The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
Holmes à Court should have taken Tony Windsors advice before the final week to remain focused on the local constituents rather than getting sucked into Lib rubbish games.
@C@tmomma
Jason Clare’s Liberal opponent is male, Oz Guney who also ran in 2019, so I am not sure what A Current Affair are doing.
Scott from Adelaide
Rachel Withers not happy with the pack of what can loosely be described as journalists travelling with Albanese:
Rachel Withers
@rachelrwithers
Press pack absolutely losing their minds over Albanese “ditching them” today (leaving them with his shadow treasurer), declaring it “not OK”.
Why is it not OK? Do they have a question or twelve they need to ask him about dot points or costings due for release on another day?
It’s a shame for those journos who are there trying to ask real policy questions, but many of them (and the loudest ones) have turned the pressers into a waste of time, for him and for us.
Just come to my attention that this decision has been reversed. Thank GOD, now we can finally find out whether Albanese has memorised every single figure in the costings
First question: Are you saying making fun of your name is RACIST??
Second question: CoStiNgS
Third question: If you win how will you COPE with the pressure of government?
This is embarrassing. This is so fucking embarrassing.
Fourth question: You said the borders were closed they’re not closed!!!
Fifth question is a REAL QUESTION about the childcare policy (that has definitely been asked before). But bravo
Sixth question is a good one on the Uluru Statement and Voice referendum, with a heavy implication that it probably won’t pass and is therefore not worth doing
Seventh question a genuinely good one about Labor’s lacklustre climate target
If yOu WoNT TeLL uS NoW WhEtHeR LaBoRs DeFeCiTS wilL bE HiGhEr RIGHT NOW hoW CaN AuStRaLIiAnS TRUST YOU
What a relief we were able to get that one in
Oh, an extended whinge about being made to go and hear about/ask questions about the costings that they are apparently so desperate to hear about/ask questions about!
“You’re better than this Mr Albanese,” a reporter says.
Shame the same can’t be said of that reporter.
The whinge in full:
I don’t expect these peers I’m alienating to listen to me, but if you can’t listen to Laura and take a good hard look at yourself… https://twitter.com/latingle/status/1527087839170932736
One more thing: the fact that we can see a headline like this (dramatic, but accurate in sentiment) in what is meant to be a civilised democracy says so much.
Please stop “mauling” the Opposition leader.
monika – great first post, some really good points.
Scott @ #698 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:39 pm
I admit I only saw an ad for the story but it sure looked like a woman with a hijab on on the posters. Oh well, all will be clear later. 🙂
Jude: “John Howard says that he didn’t sense a lot of enthusiasm for Albanese, and compared it with his experience in ’07 when he knew it’d be a big fight with Kevin Rudd.”
Both in southern Tasmania where I live, and during my recent trip to Sydney, I didn’t sense much enthusiasm for the election altogether. People seem to be not at all enthused by Albo, but also very negative towards ScoMo. I guess the lingering question is whether enough of them will end up accepting ScoMo’s advice that you don’t have to like him, you just have to think he’ll do a better job.
As we all know, the opinion polls – at least until this week – have been indicating a substantial swing towards Labor. And there is no doubt that the opinion polls performed well in the recent South Australian elections, suggesting that perhaps the problems of 2019 have been resolved.
So there’s no logical reason to believe the result will be anything other than a Labor win or, at the very worst, a hung parliament in which Labor is in the best position to negotiate its way into forming government.
But the nagging doubts remain: not just for me, but my impression is that many posters on PB feel the same way. A lot of it is “the vibe”: there was a rush of excitement in 1972, 1983 and 2007 and even to some extent in 2019 that is not at all apparent this time round. But the advent of COVID has made many people more reticent and inward-looking, which means that it is harder than ever to get a sense of population-wide trends from public behaviour.
I look at the polling results, and I can’t help feeling that the Greens vote is overstated in most of them, and that concomitantly the votes for the UAP and PHON might be a bit understated. And I also think it is very difficult for the polling companies to be certain about the flow of UAP preferences.
And, as I have posted before, I have suspected for a long time that the pollsters struggle to provide an accurate reflection of the voting intentions of some of the most rapidly-growing migrant communities, which would make their findings slightly more suspect in NSW and Victoria than in other states and territories.
