The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
whilst i have no position in any labor-green war, i think attitudes like “In a minority government, the Greens are going to be a fair way down the consultation list” are pretty misguided, even for an ALP majority government – assuming they want to pass any legislation in the senate?
in terms of east coast bellwethers, the above list (I think from Parra Mod) is great… if looking for a marker that the Coalition cannot win then agree Reid & Chisolm are critical, beyond that would you agree with the following:
if looking for a solidish ALP majority then maybe Robertson, Braddon, Brisbane?
And for a stonking majority we start to think of Bennelong or some other Qld seats
on a theoretical anarchic side might be the Coalition hanging onto the Reid/Chisolms but losing a bunch of teals… i’m guessing there will be a correlation between lots of teal gains and lots of ALP gains on the “visceral ScoMo sux” prevalence
Boinzo @ #798 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:44 pm
Sorry. But I can’t resist. What if they’re right?
Lars Von Trier @ #799 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:44 pm
No, the Libs haven’t costed in a wage increase because they can’t predict the outcome of a FWC decision. Labor stated the same.
You should stop the misrepresentations.
Boinzo @ #798 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:44 pm
They think a Prime Minister who was so unpopular that he not only lost the election but also lost his own seat is more popular than Morrison?
Actually, I think they are probably right.
PhoenixRED
This reminds me of a great skit on an Andrew Denton elections special c. 1990.
A young woman is bemoaning that there is no one she can really vote for:
“The Liberal candidate is our localised car salesman, the Labor candidate is my old high school maths teacher, and the Democrat is that weird lady who lives on the edge often and tells fortunes.”
Plibersek is in Leichhardt claiming that the seat is well within reach for Labor.
Voted prepoll in Coffs today (Page/Cowper). Massive UAP signs plastered everywhere. Two or three HTV volunteers for all Nat/ALP/UAP/Grn/Caz4Cowper but didn’t seen any PHON. All oldies taking Nat, all 20-50 yo males taking Nat. Not much interest in the ALP or green HTV. Not many women under 60 voting (was around 3pm so maybe doing school pickups). Hopefully not indicative of on-the-day voters…
meher baba:
A suggestion of three Australian films that might meet your criteria are 2003’s Gettin’ Square, 2014’s Paper Planes, and (although it falls just outside your 20 year frame) 1999’s Siam Sunset.
GlenO:
“And as it turns out, at the least, most of the new mines are metallurgical coal mines. For example, this one. I can’t check to confirm all of them, but the point is, the Greens are overshooting when they demand no new coal mines, rather than no new thermal coal mines.”
Yep. This. We really really need to keep mining metallurgical coal until Fire-Fox invents a way to make a non-steel wind turbine.
Also afaik the ad is from the 2020 Qld campaign and is being presented like it’s the federal ALPs work in the current campaign. Annoying slight of hand at best. Dirty lie at worst.
“For example, this one.”
***
Don’t forget about this one, either…
For those who are unsure who the QLD Premier is shaking hands with, that is Gautam Adani, the founder and chairman of Adani.
Well bloody said.
Grime @ #758 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:17 pm
I’m pretty sure the state government gets to “choose” the candidate, but restricted to being someone from the same party as the one who won the seat at the time that they won it. So basically, the Queensland government could refuse to let Latham take the seat in Queensland. I would expect the government wouldn’t permit Latham, but they would be very clear that it’s because he’s not a Queenslander, rather than any other reason, and instruct One Nation to choose someone who doesn’t currently serve a different state government.
Boy I wish the ALP were closing more hard on tens of billions on submarines down the drain… this is right up there in terms of power when it comes to negating any trend amongst supposed economic management waverers out there…
simple drumbeat stuff like this plus jobkeeper wastage… i’d want that front of consciousness this week and am not so sure it is as much as it should be
Evan @ #742 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:04 pm
Just checked about 5-10 minutes ago and saw that she was still SUS, but when I went back after checking around to see if I could find any news she was back on at 7.00.
Morrison just confirming he will not allow the Murugappan family to return to their home in Biloela
Player One says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:34 pm
Sir Henry Parkes @ #769 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:17 pm
Actually Player One, I’m a little bored with you.
You know the answer to that? Just scroll by, instead of adding yourself to the usual pile-on.
________________________________________________________
I will gladly follow the only useful advice you have given. There is no point wasting time with a Tory like you.
