Federal election minus two days

Intelligence from Goldstein and Fowler, plus a detailed survey on the gender electoral gap and related political attitudes.

The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:

• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.

• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.

• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,043 comments on “Federal election minus two days”

Comments Page 16 of 21
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  1. So costings was a predictable fail.

    Not the numbers but Labor convincing people it could manage the money and not overspend. $7bn is probably closer to $30bn when you factor Labor has also promised to support a 25% wage increase for aged care workers and the other spending they won’t be able to resist.

    Effectively the Libs have won Week 1 and 6 and Labor Week 2-5

    There’s that inevitable car crash quality to Albo coming into Government especially from the turning of the economic tide which is apparent.

    The most interesting thing to me is whether Albo will embrace rapprochement with China and Xi. Interestingly Marcos is already talking friendlies with Xi – maybe we will follow the trend under Albo?

  3. “You believe incorrectly. I’m talking about a leaflet, authorised by the Greens (in very hard-to-read colour and font), that has no Greens branding and attacks Labor and the Liberals as being equally bad – in particular, on the issue of coal and gas. The big text on the front says “4 reasons why Labor and the Liberals have sold out to coal and gas corporations” with “(and fuelled the climate crisis)” in smaller text after it.”

    ***

    Well lest I be accused of spreading misleading info from the Greens, in the interests of fairness, allow me to share QLD Labor’s position on the matter – branding and all. The authorisation is down the bottom if you’re wondering…

  4. Grime @ #737 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:05 pm

    If she kicks the bucket before or after close of polls, how would her position be filled under current arrangements.Quick call A Green.

    I’m pretty sure that he’s addressed that question before, and basically, if it happens before the winners are declared, she’s removed from the ballot and everything gets recounted. If it happens after then, One Nation get to choose her replacement.

  5. sprocket_ @ #700 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:52 pm

    Looking at the QLD Senate ticket for OneNation

    1. Pauline Hanson
    2. Raj Guruswamy
    3. George Christensen

    Could the Member for Manila do a Stephen Bradbury?

    Doubt it – he doesn’t even want to. He’s only standing so he can get his $100k retirement bonus. Typical LNP theft of public money.

  6. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:59 pm
    Scout, rather than reading Crikey and the other hysterical media outlets – try reading this..

    https://www.aec.gov.au/election/covid19-safety-measures.htm

    It explains quite simply how you can vote after testing positive for Covid
    ———-
    I believe the issue is that eligibility for telephone voting requires a COVID diagnosis after Tuesday 17 May. People who were diagnosed between Sunday and Tuesday would still be required to isolate and not attend the polling booth in person but would not be eligible to vote by phone. Maybe the assumption was that people in that group would be able to organise a postal vote.

  11. sprocket_

    “It explains quite simply how you can vote after testing positive for Covid”

    I think the issue is that there’s an implied gap: “provide evidence that you have tested positive for COVID-19 after 6pm on Tuesday 17 May 2022. You will need evidence of your positive COVID-19 test”

    This seems to say that if you’re in isolation but not testing positive after the 17th, then you’re ineligible for phone voting.

  12. Evan @ #744 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:04 pm

    I was just browsing through Sportsbet odds for the election and noticed that for the seat of Warringah the odds for Katherine Deves have been wiped completely from the site, a big SUS sign next to her name – what is going on there?

    They’ve only just realised what most people had concluded ages ago – that Deves is truly sus.

  13. Lars – omg, that’s laughable! Don’t worry mate, at least it’s not $5.5b wasted on a subs contract, or $60 of job keeper going to businesses like Hardly Normal…

    A trillion dollars worth of debt; and Labor have an issue… lol.

    Melbs comedy festival is wanting a chat!

  14. Lars Von Trier @ #751 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:07 pm

    So costings was a predictable fail.

    Not the numbers but Labor convincing people it could manage the money and not overspend. $7bn is probably closer to $30bn when you factor Labor has also promised to support a 25% wage increase for aged care workers and the other spending they won’t be able to resist.

    Effectively the Libs have won Week 1 and 6 and Labor Week 2-5

    There’s that inevitable car crash quality to Albo coming into Government especially from the turning of the economic tide which is apparent.

    The most interesting thing to me is whether Albo will embrace rapprochement with China and Xi. Interestingly Marcos is already talking friendlies with Xi – maybe we will follow the trend under Albo?

    So, why didn’t you mention the Libs didn’t included the cost of a wage increase in their costings either …?