Anyway, we’ll soon find out whether the 2019 failures of the pollsters was a one-off problem that has now been fixed, or an endemic problem.
BTW, even if the Newspoll result tomorrow shows a significant tightening, so many people will have voted by that point that it probably won’t matter. I think the key question with the polls at the moment is not how they are trending at any one time, but the extent to which they are based on sound methodologies, and we can’t hope to know an answer to that question before Saturday night.
Someone tweeted tonight’s Ipsos was “worrying for Labor” but has since been removed.
Don’t know how they’d know yet.
DPRee @ #700 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:41 pm
I can’t find it!
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:41 pm
Scott @ #698 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:39 pm
@C@tmomma
“Jason Clare’s Liberal opponent is male, Oz Guney who also ran in 2019, so I am not sure what A Current Affair are doing.
Scott from Adelaide
I admit I only saw an ad for the story but it sure looked like a woman with a hijab on on the posters. Oh well, all will be clear later. ”
Man in a hijab? (how would you know?). Sexual identity can be an issue in any society.
P1:
“ Giving your first preferences to pro-action independents and minor parties is the best way to ensure the next government takes action.”
If your working premise is that having a cross bench stacked with pro-action on climate change indies and minors is the best way to ensure that the next government takes action, doesnt the composition of that next government count for something?
You claim to know how preferential voting works P1, and you are in a genuine knife edge marginal.
So, who are you going to give your preference to? Phillip s over Constance, or vice versa?
THAT choice may actually matter a lot more to whether any action is taken by the next government than your mantra. Especially as you have conceded that there isn’t a viable TEAL running in Gilmore.
Do you want a continuation of a marketing scam of a governemnt that might promise stuff (like net zero 2050, but wont take action to mandate a lift past 26-28% by 2030), OR
A labor government, who – despite your downplaying of their policy, actually does have policy to mandate action that will result in (at least) a 43% reduction by 2030?
So, who is going to be, P1?
Phillips before Constance, or vice versa. It’s actually a big choice for you, and one of consequence.
It is also a choice that you can tell us all about, so as to rehabilitate any creditability that you may have on this blog, IMO.
Who is going to be?
Firefox @ #668 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:17 pm
You believe incorrectly. I’m talking about a leaflet, authorised by the Greens (in very hard-to-read colour and font), that has no Greens branding and attacks Labor and the Liberals as being equally bad – in particular, on the issue of coal and gas. The big text on the front says “4 reasons why Labor and the Liberals have sold out to coal and gas corporations” with “(and fuelled the climate crisis)” in smaller text after it.
Labor tried to put in place a carbon tax, and the Greens voted it down (yes, yes, for being not good enough – but we’d be in a better place now if it were in place than we are at the moment). And Labor is the one that put a price on carbon in 2010 (and no, the Greens didn’t bargain to get that – what was in the bargain is well-established; the Greens just gave Gillard extra cover in establishing it, she promised to put a price on carbon prior to the election). And since then, the most you can claim, realistically, is that Fitzgibbon was an idiot and Labor supported a couple of gas projects. But apparently, they’re put up front and centre on the “sold out to coal and gas corporations” measure.
And you can tell that they’re running it as a “Labor is as bad as the Liberals”, because of how it’s presented. And it’s very selective about information. For example, it claims “They plan to open 114 new coal and gas mines”… and their evidence is an article called “Labor backs coal beyond 2050”, based on something Madeleine King said… except it’s an oversimplification.
What she actually said was “Different countries will have different paths to net zero emissions. Some will require coal as part of their energy mix for a longer period than others.” – true. She also said “Many will continue to need Australian coal and iron ore for steel-making – which in turn will be used to build wind turbines that generate clean energy.” – also true.
As for the 114 new coal and gas mines, that’s what’s on the Liberal government’s register. Labor hasn’t committed to them. Labor tends to take a cautious angle, and has committed to allowing those that satisfy environmental laws to go ahead… which is something that the Liberals have routinely ignored. And Labor’s attitude more generally has been “permit under conditions” for a lot of related things – like supporting a gas-fired power station, as long as it transitions to green hydrogen sooner than planned.
The fact of the matter is, the Greens have been running actively anti-Labor advertising that, even at the most generous interpretation, is highly misleading. And yet you complain about a single tweet about Labor wanting to convince people to vote Labor, not because Greens are evil and must be stopped, but because Labor are the party that would form government in the Coalition’s place.