Interesting, the Liberal talking head (name of David Alexander, no idea who he is) on ABC Afternoon Briefing, just said the best the LNP can hope for is a hung Parliament.
Just call me The Silver Fire-Fox.
Expat Follower says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:51 pm
Boy I wish the ALP were closing more hard on tens of billions on submarines down the drain… this is right up there in terms of power when it comes to negating any trend amongst supposed economic management waverers out there…
simple drumbeat stuff like this plus jobkeeper wastage… i’d want that front of consciousness this week and am not so sure it is as much as it should be
_____________________________
Marles has made it clear he supports Aukus – so hard to see how Labor can have it’s nuclear subs and eat them too?
Pretty much all the Greens carry on around Adani was a total sack of hot air. Wondering why they aren’t campaigning on Stop Adani this time? Wondering where Larissa’s ear-rings went?
Well. Turns out that the ALPs position of letting the market stop the mine turned out pretty ok. It’s gone from being 60m tons a year to 10m and likely to zero in the next year or 2.
So Fire-Fox can post as many handshakes with Mr Adani as he wants.
See:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/09/after-adani-whatever-happened-to-queenslands-galilee-basin-coal-boom
Any thoughts on why Morrison was in Werriwa this afternoon?
Lars Von Trier @ #821 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:01 pm
Supposedly good internal polling. Other possibility is a campaign tactic to try keep the ALP and media second guessing about how well the libs are doing.
@Lars – it fits the core strategy Morrison’s had from get go – targeting outer suburban/regional ALP seats on 5%-ish and below.
Given vote churn… a seat like Werriwa is plausible if everything goes right for them.
When will Ipsos be released? Tonight?
Lars Von Trier @ #818 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:01 pm
If they lose seats they would need to win back other seats – so targeting 5% makes sense.
“ Any thoughts on why Morrison was in Werriwa this afternoon?”
Looking for an Under 9s soccer game?
If ScoMo is campaigning in Werriwa and Albo is campaigning in North Sydney is the 2022 election going to be a normal election?
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:01 pm
Any thoughts on why Morrison was in Werriwa this afternoon?
中华人民共和国
He is so toxic they won’t want him near Marginals. Simple. Just look at his negative net sats.
“Pretty much all the Greens carry on around Adani was a total sack of hot air. Wondering why they aren’t campaigning on Stop Adani this time? Wondering where Larissa’s ear-rings went?
Well. Turns out that the ALPs position of letting the market stop the mine turned out pretty ok. It’s gone from being 60m tons a year to 10m and likely to zero in the next year or 2.
So Fire-Fox can post as many handshakes with Mr Adani as he wants.”
***
Oh yeah, nothing to worry about at all. Nothing to see here, just a far right nutcase giving QLD Labor the big thumbs up for destroying the planet…
Makes you sick, doesn’t it. It should.
The loose unit says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 4:53 pm
“Morrison just confirming he will not allow the Murugappan family to return to their home in Biloela”
What a petty bastard! Hopefully the electorate will not allow Morrison to return to the lodge!
Diplomatic posting to Nauru?
Ch 10 news with PvO quite fair for Labor. On the unemployment rate, PvO said twice that people on one hour a week were counted as employed.
So Albo is using Rudd’s tactics in 2007 – 20 marginal seat blitz
citizen @ #830 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:08 pm
https://youtu.be/m_V2cYwDOa8
Can someone explain to me why/how pollsters give one primary vote figure for the LNP coalition. Except for Queensland, the Liberals and Nats are different parties with different constituents. Where there is no incumbent LNP member they even compete against each other. The only thing the Libs and Nats have in common is a desire to keep Labor out of office.
So how can their primary vote figures be combined into one number? And what does the number really mean. The pollsters must know who are Lib voters and who are Nats so why not publish the figure.
I have a feeling, without any evidence, that the Nats primary vote has probably remained fairly stable, so any fall in the combined number would have to come from the Libs side.
Has anybody done a seat by seat analysis over a period of time to track the movement in actual primary votes for the Libs, Nats and Labor?
That Balance of Power ad for the Greens was very impressive.
Firefox. Yes, it makes me sick looking at Canavan. He’s a tool.
I didn’t say there was NO coal from Adani. I said it was 1/6th of what was initially predicted and that it would turn into none very soon. I also gave you a link that shows that none of the other Charmichael leases have progressed at all.
Surely that outcome should bring even you some cheer.
The libs and Nats merged in Qld
Betting on Deves, which was suspended earlier, has resumed on Sportsbet. She’s $7, while Zali Steggall is $1.08.
