaslight, ignores, lectures answers questions with a different answer and is never called out.
I was reasonably confident that Labor would win the last election. Calling for changes in areas such as franking credits was what I would expect of a Labor opposition.
Hoping for a Labor majority but not at all confident.
I don’t think Antony Green is going to call the election Saturday night.
Scott from Adelaide
The Prime Minister says his clash with an under 8’s soccer player in Tasmania yesterday is entirely the boy’s fault and has called for him to apologise.
“He was clearly offside – he lacks even the most basic skills. He needs to ask himself why, with such little experience, he was on the pitch in the first place. It’s not my job to be aware of every single seven-year-old on a soccer field during an important photo opportunity,” he said.
Morrison said the boy should count himself lucky that it wasn’t worse. “Not far from here, right now, such children are being met with bullets”.
Asked whether he should have done more to avoid the boy, Mr Morrison said he didn’t accept the premise of the question. “I’m sorry, but it’s not up to me to provide an explanation for the collision – you’ll have to ask him that. That’s a matter for the boy and the Devonport City Soccer Club. But I will say that he could’ve caused me a serious injury three days out from an election. Not to mention reputational damage. Peter Dutton has suggested I sue the boy for defamation and I am currently considering my legal options”.
Meanwhile, in a front-page expose The Australian newspaper today revealed that the boy has a history of skipping school and stealing lunches.
The Shovel.
A man who has amassed $3,450 in super over his ten years working in the hospitality industry has welcomed the government’s new super home-buying scheme, saying he’ll finally be able to afford to put a deposit on a second-hand car to live in.
Jake McGuinness, 31, said he’d always dreamed of unlocking his four-figure superannuation nest-egg so he could get a foothold in the secondhand car market.
“I remember getting paid super for a couple of months in 2016, and then again briefly for a job I did in 2019. So I’m sitting on a goldmine really,” he said.
“With this new 40% rule, I’ll be able to unlock just under $1400 – so I’ve got my eye on a sweet one-bedroom 2002 Ford Falcon without an engine”.
The Shovel.
Bree @ #455 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:22 am
So good when you get a fall in the rate largely because people gave up looking.
Late Riser
Thanks for that.
I find this interesting. In his last voyage, Captain James Cook displayed a completely different personality than on his other long voyages. He went from a ship’s Captain very concerned with his crew’s welfare, very even-tempered, considered, and thoughtful to being autocratic, having temper tantrums, and with flawed judgment.
Those traits may have led to his death at the hands of Islanders who previously like him. He made the fateful decision to return to the island after his farewell ceremony to argue about a missing rowboat and was killed. If he sailed away he would not have died there instead of in his home in England.
There is speculation he picked up a tropical illness or a parasite that affected his brain during his earlier voyages.
Late Riser, can I have 21:10 for AG’s declaration.
“Sorry, was I meant to give your ill thought out brainfart credibility?”
Nah I don’t need validation from someone who doesn’t understand how metaphor works and just spews abuse when confronted with it. Do better.
PuffyTMD
He knew that the North West Passage was just not possible. He was heading home to report failure.
PuffyTMD says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 12:25 pm
Late Riser
Thanks for that.
I find this interesting. In his last voyage, Captain James Cook displayed a completely different personality than on his other long voyages. He went from a ship’s Captain very concerned with his crew’s welfare, very even-tempered, considered, and thoughtful to being autocratic, having temper tantrums, and with flawed judgment.
Those traits may have led to his death at the hands of Islanders who previously like him. He made the fateful decision to return to the island after his farewell ceremony to argue about a missing rowboat and was killed. If he sailed away he would not have died there instead of in his home in England.
There is speculation he picked up a tropical illness or a parasite that affected his brain during his earlier voyages.
中华人民共和国
Had SfM been to Hawaii before his last trip?
22.15 AG failing to hide a grin
WeWantPaul @ #463 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:26 am
Oh, the poor victim.
Late Riser: Put me down for 8:30 pm.
Like c@t, I will be spending most of election day handing out Labor HTVs: in my case, at a small rural booth in the marginal Labor electorate of Lyons. Labor seems to be a bit down on volunteers in southern Tassie and my daughter, who is a highly active Young Labor person down here, has roped me in. Thankfully the forecast isn’t for rain, but it will be cold in the little valley where the polling booth is situated.
Because I’ll be out of Franklin, where I live, I went and voted today. One thing I noticed, and which was confirmed for me by the people handing them out, is that most voters these days don’t seem to want HTVs. With no requirement to number all the boxes in the Senate, and with the party of each candidate clearly marked, more and more people feel they can manage it themselves.