  15. A minority Labor government given a gee up by a Teal or two or something like that may sound good to some but it’s an open door for another Abbott style attacker which the liberal party will easily find. Couple that with deliberate Senate obstruction & a feral anti Labor press theme & this government won’t be around long. Hope for a big Labor win, despair if there isn’t one.

  16. I believe the issue is that eligibility for telephone voting requires a COVID diagnosis after Tuesday 17 May. People who were diagnosed between Sunday and Tuesday would still be required to isolate and not attend the polling booth in person but would not be eligible to vote by phone.
    ——————
    Actually the AEC rules seem to be about whether a person is testing positive from Tuesday on – not when they were first diagnosed. If so a person first diagnosed before Tuesday who was still required to isolate until Saturday would still be eligible for a telephone vote, provided they reported a positive test after Tuesday.

    The group potentially left out would be those who were diagnosed positive from Sunday but who did not report a positive test after Tuesday. You wonder how AEC could verify that though.

  17. GlenO @ #754 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:08 pm

    Grime @ #737 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:05 pm

    If she kicks the bucket before or after close of polls, how would her position be filled under current arrangements.Quick call A Green.

    I’m pretty sure that he’s addressed that question before, and basically, if it happens before the winners are declared, she’s removed from the ballot and everything gets recounted. If it happens after then, One Nation get to choose her replacement.

    So not beyond the impossible that they choose Mark Latham…Egad another Billy Hughes.

  19. Player One says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 3:59 pm
    Andrew_Earlwood @ #710 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 3:45 pm

    So, who is going to be, P1?

    I am sure the rest of PB is as bored with your tedious obsession with me as I am.
    _________________________________________________________
    Actually Player One, I’m a little bored with you. You have been continually asked whether, in light of your concerns about climate change, you prefer Labor to the Coalition, but you never give a straight answer. All you do is claim same-same and say we should vote for independents.
    At least the Greens partisans here state they prefer Labor to the Coalition. I suspect you are a Tory who cannot escape their roots and just makes excuses as to why you can’t vote Labor.

  22. Sad to hear about Pauline contracting COVID. Being 68 and unvaccinated definitely won’t help. Please all join me in praying for her recovery.??

    I recon it will be self induced suicide, I am an atheist also !.

  23. BSA Bob @ #765 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:16 pm

    A minority Labor government given a gee up by a Teal or two or something like that may sound good to some but it’s an open door for another Abbott style attacker which the liberal party will easily find. Couple that with deliberate Senate obstruction & a feral anti Labor press theme & this government won’t be around long. Hope for a big Labor win, despair if there isn’t one.

    The parliamentary fossil fuel cartel had the numbers to tear down the Gillard Govt.

    If enough Teal/Greens are elected, they won’t have the numbers this time around.

  24. well I did go out with the Mrs to do pre-poll this morning – saw the queue streaming way out the door and thought bugger it, I’ll take my chances on Saturday. I figure with all the small polling booths open on the day (as opposed to just the one pre-poll station for all of Belconnen), it’ll be less busy. With the added bonus of possibly getting a democracy sausage (provided they are halal).

  28. I’m pleased to see the Greens War running again.
    I agree with GlenO’s excellent points earlier concerning material in Griffith. I have *never* seen a Greens letterbox item that attacked only the LNP in my seat. Ever. But my place has been in a Greens target zone for council, the state and now feds for about 15 years.
    I reckon it’s worth recognising that it’s very different in different seats. The Greens run a very long game. Of picking only 1 or 2 targets and putting everything into them. Once it’s one, move to a new target.
    If you have say 100 vollies and $20k to spend in each seat and you know you have zero chance in 147 seats it probably makes sense to come up with a way to put almost all those resources into only 1-2 seats at a time. So you get 500 vollies and $100k (for arguments sake) in a seat like Griffith. That gives you way more chance of winning it. Especially if you’ve used the same approach to get a rep in council and/or state first in the same area. All good. But. What also happens is you are bringing in 400 non-local vollies who have zero attachment to the local community and just want to win. They tend to behave a bit like a gang. It’s extremely unpleasant. And because you have so many eggs in the one basket you can get a bit untethered from reality.
    I’m currently in St Kilda – and the Greens effort here is entirely different. I’ve seen only a few corflutes. But look out McNamara – The Greens Political Party is coming for you once they get Griffith and can free up the resources.