Matt 31 – what happened to No Surrender? This looks more like beer and sandwiches at the No 10 flat Harold Wilson style?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-61493880
Credit to Peter Van Onselan, he’s been pretty fair and balanced these last 6 weeks on Ten News, probably because his good mate Christian Porter is no longer in politics, but anyway I’ll take PVO over that idiot Toolman on Channel 9 and Channel 7/otherwise known as Channel Liberal Party.
Andrew Probyn on the ABC hasn’t exactly covered himself with glory either, but he’s hardly the worst on the national broadcaster, that title goes to Greg Jennett/Fran Kelly/Lisa Miller/Stan Grant/Jane Norman.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/19/voting-covid-19-phone-cut-off/
200,000 Australians with COVID-19 risk not voting after phone option cut off
LNP is practicing voter supression.
FWIW Malcolm Mackerras’ predictions for Saturday.
https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/my-final-predictions-for-saturdays-election/
Aren’t we Sandgropers the lucky ones. We get Bullshit Man for the final day. Pearce, Hasluck, Swan and Labor held Cowan are the electorates drawing the short straws.
Time for Labor to blitz the place with reminders of the shit he threw at WA during the pandemic.
@Docantk:
Coffs pre-poll voting centre in 2019:
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-24310-33739.htm
Primary votes Nationals 48.4, Oakeshott 24.2, Labor 13.8, Greens 5, UAP 3, Fred Nile 2.4, Animal Justice 2.1, other independent 1.2
Informal 6.6
2PP Nationals 57.4 Oakeshott 42.6
That was only very slightly better for the Nats than the overall vote in the seat.
With no Oakeshott I would have expected the Nats to absolutely shit it in in Cowper, notwithstanding the presence of a Teal / “Voices of” independent in Cowper this time, who I haven’t heard a great deal about in campaign chatter.
Cat
“Not happening. Prayers are for those who believe in ineffectual solutions. I believe in Medical Science.”
====
I guess we won’t be seeing you during visitors hours at the Memorial George W Bush and Pauline Hanson Thoughts and Prayers Hospital.
If you could just send at least 1 (one) T&P by Fedex, we need to administer a dose of 239.69024667 T&Ps for any virus to realise man is superior to nature (obvs), and crawl away in shame. It is written!
Pauline Hanson (patient#665) is all strapped up and waiting.
At least no more Liberal ads on commercial TV tonight, that’s a relief.
Oh well, I imagine the release of IPSOS will set off more craziness on Poll Bludger, more negativity from some Laborites, more of Mundo and his doom and gloom etc
I think we’ll need the steadier regulars to keep some order, led by the mighty Upnorth/Beaglieboy/BTR Producer/Greg Rudd/Simmo888/and a bit from yours truly too.
A covid positive unvaccinated Pauline Hanson on Sky saying she is strong but looking like she should be in intensive care.
“FWIW Malcolm Mackerras’ predictions for Saturday.”
Mackerras predicting ALP majority victory throws me into more of a panic than declining polls TBH. His article predicting Liberal victory in the SA election was a classic of the genre.
Pauline will be OK. Clive Palmer sent her a course of ivermectin.
“Coal isn’t inherently bad – some of it is downright necessary if we want to achieve net zero without completely destroying the country, since switching to renewables requires, for example, steel, which requires metallurgical coal. Ceasing all metallurgical coal extraction would slow down our transition to renewables.
And as it turns out, at the least, most of the new mines are metallurgical coal mines. For example, this one. I can’t check to confirm all of them, but the point is, the Greens are overshooting when they demand no new coal mines, rather than no new thermal coal mines.”
So firstly whether or not coal is necessary its use is just bad. Bad. Bad. Bad. It is beyond doubt.
Secondly in economies that are ‘smarter than fucking stupid’ they are transitioning to low carbon and green steel production. You know what is the only problem: it costs more and not all users are motivated to pay more if there is a cheap dirty option.
Now the green hydrogen supply chain is in its early days and it will come down massively in cost, pipes will be converted to transport it, wind farms built to create it.
You know what does NOT aid green and low carbon steel – new coal mines keeping prices of dirty steel down.
And it isn’t the greens that originate the fucking urgent necessaity of these things it is the fucking scientists who fucking know what they are talking about.
Absolute idiotic rubbish of the stupidest order. Tucker Carlson fucking stupid levels of crazy bullshit.