Of course, Tasmanians are used to not getting HTVs at state elections (which makes voting in them a rather strange experience for those of us who don’t originally come from Tassie). So perhaps that affects people’s behaviour down here.
Anyway, good luck to anyone else engaged in the activity on Saturday. If you are experiencing balmy weather, spare me a thought in my winter woollies
Late Riser
I’m gong to do a full prediction but expect Antony Green to call it by 7.36pm. All eastern states close at the sametime so by 7.30 we will know if the Liberal vote is collapsing and all the potential Liberal pick ups are in eastern states and by then we will know how the Teals are fairing.
Coronavirus: North Korea reports nearly 2 million suspected Covid-19 infections with 740,000 in quarantine.
North Korea on Thursday reported 262,270 more cases of people with suspected symptoms of Covid-19 as its pandemic caseload neared 2 million – a week after the country acknowledged the outbreak and scrambled to slow the rate of infections despite a lack of healthcare resources.
The country is also trying to prevent its fragile economy from deteriorating, but the outbreak could be worse than officially reported because of scarce resources for virus testing and the possibility that North Korea could be deliberately under-reporting deaths to soften the political impact on authoritarian leader Kim Jong-un.
North Korea’s antivirus headquarters reported a single death in the 24 hours to 6pm on Wednesday to bring its death toll to 63, which experts have said is abnormally small compared to the suspected number of infections.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3178285/coronavirus-north-korea-reports-nearly-2-million-suspected?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage
“Oh, the poor victim.”
Lol – spew abuse all you want I’m neither offended nor a victim, my only sadness is I hoped you’d thought your post out well enough to defend the great ‘actions’ of Scotty valiant and victorious vanquisher of covid. But I see now why that was overly optimistic.
AB time of election call: 9:04 pm
Late Riser, not that i have any idea but for the sake of putting in a bet and trying to take unoccupied territory with a realistic win chance, can i have 22:30 victory declaration please?
Hail mary that its going to need calling of the two WA seats to do it
Anything beforehand will be very good news for ALP margin indeed
LeftRightOut -can I have 2315 on 21 May for the AG declaration
Is our own WB going to make a call ar the appropriate time?
I’d value that more than AG.
Further to Puffytmd’s post.Australia’s 2012 World Ranking 7th, now 18th. How good were Scotty’s colored spreadsheets ? Australia now scores 12 points less that when Labor lost power. Bullshit Man managed to lose 4 of those points in just 1 year, 2020->21. Another 18 months and we’ll match the UAE.
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2012
Scott @ #458 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:23 pm
Just checking that you’re the same Scott and you’d like your guess updated. 🙂
So, as an extra bit of fun, which seats do people think will have the smallest margin?
My pick is Forde – I think Labor will grab it, but by a very slender margin, perhaps 0.5%.
Getting a bit rowdy and skittling an 8 year old is exactly the kind of a behaviour a genuine “loose unit” would exhibit, just saying.
No, I am a different Scott, hence the sign off Scott from Adelaide to differrentiate.
Scott from Adelaide
WeWantPaul @ #472 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:32 am
How did my post defend Morrison?
Major comprehension fail.
It highlighted your riddikulus assertion.
Scott @ #460 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:23 pm
Ditto.
In St. Antony we trust.
7.34pm Saturday night
The closest seat I predict will be……Bass by 237 votes…..Although Labor will win enough higher up the pendulum to win Govt, Bass is always close
To be honest I just thought WWP was expanding on BITB’s post a little. Not sure where the angst has come from.
Late Riser @ #457 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:17 pm
No predictions from me.
When did “loose cannon” become “loose unit”?
I expect that Labor will have just a faint glimmer of hope at midnight of forming minority government but it will be snuffed out in the coming days after postal votes are counted. The demoralisation will do Labor supporters in SLOWLY.
Scott @ #481 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:39 pm
🙂
Prediction: AG will call the election at 8:41 eastern standard time.
Freya Stark @ #490 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:51 pm
I assume you commit to coming here, irrespective of the result, to either gloat about being right or admit to how incredibly wrong you were?
Or do you only commit to coming in here if you’re right?
“To be honest I just thought WWP was expanding on BITB’s post a little. Not sure where the angst has come from.”
I thought it was just a bit of fun with a heavy dose of hyperbowling, but clearly I was wrong and missed the mark. I will defer my standup debut. Frenchy I clearly am not.
Time AG will call the election;
9:00 Adelaide time for me!
He’ll call it once Perth has closed and counted a couple of booths.
Late Riser @ #452 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 12:17 pm
Please put me down for May 22 or later, thanks, Late Riser.
I will be IF that is the case. The schadenfreude will be irresistible.