  29. Lars to match your silliness, the West newspaper has had a ‘Who Won the Day’ tally since Day 1 of the campaign….
    In the first week Albo was down 0-8 because the West said “Morrison did not have to do anything to win….”
    The score, with just two days to go is Albanese 16, Morrison 13 and Tie 10. This is one stupid contest that now even Morrison can win…..
    Even funnier, the West gave it to Morrison yesterday because………????..
    “We considered rewarding Albo for his Press Club performance (deep into Week 6 you will notice Lars) but out of fear of getting crash tackled we’ll give it to the PM for delivering a classic campaign moment and LET’S FACE IT, BECAUSE HE NEEDS THE POINTS ON THE BOARD” (my caps)..
    Back to the Liberal Party drawing board for that one Lars………………………

  30. max

    “The group potentially left out would be those who were diagnosed positive from Sunday but who did not report a positive test after Tuesday. You wonder how AEC could verify that though.”

    The site says: “if RAT – receipt number from health authority from registration of your positive RAT, and brand and serial number of RAT (if available)”

    It seems very odd they’re tying it to a positive test and not the recommended isolation period from first test. Worst of both worlds, some people who should vote won’t vote, and some people who should be isolating won’t be isolating.

  31. The Woden prepoll in Canberra at 11am had a very long queue and a forest of corflutes. I wasn’t intending to vote early as we are a few minutes walk from the local primary school. Our grandson attends there and the money raised by the P&C will be useful after two years of very little in-person fundraising.

  32. Sir Henry Parkes says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:17 pm
    Player One says:

    P1 is Labor-phobic. In Gilmore the candidates include a Green, a swag of True-Reactionaries, and Labor. They cannot practice what they preach in Gilmore unless they pref Labor, which they are loathe to do. So they play coy.

  33. Ipsos unbelievably high for Labor for a while. It should tighten. Also, watch out for any change in methodology on the final poll.

  34. Firefox says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:08 pm
    (and most of your earlier posts this arvo)
    …………
    When you’re handing out at a polling booth, are you one of those who feels obliged to convince other party volunteers of the error of their ways?
    Does it make the time go faster?
    When I used to organise branch booth rosters, I used to have an informal list of branch members not to be allowed near real people/voters.

  35. Are the Teals ready to take on the Fossil Fuel lobby that’s captured the major parties?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/19/this-election-are-the-teals-ready-to-take-on-the-fossil-fuel-lobby-thats-captured-the-major-parties

    Scientists say that the LNP’s policies align with global warming of well over three degrees. In other words, according to the best available science, Scott Morrison’s policies mean catastrophic heatwaves becoming yearly events – and the end of the already-bleaching Great Barrier Reef. As for Labor, its plan equates to a two-degree increase, which would bring intense heat events every three years (rather than annually). Under Albanese, the reef will still die – though perhaps at a slightly slower rate.

    For those covering the election as a horse race, the similarity between the parties’ platforms effectively neutralises global warming as a controversy, which perhaps explains why journalists don’t bring to climate the ferocity we’ve seen unleashed over brain freezes and other gaffes.

    But if we’re to avoid the normalisation of the disaster, the coverage of the environment needs far more mongrel.

    In a remarkable recent investigation, the Guardian revealed the biggest fossil fuel companies around the world to be planning vast expansions of their operations, allocating an astonishing $103m each day for the rest of the decade to opening fresh sources of oil and gas.

    As Damian Carrington and Matthew Taylor write in this report, “these firms are in effect placing multibillion-dollar bets against humanity halting global heating,” with their investments only becoming profitable if governments fail to quickly bring down emissions.

    …

    the UN secretary general, António Guterres, has repeatedly called on political leaders to cancel any future coal projects as the necessary first step to avoiding disaster. At Cop26, over 40 countries pledged an end to investment in new coal power generation and agreed to wind back the use of coal during the 2030s.

    The Morrison government, naturally, refused to sign – a stance that Albanese subsequently backed. In fact, both parties now promise to support new coalmines, something entirely at odds with the recommendations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an intergovernmental body of the UN.

    Of course, with global warming now so apparent, every politician must pay at least lip service to addressing it. Hence the need to hold their feet to the fire.

    …

    To their credit, [Zoe] Daniel and the other independents have put climate front and centre in their campaigns. Yet the teal project depends on presenting a platform sufficiently moderate for voters who once might have plumped for a Liberal wet. As Allegra Spender, the independent running for Wentworth explained, “[this seat] is not radical and I am not a radical at all.”