The Age 19/05
Victoria’s triple-zero dispatch system has been “continually and systematically” underperforming, a review has found.
_____________________
no shit,Sherlock.
Jaeger:
You have the wrong contest, that’s from the election night drinking game.
C@t,
Monika’s cogent first post is @2:53. Of course, your posts are invariably cogent!
Tony Burke’s opponent in Watson, Sazeda Akter is female and wears a head covering.
Scott from Adelaide
So… Briefly has voted the Labor ticket, even though he has an deranged, swivel-eyed hatred of the #2 party on it and campaigns viciously hard against them (on here, and probably IRL). Whatever the party says to do, he will do.
That’s not a political party. That’s a cult.
“Who is going to be?”
***
Since you’re asking, AE…
Who goes higher for you? Greens or Libs/Nats?
Profhiggins @ #693 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:48 pm
I can’t see it either.
Freya….Athiest here. Wont be casting wishs into the ether
No, it’s a way of ensuring you vote is valid.
Looking at the QLD Senate ticket for OneNation
1. Pauline Hanson
2. Raj Guruswamy
3. George Christensen
Could the Member for Manila do a Stephen Bradbury?
Monika’s post is on page 14 in my Chrome browser at 2:53 pm today. I just checked and it is still there now.
Prof:….I saw it. A good write up about the value of betting odds
“ Since you’re asking, AE…
Who goes higher for you? Greens or Libs/Nats?”
The splitters before the filth, every time.
Very hard to decide whether to go up or down with a donkey vote, sprocket.
Though I suppose you get a donkey either way.
Profhigginssays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:53 pm
Monika’s post is on page 14 in my Chrome browser at 2:53 pm today. I just checked it is still there now.
+1 – same for me
Commentariat Uprisingsays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 2:57 pm
So anyone have any thoughts on this?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/19/voting-covid-19-phone-cut-off/
“A total of 193,882 Australians reported testing positive for COVID between Sunday and Wednesday. These people are expected to self-isolate past election day but are ineligible for phone voting. Instead they must rely on their mail ballots arriving in time or miss out on voting. Some have been told by the AEC that their ballot papers won’t be delivered until after the election.”
I am in this group – I tested positive on Tuesday (applied for a postal vote on Tuesday) for COVID and have been in isolation since.
Will be extremely pissed if I can not vote, even if I am not in a marginal seat (Clark – TAS) I should be able to vote.
Commentariat Uprising @ #658 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 2:57 pm
I can think of several elements in play.
* the strength of the affected voter’s desire to vote
* the combined importance of their votes to the outcome, per electorate
* the role of the AEC
* the role of the postal service
* the options available to the affected voters
* the health risks of the different options
* the general perception among the community of fairness and duty
I can’t think of a good answer. I expect everyone will muddle through as best they can and authorities will deal with anything major after the fact.
Player One says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:29 pm
Bloody Climate Scientists! Sticking their oar in again …
https://theconversation.com/a-new-climate-politics-the-47th-parliament-must-be-a-contest-of-ideas-for-a-hotter-low-carbon-australia-182770
“A Labor government would clearly plan to do more than a returned Coalition government. Either is likely to do more if governing in a parliamentary minority and supported by pro-climate independents.”
Giving your first preferences to pro-action independents and minor parties is the best way to ensure the next government takes action.
___________________________________________________________
And preferencing Labor above the Coalition is the best way to ensure we have a government that is more likely to take action.
Bellwether @ #700 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:37 pm
Maybe Russell Broadbent Monash can slip her some of his left over worm suppositories,he swears by them.
Scout, rather than reading Crikey and the other hysterical media outlets – try reading this..
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/covid19-safety-measures.htm
It explains quite simply how you can vote after testing positive for Covid
Andrew_Earlwood @ #710 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:45 pm
I am sure the rest of PB is as bored with your tedious obsession with me as I am.
BeaglieBoy, DPRee,
Good on ya.
We should encourage first posters whose points are as soundly reasoned as Monika’s are.
Can a postal vote be delivered to the polling booth by hand by some 3rd party on polling day?
That might save a few votes.
Have the AEC been given extra money to fund the extra work they have to do to provide voting services to those who have COVID?
Scott from Adelaide
sprocket_says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:52 pm
“Looking at the QLD Senate ticket for OneNation
1. Pauline Hanson
2. Raj Guruswamy
3. George Christensen
Could the Member for Manila do a Stephen Bradbury?”
Life could not be that cruel and malicious. It’s bad enough that the Covid queen might well be re-elected.
For those in an alternative universe :
Psychic predicts election chaos this weekend
This weekend’s election will be fraught with chaos, according to a popular Australian psychic, who predicts problems at the ballot box will end in a hung parliament.
Intuitive astrologer Rose Smith told FEMAIL she has had three intense psychic visions in recent weeks which show current Prime Minister Scott Morrison ‘waving goodbye’.
In the ‘flashes’ Mr Morrison reaches for the back door, opens it, and slips through without delay.
She sees a hung parliament and tough negotiations between Anthony Albanese’s government, the Greens who ‘have a record win’ and Independents.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/smart-living/psychic-predicts-election-chaos-this-weekend/ar-AAXr7Ve
Bird of paradox says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:49 pm
So… Briefly has voted the Labor ticket, even though he has an deranged, swivel-eyed hatred of the #2 party on it and campaigns viciously hard against them (on here, and probably IRL). Whatever the party says to do, he will do.
That’s not a political party. That’s a cult.
Life is beset by small and mostly irrelevant ironies, b-o-p. I’m a modest bludger, all told and in the unimportant things, an incurious one too. The pop-ups and the gig-candidates, of whom there are well over a dozen in WA, do not interest me. Likewise, the Apostates do not deserve Labor’s prefs but have them nonetheless. We will live to regret it, I’m sure.
Very notably, Labor do not ask anything from the Apostates in return for their Senate favours. Nor will we. The one thing to the credit of the Apostates is their promise to not block supply. For this they rank ahead of all others.
Mind you, I did the telephone voting once helping my nearly blind mother. They insisted on reading out the whole ballot paper – took half an hour. And this is after she clearly said she wanted to follow the Liberal HTV….
My wife…who is in iso with me is getting a call from the AEC to vote at 6pm Friday…( I voted before I got the Lurgi)
Player One says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:59 pm
Andrew_Earlwood @ #710 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:45 pm
So, who is going to be, P1?
I am sure the rest of PB is as bored with your tedious obsession with me as I am.
________________
I think that’s right with the exception of boerwar who is excited by it.
phoenixRED says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:01 pm
“For those in an alternative universe :
Psychic predicts election chaos this weekend
This weekend’s election will be fraught with chaos, according to a popular Australian psychic, who predicts problems at the ballot box will end in a hung parliament.
Intuitive astrologer Rose Smith told FEMAIL she has had three intense psychic visions in recent weeks which show current Prime Minister Scott Morrison ‘waving goodbye’.
In the ‘flashes’ Mr Morrison reaches for the back door, opens it, and slips through without delay.”
I’ll have what she’s having.
Cheers Sprocket – i may be over reating, not intentional and I am pleased we have the AEC. I definitely have foggy head this week.
I was just browsing through Sportsbet odds for the election and noticed that for the seat of Warringah the odds for Katherine Deves have been wiped completely from the site, a big SUS sign next to her name – what is going on there?
PaulTu @ #733 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:03 pm
I mean, it doesn’t take much intuition to foresee Morrison going away…
PaulTu @ #736 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:00 pm
If she kicks the bucket before or after close of polls, how would her position be filled under current arrangements.Quick call A Green.
Labor insiders not seeing a shift to LNP in their key seats https://twitter.com/fbongiornoanu/status/1526845666349428737?s=21&t=EMZEMLvQ2Vlc4GU7PuOH7g
“I was just browsing through Sportsbet odds for the election and noticed that for the seat of Warringah the odds for Katherine Deves have been wiped completely from the site, a big SUS sign next to her name – what is going on there?”
I would assume someone trying to make a large bet
Evan @ #735 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:04 pm
If I understand correctly, that happens when a big bet comes in, and they can’t just use their automatic algorithms and accept the bet. I think it means they need someone to look over the situation and determine whether it’s a genuine bet, satisfies certain laws, and should be used to adjust the odds.
Give it 10 minutes, it’ll be back to normal.
“Intuitive astrologer”
How might that differ from just astrologer?