    On that basis, the veteran journalist Barrie Cassidy tweeted about the prospect of “inserting women from the sensible centre” into the political process.

    That would make more sense had the Australian climate debate been polarised between two equally misguided extremes. But that’s not the problem at all. On the contrary, the major parties stand shoulder-to-shoulder behind commitments at odds with what the IPCC says we require.

    We’ve had plenty of “sensible centrism” – climate action now depends on a willingness to fight. On paper, the teals’ pledges look much better than those offered by the majors. They’d theoretically allow parts of the Great Barrier Reef to survive.

    But implementing their program would mean taking on the fossil fuel lobby that’s captured the major parties. It would mean a battle against the corporate giants that are betting on humanity’s failure.

    Are the teals prepared for that kind of struggle? Maybe that’s a rude question. But in the last days before a crucial climate election, we can’t worry about being polite.

    In a decade’s time, no one will care whether Albanese could recite all six points of a Labor policy. But, unless something changes, the blackened, dead coral off the coast of Queensland will provide a permanent reminder of the choices made in 2022.

    So are the Teals ready? I believe they are. Will they succeed? Who knows. But with both major parties captive to the Fossil Fuel lobby, it has to be worth a try.

  36. FMD. The mind of Credlin.

    The main impact of compulsory super has been the creation of a vast superannuation industry that keeps Labor very well funded.

    Go to The Australian if you want ‘more’ .

  39. poroti @ #786 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:32 pm

    FMD. The mind of Credlin.

    The main impact of compulsory super has been the creation of a vast superannuation industry that keeps Labor very well funded.

    Go to The Australian if you want ‘more’ .

    The problem with super is the lack of transparency from the funds re investment in fossil fuels.

    How many workers know they’re propping up the fossil fuel industry via their superfund ..?

  40. Rex Douglas @ #789 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:37 pm

    poroti @ #786 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:32 pm

    FMD. The mind of Credlin.

    The main impact of compulsory super has been the creation of a vast superannuation industry that keeps Labor very well funded.

    Go to The Australian if you want ‘more’ .

    The problem with super is the lack of transparency from the funds re investment in fossil fuels.

    How many workers know they’re propping up the fossil fuel industry via their superfund ..?

    People investing in companies via the stock market are not “propping them up”. That isn’t how share ownership works.

  41. John Howard says you can’t send a message to the LNP by voting independent. So how does he propose people send their message?

  45. The Liberals have an $80bn deficit this year. Presumably Labor could have come in with a figure under this if they were serious.

    The truth is Labor has decided if $80bn is ok under the Libs, they can get away with more.

    The problem for Labor is the constituency or people who could decide the election is people who don’t trust them to manage the budget.

  47. Firefox @ #744 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:08 pm

    Well lest I be accused of spreading misleading info from the Greens, in the interests of fairness, allow me to share QLD Labor’s position on the matter – branding and all. The authorisation is down the bottom if you’re wondering…

    Unlike some people, who think only one step (like, say, “coal bad”), I’m actually aware of the complexity of the issue. Coal isn’t inherently bad – some of it is downright necessary if we want to achieve net zero without completely destroying the country, since switching to renewables requires, for example, steel, which requires metallurgical coal. Ceasing all metallurgical coal extraction would slow down our transition to renewables.

    And as it turns out, at the least, most of the new mines are metallurgical coal mines. For example, this one. I can’t check to confirm all of them, but the point is, the Greens are overshooting when they demand no new coal mines, rather than no new thermal coal mines.

  48. ltep says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:42 pm
    Is it 2007 again? Why so much Howard?

    I’m guessing they think he’s more popular than Morrison. And not quite as demented.

  49. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:15 pm

    So, why didn’t you mention the Libs didn’t included the cost of a wage increase in their costings either …?

    ___________
    Cos the Liberals haven’t said they support a 25% wage increase for aged care workers, Labor does.

  50. Lars Von Trier @ #795 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:42 pm

    The Liberals have an $80bn deficit this year. Presumably Labor could have come in with a figure under this if they were serious.

    The truth is Labor has decided if $80bn is ok under the Libs, they can get away with more.

    The problem for Labor is the constituency or people who could decide the election is people who don’t trust them to manage the budget.

    What’s the real Lib deficit if there’s a FWC wage rise for aged care workers et al ..?

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